美国总统特朗普去年12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束任期。 总台记者当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国联邦 储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威 尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 该知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥 伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。皮罗是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责 人。 自去年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷 成本。因不满美联储未能积极降息，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。（总台记者 张颖哲） ...

【市场回顾】 北京时间1月12日，韩国综合指数开盘涨1.17%，报4639.89点；日本股市今日因节假日休市一日。 北京时间1月12日，现货黄金突破4560美元/盎司，时隔两周再度创下历史新高；现货白银突破82美元/ 盎司，日内涨约3%。 当地时间1月9日，道指涨0.48%报49504.07点，标普500指数涨0.65%报6966.28点，纳指涨0.81%报 23671.35点。道指、标普500指数均创历史收盘新高。从全周来看，道指累涨2.32%，标普500指数涨 1.57%，纳指涨1.88%。 当地时间1月9日，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨。德国DAX指数涨0.53%报25261.64点，法国CAC40指数 涨1.44%报8362.09点，英国富时100指数涨0.8%报10124.6点。全周来看，德国DAX指数涨2.94%，法国 CAC40指数涨2.04%，英国富时100指数涨1.74%。 北京时间1月15日凌晨，美联储发布关于地区经济状况的最新褐皮书调查。 本周美股2025年四季度财报季拉开序幕，摩根大通、花旗集团、美国银行、富国银行、摩根士丹利等华 尔街大行将率先放榜。 【个股资讯】 知情人士透露，苹果内部 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that spot gold prices have surged, breaking the historical record set on December 29, 2025, reaching a new high of $4550.880 per ounce, with a 0.93% increase [1][2] - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, continuously setting historical records, and forecasts a potential price increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [3] - Investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, is expected to play a crucial role in driving gold prices, offsetting weak demand from the jewelry and technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The report from Maike Futures suggests that the stability of the US dollar index and the ability of the US economy to gradually stabilize under monetary easing will significantly impact precious metal prices [4] - CITIC Securities anticipates a strong certainty of gold price increases in 2026, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the US and persistent stagflation pressures [4] - Under a neutral scenario, models predict that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [4]

Economic Growth Forecast - Goldman Sachs projects that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.8% by 2026, which is more optimistic than the forecasts from economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to reach 2.1% in December, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to slow to 2% [1] Labor Market and Employment - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 4.5%, but there is a risk of "no job growth" due to companies utilizing artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September 2026 to address uncertainties in the labor market [1] Consumer Spending and Business Investment - Tax cuts, real wage growth, and increased wealth will continue to support consumer spending, while business investment is projected to be the strongest component of GDP in 2026, benefiting from loose financial conditions, reduced policy uncertainty, and tax incentives [1] Political Landscape - In the upcoming midterm elections, the cost of living is expected to be a major political issue, leading the White House to avoid further significant tariff increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The employment report for December 2025 indicates that both the non-farm payroll additions and the unemployment rate in the U.S. were below expectations, reflecting a balanced state in the job market after six years of adjustment since the pandemic [1] Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, with new non-farm jobs primarily concentrated in specific service sectors [1] - The total non-farm employment additions for the year 2025 were 584,000, significantly lower than the levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The current job market is characterized by "low hiring + low layoffs," suggesting a stable employment environment [1] Economic Advisory Insights - Due to unconventional data disclosures by Trump, there is a recommendation to closely monitor news and research from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts during the January meeting, with a possibility of one more rate cut during Powell's term [1]

