8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理 事席位。 资料配图，动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 据媒体最新分析， 此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任 命。 特朗普明确表示， "与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。 这被市场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束 后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi指出， 对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着 美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音 ，更重要的是，它预示着特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并 为未来可能 出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔 。 一场"过渡性"任命： 争取时间，保留选择 特朗普 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月8日丨荷兰国际集团经济学家Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，在特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰 填补美联储理事会空缺后，美元仅小幅走弱。米兰最近因降息问题批评过美联储，并呼吁对美联储进行 全面改革，他将暂时填补这一职位，直到明年1月任期届满。有报道称，美联储理事沃勒是接替美联储 主席鲍威尔的热门人选，这一消息也抵消了这一影响。与另一位潜在候选人凯文•哈塞特相比，他在降 息问题上的立场更为温和。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 reached 226,000, slightly above market expectations and previous values, indicating a weak employment market [1] - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, with a dovish stance likely to influence future monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts due to recent weak economic data [1] - Technical indicators show a sideways trend for gold, with resistance at $3424 and support at $3360 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, with potential U.S.-Russia talks scheduled, which may reduce supply disruption risks and could lead to the lifting of secondary sanctions on Russia [2] - Despite the easing tensions, U.S. oil demand remains high, supported by a significant drop in EIA crude oil inventory data [2] - Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in official crude oil prices indicates a positive outlook for future oil demand, limiting potential price declines [2] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $65 and support at $62.51 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The nomination of Stephen Moore and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair are likely to put pressure on the U.S. dollar [3] - Market expectations indicate a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with risks of further declines towards the 97.92 level [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance recently, with support found at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index is in an upward trend, with potential for further gains if it breaks above previous highs [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have been relatively stagnant following a significant drop at the end of July, entering a phase of technical correction [6] - The market remains under bearish pressure, with prices fluctuating between $4.28 and $4.44 [6]

美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事 Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理事席位。 据媒体最新分析，此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢 得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任命。 特朗普明确表示，"与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。这被市 场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。野村证券外汇策略师 Yusuke Miyairi指出，对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音，更重要的是，它预示着 特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并为未来可能出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔。 一场"过渡性"任命：争取时间，保留选择 特朗普此次提名Miran，其核心在于"过渡"二字。Miran的任期仅持 ...

