风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan's tightening of export controls on certain high-tech products is accelerating the push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in the area of ABF substrates [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - Taiwan's International Trade Administration has added entities such as SMIC and Huawei to a restricted export list, requiring permits for exports to these entities [1]. - A total of 601 entities, including those from Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Myanmar, and mainland China, have been added to the list due to concerns over military expansion activities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Industry Response - Domestic companies are actively working to support the supply chain, with companies like Xinsong Technology already supplying 20-layer substrates in bulk [2]. - Efforts are ongoing to validate and produce higher-layer substrates, indicating a potential breakthrough in domestic production capabilities [2]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - The ABF substrate segment remains one of the few areas in the Ascend supply chain that is not fully self-sufficient, with Taiwanese manufacturers holding a significant market share [1]. - The technical challenges in producing high-spec ABF substrates include maintaining layer alignment and thickness consistency, especially for larger and multi-layered products [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's stock market, highlighting the emergence of new technology trends and business models, a decrease in opportunity costs for stock investments, and improved economic policies that favor investor returns. This creates a favorable environment for thematic investments, particularly in frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and structural improvements, with a focus on investment opportunities for the second half of 2025 [1][6][11]. Group 1: Frontier Technologies - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is expected to follow a path of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries," with AI becoming a key catalyst for commercialization and increasing demand for computing power [2]. - The application of embodied intelligence is accelerating in fields such as research, education, and healthcare, with a focus on specific robotic products like quadrupedal and exoskeleton robots [2]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is rapidly advancing, enabling traditional industries to upgrade, with synthetic biology and information crossover technologies opening new spaces in the bioeconomy [3]. - The brain-machine interface industry is in the exploratory phase, with several tech companies attempting breakthroughs in hardware and applications [3]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G technology is set to revolutionize communication with significant improvements in speed and latency, with research expected to start in 2025 and commercial systems planned for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with market size expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the establishment of non-controlled airspace and operational certifications [7]. - The commercial space sector is anticipated to see significant growth due to the increasing demand for satellite launches and the development of satellite constellations [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process and a projected marine production value exceeding ten trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is becoming a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to deepen domestic replacements [9]. Group 3: Structural Improvements - Theme 7: Smart Driving - The penetration of advanced smart driving technologies is accelerating, with significant cost reductions expected in related hardware due to scale effects from companies like BYD [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is thriving, driven by digital economy and infrastructure changes [12]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics leading to price recoveries in related sectors [13]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - There is an increasing urgency to address regional development imbalances, with accelerated investment in western infrastructure and supportive policies for local industries [14].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.34% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran [1] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Iranian state media is "about to disappear," followed by an attack on Iranian state television [1] - The Israeli military reported the death of Iranian military commander Ali Shadmani, which has heightened fears among Iranian officials [1] - The U.S. has redeployed military assets in the Middle East in response to the conflict, which could impact oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. State Department issued a travel warning for Israel and the West Bank, indicating a high-risk level [2] - A joint statement from 21 Arab and Islamic nations condemned Israel and expressed support for Iran, with threats to U.S. interests in the region if the conflict escalates [2] G7 Summit Insights - During the G7 summit, President Trump expressed disagreements with other leaders regarding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies [3] - The U.S. and U.K. reached a trade agreement focusing on key sectors such as automotive and pharmaceuticals [3] Stock Market Movements - The stock of brain-computer interface company RGC surged by 283% following FDA approval for its new neural modulation chip [4] - Apple saw a 15% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales in April and May, marking its best performance since the pandemic [4] Macau Gaming Sector - Macau's gaming revenue for the first half of June reached 1 billion MOP, with a weekly increase of 5% driven by high VIP win rates [5] - Sands China and MGM China both saw stock increases of nearly 5% following positive revenue reports [5] Aerospace Industry Developments - The 55th Paris Air Show showcased innovations in military aircraft and green aviation, with