农产品期货

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农产品日报:现货整体上涨,豆粕偏强震荡-20250610
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:47
农产品日报 | 2025-06-10 现货整体上涨,豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3019元/吨,较前日变动+9元/吨,幅度+0.30%;菜粕2509合约2614元/吨,较前 日变动+6元/吨,幅度+0.23%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格2920元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差M09-99, 较前日变动+1;江苏地区豆粕现货2840元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差M09-179,较前日变动+1;广东地 区豆粕现货价格2840元/吨,较前日变动跌+40元/吨,现货基差M09-179,较前日变动+31。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2520元/吨,较前日变动-10元/吨,现货基差RM09-94,较前日变动-16。 近期市场资讯,Safras数据显示,截至6月6日,巴西农户已销售2024/25年度大豆64%,低于去年同期的71.8%和五 年均值76.9%。巴西农户将在三个月后开始播种新豆,产量预计为1.83亿吨,预售比例10.8%,仍低于去年同期以 及五年均值。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所报告,截至6月4日,阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收获进度为88.7%,比 ...
《农产品》日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:14
| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | 友朋友 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月9日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | | 票 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月6日 | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8090 | 8030 | ୧୦ | 0.75% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7438 | 7404 | 34 | 0.46% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 652 | 626 | 26 | 4.15% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+280 | 09+280 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | 17822 | 17822 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | elect | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8600 | 8530 | 70 | 0.82% | | | 期价 | P ...
农产品日报-20250606
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 06:17
农产品日报(2025 年 6 月 6 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四,玉米 7 月合约减仓上行,期价在 40 日均线处获得支撑,当日以小阳线收 | | | | 盘。现货市场中,因产区余粮有限,玉米现货报价维持偏强表现。目前,东北产 | | | | 区余粮已相对较少,虽走货情况相对一般,但贸易商低价出货意向一般,报价维 | | | | 持在相对较高的水平。华北地区玉米继续震荡运行。山东深加工企业玉米价格有 | | | | 涨有跌,价格变化幅度在 10-20 元/吨。东北粮源继续补充华北市场,市场整体 | | | 玉米 | 供应量尚可。从市场心态来看,受期货价格下跌影响,玉米看涨预期减弱。销区 | 震荡 | | | 市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂时平稳,端午节后市场购销活跃 | | | | 度不高,新季小麦热度较高,部分下游饲料企业采购小麦拉长玉米头寸。技术上, | | | | 玉米 7 月合约在长短期均线粘合的支撑位企稳,期价短期呈现偏强表现,暂短线 | | | | 参与。 | | | | 周四,CBOT 大豆上涨,创一周以 ...
农产品日报:需求持续疲软,猪价震荡运行-20250606
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 03:03
农产品日报 | 2025-06-06 需求持续疲软,猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13485元/吨,较前交易日变动-5.00元/吨,幅度-0.04%。现货方面,河南地区外 三元生猪价格14.03元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤,现货基差 LH09+545,较前交易日变动-175;江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 14.42元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤,现货基差LH09+935,较前交易日变动-75;四川地 区外三元生猪价格14.00元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤,现货基差LH09+515,较前交易日变动-75。 据农业农村部监测,6月5日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.50,比昨天上升0.06个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.63,比昨天上升0.07个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.70元/公斤,比昨天下降0.2%;牛肉64.44 元/公斤,比昨天上升1.5%;羊肉59.76元/公斤,比昨天上升1.2%;鸡蛋7.76元/公斤,比昨天上升0.8%;白条鸡17.54 元/公斤,比昨天上升1.1%。 市场分析 谨 ...
《农产品》日报-20250605
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 03:32
Group 1: Oils and Fats Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are range - bound, with high inventory expectations suppressing the market. Domestic palm oil futures are also in high - level shock adjustment. For soybean oil, international palm oil price advantage and potential negative US biodiesel policies are dragging down the market. With large soybean arrivals and high factory开机 rates in June, soybean oil inventory will continue to increase, and the spot basis will decline [1]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price remained unchanged at 8050 yuan in Jiangsu on June 4. Futures price (Y2509) dropped 0.35% to 7402 yuan. Basis increased by 4.18% to 648 yuan. Warehouse receipts increased by 6.12% to 18202 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong dropped 1.71% to 8600 yuan. Futures price (P2509) fell 0.50% to 7976 yuan. Basis decreased by 14.99% to 624 yuan. The盘面 import cost dropped 0.89%, and the盘面 import profit increased 5.18% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.92% to 9320 yuan. Futures price (O1509) fell 1.05% to 8856 yuan. Basis decreased by 28.62% to 464 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread increased 21.43% to - 550 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 12.30% to - 442 yuan [1]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar, which is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern. Although raw sugar has not fully entered the domestic market, future import rhythm is the focus. Domestic sugar supply - demand is generally loosening, and long - term supply increase will suppress sugar prices [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 increased 0.12% to 5624 yuan/ton, and sugar 2509 increased 0.28% to 5748 yuan/ton. The 1 - 9 spread decreased 7.83% to - 124 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased 1.78% to 335901, and the warehouse receipts decreased 1.40% to 30300 [3]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning's price remained unchanged at 2090 yuan, while Kunming's price dropped 0.67% to 5910 yuan. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic prices also changed [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 11.63% and 26.07% respectively. The national cumulative sales ratio increased 12.97% to 65.22%, and the industrial inventory decreased 8.20% to 386.26 million tons [3]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with falling product prices, slightly lower开机 rates, and rising inventory. However, the spot basis is still strong, and there are concerns about the end - of - period available inventory. Short - term domestic cotton prices may be in a weak - shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the macro and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2509 increased 0.04% to 13265 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 remained unchanged at 13320 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased 8.33% to - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased 2.55% to 525386, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.77% to 