数据证实消费者的担忧并非空穴来风。美国劳工部14日公布，美国7月份生产者价格指数（PPI）显著上涨，涨幅超出市场预期，显示美国 产业链上游面临新一轮通胀压力。 央视网消息：美国关税政策导致消费者对通胀的担忧加剧。美国密歇根大学15日公布，8月的美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为 58.6，低于7月的终值61.7。 密歇根大学表示，美国消费者对未来一年通胀的预期从7月的4.5%升至8月的4.9%，远高于目前2.7%的通胀水平。这反映出美国消费者对 关税影响的持续担忧，并对通胀的走向感到不安。 银率网公司高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克称："所以我认为这非常令人担忧，因为我们看到的是这种价格压力正在供应链的深处聚集，但 还没有完全释放给消费者。综合来看，通胀似乎是在3%的水平，而不是美联储确定的2%的目标。情况在变得更糟，而不是更好，可能还有更 多的压力正在传导。" 据美国高盛集团此前的研究显示，截至6月份，美国消费者消化了大约22%的关税成本，如果美国政府加征关税政策延续，这一数字可能 在未来上升到67%。 美国金融服务公司银率网公司高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克在接受媒体采访时表示，生产者价格指数上涨意味着目前有极 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices are affected by factors such as US policies, weather, and USDA reports, showing a volatile upward trend. Domestic soybean meal prices are also influenced by international prices and domestic supply and demand, with the price center rising. In the oil market, international oil prices are differentiated, with US soybean oil falling and Malaysian palm oil rising. Domestic oil prices are generally rising, but there are differences among varieties [6][59]. - Looking ahead to the next week, in the protein meal market, international soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestic soybean meal is also expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. In the oil market, international US soybean oil is volatile and domestic oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [112][113]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to expectations of improved US soybean export demand and hot and dry weather in some Midwestern farmlands, as well as the adjustment of positions by grain traders before the USDA report. The subsequent fall was due to profit - taking by investors and concerns about export demand. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market also first rose and then fell, with the price center rising [6]. 2. Export and Supply - related Data - US soybean export inspection volume exceeded market expectations, with a 18% decrease compared to the previous week but a 48% increase compared to the same period last year. As of August 7, 2025, the export inspection volume was 518,066 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 48,367,647 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [11]. 3. Weather and Planting Progress - In North America, most parts of the US are dry, which is beneficial for field operations but reduces soil moisture. Some areas have significant rainfall and strong thunderstorms. In Canada's prairie region, wet weather increases soil moisture but affects the early stage of small - grain cereal harvesting [26][30]. - As of August 10, 2025, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [22]. 4. Global Supply and Demand - For the US 2025/26 soybean season, the planting area is estimated to be 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres from July. The yield is estimated to be 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease from July. The ending inventory is estimated to be 290 million bushels, a decrease from July. For the 2024/25 season, the export and crush expectations of US soybeans are increased, and the ending inventory of US soybean oil is increased. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from July, and the ending inventory is decreased by 1.17 million tons to 124 million tons [32][33]. 5. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing profits have declined. As of the end of this week, the import soybean inventory at ports is about 6.8435 million tons, and the theoretical crush days are 19 days. The domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate is 62.56%, an increase of 1.25% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week [40][45]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, international oil prices were differentiated. US soybean oil oscillated downward due to factors such as the decline of international crude oil, the fall of US soybeans, and uncertain biodiesel policies. Malaysian palm oil oscillated upward, but there are doubts about the sustainability of its export growth. Domestic oils generally rose, with soybean oil rising due to increased import costs, palm oil following Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil first rising due to policies and then falling [59]. 2. International Oil - related Information - Indonesia may postpone the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan, which may ease concerns about palm oil supply shortages. From August 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 23.3% - 23.7% compared to the same period in July. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, exports were 1.309 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.1132 million tons [61][62]. 3. Domestic Oil - related Indicators - As of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6066 million tons, a decrease of 3400 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3079 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons; edible palm oil inventory was 526,200 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 772,500 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [78]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For protein meals, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled. For oils, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and palm oil are bullish, and the short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, with medium - term indicators bullish and long - term indicators entangled [112]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein meals: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestically, the soybean oil mill's startup rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory may decrease steadily. The market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. - Oils: Internationally, US soybean oil is volatile due to lack of positive news. Malaysian palm oil has pressure at around 4500. Domestically, oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [113].

