Group 1 - The performance of gold stocks in the first half of 2025 has significantly improved, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [2][5] - The international gold price has been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,557.1 per ounce on September 1, 2025, marking a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [2][4] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 800.56 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of over 28% since the beginning of the year [3][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut in September reaching 87.4% [4][5] - Global gold demand has increased significantly, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% year-on-year increase in total demand to 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, and a 45% increase in value to $132 billion, a historical high [4][5] - Several organizations are optimistic about the future performance of gold prices, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the safe-haven appeal of gold as key factors [5][6] Group 3 - The financial performance of gold companies has improved, with 12 gold stocks reporting year-on-year increases in net profit or turning profitable, including notable gains from companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5][6] - Western Gold reported a net profit of 154 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 131.94% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest profit for the same period since its listing [6] - Social security funds have shown interest in gold stocks, with five gold stocks receiving significant investments, totaling 3.312 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional support [6]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) experiencing a 0.57% increase and a trading volume exceeding 600 million yuan [1][2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a latest circulating scale of 1.4 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1][2] - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) rising by 1.29% and a trading volume of 133 million yuan, indicating active trading with a slight premium [1][2] Group 2 - Key stocks in the banking sector, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Qilu Bank, have increased by over 3%, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products, and supports T+0 trading [2] - Recent market trends indicate a strong rebound in precious metal prices due to expectations of interest rate cuts and heightened risk aversion, with forecasts suggesting that gold prices may reach new historical highs [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Copper: The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. Copper prices will at least remain volatile. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500. [1] - Aluminum: The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", with limited upside and downside space, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market presents a resonance pattern of improved macro - expectations and fundamentals, but high prices suppress downstream purchases. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates downward with the aluminum price. If the import ratio remains stable and the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap aluminum is limited, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton. [5] - Zinc: The supply side of zinc has a loose expectation, and the price may mainly fluctuate. The upward continuous rebound requires an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in the non - recession interest - rate cut expectation. The downward breakthrough requires an unexpected strengthening of TC and continuous inventory accumulation. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 23,000. [7] - Tin: Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, boosting the tin price. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with an operating range of 265,000 - 285,000. [9] - Nickel: The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 126,000. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space of the price. [11] - Stainless Steel: The short - term stainless steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400. The raw material price is firm, providing cost support, but the spot demand is weak. [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is expected to mainly oscillate widely after the price center moves down, with the main contract in the range of 72,000 - 78,000. The supply - side news has not been fully settled before the end of September, and the fundamental improvement provides support for the price. [15] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.64% to 79,900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.03% to 175.85 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. - In July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.53% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The alumina prices in most regions decreased slightly. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [5] Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. - The operating rates of some recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.41% to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. - In July, the refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 272,500 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.44% to 175.00 US dollars/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. - In July, the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.55% to 124,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 5.24% to - 183 US dollars/ton. [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. - The refined nickel import volume in August was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased. - The futures - spot price difference decreased by 18.68% to 370 yuan/ton. [13] Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. - The stainless steel net export volume in August was 34.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37%. [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.63% to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.68% to 76,050 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.45% to 898 US dollars/ton. [15] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. - In August, the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. [15]

分析师指出："白银突然活跃起来，因为基本面和技术面同时发出利好信号，此外，白银在40美元的关 键阻力位被突破，触发了动能买盘。" 降息前景提升了贵金属的吸引力，而随着美国总统特朗普不断批评美联储决策者，引发外界对央行独立 性的担忧，避险需求也进一步推升了金银价格。 北京时间周一（9月1日）亚盘时段，现货白银突破并站上40美元/盎司整数关口，刷新了2011年9月21日 以来的新高。 截至9月1日14:06，现货白银上涨1.99%，报40.49美元/盎司。 分析人事指出，此次上涨受到市场对美国央行将在9月下旬的会议上降息的预期推动，而本周五公布的 关键美国就业数据可能进一步显示劳动力市场趋弱，从而强化降息理由。 值班主任：费 煜 值班编审：刘子平 来 源：湖北发布、央视财经 中国基金报、长江日报 责任编辑：秦小茜 校 对：晓 亮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and potential replacement of Fed officials, and central banks of many countries around the world continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price: 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.78 compared to the previous value; trading volume: 37,086.00; open interest: 11,070.00; basis (spot - futures): - 1.79 [1]. Shanghai Silver - Closing price: 9752.00 yuan/ten grams; trading volume: 271,534.00; open interest: 3,508,944.00; basis (spot - futures): - 23.00 [1]. COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price: 3516.10, with a change of 132.60; trading volume: 180,059.00; open interest: 345,850.00; inventory: 38,925,852.75 gold - ounce [1]. COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price: 38.80 dollars/ounce; trading volume: 884,674.00; open interest: 262,870.00; inventory: 518,232,359.97 gold - ounce [1]. 