每周思考总第625期 《 先控制仓位，再等政策 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月20日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 上周市场全周窄幅震荡略涨，沪深300指数涨幅0.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.19%，中证500指数周 涨幅-0.37%。银行非银板块独立走强对指数维稳起到主要作用，但市场整体情绪始终未有提振。 基本面上，中国三月经济数据良好但持续性仍有较大挑战。 国内方面，上周三月经济运行、货 币供应、进出口等多项数据陆续披露，整体数据显示经济平稳反弹，但其中仍反应出脉冲抢出口的或 有风险，如三月进口增速负增长及近期地产销售数据的再度走弱等，都在暗示一季度中国经济增长中 包含了一定的"抢出口"成分，同样3月美国部分数据也显示了美国具名对中国商品的囤积抢购行为， 建议对4月即将面临的经济数据有一定冲击预警准备；海外方面， 美国政府关税政策消息仍是不断大 幅摇摆状态，但不变的是美国国 ...

据央视新闻4月19日报道，当地时间4月18日，美国哥伦比亚广播公司报道称，多名消息人士透露， 由于特朗普政府对中国商品加征的畸高关税将 导致供应链危机，特朗普政府内部已开始讨论组建一个工作组，以便在未能与中国政府谈判取得突破的情况下紧急处理这些问题。 消息人士称，目前有关成立该小组的具体情况还未敲定任何细节，但工作组可能包括副总统万斯、财政部长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克、白宫国家 经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔。 01 美方对华轮番加征畸高关税 美国总统特朗普本月2日在白宫签署行政令，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》，宣布美国进入紧急状态，对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"。 来源：每日经济新闻 编辑 | 程鹏 杜波 34%、125%、245%……连日来，美国政府滥用关税手段，对包括中国在内的全球贸易伙伴征收额外所谓"对等关税"，结果不仅造成全球市 场"鸡飞狗跳"，美国自己也出现了民众哄抢鸡蛋、企业原料缺货、海关系统"宕机"等诸多混乱。 美东时间8日，美方将此前宣布的对中国输美产品加征34%所谓"对等关税"，进一步提高50%至84%。 美东时间10日时，美方 ...

来源：凤凰网财经《封面》 近日，一位中国学者霸气回应外媒提问的视频引爆全网。 当记者提到 " 中国将失去美国市场 " ，及美副总统万斯的 " 中国乡巴佬 " 言论时，国际问题学者、全球化智库副主任高志凯称：没有美国，中国也过了 五千年。美国必须正视中国、尊重中国。 在凤凰网财经《封面》专访中，高志凯犀利拆解西方叙事陷阱，揭露美国 " 关税战 " 伪逻辑，更向全球国家喊话： " 美国不是在与中国为敌，是在与中 国代表的全世界自由贸易人民为敌。" 以下为专访实录节选： 高志凯： 技术细节要讨论，但那个场合不合适讨论。另外一个中美之间有各种各样的问题要解决，也不是在那个场合（解决）。在那个场合我觉得最关 键就是说（体现）中国信心，中国信心的原因在哪里？我们的基础在哪里？这就是我们上 5000 年什么事没有见过？什么敌人没有对付过、什么危机没有 克服过等等，我们都经历过。 凤凰网财经《封面》： 您近期接受外媒采访时，用 " 中国五千年文明史 " 回应 " 被美国孤立 " 的质疑，能否还原当时的对话细节？ 所以美国只是我们 5000 年连续不断地历史中的一个小角色，是一个插曲，甚至可以是可有可无的插曲。不是说是一个霸主 ...