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨 海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.9%；美 债下行1.0bp至4.18%；美元指数上涨0.7%至99.14，离岸人民币升至6.9760；WTI原油上涨3.1%至59.1美 元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨3.6%至4473.0美元/盎司。 美国TGA余额降低，美债净发行规模回落。 截至1月7日，美国TGA余额降至7836亿美元；本周（12月31 日-1月7日），美债净发行规模下降，15日滚动净发行额降至-27.03亿美元。美国2025日历年累计财政赤 字规模1.82万亿，低于2024年同期的1.91万亿美元。 美国12月失业率回落至4.4%，12月ISM制造业PMI弱于预期。 美国12月非农就业新增5万人，弱于市场 预期，但失业率回落至4.4，劳动力供给收紧或是非农、失业率分化的主因。美国2025年12月ISM制造业 PMI为47.9，连续第三个月下滑。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is in a downward cycle from 2024 to 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 depending on stabilization in property sales and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in the U.S. real estate market is insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary. Despite a decline in mortgage rates since 2025, housing sales and investment remain weak, indicating a shift to a "buyer's market" [1][10][77]. - The average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost. This high cost is primarily due to elevated home prices and mortgage rates [2][19][69]. - To bring homeownership costs down to rental levels, mortgage rates would need to decrease from the current 6.2% to 3.7% [2][69]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the downward potential for long-term Treasury yields is limited. The central tendency for the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.0% by the end of 2026 [3][35][41]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield suggests that even with Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates may not significantly decline, limiting the potential for improved housing demand [3][41][69]. Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policy Initiatives - The Trump administration has proposed five key initiatives aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes. However, the effectiveness of these measures is questioned [4][52][55]. - The proposed $200 billion MBS purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have a negligible impact on mortgage spreads, estimated to be less than 10 basis points [4][55][56]. - Long-term solutions to the housing crisis require increasing housing supply, but high construction costs and labor shortages pose significant challenges [4][56][65]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The U.S. real estate market is expected to show only weak recovery in 2026, with slight improvements in property sales as mortgage rates gradually decline. This may also positively impact exports of real estate-related goods from China to the U.S. [4][65][71].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Gold Weekly Report: Short-term High-level Volatility, Long-term Upward Logic Remains Unchanged" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes were 70.63% and 64.56% respectively; in the first week of 2026, they were 3.69% and 3.96% respectively [7][29] - Inflation data has shown a downward trend, with the US core CPI in November rising at the slowest pace since early 2021, which is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates [7][33] - US Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward, and real interest rates rose slightly in November [7][38][43] - The global gold supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024, while the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. In 2025, investment demand increased significantly both globally and domestically [7][56] - The US economy showed mixed signals, with non - farm employment slightly lower than expected but the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly [7][50] - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and factors such as the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are favorable for the long - term rise of gold prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Gold price trends: In 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes had significant increases, and they also rose in the first week of 2026 [7][29] - Inflation situation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been relatively stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to interest rate cuts [7][33] - Interest rate trends: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [7][38][43] - Supply and demand: The global gold supply and demand were loose in 2024, and the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025, and domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][56] - US economic data: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [7][50] Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: Gold futures contracts were in a high - level volatile state last week. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2026, the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio, and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are all favorable for gold prices. It is expected that gold will maintain an upward trend in the first half of 2026 [11] - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term. For options, take profits on call options and then observe [11] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Last week, gold prices were in a high - level volatile state, with the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes rising in 2025 and the first week of 2026 [23][29] 3. Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cuts [33] - Interest rates: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [38][43] 4. US Economy - GDP: The US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 2.08% in the second quarter [46] - PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 continued to decline, while the non - manufacturing PMI continued to strengthen [46] - Non - farm employment: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [50] 5. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global: The supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024 due to inventory increases, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025 [56] - Domestic: The supply and demand were in a tight balance in 2024, and investment demand increased significantly in 2025. Domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to the new gold tax policy [56] 6. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content 7. Gold Domestic - International Price Spread - The price spread between the domestic and international gold markets is within a reasonable range, but no specific data or analysis is provided [87] 8. Gold Basis - Not mentioned in the provided content 9. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise in geopolitical risks has led to increased uncertainty, causing precious metals, especially gold, to surge. However, short - term factors such as index rebalancing and margin adjustments may lead to price fluctuations, and the short - term decline risk should be noted. The medium - and long - term bull market pattern remains unchanged [1][2][3] - It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - position allocations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.39 yuan/gram, a change rate of 12.3%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 11.94 yuan/gram, a change rate of - 289.0%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 51 kg, a change rate of - 0.1%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 91,052 ounces, a change rate of - 0.25%. SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.57 tons, a change rate of - 0.05%. CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 2,617 lots, a change rate of - 2.1%. The U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.01%, a change rate of - 0.2%. The U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate increased by 0.0219%, a change rate of 0.97%. The S&P 500 index increased by 108 points, a change rate of 1.6%. The VIX volatility index remained unchanged, a change rate of - 0.1%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.1, a change rate of - 1.3%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.05%, a change rate of - 2.4% [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.64%. Oil prices rose 7.3%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.23%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.03%, and the VIX index was 14.5 [16][18] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.57%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%. Real interest rates dropped slightly to 1.88%, and the gold price rose 4.1%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%. U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.3%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.37%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.09%. The euro depreciated 0.7%, the pound depreciated 0.39%, the yen depreciated 0.67%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.11%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.72% to 99.1, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][24][26][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR Gold ETF holdings dropped slightly to 1064 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 56.2 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: G7 Finance Meeting; Tuesday: U.S. December CPI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: China's December import and export data, U.S. November retail sales; Thursday: Federal Reserve Beige Book; Friday: U.S. January NAHB Housing Market Index [38]