（原标题：财报超预期市值却跳水，中芯国际怎么了？） 作者 | 丁卯 编辑 | 黄绎达 2025年8月7日，国产晶圆代工龙头中芯国际发布了一份略超预期的二季度财务报告。 根据港股财报披露，尽管受到生产波动性和产品结构变化的影响，使得公司的收入和毛利维持下滑趋势，但幅度相对上个季度明显放缓，且远好 于公司的业绩指引和市场预期。 但市场似乎对这份略超预期的财报表现并不买账。周五当天（8月8日），中芯国际港股严重下挫，最终阴跌8.2%，同日，A股也下跌了4.3%。 那么，中芯国际此次财报的质量究竟如何？市场的担忧在哪里？目前公司是否存在高估风险？ 2025年第二季度，中芯国际实现营业收入22.1亿美元，较去年同期增长16.2%，比一季度环比下滑1.7%，环比增速高于上季度的业绩指引和市场预 期。 分产品看，二季度12英寸晶圆产品仍然是中芯国际主要的收入来源，但8英寸的贡献度在回暖。根据港股财报披露，本季度8英寸晶圆产品的收入 为4.99亿美元，环比增长6.6%，收入占比23.9%；12英寸晶圆产品收入15.9亿美元，环比下滑4.8%，收入占比76.1%，较上个季度下降2个pct。 分地区看，二季度中国区贡献了超八成的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the establishment of a joint innovation laboratory between Tuokene Technology and Geely Automobile Research Institute to address the bottlenecks in the COC industry and promote the development of automotive optical materials [1][2] - Tuokene Technology has achieved continuous stable production of COC with a newly built production line of 3,000 tons per year, overcoming challenges in the entire supply chain from raw material supply to processing [2] - The collaboration aims to fill the technological gap in high-end optical materials for vehicles, which is crucial for the "visual system" in smart cars, impacting user experience and driving safety [2][3] Group 2 - Tuokene Technology's products, such as "TAMT," have achieved domestic substitution in various fields including optical lenses, biomedical applications, and smart cockpits [2] - The partnership with Shanghai Haishun New Material Co., Ltd. in the life sciences sector highlights the importance of technological breakthroughs and industry chain collaboration [2] - The use of COC in pharmaceutical packaging addresses issues such as low barrier material usage and poor stability, ensuring the safety and stability of drug packaging [3]

吉莱微是一家专业从事功率半导体芯片及器件设计、制造、封测、销售的高新技术企业，其产品广泛应用于消费电 子、工业控制、安防监控、通信设备、汽车电子等领域。吉莱微目前拥有多条晶圆生产线（4英寸、5英寸、6英寸 （在建）），配套兼容4英寸、5英寸、6英寸和8英寸芯片封装测试的生产线，主要产品包括功率半导体芯片和功率半 导体器件。 本次收购完成后，综艺股份将进入功率半导体芯片及器件的研发、生产及销售领域，进一步优化产业链布局，增强在 功率半导体领域的竞争力，契合国产替代趋势。此外，吉莱微的IDM能力也将为综艺股份带来技术储备与人才支撑， 加速公司在集成电路核心赛道上的布局与突破。 交易对方已出具承诺，吉莱微在2025年至2028年的净利润将分别达到2,600万元、3,300万元、4,100万元和5,000万元。 若吉莱微实际净利润未达到承诺净利润的80%，业绩承诺方将向综艺股份进行补偿。 本次重大资产重组构成重大资产重组，但不构成关联交易，也不构成重组上市。交易完成后，综艺股份的控股股东及 实际控制人不变，仍为南通综艺投资有限公司及昝圣达先生。 综艺股份表示，本次收购将提升公司的营业收入及盈利能力，增强公司的抗风险能 ...

Group 1: AI Application Company Valuation - ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is more suitable as a valuation anchor for high-growth AI businesses, with valuations for high-growth AI startups generally around 50 times ARR or higher [1][6][7] - Examples of valuations include OpenAI and Anthropic at approximately 40-60 times ARR, while AI tools like Runway and ElevenLabs are valued at 55 times and 40 times ARR respectively [6][7] - The assumption for a 50 times ARR valuation is based on a projected compound annual growth rate of 100% for ARR over the next three years and a steady-state net profit margin of 30% [7] Group 2: 瑞达期货 (Ruida Futures) - The company has a solid brokerage, asset management, and risk management foundation, expected to benefit from the development of the futures industry, leading to performance growth [2][8] - The brokerage business is robust, with commission rates above the industry average, and the asset management CTA scale and performance are industry-leading [8][9] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a year-on-year increase of 11.2% in net profit to 425 million yuan [2][8] Group 3: 快手-W (Kuaishou-W) - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 17.7 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan, and 24.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.5x, 14.8x, and 12.7x [3][12] - Kuaishou focuses on AI-driven technology and continuous product upgrades, providing diverse services in entertainment, online marketing, e-commerce, and local life [12][13] - The competitive landscape in the short video industry is stable, with Kuaishou and Douyin holding over 60% market share [13] Group 4: 药石科技 (YaoShi Technology) - The company achieved revenue of 920 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.48%, while net profit decreased by 26.54% [4][15] - The CDMO business continues to grow, with new orders increasing by 19.88% year-on-year [15][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.931 billion yuan, 2.287 billion yuan, and 2.747 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.4%, 18.4%, and 20.1% respectively [17]

交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团或持续受益于关键 半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026年2.1倍的市净率， 维持"中性"评级。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团 或持续受益于关键半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026 年2.1倍的市净率，维持"中性"评级。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 ...

