1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term adjustment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Short-term consolidation: Palm oil [1] - Short-term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] - Range oscillation: Rapeseed oil [1] - Cautiously bullish: Cotton [1] - Short-term rebound: Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: Sino-US soybean procurement has started, but the US market has questioned the optimistic export prospects of US soybeans recently. The weak year-on-year export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week-on-week but were higher year-on-year, with short-term supply temporarily sufficient. Before the release of the USDA December report, the market expects the report to be bearish, with the possibility of a month-on-month increase in the global and US soybean ending stocks. Domestic soybean meal fell yesterday. It is expected to remain in a bearish adjustment before the release of the USDA report [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year-on-year. Spot prices are reduced to destock during the off-season. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. The long-term supply and demand are relatively strong, but the near-term port inventory pressure is high. Rapeseed meal followed the decline in soybean meal prices yesterday. The short-term trend is expected to be in the range above 2,270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the USDA December report and the follow-up progress of Sino-Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Palm oil**: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 30 days of November remained weak, and the output decreased slightly month-on-month, with the decline less than that of exports. Floods occurred in Southeast Asia in mid-November, triggering market expectations of palm oil entering the production reduction season. Increased purchases from India boosted market sentiment. The futures price continued to consolidate at a high level after the rebound yesterday. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in November. As the data release approaches, be cautious about chasing long positions at high levels. For phased operations, pay attention to the opportunity to buy at low levels after the adjustment stabilizes [1][8]. - **Soybean oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month-on-month but was still higher than the five-year average. It closed slightly lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions of South American soybeans. It is expected to show a large-range trend this week [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory continued to decline month-on-month, but the import sources are diversified, including Australian and Russian rapeseed. The latest data shows that the Canadian rapeseed output in 2025 is higher than market expectations, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil closed lower yesterday. Attention should be paid to the previous low for technical support [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new planting season. The proportion of weather-related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to fluctuate. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and sales have continued to be relatively fast. The circulation of low-basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and cost support has increased. The cash flow of downstream textile enterprises has recovered in recent months, showing demand resilience. The narrowing decline in foreign trade in November further supported cotton prices. However, the upward trend is still restricted by high inventories and a dense hedging pressure area. For operations, consider buying on dips and continue to pay attention to the medium- to long-term moderate recovery opportunity after the supply pressure is digested [1][12]. - **Red dates**: At the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. As the peak season for new product listing and consumption approaches, market volatility will increase. High inventories still put significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a large reduction in new-season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. With the cooling weather, the spot price has stopped falling. Short-term rebound opportunities are worth attention [1][15]. - **Live pigs**: The futures market has rebounded due to disruptions in epidemic prevention and control and macro sentiment, but the above logic has shown differentiation in the price spreads of different contracts. Therefore, the January contract is more likely to be affected by short-term capital. In the January contract, the market has started to price in the expectations of the peak pickling season and the large-scale slaughter at the end of the month, so market volatility is expected to increase. For the January contract, due to expected trading, secondary position limits, and the sentiment influence of the March contract, short-term long positions should be avoided. The March contract lacks fundamental support, but there is intense capital competition. Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. Also, keep an eye on the spot price and pickling progress [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 1.52% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,107.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a decrease of 206,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.2749 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1552 million tons, a decrease of 184,400 tons or 2.51% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons or 3.43% from the previous week and an increase of 481,400 tons or 70.74% from the same period last year [3]. Rapeseed meal - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 1.