China presenting its J-35A fighter jet [6] - The event is expected to lead to potential orders for Chinese aircraft, particularly the J-10CE and J-35A models [6] Semiconductor Industry Initiatives - New policies in Guangzhou aim to support the integrated circuit industry, focusing on breakthroughs in chip design and manufacturing [7] - Companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC are positioned to benefit from these initiatives [7] Company-Specific News - Longpan Technology signed a production pricing agreement worth over 5 billion RMB for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating strong demand in the solid-state battery sector [8] - The company has secured contracts totaling approximately 17 billion RMB this year, reflecting its growing influence in the battery materials market [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights ten investment themes focusing on advanced manufacturing, emerging technologies, and structural improvements, indicating a favorable environment for thematic investments in the second half of 2025 [1][4][10] - The report emphasizes the shift in investor perception towards a "transformation bull market" in China's stock market, driven by declining discount rates and a reduction in opportunity costs for equity investments [10][11] - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with the first operational certificates for manned civil unmanned aerial vehicles issued, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [2][34] Group 2 - The low-altitude economy market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 33.8% year-on-year in 2023, driven by the manufacturing of low-altitude aircraft and operational services [36][40] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see a significant increase in satellite launch demand, with multiple satellite constellations entering a dense networking phase, highlighting a substantial gap in launch capacity [41][49] - The deep-sea technology sector is being prioritized under the "Marine Power" strategy, with a focus on developing key technologies and equipment, aiming to enhance China's capabilities in deep-sea resource exploration and utilization [55][64] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is identified as a critical battleground in the technology competition, with a focus on domestic advancements in lithography technology and the promotion of mergers and acquisitions to strengthen the supply chain [3][64] - The report recommends investing in leading semiconductor equipment and materials companies, as well as domestic computing power industry chains, to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced semiconductor technologies [3][64] - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing accelerated penetration, with the report suggesting investments in key components such as intelligent driving chips, cameras, and lidar systems, as well as smart transportation software and hardware companies [3][64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by policy support, particularly in upstream sectors closely related to domestic demand [1][2] - The report highlights specific sectors such as polyurethane, coal chemical, petrochemical, and fluorochemical as key areas for potential profit recovery [1][2] - The focus on new materials as a primary development direction for China's chemical industry includes high-value products like robot materials, AI & semiconductor materials, bio-aviation fuel, OLED materials, and COC materials [1][3] Group 2 - The expectation of domestic demand recovery is supported by recent policy measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, with a focus on the chemical industry's upstream sectors [2] - Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Baofeng Energy (600989), and others in the coal chemical and petrochemical sectors, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [2] - The emphasis on developing new materials is driven by emerging demands from humanoid robots and AI applications, as well as ongoing domestic substitution efforts in the semiconductor field [3] Group 3 - High-quality companies with strong shareholder returns are expected to undergo a revaluation, including major state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas sector and firms in the compound fertilizer and amino acid industries [4] - The report suggests that many sub-sectors within the chemical industry are at a point where they can enhance shareholder returns to reshape investment value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the electronic industry is expected to continue its growth trend under normal demand conditions since Q2 2025, with strong downstream demand related to computing power and a stronger overseas computing power chain compared to domestic counterparts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The demand for B-end servers, optical storage, home appliances, and industrial automation remains strong, which is expected to drive the performance of related analog, power, and mature process industry chains [1] - The consumer electronics sector is in its traditional off-season in Q2, but demand remains stable, with some companies benefiting from market share gains and innovation upgrades [1] - The domestic supply chain for self-controllable industries is steadily advancing, with expectations for advanced logic orders to gradually materialize and stable storage orders [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The trend of industry mergers and acquisitions is becoming clearer [1] - The segments expected to perform well in Q2 include leading companies in computing-related PCBs, analog, storage, equipment, optics, certain SoC companies, and CIS leaders [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the Volcano Engine's FORCE conference focusing on AI advancements, including large models and AI cloud-native services, and Apple's WWDC 2025 emphasizing software ecosystem innovation [5][37] - The Volcano Engine introduced the Doubao large model 1.6, which significantly reduces costs while enhancing performance, and the Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model, which