2. Macro - economic Information Eurozone - In August, factory output growth reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new order index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. Germany's manufacturing FMI final value rose to 49.8, the highest in more than two years; France's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 [1]. - ECB President Lagarde said the 2% inflation target has been achieved and measures will be taken to maintain price stability. The acting governor of the Bank of Slovenia said the ECB's "easing cycle is over" [1]. United States - Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the year - on - year rates of producer - side inflation PPI and consumer - side core CPI to rise in July. Fed Chair Powell said the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to weak employment supply and demand, making a September rate cut almost certain, but the non - farm payrolls and CPI data for August need to be watched on September 5th and 11th [1]. United Kingdom - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The year - on - year rates of CPI (core CPI) in July were 3.8% (3.8%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in August was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. Japan - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The year - on - year rates of CPI (CPI) in Tokyo in July (August) were 3.1% (2.6%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (higher than expected but lower than the previous value), and the GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. With the US Treasury Secretary's urging, the Bank of Japan still has a rate - hike expectation by the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 810 - 850; for London silver, the support level around 34 - 37 and the resistance level around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, the support level around 9000 - 9400 and the resistance level around 10000 - 10500 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with new orders supporting the expansion of manufacturing output, and domestic demand driving sales growth [7][8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, and the market continues to be bullish on the unilateral trend of gold and silver, with gold expected to reach $3,600 per ounce and silver to reach $45 per ounce [9][10]. - Black commodities: Strong macro - expectations are fully priced, and the valuation is facing a test from fundamentals. Short - term fundamentals may limit the upward drive of black commodity valuations, but potential policy - related positive risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: As of the latest data, COMEX silver reached a maximum of $41.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold reached $3,557 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF had a weekly increase of 20.91 tons, and the net long - position ratio in the Shanghai gold market reached a record high [9][10]. - **Driving Factors**: Powell's dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts and the in - line PCE data have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts this year to 75bp. Technically, the breakthrough is the core driver of the upward movement [9]. 3.2 Black Commodities - **Fundamental Situation**: Inventory characteristics of various commodities may have shown signs of loosening, such as the inflection point of coking coal inventory, the slow start of iron ore port inventory accumulation, and the continuous accumulation of downstream steel product inventory. The expected resumption of production after the parade and high pig iron output may deepen inventory contradictions [11]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The spot price was firm due to a high premium [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines and factories had production - related news such as maintenance completion and production resumption [21][23]. 3.4 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan, with a 0.16% increase. It is expected to trade in a range [24]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, which had an impact on the market [25]. 3.5 Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan, with a 0.15% decrease. The continuous decrease in inventory supported the price [27]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved [28]. 3.6 Tin - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan, with a 1.94% decrease. It is expected to trade in a range [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various macro - level news such as the performance of the stock and futures markets and international events [32]. 3.7 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3,008 yuan. The fundamentals of aluminum were weak, and alumina was in low - level oscillation [34]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB's inflation target and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had an impact on the market [36]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. They are expected to have narrow - range oscillations [37]. - **Industry News**: There were many news about nickel production in Indonesia, such as production suspension, quota adjustment, and environmental issues [37][38][39]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 75,540 yuan, and it is expected to continue its weak - oscillation trend due to the partial suspension of the "trade - in" program [43]. - **Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was adjusted [44][45]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,495 yuan, and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 52,285 yuan. Industrial silicon is recommended to short at high prices, and polysilicon's spot price increased with amplified market fluctuations [46][47]. - **Industry News**: Yunnan's new energy power - grid connection policy was released [47][48][49]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 12601 contract of iron ore closed at 766 yuan, with a 2.73% decrease. It is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to repeated macro - expectations [50]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,039 yuan, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,320 yuan. The rapid inventory accumulation led to price oscillations and corrections [52]. - **Industry News**: There were data on steel production, inventory, and demand in August, and the manufacturing supply index decreased [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures decreased, and the market sentiment was weak, with expectations of weak oscillations [56]. - **Industry News**: There were price and production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and South Africa's manganese ore export data [57][58]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5 yuan, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5 yuan. They are expected to have wide - range oscillations [59]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [59]. 3.15 Logs - **Market Performance**: Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [61]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [64]. 3.16 Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Performance**: The main contract of paraxylene closed at 6,866 yuan, PTA at 4,772 yuan, and MEG at 4,427 yuan. Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and PTA and MEG have trading strategies of long PTA and short MEG [65][66]. - **Market News**: There were price changes and trading situations of paraxylene and PTA in the Asian market, and the difficulty in contract price negotiations [67][68].