Group 1 - China has significantly reduced its oil imports from the US by 90%, opting instead for unprecedented levels of crude oil imports from Canada, with imports from Vancouver reaching 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The volume of oil imported from the US has dropped from a peak of 29 million barrels in June of the previous year to just 3 million barrels per month [1] - This shift indicates a strategic move by China to distance itself from US markets, as it also reduces imports of other commodities such as agricultural products and natural gas [1] Group 2 - The unexpected increase in oil imports from Canada comes despite Canada's previous actions against China, including imposing 100% tariffs on electric vehicles and following US provocations in political and military spheres [2] - China's large-scale purchase of Canadian oil can be interpreted as support for Canada in its resistance against US tariffs, highlighting a rare alignment between the two nations against a common adversary [2][5] - The relationship between Canada and the US has historically been one of dependency, with Canada relying heavily on the US for trade and security, making it difficult for Canada to assert its independence [3] Group 3 - The US's imposition of high tariffs on Canadian goods, including oil, aims to undermine Canada's economy and force it into submission, which has prompted Canada to retaliate [5] - China's import of Canadian oil serves as a lifeline for Canada, allowing it to mitigate the impact of US sanctions and maintain its economic sovereignty [5] - This situation illustrates a broader geopolitical dynamic where countries affected by US policies seek alternative partnerships to bolster their economic resilience [5]

这并非PS5首次涨价。2022年和2024年，PS5也曾在部分地区提高售价。但是，此次涨价发生在美国总 统特朗普掀起的"关税战"浪潮中，受到市场普遍关注。 4月初以来，美国肆意加征所谓"对等关税"扰动全球市场。日本一些依赖硬件业务的游戏机制造商不可 避免地受到波及。 近日，游戏主机PlayStation 5（以下简称"PS5"）在部分地区提高价格，任天堂则推迟了新款主机Switch 2在美国的预购。 分析人士表示，游戏机制造商将产业链转移到美国的可能性微乎其微，其不仅要面对高昂投资、劳动力 成本飙升和供应链重构的难题，还要应对知识产权泄露的风险。 Switch 2在美预购推迟 4月13日，索尼方面宣布，提高PS5的价格。此次涨价涉及英国、欧洲、澳大利亚和新西兰等市场，涨 价措施在4月14日生效。 涨价后，PS5数字版欧洲地区的售价为499.99欧元，上涨50欧元，涨幅超11%。 "在高通胀和汇率波动等充满挑战的经济环境下，索尼互动娱乐做出了艰难的决定。"索尼方面并未在公 告中指明涨价的具体原因。 投大大数据研究院分析师胡怡文对《中国经营报》记者表示，在"关税战"风波中，日本受挫最重的产业 是汽车制造业。 4月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day. The impact of the recent tariff war has marginally subsided, the Fed has a low willingness to cut interest rates in the short term, and the domestic economic indicators in the first quarter performed well, reducing the necessity of interest rate cuts in the short term. Thus, the upside space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the medium to long term, external uncertainty risks are increasing, the external situation is severe, and domestic policies are needed to boost internal demand. Whether from the perspective of reducing the financing costs of the real economy or coordinating the implementation of fiscal policies, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the future, and treasury bond futures have strong bottom support. Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will remain in a high - level volatile consolidation in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On April 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 250.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with a winning bid rate of 1.5%. There were 28.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the 2025 Special Treasury Bonds (Phase I) for Capital Injection into Central Financial Institutions (5 - year term). The face value of this issuance of treasury bonds through competitive bidding is 165 billion yuan, and there will be no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate will be determined through competitive bidding. The bonds will start accruing interest on April 25, 2025, with annual interest payments on April 25 of each year (postponed in case of holidays), and the principal and the last interest payment will be repaid on April 25, 2030. The bidding time is from 10:35 to 11:35 on the morning of April 24, 2025 [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the TL2506, T2506, TF2506, TS2506 trends, the treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][9]