此间媒体和专家评论说，汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国对汽车类产品 加征25%关税对日本出口影响巨大。为了对冲关税政策影响，日本汽车制造商被迫采取降价策略，这势 必挤压厂商的盈利空间。 日本汽车制造商中马自达和斯巴鲁在美国市场的销售对出口依赖度最高，受汽车关税的冲击最为严重。 马自达此前发表财报说，今年第二季度公司虽然在日本国内市场销量增长，但在最重要的盈利市场美国 市场销量下滑。导致公司当季归母净利润由去年同期的盈利498亿日元逆转为亏损421亿日元。 新华财经东京8月17日电（记者刘春燕）日本政府近期公布一系列经济数据，上市企业近来也密集披露 今年第二季度财报，共同印证了一个结果：特朗普汽车关税和"对等关税"政策重创日本汽车产业，掣肘 日本经济复苏。 财务省公布的贸易统计数据显示，4月至6月，受特朗普关税政策影响，日本对美出口连续3个月同比下 降，且降幅现扩大之势。由于美国汽车关税自4月起由2.5%大幅提升至27.5%，日本对美汽车出口额锐 减，6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7%。 《日本经济新闻》援引财务省数据报道说，6月日本国内对美汽车出口降幅最大的是九州地区，出口量 同 ...

美国关税政策导致美国消费者对通胀的担忧加剧。美国密歇根大学16日公布的报告显示，8月的美国密 歇根大学消费者信心指数呈现下滑，美国消费者对于美国未来通胀的预期升高，消费信心"正在恶化"。 消费支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观 的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。美国密歇根大学调查公布的消费者信心指数衡量美国消费者对整体经 济状况和自身财务状况的乐观或悲观程度，数值越高则越积极，越低则越消极。 数据证实消费者的担忧并非空穴来风。美国劳工部14日公布，美国7月份生产者价格指数（PPI）显著上 涨，涨幅超出市场预期，显示美国产业链上游面临新一轮通胀压力。劳工部数据显示，美国蔬菜批发价 格的涨幅惊人，6月至7月，新鲜蔬菜和干蔬菜批发价格大幅上涨38.9%，为2022年3月以来的最大涨 幅。根据美国农业部1月份发布的数据，美国超过三分之一的新鲜蔬菜依赖进口，业内人士认为蔬菜批 发价格大涨与美国关税政策有很大的关系。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 分析师：消费者应为进一步涨价做好准备 美国金融服务公司银率网公司高级经济分析师马克·哈姆里克在接受媒体采访时表示，生产者价格指数 上涨 ...

Group 1 - Trump expressed support for Ukraine ceding the Donbas region during a call with European leaders [1] - Zelensky will meet Trump in Washington on August 18 to discuss details of ending the Ukraine conflict [1][8] - European leaders have been invited to Washington for discussions with Zelensky and Trump [8] Group 2 - A consumer reported finding a cockroach in a sealed drink purchased from a Honey Snow Ice City store, leading to a refund but ongoing compensation negotiations [2] - The store's management is investigating how the cockroach entered the drink [2] Group 3 - Wang Yi will visit India for the 24th meeting on the China-India border issue [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction with Japanese officials visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, urging Japan to reflect on its historical actions [3] Group 4 - The total box office for the 2025 summer movie season has surpassed 95 billion yuan, with August's box office exceeding 35 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - A tragic accident in Shandong resulted in a van carrying 11 people plunging into the sea, with 6 confirmed dead [6] Group 6 - Over 10,000 flight attendants at Air Canada went on strike, leading to the suspension of all flights and a surge in ticket prices for routes to and from China [6] Group 7 - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide received FDA approval for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, expanding its therapeutic applications [9][10] Group 8 - Huawei and SAIC Motor's first collaborative vehicle, the Shangjie H5, is set to launch in September, featuring advanced driving assistance technology [11] Group 9 - Apple opened a new retail store in Shenzhen, attracting significant customer interest with over 1,000 people queuing for its opening [12][13] Group 10 - Longjiang Electric faced scrutiny from minority shareholders over a 26.6 billion yuan investment plan, but reaffirmed its commitment to high cash dividends [16][17] Group 11 - Konka officially integrated into China Resources Group, aiming to leverage resources for growth in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors [18][19] Group 12 - A tragic incident at a popular milk tea shop resulted in the death of an employee due to a ceiling collapse, raising safety concerns in the fast-expanding chain [20]