Core Viewpoint - Recent strong performance of gold prices driven by factors including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The attempt by Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to a shift from dollar assets to gold [1] - Renewed geopolitical tensions have increased market risk aversion, contributing to rising gold prices [1] - Recent U.S. economic data, including July PCE and revised Q2 GDP, supports expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further bolstering gold prices [1][2] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, international gold price volatility is expected to increase, with prices remaining high due to ongoing expectations of a Fed rate cut [2] - Long-term, gold prices are anticipated to remain in an upward trend driven by persistent market uncertainty, strong demand for gold from central banks, and ongoing expectations for rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: Market Predictions - Analysts predict that the "Trump 2.0" policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, will stabilize, while "rate cut trades" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases [3] - The combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" policies is expected to catalyze gold prices until 2025, with central bank gold reserves providing robust support [3]

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 0.4 basis points, while the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" saw a yield drop of 1 basis point [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 182.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - On the same day, 288.4 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [2] - The overall funding conditions remained stable, with a slight decrease in overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions [2] Economic Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for August slightly increased by 0.1% to 49.4, driven mainly by a 0.3% rise in the production index to 50.8 [3] - The new orders index also saw a minor increase of 0.1% to 49.5, indicating some resilience in external demand [3] - The raw material purchase price index rebounded by 1.8% to 53.3, while the factory price index increased by 0.8% to 49.1, suggesting ongoing price pressures in the manufacturing sector [3] Operational Recommendations - The slight recovery in the PMI for August may not significantly impact the bond market, but a balanced funding environment and renewed interest in long-term bonds could support a stronger bond market [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% and 1.8%, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range-based trading strategy [4] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy, particularly with a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, could open up a wider space for domestic monetary easing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials, and central banks of many countries around the world continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.78 compared to a previous value, and the trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price differences (near - month vs. far - month, spot - to - futures) are also presented [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 37,086.00, and the open interest was 11,070.00, with corresponding changes compared to previous values [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 9775.00 yuan/ten - gram, with details on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price differences [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The trading volume was 271,534.00, and the open interest was 3,508,944.00, along with corresponding changes [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3516.10, with information on trading volume, open interest, and inventory in gold - troy ounces [1]. - **International Gold**: The London gold spot price was 3429.15 dollars/ounce, and there were data on SPDR and iShare gold ETF holdings [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 40.75 dollars/ounce, with trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [1]. - **International Silver**: The London silver spot price was 38.80 dollars/ounce, and there were data on US iShare and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings [1]. Price Ratios - The ratios of gold to silver prices such as Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver, New York futures gold to New York futures silver, and London gold spot to London silver spot are provided, along with their changes [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Commodities**: There are closing prices, trading volumes, and changes for INE crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, NYMEX crude oil, Shanghai copper futures, LME copper spot, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Inter - Bank Offered Rates (SHIBOR) overnight and one - year, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield, TIPS yield, and break - even inflation rate are presented [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate, and euro - to - RMB central parity rate are included [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index are shown with their closing prices and changes [1]. Macroeconomic and Policy Information - **Eurozone**: In August, the factory output growth reached the strongest level since March 2022, and the new order index expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. The German manufacturing FMI final value rose to 49.8, and the French manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4. The ECB President Lagarde said the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and the ECB may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **US**: Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the US July PPI and core CPI year - on - year rates. Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate - cut expectation due to weak employment supply and demand, but attention should be paid to the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI on September 5th and 11th [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen starting from April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1].