1、市场点评 "政策预期＋风险缓和"短期共振（向好趋势不变） 中美谈判达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，推动风险偏好回暖，市场保持活跃，短期市场震荡回升。 需关注中美12日发布会内容，把握结构性布局窗口机会，放眼中期机遇，杠铃策略占优。 关税博弈：短期超预期，双方同意建立磋商机制，关注发布会内容，中期达成全面协议还需时间。。 国内政策：金融组合拳"稳市场、稳预期"，更多体现"托而不举"思路，财政接力成关键。 基本面：关税影响尚未在经济数据中明显体现，Q2仍面临下行压力。 特朗普关税政策或有反复， 5 月是上市公司分红派息窗口期，红利风格仍处布局良机，中长线资金加速 入市，低利率与资产荒背景下，高股息、优质消费龙头深受机构资金青睐，是底仓配置的较优选； 4月财报担忧已释放，TMT等成长板块成交占比回落低位，自主可控逻辑强化，AI产业在资本支出周期 下持续迭代，科技成长板块仍是中期主线。* 2、国内财经要闻 【5月7日】"一行一会一局"（政策加码发力） 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李 云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve signaling a "wait and see" approach, indicating a cautious stance towards inflation and employment data, while trade policy remains a critical variable [2][3] - The U.S. and U.K. have reached a preliminary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.K. car imports to a maximum of 10%, which reflects a potential baseline for future negotiations [2] - The report expresses a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting a strong rebound due to new financial policies, but acknowledges ongoing external risks and market volatility [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility, with the S&P 500 showing signs of pressure despite recovering from previous declines, influenced by trade negotiations and potential earnings pressures [5][6] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's rebound requires additional capital inflows and sustained policy support, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [3][18] - The report notes that global stock and bond ETFs have seen accelerated net inflows, particularly into European markets, while U.S. markets continue to experience net outflows [6][25]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 2、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 3、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 4、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 5、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff negotiations on the A-share market, suggesting that the market sentiment has improved due to expectations of tariff easing and liquidity release from the central bank [3][10][12] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is anticipated to support market stability [9][10] - The report indicates a shift in focus towards sectors such as low-volatility dividend stocks, banking, and public utilities, while also suggesting potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors like tourism and entertainment during market corrections [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to see further declines in yields, with a target range for ten-year government bond yields set between 1.50% and 1.55%, indicating a favorable outlook for short-term interest rate bonds [3][12] - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume has increased to 1,353.426 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity following the easing of tariff concerns and monetary policy adjustments [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and China's M2 growth, which could influence market dynamics in the near term [21]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[2] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers on loans over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%[2] Financial Support Initiatives - A total of 5,000 billion yuan was allocated for "service consumption and pension re-loans" to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas[2] - The quota for re-loans supporting technological innovation and technical transformation was increased from 5,000 billion yuan to 8,000 billion yuan, with an additional 3,000 billion yuan allocated for supporting agriculture and small enterprises[2] - The combined use of 5,000 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 3,000 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans was established to support capital market stability[2] Regulatory Adjustments - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce eight new policies aimed at financing and investing in real estate, foreign trade, small and private enterprises, and technological innovation[3] - Insurance funds' long-term investment pilot scope will be expanded, with an additional 60 billion yuan approved to inject more funds into the market[3] - The risk factor for stock investments by insurance companies will be reduced by 10%, encouraging greater market participation[3] Market Outlook - The overall policy measures are expected to enhance market confidence, stabilize economic growth, and promote healthy market development, with some policies exceeding market expectations[4] - The impact of tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. on the domestic economy will need to be monitored, particularly regarding the effectiveness of these policies in countering negative effects[4] - The bond market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on the timing for entering positions as the market recovers from previous declines[7]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced increased volatility due to trade war developments, significantly impacting gold prices and market risk appetite [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold prices exhibited a V-shaped trend from April 28 to May 5, initially declining before rebounding, influenced by changing risk preferences amid tariff negotiations [1] - Following a rapid increase in April, gold prices require time for consolidation, with recent headwinds emerging from signals of easing tensions from the Trump administration and better-than-expected U.S. economic data [1][3] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly three years, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The U.S. and Ukraine reached agreements on resource development, which initially boosted market sentiment, but subsequent trade negotiations with Japan and China faced setbacks, reigniting concerns over trade tensions [2] - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations, but previous months' data were significantly revised downward [3] Currency Movements - Asian currencies appreciated during the May Day holiday, with the New Taiwan Dollar reaching a 22-month high, and the Hong Kong dollar rebounding within its trading range [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the market, indicating a significant capital flow [4] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with exposure to gold prices through investments in Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for gold [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of effectively preventing risks in key areas, the bond default risk in the future market will remain under control. However, due to the complex international situation and domestic economic challenges, five types of risks need attention: changes in the fundamentals and risk evolution of export - oriented enterprises under tariff games, uncertainties in debt repayment during the mergers and reorganizations of real - estate enterprises, uncertainties faced by traditional industries during transformation and upgrading, risks of delisting or market fluctuations of convertible bond issuers due to weakened fundamentals, and potential impacts on the solvency of some small and medium - sized financial institutions from multiple risk factors [4][20]. - In Q1 2025, the credit risk in the bond market was generally controllable, with a decrease in the number of new defaulting entities and low - level fluctuations in the rolling default rate. The risk differentiation continued, with private enterprises' risks being continuously cleared. The default exposure of real - estate enterprises slowed down, but they remained the main entities for bond extensions. Negative rating actions decreased, and the progress of default disposal was slow [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Review: Five Characteristics of Bond Market Credit Risk in Q1 1. Decrease in the Number of New Defaulting Entities and Low - Level Fluctuations in the Rolling Default Rate - In Q1, the bond market default risk was generally controllable. There were 3 new defaulting issuers, 1 less than the same period last year. The new default scale was 41.28 billion yuan. The monthly rolling default rate in the public offering market first rose and then fell, reaching 0.25% at the end of March, the same as at the end of 2024 [4]. 2. Continued Risk Differentiation and Continuous Clearance of Private Enterprises' Risks - Support policies for private enterprises have been upgraded this year, but the transmission has a time - lag. In Q1, the credit bond financing scale of private enterprises was limited, with issuance less than 140 billion yuan, accounting for about 3% of credit bonds, and a net outflow of nearly 1.6 billion yuan. The 3 new defaulting entities in Q1 were all private enterprises, and the scale of bond extensions by private enterprises was 5.687 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of the total [9]. 3. Slowdown in the Exposure of Real - Estate Enterprises' Defaults, but They Remained the Main Entities for Extensions, and Tail Risks Were Still Being Cleared - In Q1, the default release of real - estate bonds slowed down significantly, with no new defaulting entities. The scale of bond extensions by real - estate enterprises was 5.659 billion yuan, accounting for over 90%. As of now, the cumulative scale of real - estate bond extensions is nearly 200 billion yuan, about 65% of the bonds have been extended again or multiple times, and 27% of the extended bonds defaulted [12]. 4. Decrease in Negative Rating Actions, and All Entities with Downgraded Levels Were Convertible Bond Issuers - From January to March, there were 17 rating actions in the bond market, including 10 downgrades of issuer levels, 1 less than the same period last year. The 7 entities with downgraded levels were all convertible bond issuers, mainly due to weakened profitability, losses, and legal issues [16]. 5. Ordered Progress of Default Disposal, but Slow Progress in Substantive Repayment - In Q1, the disposal of defaulted bonds progressed in an orderly manner. The reorganization application of Shanshan Group was accepted by the court, and the reorganization plan (draft) of Contemporary Technology passed the vote of the creditor's meeting. As of the end of March 2025, the scale of bonds with disclosed completed disposal accounted for 19.2% of the total defaulted bonds, and the proportion of bonds that completed repayment or were delisted was only 16.9% [19]. Outlook: Default Risks Are Stable and Controllable under the Risk - Prevention Tone, and Five Types of Risks Need Local Attention 1. Pay Attention to the Possibility of Fundamental Changes and Risk Evolution of Export - Oriented Enterprises under Tariff Games - Under the current intensified tariff game, domestic export - oriented enterprises face multiple pressures such as rising costs and shrinking market shares. Exchange - rate fluctuations also affect their earnings. Small and medium - sized export enterprises are at higher risk, and industries such as machinery, textiles, and chemicals need attention [20]. 2. Pay Attention to the Uncertainty of Debt Repayment Caused by Derivative Risks during the Mergers and Reorganizations of Real - Estate Enterprises - As of the end of March 2025, the real - estate bond stock was about 1.57 trillion yuan, nearly 20% less than at the end of 2020. However, with the increase in industry concentration, some real - estate enterprises may face mergers, reorganizations, or liquidation, and the risks during the debt - resolution process need attention [21]. 3. Pay Attention to the Uncertainties Faced by Traditional Industries during Transformation and Upgrading - In the trend of industrial upgrading, traditional industries may face challenges such as shrinking demand and technological innovation. For example, traditional automobile dealers are affected by the direct - sales model of new - energy vehicles. The risk of traditional industries being squeezed out of the market needs to be highly concerned [22]. 4. Pay Attention to the Risks of Delisting or Market Fluctuations of Convertible Bond Issuers due to Weakened Fundamentals - Since 2025, the financial delisting rules have become stricter. About 46% of convertible bond issuers that disclosed annual performance forecasts expect losses in 2024. There is a risk of delisting and market fluctuations, and the uncertainty of repayment due to delisting or price drops needs to be vigilant [23]. 