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,474.74 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, an increase of 10 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Palm oil - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.57% [7]. - **Inventory data**: As of December 5, 2025 (week 49), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 683,700 tons, an increase of 30,200 tons or 4.62% from the previous week and an increase of 167,000 tons or 32.32% from the same period last year [8]. Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) was 13,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,009 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.09% [9]. - **Supply and demand data**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress reached 79%, and 1.237 million tons of new cotton had been inspected, with a progress of about 40.2%. In India, the daily new cotton listing was between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons had been purchased at the MSP. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress was 73.87%, and the non-main producing areas had started sowing the 2026 new cotton. In China, the new cotton picking was almost completed, with more than 4.74 million tons inspected. The new cotton sales progress continued to be relatively fast, and the new-season lint cost was basically locked between 14,600 and 15,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red dates - **Price data**: The futures price of the CJ2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common dates was 7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0 yuan or 4.00% [13]. - **Inventory data**: The latest 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory of red dates was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from the previous week and 270 tons lower than the same period [14]. Live pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2603) closed at 11,385 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 2.71% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 11,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.71% [16]. - **Supply and demand data**: In November, the breeding side actively slaughtered, with intense competition. The large-scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and the overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The supply pressure was expected to be gradually released around the Winter Solstice in December. In the medium term, the number of new-born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it was expected to complete the reduction target of 39.5 million by the end of the year. On the demand side, with the cooling weather, the pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions continued to increase, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate, pig - grain ratio, and fresh sales rate stopped falling and rebounded, gradually entering a period of high supply and demand [17].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 # 泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月9日 | | | | 臣沿 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8600 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8230 8266 | -36 | -0.44% | | Y2601 墓差 370 334 | 36 | 10.78% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 | 0 | ﺗ | | 仓单 22994 22769 | 225 | 0.99% | | 棕榈油 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 流跌 | | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8690 8740 | -50 | -0.57% | | 期价 P2601 8706 8770 | -64 | -0.73% | | 星差 P2601 -16 -30 | 14 | 46.67% | | 现货墓差报价 0 广东1月 01+50 01+50 | | - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2778元/吨，较前日变动-43元/吨，幅度-1.52%；菜粕2605合约2342元/吨，较前 日变动-35元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+292， 较前日变动+43；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+242，较前日变动+43；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3010元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M05+232，较前日变动+53。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2550元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+208，较前日变动+35。 近期市场资讯，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，阿根廷大豆播种进展依然落后。截至12月3日，阿根廷2025/26年度 大豆进度达到44.7%，高于一周前的36%，但是同比落后9%，比五年均值落后1.1%。咨询公司Patria Agronegocios 周六在一份声明中称，巴西大豆种植户已经基本完成2025/26年度作物的播种，大约91%的农田已经完成。 市场分析 当前供需 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 期货大幅下跌 豆粕现货稳中有跌 2025年12月8日大连玉米期货市场 1、CBOT豆类合约行情 周五CBOT大豆期货下跌，八周以来首次周线跌幅，市场对美国大豆的需求规模存在不确定性。 CBOT 1月大豆期货收跌14-1/4美分，结算价报每蒲式耳11.05-1/4美元。1月大豆期货周线累计下滑 2.8%，此前连续七周周线上涨。 CBOT 1月豆粕期货收跌3.80美元，结算价报每短吨307.40美元。 CBOT 1月豆油期货收跌0.10美分，结算价报每磅51.69美分。 2、大连豆粕期货市场 大连豆粕期货市场大幅下跌，主力合约2605价格低开收跌，收阴线，放量增仓。开盘价2821元，收盘价 2778元，跌45元，最高价2826元，最低价2770元，结算2793元，成交量1089811，持仓量1890767。 3、豆粕现货市场 今日国内豆粕现货价格稳中有跌，局部下跌10元/吨。中美经贸牵头人举行视频通话，双方围绕落实好 中美两国元首釜山会晤和11月24日通话重要共识，就下一步开展务实合作和妥善解决经贸领域彼此关 切，进行了深入、建设性的交流。周五，民间部门向中国出售46.2万吨美 ...

800 400 600 200 200 库存数据 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 02/01 01/01 饲料企业豆粕库存天数 全国主要油厂豆粕库存(万吨) ====== 2022 ====· 2023 - 2024 ----- 2020 ----- 2021 ------ 2022 ------ 2023 ----- 2024 - 2025 == 2025 150 18 [ 15 120 30 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) ----- 2020 ----- 2021 ----- 2022 ------ 2023 ===== 2020 ===== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 100 开机和压榨情况 10/07 11/07 12/08 06/05 07/06 08/06 ...

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月8日 | | | 王浅罐 | | Z0019938 | | 草畑 | | | | | | | | 12月5日 | 12月4日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8600 | 8570 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 | Y2601 8266 | 8254 | | 12 | 0.15% | | 墓差 | Y2601 334 | 316 | | 18 | 5.70% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 01+260 | 01+260 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22769 | 18269 | | 4500 | 24.63% | | 棕櫚溫 | | | | | | | | 12月5日 | 12月4日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 8740 广东24度 | 8640 | | 100 | 1.16% | | 期价 | P2601 8770 | 8୧୧୧ | | 104 | 1. ...

