Core Viewpoint - The prices of benzene and butadiene, essential raw materials for automotive and apparel industries, have dropped by approximately 20% over the past month and a half, raising concerns about declining global automotive demand due to economic downturns and tariff impacts [1][4]. Group 1: Benzene Market - The price of benzene in East Asia fell to $750 per ton as of April 14, a decrease of $85 (10%) from the previous week, and down $175 (19%) compared to the last week of February [3]. - Benzene is a key raw material for various products, including polystyrene, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), and ABS resin, as well as nylon fibers for apparel [3]. - The decline in benzene prices is attributed to a slowdown in exports to the U.S. and a sluggish Chinese economy, compounded by tariff disputes affecting global economic outlooks [3][4]. - ENEOS's April contract price for benzene dropped by $90 (10%) to $835 per ton, marking a new low since July 2023 [3]. Group 2: Butadiene Market - Butadiene prices in Asia fell to $1,145 per ton as of April 11, down $170 (13%) from the previous week and $320 (22%) from February's peak [4]. - The weakening demand for butadiene is linked to the broader economic decline and reduced automotive demand, which is increasingly recognized in the market [4]. - The apparel sector may also face challenges, as platforms like SHEIN could see production slow due to changing tariff conditions in the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Naphtha Market - The price of naphtha, a feedstock for benzene and butadiene, has also weakened, dropping below $600 per ton in early April [4]. - There are mixed views on the future of naphtha prices, with some suggesting that reduced imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane by China to avoid high tariffs could lead to increased naphtha procurement, potentially supporting prices [5].

能源化工 乙二醇日报 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 昨日，乙二醇华东现货价格 4200 元/吨，较前一日下跌 55 元/ 吨。主力合约收盘 4180 元/吨，较前一交易上涨 0.59%。基差为 30 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓 解。WTI原油主力收64.39美元/桶，布油收67.22美元/桶。供给端， 内蒙古中化学30万吨装置重启推迟至4月中旬，此前该装置于3月23 日附近停车。上海石化38万吨装置预计4月底重启，此前主产环氧。 新疆一套40万吨装置因故于3月20日停车，初步预计7月份重启。沙 特一套55万吨装置近期重启，此前于2月份停车检修。沙特一套70 万吨装置计划于4月中前后开始停车检修，预计检修两个月左右。 上海石化38万吨产能预计4月份重启，镇海炼化原计划3月底重启， 现推迟至年底，内蒙兖矿40万吨计划3月下旬停车1个月，陕西榆林 化学有两条线计划4月份检修。乐天美国70万吨产能计划4月份检修， 马来西亚石油75万吨产能计划4-5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of a trade war initiated by former President Trump, who has imposed significant tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China, which has led to volatility in global trade and significant impacts on various provinces in China [2][3][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition and Market Impact - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10% tariff on all imports, with additional tariffs on over 60 countries, including a 34% tariff on China [5][6]. - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 4.85% and 5.99%, respectively [2]. - By April 9, the tariffs on China escalated to 125%, indicating a rapidly changing trade environment [5][6]. Group 2: Export Dependency of Chinese Provinces - In 2024, China's total exports to the U.S. reached $524.7 billion, with significant contributions from provinces like Guangdong ($133.4 billion), Zhejiang ($88.8 billion), and Jiangsu ($83 billion), each holding a 16% share of their respective total exports [9][10][11]. - Zhejiang province has the highest dependency on U.S. exports at 7.0% of its GDP, followed closely by Guangdong at 6.7% [12][13]. - The article highlights that while Guangdong leads in total export volume, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have a similar share of exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - At the city level, Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Shanghai are among the top exporters to the U.S., but cities like Jinhua and Xiamen have higher export dependency rates, indicating a need for closer monitoring [14]. - Jinhua's exports are heavily focused on light industrial goods, which are more susceptible to tariff impacts [14][26]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Impacts - The article identifies that machinery and electronics account for 40.4% of total exports to the U.S., followed by textiles and furniture, which are more vulnerable to tariff increases [22][23]. - The U.S. has targeted light industrial products for tariffs, suggesting that provinces with significant exports in these categories, like Zhejiang, will face greater challenges [24][26]. Group 5: Adaptation and Resilience - Despite the challenges posed by the trade war, provinces like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are actively implementing support policies for affected industries [15][16]. - The 137th Canton Fair, held in April 2025, reported a significant increase in international participation, indicating resilience in China's foreign trade sector [18]. Group 6: Long-term Economic Outlook - China's reliance on the U.S. market has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, suggesting a shift towards diversifying trade partnerships [31]. - The trade war is expected to drive Chinese enterprises towards higher technological advancements and improvements in supply chain management [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded but was blocked. The US is in trade negotiations with other countries, and the Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened expectations of a bailout, leading to low market risk appetite. China's Q1 export and economic indicators exceeded expectations due to pre - tariff exports and policy support. The large - scale delivery of LME zinc inventory has raised concerns about overseas consumption, pressuring zinc prices at home and abroad. Domestic downstream buyers purchased at low prices, reducing social inventory to 100,000 tons, which provides support. The supply pressure is expected to increase as smelters have a mix of production cuts and restarts. Zinc ingot imports opened and then closed, with limited inflow of imported goods, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The galvanizing industry's operating rate increased slightly due to strong tower orders and some companies' pre - tariff exports, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries declined. Overall, as the US enters the tariff negotiation stage and China is expected to introduce policies to hedge against overseas risks, market sentiment is expected to improve but may be volatile. Fundamentals are weak, but strong downstream purchases and inventory reduction provide support. In the short term, there is no clear single - sided driver, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | April 11 | April 18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,660 | 22,050 | - 610 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,661 | 2,595 | - 66 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.52 | 8.50 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 63,857 | 58,585 | - 5,272 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 119,350 | 195,350 | 76,000 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 102,100 | 100,000 | - 2,100 | Tons | | Spot Premium | 120 | 160 | 40 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, rebounded but then fell back. With tariffs in the negotiation stage and macro - trading being volatile, along with a large - scale delivery of LME inventory, zinc prices closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.58%. On Friday night, the oscillation center moved slightly higher. LME zinc oscillated downward, closing at 2,595 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48% due to inventory increases and concerns about demand prospects [5] - In the spot market, as of April 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was 22,410 - 22,510 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers' inventory from previous purchases had not decreased, so their inquiry enthusiasm weakened, and traders lowered their quotes, causing the spot premium to continue to decline [6] - In terms of inventory, as of April 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 76,000 tons to 195,350 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 5,272 tons to 58,585 tons, and social inventory decreased to 100,000 tons. Due to lower zinc prices during the week, downstream buyers purchased more at low prices, with significant inventory reductions in Shanghai and Tianjin, while inventory in Guangdong changed little [7] - In the macro - aspect, Fed Chairman Powell warned about the inflationary effects of Trump's trade policies. Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and said that a US - Ukraine mineral agreement would be signed on the 24th. The US government initiated a 232 national security investigation on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Trump mentioned measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains. He was confident about reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was not in a hurry. The EU might impose export restrictions on the US if negotiations broke down. Trump said that US - Japan negotiations had made significant progress but no substantial documents had been signed. The European Central Bank cut interest rates. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized early and rapid policy implementation [7][8] - China's March export in US dollars increased by 12.4% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion US dollars, a 75.2% year - on - year increase. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. March industrial added value increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9] 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending April 18, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3,450 yuan/metal ton, and the average weekly imported TC was flat at 35 US dollars/dry ton [13] - An East China smelter plans to conduct maintenance on its zinc production line from May 5 to May 31, affecting about 4,000 tons of zinc ingot output. A Southwest smelter postponed its April maintenance to May. New maintenance was added in East and Central China, but with new capacity release and restart after maintenance, supply pressure is expected to increase. Some smelters plan to increase production, while others postpone maintenance due to high sulfuric acid prices [13][14] - A large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China has suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory and plans to stop production for inventory consumption. If inventory consumption is not good, it may extend the holiday or resume production after the May Day holiday [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio between domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory levels of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [16][21]