中国银河证券指出，"AI+"产业发展加速，成为未来十年的重点发展领域。全力支持新质生产力的发展是中国未来10-15年的主要目标之一，AI对于新质生 产力的推动分为三个层次：①各行业与AI结合，利用AI推动传统行业效率和降低运营成本；②AI参与度提升后，主动推动创新和生成新业务模式；③AI会 使得跨行业联动加速，最终实现多行业、上下游以及软硬件的整合。 消息面上，8月12日，华为在上海召开题为《AI崛起，开启智慧金融新篇章》的2025金融Al推理应用落地与发展论坛。论坛上，华为将发布Al推理加速黑科 技，这项成果或能降低中国AI推理对HBM(高带宽内存)技术的依赖，提升国内AI大模型推理性能，完善中国Al推理生态的关键部分。 此前，8月6日，华为宣布，CANN全面开源开放，Mind系列应用使能套件及工具链全面开源，支持用户自主的深度挖潜和自定义开发。业内人士指出， CANN是华为异腾Al编程语言，可对标CUDA之于英伟达，是高效调用昇腾的关键。开源的目的是激励开发者使用CANN，创造算子丰富华为生态，CANN 算子生态的丰富会提升其开发的效率，降低人力成本，激发更多的业务需求。 8月12日，重点布局在国产AI产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huitong Energy plans to acquire a 7.43% stake in Xinghua Chip (Shaoxing) Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. through equity transfer and capital increase, marking its first direct investment in a semiconductor company as part of its strategy to enter the semiconductor and intelligent manufacturing sectors [1][4][6] Group 1: Company Background and Business Adjustments - Huitong Energy, originally a state-owned enterprise, shifted its focus from light industry machinery to wind power and later to real estate, but has recently divested its real estate business, recovering 616 million yuan in cash [2] - The company currently engages in light asset businesses such as property leasing, property services, and home decoration, with cash reserves reaching 1.46 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment in Semiconductor Sector - In April, Huitong Energy's subsidiary Huide Xinyuan invested 30 million yuan in the Yuanhe Puhua Industrial Fund, a well-known semiconductor investment institution, marking the beginning of its foray into the semiconductor and intelligent manufacturing sectors [3] - The investment in Xinghua Chip represents a significant step for Huitong Energy in the semiconductor industry, aligning with national policies encouraging domestic production capabilities [6] Group 3: Focus on Photomask Industry - Photomasks, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, are a critical component in the photolithography process, with a high market concentration dominated by foreign players [5] - Xinghua Chip, founded by Dr. Zhang Rujing, aims to fill domestic gaps in the photomask industry, with plans to achieve full production capacity of 3,000 photomasks per month after the second phase of its production line [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent performance of the A-share market has been strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25% during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025. This contrasts with the underperformance of the Hang Seng Tech Index, which lagged behind despite the global AI industry upgrade catalyzed by the release of GPT-5 [1][2][7]. - The divergence in performance between the A-share market and the Hang Seng Tech Index is attributed to different driving logic in the two markets. The Hang Seng Tech Index is under pressure from liquidity constraints due to the linked exchange rate system and a strong US dollar, which has led to capital repatriation and downward pressure on valuations of major stocks like Tencent and Alibaba [2][16]. - The report notes that the recent trend of capital flow has shifted from technology growth sectors to cyclical sectors, with significant inflows into defensive sectors such as banking and pharmaceuticals. This shift has left the AI sector within the Hang Seng Tech Index in a "vacuum period" lacking event-driven catalysts [2][16]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the relative weakness of the Hang Seng Tech Index is not expected to be a long-term trend. It points out that the current dynamic PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.87, which is at the 23.28% percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable valuation [3][17]. - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector and the Hang Seng Tech Index, as the fundamentals are expected to improve, and the core assets in the banking sector are likely to benefit first from this improvement [3][17]. - The report emphasizes that the recent strong performance of the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at new industrialization, particularly in sectors like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, which have received enhanced financial support [1][7].

家人们，昨夜外围市场又给咱上眼药了！道指哐当砸下200点，纳指盘中创新高却尾盘翻绿，纽约期金更是暴跌2.58%——这过山车坐得比海盗船还刺激。 但咱A股老司机都懂：外围越乱，越要盯紧国内政策底牌！今儿帮主就掰开三张关键牌，带你看透市场脉络！ 一、外围风险：美股的"黄灯"与黄金的"假摔" 1. 美股高悬两把刀 • 估值警报拉响：91%基金经理高喊美股"太贵"，这比例创2001年来峰值，泡沫刺破风险骤升。 • CPI定生死：今夜若美国核心CPI冲上3.1%（预期3.0%），美联储9月降息美梦直接泡汤，科技股或遭血洗。 2. 黄金暴跌有猫腻 特朗普嘴上豁免关税，却放任海关放风"征39%进口税"，政策反复逼得金价单日蒸发2.58%。但注意了：3350美元是铁底，国内金店跟跌5元/克恰是低吸机 会！ 二、A股破局三张牌：政策、技术、资金暗线 • 杠杆资金豪赌：融资客狂扫半导体（2个月净买61.8亿），阿石创（靶材龙头） 布林带突破上轨，机构连吃3日！ 三、今日生存指南：盯三件事，做两动作 1. 中美谈判终极审判 今日是关税协定最后期限！若谈崩（概率30%），立刻减仓光伏、锂电出口股；若展期（概率50%），猛干半导体、机 ...