我农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 本周，玉米近月 2601 合约领涨，远期合约跟涨。1 月合约减仓，资金向 3 月和 | | | | 5 月合约转移，近月期价领涨、远期跟涨，期价以上涨打破震荡局面，价格恢复上 | | | | 行。近期中储粮哈尔滨库收购价格较高，对黑龙江产区价格直接形成支撑，黑龙 | | | | 江部分产区报价至 2100 元/吨以上。期货上涨，北港报价也有所上调。 山东深 | | | | 加工企业早间剩余车辆维持高位，部分企业继续窄幅 6-20 元/吨。河北、河南深 | | | | 加工企业价格保持稳定。贸易商收购价格保持坚挺，未跟随深加工企业价格频繁 | 震荡上涨 | | | 变动。当前华北玉米基层购销活跃度不强，供需维持动态平衡。 销区市场玉米 | | | | 价格继续窄幅上调。期货盘面继续上行，部分港口现货库存偏少，港口贸易商报 | | | | 价坚挺。饲料企业高价采买意愿不强，销售利润偏低，市场购销活跃度一般。技 | | | | 术上，现货玉米报价延续强势表现，期价结束 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains in a loose pattern, and downstream slaughterhouses' procurement is relatively smooth. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏量, and the supply pressure from large - scale pig farms is increasing. The downward space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. The second - fattening is cautious to enter the market, and there is no selling pressure from small and medium - sized farmers for now. The futures market is slightly at a premium to the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, and sentiment has a greater impact, but the demand lacks highlights, and the tug - of - war between upstream and downstream continues. The logic of capacity reduction in the futures market is still being traded. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can be held, and the spot market still exerts pressure, so the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether the procurement of US soybeans can meet the arrival of soybeans in China in March. Continue to pay attention to the trends of domestic procurement of US and Brazilian soybeans. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, it is dragged down by the potential negative factor of inventory increasing to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of the US soybean oil futures in the external market. The Malaysian palm oil may fluctuate horizontally around 4,100 ringgit in the short term. Pay close attention to the impact of production, export, and inventory news on the market. The Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a weak and volatile trend, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan, and there is a possibility and risk of a short - term break below. Pay close attention to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can stop falling effectively in the range of 8,350 - 8,500 yuan and then strengthen again following the Malaysian palm oil trend. For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry for soybean oil remains resilient. In the short term, due to the progress in the US - Russia negotiation, the decline in international crude oil may drag down the CBOT soybean oil, and there is some room for correction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, with an estimated import volume of 9.5 million tons in December. Factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the domestic soybean oil supply pattern remains abundant. Some traders are more willing to sell, which drags down the basis quotation, but the basis quotation has limited short - term fluctuation space due to the support of soybean import costs and traders' procurement costs [5]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, the arrival volume in the Northeast region continues to shrink, and the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks at all levels increases. Coupled with policy support for storage and the rising futures and port prices, the prices in the production area are pushed up. In the North China region, farmers sell for profit, and the external transportation increases slightly. The number of arriving vehicles remains high, and the price fluctuates slightly. Overall, the corn supply is in a short - term tight situation. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, and deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory, and their long - term enthusiasm for building inventories is not high. In summary, the short - term supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged, and the strong spot price in the Northeast region drives the futures price to a new high. Pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes, as a recovery may limit the price increase space [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower. Although the sugar price rebounded to some extent after reaching a five - year low last month, the expectation of a global sugar surplus this year limits the price increase. After the Indian government allowed sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 26 season, more than 100,000 tons of spot contracts have been signed and the transportation has started. Due to abundant rainfall this year, the sugarcane crushing work in India is in full swing. As of November 30, 2025, the national sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production are expected to increase significantly compared with last year. Overall, the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in the price of Yunnan sugar, and the impact of low - price sugar has also spread to the processed sugar and beet sugar fields. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak and volatile trend [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell to the lowest level in more than a week due to the dismal export sales report and the weak market sentiment. The USDA export sales report shows that the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year decreased by 39% compared with the previous week and 51% compared with the average of the previous four weeks. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming USDA weekly export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report. In the domestic market, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is completely finished, and the acquisition in the northern part is basically over, while the acquisition volume in the southern part is shrinking. As the cottonseed resources decrease, the acquisition price continues to fall. The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton spot is sluggish, but the pre - sales are being delivered one after another, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The spot sales basis is firm, and there is strong support for the Zhengzhou cotton price. In summary, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [12]. Egg Industry - Based on the previous chick replenishment and the base of last month's inventory, the number of laying hens in the laying period is likely to decline to some extent in December. Although the current inventory is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The market trading is dull, the downstream procurement has not started, the terminal consumption remains weak, and traders are not enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly purchasing on demand. The