leads the industry in competitive rankings [17][34] - Apple showcased a unified Liquid Glass design across its operating systems, enhancing user experience and integrating AI capabilities into its ecosystem [38][49] Industry Trends - The Volcano Engine's conference discussed the industrialization path of AI technology, with a focus on large models, AI agents, and multi-modal understanding [5][15] - The Doubao large model 1.6 features a new pricing strategy that reduces costs by 63% compared to previous models, making it more accessible for enterprises [17][20] - The Seedance 1.0 pro model offers competitive pricing for video generation, allowing businesses to create high-quality content at a lower cost [34] Policy Developments - Recent policies in China aim to address "involution" in the steel and automotive industries, with commitments from major manufacturers to shorten payment terms to suppliers to no more than 60 days [57][58] - Local governments in cities like Shenzhen and Beijing have introduced consumption-boosting measures to stimulate economic activity, including the cancellation of real estate purchase restrictions [57][58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five key sectors with marginal improvements: AI applications, self-sufficiency, new consumption, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [54][56] - The AI application sector is highlighted due to upcoming events and advancements in autonomous driving and logistics, indicating potential growth opportunities [54] - The self-sufficiency sector is expected to benefit from advancements in domestic chip production and the ongoing trend of replacing foreign technology with local alternatives [54]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven demand recovery and the deepening of domestic substitution, entering a recovery cycle since the second half of 2023, with positive revenue and net profit growth projected for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][20][21] - The report maintains an overweight recommendation, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency and the AI wave as key investment themes for 2025 [1][5] Section Summaries 1. Semiconductor Sector Performance in 2024 & Q1 2025 - The semiconductor sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of CNY 602.23 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.10%, and a net profit of CNY 35.34 billion, up 12.82% [13] - For Q1 2025, the sector is expected to generate revenue of CNY 148.35 billion, a 15.95% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 9.28 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 35.13% [13][20] - Profitability metrics indicate a slight decline in gross and net profit margins for 2024, with a recovery anticipated in Q1 2025, where gross margin is expected to rise to 26.29% and net margin to 6.24% [16][20] 2. Subsector Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.88 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.38%, with a net profit of CNY 2.57 billion, up 24.12% [22] - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see revenue of CNY 10.41 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 10.93% increase, and a net profit of CNY 0.67 billion, up 40.35% [26] - The digital chip design sector is projected to generate revenue of CNY 37.97 billion in Q1 2025, a 20.27% increase, with a net profit of CNY 3.26 billion, up 20.59% [29] 3. External Factors Driving Domestic Substitution - Increasing restrictions from overseas, particularly from the U.S., are accelerating the domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry [47][48] - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions have intensified, impacting various segments of the semiconductor supply chain, including advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment [47][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on new materials, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in prices for chemical products, driven by a recent easing of tariffs in the US-China trade war, which has led to increased foreign trade inquiries and shipping prices [8]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in profitability and valuation, with a projected ROE-PB of 6.19% and 1.77 for 2024, and a recovery to 7.55% and 1.85 in Q1 2025 [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and the need for self-sufficiency [9]. - The new materials sector has shown strong performance, outpacing the broader market indices, with a weekly change of 1.98% compared to a decline in major indices [10]. Industry Updates - The report notes that the new materials sector is expected to benefit from a shift towards domestic production and the reduction of import dependencies, particularly in critical areas [9]. - The report identifies specific new materials with high growth potential, including ETO, nucleating agents, aramid paper, PI films, industrial coatings, and ion exchange resins [9]. - The report also mentions the investigation into DuPont China by the National Market Supervision Administration, which could create opportunities for domestic companies in the same sector [11]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 75.23, reflecting a decrease of 1.08% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 24.76% [18]. - The report provides detailed statistics on price changes for various materials, indicating a mixed performance with some materials like SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 3.00% while high-purity hydrogen saw a decrease of 10.00% [19][22]. New Materials Subsector Tracking - The report tracks various subsectors within new materials, including advancements in battery safety standards, which are set to be enforced in 2026, potentially impacting the materials used in electric vehicle batteries [12]. - The report highlights the growth in the smartphone market, with a 3.3% year-on-year increase in shipments, benefiting the consumer electronics materials sector [13]. - The report discusses funding initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at supporting AI terminal technology, which may influence the materials used in smart devices [14].