Core Insights - The US stock market has shifted from a continuous upward trend to a wait-and-see phase, influenced by recent trade agreements and mixed economic signals [3][4][5] - The technology sector has shown strong performance, particularly driven by major companies like Apple and Amazon, while traditional sectors like energy and finance have struggled [5][12] Market Performance - As of August 7, the S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 2.6% over the last 10 trading days, while the Nasdaq 100 index has performed even better with a rise of about 4.3% [4][6] - The recent performance of the Nasdaq is largely attributed to positive developments from tech giants, particularly in AI and manufacturing initiatives [5][12] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has outperformed, with significant contributions from companies like Apple, which announced a $100 billion investment in US manufacturing, leading to a 5% increase in its stock price [5][12] - Other AI-related companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have also reported strong earnings, contributing to their stock price increases [5][12] Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll data revealed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, leading to concerns about a cooling labor market [12] - The downward revision of previous months' job growth by a total of 258,000 jobs has heightened fears of recession or stagflation [12] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have left interest rates unchanged, but there is speculation about potential rate cuts in September, influenced by inflation and tariff uncertainties [9][15] - The market's expectation for a rate cut has fluctuated, with the probability dropping to 42% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][15]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Views - The over - expected US initial jobless claims data, combined with the weak domestic economic growth and employment pressure, has intensified market concerns about the US economy, leading to more bets on the Fed's dovish turn. The Fed's personnel changes have also strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's easing. As a result, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, exceeding market expectations. The cooling trend of labor data continues, and the market is trading on the loose expectation, which strongly supports the precious metal prices. Trump has selected Stephen Milan to replace a Fed governor, and the US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed chairman. There are also rumors about potential candidates. Geopolitically, Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.28 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, a change of 0.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 785.44 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,163.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,258.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 326,856 lots, and the open interest was 378,070 lots. The night - session closed at 9,241 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.23%, up 1 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, down 2 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 7, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions decreased by 180 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 234,653 lots, a decrease of 2.03% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 958 lots, and the short positions decreased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 471,384 lots, a decrease of 11.49% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 959.09 tons, up 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 7, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 9.88 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 646.37 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.79, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.01, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 31,738 kg, an increase of 8.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 252,338 kg, an increase of 8.96% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,114 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,040 kg [7]. Outlook - Gold: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 775 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8,900 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the political dynamics and implications for monetary policy independence [1][2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of a "shadow chairman," face legal challenges due to the established independence of the Fed [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that past presidents have struggled to directly intervene in Fed policies without facing significant backlash [13][14]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Market Expectations - The political pressure from Trump may not successfully lead to immediate rate cuts, as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members remain cautious [8][9]. - Market expectations are shifting, with investors pricing in potential rate cuts after Powell's term ends, reflecting concerns over the Fed's independence [8][12]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Leadership - Several candidates for the "shadow chairman" position are discussed, with varying degrees of dovishness compared to Powell, but none are expected to fully comply with Trump's demands [6][7][8]. - The influence of these candidates on future monetary policy remains uncertain, as the ultimate decision-making power lies with Powell and the current FOMC [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to lower long-term rates may backfire if it leads to increased inflation expectations, which could result in higher long-term rates instead [9][10]. - The potential for significant changes in the Fed's operational framework raises concerns about the long-term implications for monetary policy and economic stability [11][12]. Group 5: Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to consider the current environment where rate cuts are expected to be limited before Powell's departure, with more substantial cuts anticipated afterward [16][17]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) presents opportunities for investors to position themselves accordingly [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Australian housing prices are experiencing significant increases despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the cash rate at 3.85% since early July, marking the sixth consecutive month of price rises [2][5]. Housing Price Trends - The median house price in Australia has reached AUD 844,000, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.3% [2]. - Sydney's median house price has surpassed AUD 1.5 million, with a 1.9% increase noted in the first half of 2025 [4][7]. - Melbourne's house prices have risen by 0.4% to AUD 952,000, with a cumulative increase of 2.8% this year [5]. - Darwin has recorded the highest price increase among capital cities, with a 7.7% rise in the first half of 2025 [5]. Rental Market Dynamics - National rental prices have increased by 1.1% over the last three months, with all capital cities experiencing rental hikes [5]. - The rental market remains tight due to a shortage of available rental properties, contributing to rising rents [5]. Interest Rate Outlook - The cash rate has decreased from 4.35% to 3.85% this year, with expectations of further cuts, potentially down to 3.6% [6][7]. - Market predictions indicate a 98% probability of a rate cut during the upcoming Reserve Bank meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in the following months [7]. Affordability Challenges - The average house price in Australia is now nearly 14 times the average annual salary, creating significant affordability issues [4][11]. - In Sydney, the income required to afford the median house price is approximately AUD 300,000, while in Melbourne it is around AUD 185,000 [7][11]. - Approximately 83% of Australian suburbs are deemed unaffordable for households earning the average pre-tax income of AUD 100,000 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The potential successors to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are under close scrutiny by investors and strategists, with market reactions likely influenced by the perceived alignment of these candidates with President Trump's views [1][4]. Candidate Analysis - Christopher Waller is seen as the top candidate for the Fed chair position, and his appointment could lead to positive market reactions due to continuity in leadership [1][3][5]. - Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are also considered potential nominees, but their close ties to Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to negative market responses [1][9]. Market Expectations - Investors expect the next Fed chair to be a loyal supporter of Trump with a dovish stance, which could influence market dynamics [2]. - The market's reaction may vary based on how closely candidates are perceived to align with Trump's policies, with a stronger alignment likely resulting in negative impacts on U.S. assets [4][9]. Policy Continuity - Waller's support for immediate rate cuts and his flexible approach during his tenure at the Fed suggest he could maintain the current management style, which may be welcomed by the market [6][5]. - Analysts believe that if Hassett is nominated, it could lead to rising long-term Treasury yields and a sell-off in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence [9]. Independence Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a central concern for investors, with potential nominees' connections to the White House being a significant factor in market reactions [4][10]. - If a nominee is perceived as lacking experience in the Fed or economic fields, it could lead to the most significant market disruptions and further questions about the Fed's independence [10].

Market Developments - The U.S. President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board to fill the vacancy left by the sudden resignation of Adrienne Kugler [1] - The White House signed an executive order allowing 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets for better returns and diversification [1] - The International Chamber of Commerce stated that the new U.S. tariff measures significantly increase complexity for businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and called for clearer execution guidelines [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly above market expectations [2] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported a 1.9% month-on-month decline in industrial output for June, the lowest level since May 2020, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariffs [3] - Germany's exports in June increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by strong demand from China and the EU, ending a two-month decline [3] - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year due to ongoing economic challenges [3] - Japan's government revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and persistent inflation [5] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 224.48 points to 43,968.64, a decline of 0.51%; the S&P 500 dropped by 5.06 points to 6,340.00, a decrease of 0.08%; while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 73.27 points to 21,242.70, an increase of 0.35% [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.44% to $3,482.70 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.66% to $38.53 per ounce [7] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude futures down by $0.47 to $63.88 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down by $0.46 to $66.43 per barrel [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.23% to 98.400, with the euro trading at 1.1622 against the dollar and the pound at 1.3410 [8] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1777 against the dollar, appreciating by 123 basis points from the previous trading day [8]