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 刚刚，央行公布4月一年期、五年期LPR利率市场报价。其中一年期LPR利率3.10%，五年期LPR利率 3.60%。维持不变。LPR利率自去年10月调整之后，目前已维持6个月不变。 LPR由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业拆借中心计算得出，为银 行贷款提供定价参考。 综合业内分析来看，4月LPR报价保持不变主要有两点原因，一方面，作为LPR的定价锚，7天期逆回购 利率保持稳定；另一方面，银行净息差仍处在低位，商业银行缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 LPR报价行目前包括20家银行，每月20日（遇节假日顺延）9时前，各报价行以0.05个百分点为步长， 向全国银行间同业拆借中心提交报价，全国银行间同业拆借中心按去掉最高和最低报价后算术平均，并 向0.05%的整数倍就近取整计算得出LPR，于当日9时公布。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，从近期公布的一季度经济、金融数据看， 一季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.4%，环比增长1.2%，经济加快恢复回升；金融数据方面，无 论是社会融资规模还是人民币贷款新增，都超过预期，这表明金融 ...

中美关税博弈持续，受益政策呵护，A股市场走出上涨行情，但全周成交金额有所萎缩。宽 基指数维度，上证50表现最佳，上证50、沪深300、中证500、中证1000表现呈递减趋 势，小盘股整体表现不如大盘。从行业表现看，银行表现最佳，与政策呵护和市场状态相对 应。 02 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体震荡为主，利率债表现稍好于信用债。本周 消息面较多，包括小作文传稳地产和消费补贴的政策等，比较重要的是特别国债发行时间安 排出炉，长债发行早于市场预期，对债券市场形成扰动。基本面方面本周公布一季度经济数 据，数据整体较好，但债市已提前有预期，未过度反应。 03 商品方面，本周黄金价格再度创新高，美国关税政策不断反复，市场担忧情绪浓厚， COMEX黄金周三强势拉升，超3300美元/盎司。 04 中中国国资资产产价价格格彰彰显显定定力力 22002255年年44月月1144日日--22002255年年44月月1188日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 关税对全球市场造成巨大冲击后本周趋于缓和， A股、港股走出上涨行情，债市平稳，资产价 格彰显定力，黄金持续创新高。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 海外方面 ...