average inventory in the production and circulation links is about 1.06 days and 1.14 days respectively, and each link maintains a rigid - demand inventory. The egg supply is basically normal, the downstream digestion speed is slow, most traders have low confidence in the future market, the inventory in each link increases slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that the egg futures price will maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis increased by 64.58% to - 82; the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.46% to 11,870 yuan/ton; the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.91% to 11,385 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 11.49% to - 485; the main contract position decreased by 1.34% to 90,529; the number of warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 85 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.42% to 210,923; the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg; the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg; the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg; the weekly average slaughter weight increased by 0.32% to 129.22 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 8.90% to - 148 yuan/head; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 6.05% to - 249 yuan/head; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [2]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,060 yuan/ton; the price of M2605 decreased by 0.49% to 2,833 yuan/ton; the basis of M2605 increased by 6.57% to 227; the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot is m2601 - 20; the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 7.5% to 49; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 54.4% to 23,830 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.42% to 2,390 yuan/ton; the price of RM2605 decreased by 0.58% to 2,395 yuan/ton; the basis of RM2605 increased by 44.44% to - 5; the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 8.81% to 729; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [4]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.82% to 4,105 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean contract increased by 17.09% to - 199; the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,950 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean No. 2 contract decreased by 0.32% to 3,770 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract increased by 6.67% to 192; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.77% to 15,766 [4]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged at - 112; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2.99% to - 2; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 7.10% to 2.91; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract increased by 0.58% to 2.80; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 1.52% to 670; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged at 438 [4]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.58% to 8,570 yuan/ton; the price of Y2601 decreased by 0.39% to 8,254 yuan/ton; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 5.39% to 316; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 260; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 111.96% to 18,269 [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.92% to 8,640 yuan/ton; the price of P2601 decreased by 0.73% to 8,666 yuan/ton; the basis of P2601 decreased by 160.00% to - 26; the basis quotation of Guangdong in January is 01 + 50; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in January decreased by 1.66% to 9,042.2 yuan/ton; the import profit of Guangzhou Port in January increased by 19.12% to - 376 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 28.41% to 452 [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.80% to 9,970 yuan/ton; the price of Ol601 decreased by 0.96% to 9,618 yuan/ton; the basis of Ol601 increased by 3.83% to 352; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 270; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792 [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4.17% to 184; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil increased by 11.76% to - 30; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 20.96% to 181; the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30.00% to - 70; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.57% to - 626; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.10% to 1,400; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 4.28% to 1,364 [5]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 increased by 1.24% to 2,287 yuan/ton; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.43% to 2,310 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 43.90% to 23; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 76.67% to - 7; the bulk grain price at Shekou increased by 0.41% to 2,460 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 59; the CIF price decreased by 0.11% to 2,096 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3.51% to 364; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 11.52% to 1,083; the position increased by 4.76% to 2,346,433; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51% to 58,664 [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 1.09% to 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 100.00% to 0; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 39.29% to - 34; the 01 spread between starch and corn on the disk remained unchanged at 303; the profit of Shandong starch remained unchanged at 1; the position increased by 0.73% to 333,476; the number of warehouse receipts was not available [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 0.71% to 5,328 yuan/ton; the price of Sugar 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 5,263 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.07% to 14.91 cents/pound; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.80% to - 4; the position of the main contract decreased by 0.28% to 329,240; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0; the number of effective forecasts remained at 183 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5,390 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5,370 yuan/ton; the basis in Nanning increased by 3.25% to 127; the basis in Kunming increased by 3.88% to 107; the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.36% to 4,106 yuan/ton; the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.38% to 5,203 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased by 1.15% to - 1,284; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased by 5.08% to - 187 [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guang

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月4日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]