Financial Performance - Company reported total revenue of 2.345 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.35% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 480 million yuan, up 24.29% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1.252 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.91% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The gross margin was 54.42%, down 3.35% year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.38%, a decrease of 0.85% [1] - Accounts receivable increased by 45.8% year-on-year, raising concerns about cash flow management [1][3] Business Model and Strategy - Company relies heavily on research and marketing for its performance, indicating a need for thorough analysis of these driving factors [3] - The company has established over 20 subsidiaries globally, enhancing its local market presence and customer service capabilities [6] - The company has implemented a proactive strategy to mitigate the impact of tariff policies, maintaining a strong market position [6] Market Position and Investment Interest - The company is held by prominent fund managers, including Chen Hao from E Fund, who has recently increased his stake [4] - The most significant fund holding the company is the Bosera Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF, with a scale of 4.245 billion yuan [5] - Analysts expect the company's performance in 2025 to reach 818 million yuan, with an average earnings per share of 1.22 yuan [3] Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - The company has established production bases in Shenzhen, Vietnam, and North Carolina, USA, to optimize its supply chain [7] - A price increase of 7% to 10% for digital energy products in the US has been announced to offset the 10% tariff [7] - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in various global markets, anticipating continued growth in regions outside the US [6]

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期道通科技（688208）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入23.45亿元，同比上升27.35%，归母净利润4.8亿元，同比上升24.29%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营 业总收入12.52亿元，同比上升27.91%，第二季度归母净利润2.81亿元，同比上升7.32%。本报告期道通 科技应收账款上升，应收账款同比增幅达45.8%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率54.42%，同比减3.35%，净利率19.38%，同比减 0.85%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计3.57亿元，三费占营收比15.21%，同比减27.11%，每股净 资产5.24元，同比减24.77%，每股经营性现金流0.44元，同比减41.77%，每股收益0.73元，同比增 23.73% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 18.42亿 | 23.45亿 | 27.35% | | 归母净利润(元) | 3.87亿 | 4.8 Z | 24.29% | | 扣非净利润(元) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing the tariff rate to 50% on hundreds of derivative products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [2]. - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [2]. - The tariff on imported steel and aluminum was previously raised from 25% to 50% as announced on June 3 [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on imported steel and semiconductor chips within two weeks, with initial rates being low but potentially increasing to 200% or 300% as domestic manufacturing capabilities are established [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The tariffs are intended to pressure competitors into negotiations, suggesting that the high rates may not be final and could be adjusted downwards [1] - Industry experts believe that TSMC's investment pace in advanced processes is faster than Samsung's, which may influence the tariff discussions [1] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Trump's comments are viewed as informal, with expectations that companies will provide clearer commitments on their manufacturing timelines [1] - There is uncertainty regarding which companies, including TSMC, will receive exemptions from semiconductor tariffs under Section 232, and the specifics of investment amounts and exemption categories remain unclear [1]

分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《美国服务业或面临滞胀——全球经济 观察第 7 期》 2025-08-09 2. 《美国降息预期升温——全球经济观察 第 6 期》 2025-08-02 3. 《美国投资或转弱——全球经济观察第 5 期》 2025-07-27 4. 《美国消费仍具韧性——全球经济观察 第 4 期》 2025-07-19 5. 《美国低招聘、低裁员——全球经济观察 第 3 期》 2025-07-12 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.08.16 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：全球长期国债收益率普遍上升。股市方面，本周全球主 要股市普遍上涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达 克综指分别上涨 0.9%、1.7%和 0.8%，或受到通胀反弹不强、降息预期稳 固的提振。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率上行 6bp，或因密歇根消费者通胀 预期升温。商品方面，原油周内下跌，IEA 预测石油需求增速放缓。本周金价 走弱，为近两周以来新低。汇率方面，本周美元指数 ...