21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 全球市场仍在紧盯关税谈判的最新进展，但美国滥施关税霸凌行为带来的经济风险已经近在眼前。 《21世纪》：具体来说，欧元区经济需要警惕哪些关税触发的风险？ Matt Gertken：欧洲应重点关注以下三方面风险，首先是，如果美国方面发布强劲的金融和宏观数据， 可能会使特朗普政府更加有底气采取进一步的关税政策。其次，欧盟经济增长疲软，这将削弱其在贸易 摩擦升级情况下的反制能力。再者，全球经济增长乏力，将影响欧洲的经济基本面，并削弱其吸引全球 资本、相较于美国的投资竞争力。 本周，全球经济分析公司BCA Research首席地缘政治策略师Matt Gertken接受了21世纪经济报道专访。 BCA Research是一家总部位于加拿大的投资研究公司，主要为美国、欧洲、中国、新兴市场的客户提供 资产和宏观经济分析。 在Matt Gertken看来，特朗普政府近期可能会优先与部分贸易伙伴达成协议，从而赢得更大政策空间施 压欧盟和其他地区，不过特朗普最终可能还是会妥协让步，以避免美股继续回调进入熊市区间。 美欧贸易摩擦或将升级 《21世纪》：您怎么评估特朗普政府关税对欧盟经济的冲击？ ...

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The ethylene glycol market maintains a weak and volatile pattern due to increased arrivals and pessimistic demand expectations. The cost side is affected by Sino - US tariff games, causing oil price fluctuations. The supply side has multiple device changes, and the overall start - up load has declined. The demand side shows a certain polyester load, and the inventory has decreased. There is a need to wait for inventory depletion signals for valuation repair opportunities [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 4,113 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from the previous trading day, with a basis of 107 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: Sino - US tariff games have intensified oil price fluctuations. WTI crude oil closed at $61.94 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $65.04 per barrel [3]. - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production devices have changes in start - up and shutdown schedules. As of April 17, the overall start - up load in mainland China was 65.32% (a 1.73% decrease from the previous period), and the planned arrivals at the main ports from April 14 - 20 were about 16.1 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was around 93.4%, and the total turnover in the Light Textile City was 9.27 million meters [3]. - **Inventory**: On April 14, the inventory at the main ports in East China was about 771,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02%, the trading volume increased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 17.52%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.12%, and the basis decreased by 0.93% [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based production decreased by 12.14%, the profit of ethylene - based production increased by 1.27%, the profit of methanol - based production increased by 2.75%, and the profit of coal - based production remained unchanged [6]. - **Start - up Load**: The overall start - up rate of ethylene glycol decreased by 0.37%, the polyester factory load decreased by 1.50%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 15.62% [6]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 3.63%, the inventory in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged, and the arrivals increased by 8.32% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: China's central bank released March financial data, showing that financing demand is slowly recovering. However, the tariff war has brought uncertainties, and the central bank's supportive policies are waiting for opportunities. The US plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese products such as semiconductors and electronics [7][8]. - **Domestic and Overseas Markets**: The external market of MEG declined in the morning, and the internal market was also weak. The current spot basis and forward contract basis have corresponding price ranges [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price of ethylene glycol futures and spot, international spot prices, profit calculations of mainstream processes, start - up rates of domestic devices and the polyester industry chain, import arrivals, port out - bound volumes, and inventory at the main ports in East China [11][12][14][15][17][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - External risks are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economy is forming a new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation [1] - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy intensifies stagflation trading, and the subsequent tariff game continues, which may push the Fed into a stagflation policy dilemma [2] - Pay attention to the abnormal movements of US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, and be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities in the short - term and focus on stagflation allocation in the long - term [3] - After the short - term tariff event impacts global assets, pay attention to liquidity risks. Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on the allocation opportunities of anti - inflation assets and A - shares [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's policies in March are positive, with an increase in the deficit rate, a decrease in the CPI target, and an expansion of government credit. The official manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month, and the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The A - share market was active on April 17th. Also, pay attention to the possibility of domestic policy easing [1] Tariff Policy - Trump signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, imposing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The subsequent tariff game is complex, and the US - China tariff war has escalated. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation and put pressure on the Fed [2] US Treasury Bonds and US Dollar - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has risen rapidly, mainly due to concerns about US Treasury bond buyers this year. The US dollar has been affected by Trump's policies, and the US liquidity situation needs further tracking [3] Commodities - For industrial products, be vigilant about the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases is higher. The oil market supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the certainty of gold is relatively strong [3] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures. Pay attention to liquidity risks in the short - term and look for three signals of sentiment easing, and then focus on anti - inflation assets and A - shares after the market stabilizes [4] News - The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the introduction of policies such as optimizing tax - free shopping for outbound tourists. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on April 17th. The US - Japan trade negotiation will have the next round in a month [1][6]