5. Pay Attention to the Potential Impacts on the Solvency of Some Small and Medium - Sized Financial Institutions from Multiple Risk Factors - Small and medium - sized financial institutions have experienced risk events in recent years. Multiple risk factors such as regional economic pressure, industry fluctuations, and their own operational weaknesses may affect their bond repayment ability. Attention should also be paid to the risks during mergers, reorganizations, and market exits [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is expected to be in a volatile state [1][2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is bullish in the short - term [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US ISM services index in April unexpectedly rose to 51.6, with the price index reaching a new high in over two years, and improvements in employment and new orders. US Treasury Secretary Yellen touts the US, saying that Trump's policy combination such as tax cuts will attract investment in the US, and the US GDP growth may approach 3% by this time next year. Pan Gongsheng attended and chaired the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea, and the meeting passed relevant arrangements for a new rapid financing tool funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB. With a relatively stable internal environment, high external uncertainties, and a potentially long - lasting tariff game, the stock index may fluctuate [1] Treasury Bond - The game of external shocks and the liquidity situation remain the main trading themes in the market. There is a time - lag effect in the transmission of external shocks to the domestic economy, and the potential depth of their impact has not fully emerged. Under the medium - to - long - term fundamental logic, the bond market is still in a favorable environment. On the first trading day after the holiday, the maturity volume of OMO is relatively concentrated. Continuously monitor whether the central level of capital interest rates can effectively decline to release the downward space for the short - and medium - term, which will also provide greater support for the long - term [2] 3. Market Reviews Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.97% [4] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the CSI 300 continuous contract was 3730.60 yuan per contract, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 38,102 lots and an open interest of 134,340 lots; the SSE 50 continuous contract closed at 2628.00 yuan per contract, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 21,403 lots and an open interest of 42,616 lots; the CSI 500 continuous contract closed at 5471.00 yuan per contract, down 0.52%, with a trading volume of 37,058 lots and an open interest of 96,080 lots; the CSI 1000 continuous contract closed at 5729.00 yuan per contract, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 120,927 lots and an open interest of 159,258 lots [9] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the 10 - year treasury bond continuous contract was 108.84 yuan per contract, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57,270 lots and an open interest of 186,819 lots; the 5 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 105.91 yuan per contract, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 45,830 lots and an open interest of 158,011 lots; the 30 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 120.18 yuan per contract, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 67,316 lots and an open interest of 104,543 lots; the 2 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 102.32 yuan per contract, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 33,165 lots and an open interest of 94,570 lots [9] 4. Technical Analyses Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [7]

来源：本文编译自eenews，谢谢。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 参照世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）的实际月度销售数据显示，3月份全球芯片市场规模为 627.6亿美元。 欧洲芯片市场同比继续萎缩，但萎缩速度较前几个月有所放缓。与此同时，WSTS 追踪的所有其 他地理区域的芯片市场规模均同比有所增长。 增长最快的地区是美洲，该地区2月份芯片市场规模同比增长45.3%。日本和中国的芯片市场增长 率仅为个位数，而除日本和中国以外的亚太地区则实现了15.4%的强劲增长。 SIA首席执行官约翰·诺弗（John Neuffer）表示："全球半导体需求依然高涨，第一季度销售额大 幅超过去年同期。" 他补充道："受美洲地区约45%的同比增长推动，销售额连续11个月同比增长 超过17%。" 据半导体行业协会统计，3月份全球芯片市场三个月平均规模为559亿美元，环比增长1.8%，同比 增长18.8%。 尽管数据来源WSTS是按月追踪销售额，但SIA提供的月度数据是三个月的平均值。SIA和其他区 域性半导体行业机构选择使用平均数据，因为它可以平衡实际数据，因为实际数据通常在季度初出 现低谷，在季度末出现峰值。 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "America First" is prompting the EU to enter an era of "strategic awakening," with the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the EU economy likely to manifest sooner than the positive effects of fiscal expansion, which may only begin to outweigh the negative impacts by Q4 of this year [1][4][13]. Group 1: Strategic Awakening in the EU - The unilateralism of the Trump administration is increasing anxiety among European nations, leading to a consensus on increasing defense spending within the EU [2][13]. - Germany's €1 trillion fiscal expansion plan has completed the legislative process and will be discussed after the new government is formed [2][13]. - The EU's €800 billion proposal for "rearming Europe" is actively progressing, with national exception clause applications approved in July [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the EU Economy - The static assessment indicates that U.S. tariffs will raise the effective tariff rate on imports from the EU by 9.6 percentage points, potentially reducing EU exports by approximately 1.9% and impacting EU GDP by about 0.5% [4][12]. - The pharmaceutical and organic chemical sectors are particularly vulnerable to these tariffs, with countries like Ireland, Finland, Italy, and Germany being sensitive to U.S. tariff policies [4][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion and Economic Growth - Increased fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to effectively boost economic growth in Europe, with France and Germany likely to be the primary beneficiaries [4][18]. - The positive impact of fiscal expansion may take longer to materialize compared to the immediate negative effects of tariffs, with expectations that the latter will begin to diminish by Q4 of this year [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is crucial for the EU economy to avoid recession, with many European companies focusing on equipment upgrades and product R&D rather than capacity expansion [18]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to leverage the EU's fiscal expansion to accelerate strategic transformations and seek potential opportunities in Europe, particularly in sectors like electrical and optical equipment [18].