以下文章来源于星海情报局 ，作者星海老局 iPhone零部件里，中国大陆厂商主要负责包括电池、摄像头模组、部分显示屏、连接器这些东 西，屏幕则主要靠韩国的三星和LG，还有部分组装是在越南、印度完成。 这次关税一加，直接把苹果的供应链掐了个遍，成本蹭蹭往上蹿， 库克吓得赶紧从印度往美国空 运600吨iPhone，差不多150万个手机，打算赶在关税全面开花前把货囤好，免得价格飞上天。 尽管懂王坚信"美国有能力生产iPhone"，还坚信美国会因此搞出一堆工厂，但业内人士算了一下 账，几乎全都在摇头： 要是iPhone完全在美国本土生产，最终的售价可能将会卖到3500美元（ 25588元人民币），远超现在iPhone Pro 16在美国999美元的起售价。 星海情报局 . 关注国产替代和中国品牌出海，每年写100个中国品牌案例，见证中国产业崛起！ 我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 最近这几天，美国股市被懂王的关税大棒搅得那叫一个"血肉模糊"。 "七朵金花"（科技股七大头部企业）——苹果、微软、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation. Although there was a panic - driven decline due to the tariff war, the peak - season demand for rebar has resilience, inventory is at a low level, and the valuation is also low, limiting further price drops [1]. - The iron ore market is likely to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply and demand factors are intertwined, with a slight decrease in global shipments and limited room for further increase in molten iron production [1]. - The coke and coking coal markets are expected to oscillate weakly. For coke, the reduction in coking costs and increased production on the supply side, along with weak steel demand and reduced cost support, contribute to this trend. For coking coal, the weak market, cautious procurement by coking enterprises, and low cost of making warehouse receipts are the main factors [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate weakly. For manganese silicon, the weakening of port manganese ore prices and the need for production cuts to ease the supply - demand contradiction are key factors. For ferrosilicon, the lack of improvement in demand and the accumulation of inventory are the main reasons [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price closed at 3092 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national rebar production decreased by 3150 tons to 229220 tons, social inventory decreased by 30340 tons to 532760 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 14260 tons to 200400 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 21140 tons to 273820 tons. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.14%) from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell. Global shipments decreased slightly, while molten iron production continued to increase, but there is limited room for further growth. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price closed at 1555.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable. Coking production increased, and steel demand was weak, suppressing coke prices. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price closed at 950.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.6%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Some spot prices rose, and the market was weak. Coking enterprises' procurement was cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price closed at 5902 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from March, and the procurement volume increased by 400 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price closed at 5658 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the tender quantity decreased by 183 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads and basis for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts for various varieties from 2005 to 2025 [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the contract spreads of different periods for various varieties from 2016 to 2026 [25][27][30][33][34][36][37][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts show the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View - The reference view of crude oil 2506 is to run strongly, with short - term being volatile, medium - term being volatile and weakening, and intraday being volatile and strengthening. The core logic is the escalation of US - Iran conflict and the reduction of supply expectations in the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For crude oil 2506, short - term (within a week) is volatile, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is volatile and weakening, and intraday is volatile and strengthening. The reference view is to run strongly [1]. Price and Market Performance - Due to the short - term positive factors, on Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices rose significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 3.40% to 495.3 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump reduced the intensity of the tariff war, releasing positive signals and increasing the risk appetite of the financial market. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran's energy, escalating the US - Iran conflict. OPEC+ required Kazakhstan and Iraq to compensate for the insufficient crude oil production cuts, reducing the future supply expectations of the crude oil market [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates a bearish outlook for both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) in the short and medium term, with expectations of weak performance in the market [5][7]. Summary by Sections Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short-term and medium-term views are both characterized as "oscillating weak," with a reference viewpoint of weak operation [5]. - The core logic suggests that recent macroeconomic sentiment has improved, helping the market to digest previous negative impacts from the US tariff situation. However, the upcoming rubber tapping season in Southeast Asia and domestic regions like Yunnan and Hainan is expected to increase supply pressure [5]. - The domestic automotive market showed optimistic production and sales data for March, indicating significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth, which could boost rubber demand expectations [5]. - Despite the positive automotive data, tire manufacturers are facing reduced operating rates as the May Day holiday approaches, leading to weakened demand expectations [5]. - On Thursday night, the Shanghai rubber futures contract (2509) closed down 0.41% at 14,595 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued weak oscillation on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Similar to Shanghai rubber, the short-term and medium-term views for synthetic rubber are also "oscillating weak," with a reference viewpoint of weak operation [7]. - The report notes that the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, allowing the market to absorb the adverse effects of the US tariff situation. The domestic automotive market's March production and sales data also showed significant growth [7]. - However, tire manufacturers are expected to reduce their operating rates as the May Day holiday approaches, leading to diminished demand expectations [7]. - The inventory reduction pace for synthetic rubber remains slow, contributing to ongoing supply pressure [7]. - On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures contract (2506) fell sharply by 2.08% to 10,840 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued weak oscillation on Friday [7].