10977 [6]. - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang's arrival price (3128B) dropped 0.10% to 14431 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) dropped 0.06% to 14544 yuan [6]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory decreased 7.7% to 383.40, and the industrial inventory decreased 2.6% to 92.90. The import volume decreased 14.3% to 6.00 million tons [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season has weakened the off - season demand. The egg market's supply - demand imbalance may reach a peak, and egg prices are expected to be weak [9]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The egg 09 contract increased 0.21% to 3730 yuan/500KG, and the egg 07 contract decreased 0.69% to 2877 yuan/500KG. The basis decreased 76.00% to - 6 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread increased 3.39% to 853 [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of day - old chicks decreased 1.20% to 4.10 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens decreased 6.45% to 4.79 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio increased 0.80% to 2.53, and the breeding profit increased 7.32% to - 15.96 yuan/feather [9]. Group 5: Meal and Oilseed Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, but the market is worried about the impact of tariff policies on demand. Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic cost of soybean meal has support. With sufficient soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill开机 rates, the supply pressure in the domestic market will increase. Two types of meal are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and the main soybean meal contract is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3000 yuan [13]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2900 yuan. The futures price (M2509) increased 0.14% to 2939 yuan. The basis decreased 11.43% to - 39 yuan. The Brazilian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 21.7% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu dropped 3.54% to 2450 yuan. The futures price (RM2509) decreased 0.55% to 2543 yuan. The basis decreased 447.06% to - 93 yuan. The Canadian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 336.36% [13]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 3640 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased 3.78% to 25660 [13]. - **Spreads**: For example, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased 25.00% to 450 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 4.76% to 396 yuan [13]. Group 6: Pork Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs fluctuates slightly. The slaughter weight is decreasing, and the secondary fattening's impact is limited. The supply - demand situation has limited improvement, and the demand after the Dragon Boat Festival is weak. Although there are still breeding profits, the market's ability to expand production is cautious. The upward and downward trends of the pig price are both limited, and attention should be paid to the support level of 13500 yuan on the futures market [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract's basis decreased 9.76% to 740 yuan/ton. The 2507 contract increased 0.34% to 13255 yuan, and the 2509 contract decreased 0.15% to 13490 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread decreased 21.67% to 235 yuan. The main contract's open interest increased 1.55% to 78586 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions changed slightly. The daily slaughter volume decreased 0.95% to 142950 heads. The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 20.60 yuan, and the weekly price of piglets and sows also remained unchanged [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased 26.05% to 36 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased 425.34% to - 84 yuan/head. The number of fertile sows decreased 0.02% to 4038 million heads [16]. Group 7: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The remaining grain at the grass - roots level has been mostly sold. Traders' inventory is tight, and they are reluctant to sell, making the corn price easy to rise and difficult to fall. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are reducing production to destock, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap will support the corn price, but in the short - term, the concentrated listing of wheat will limit the corn's demand. The corn price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy - related releases [19][21]. Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: Corn 2507 increased 0.34% to 2333 yuan/ton. The basis of Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased 160.00% to - 3 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 14.81% to - 23 yuan. The open interest decreased 1.87% to 1923031, and the warehouse receipts increased 0.46% to 217020 [19]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2507 increased 0.49% to 2664 yuan/ton. The basis decreased 33.33% to 26 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 9.21% to - 75 yuan. The open interest increased 0.55% to 325283, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.21% to 24421 [19].
农产品日报:现货累库加快,豆粕偏弱震荡-20250605
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:45
农产品日报 | 2025-06-05 现货累库加快,豆粕偏弱震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2939元/吨,较前日变动+4元/吨,幅度+0.14%;菜粕2509合约2543元/吨,较前 日变动-14元/吨,幅度-0.55%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨,较前日变动-10元/吨,现货基差M09+-79, 较前日变动-14;江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨,较前日变动-20元/吨,现货基差M09-159,较前日变动-24;广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨,较前日变动跌-10元/吨,现货基差M09-159,较前日变动-14。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2480元/吨,较前日变动-20元/吨,现货基差RM09-63,较前日变动-6。 近期市场资讯, 美国农业部作物进展周报显示,截至6月1日,美国大豆播种进度达到84%,高于前一周的76%, 也高于五年均值80%。大豆出苗率为63%,高于前一周的50%,也高于历史均值57%。本周首次发布的大豆优良率 为67%,低于市场预期的68%。咨询机构StoneX调查数据显示,巴西2024/25年度大豆产量确认为1.68亿吨,创下新 ...
菜油大跌、苹果上涨
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 12:04
菜油暴跌,因菜油库存高企,同时中加经贸关系或有缓和,菜籽 进口有回升潜力,菜系后续供应有宽松预期,菜油期价承压大幅下跌, 后市料偏弱运行。苹果持续回升,库存偏低以及新季苹果减产预期支 撑苹果期价走高。玉米回升,虽然小麦替代施压玉米价格,但是玉米 产区余粮告罄,供应偏紧,支撑玉米价格。生猪和鸡蛋持续下跌,养 殖端存栏高企以及下游需求偏弱持续施压期价走低。豆粕窄幅震荡, 进口豆集中到港,油厂开机回升,豆粕供应增大,后市豆粕或将承压 下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 菜油: 大幅下跌 菜油大跌、苹果上涨 一、农产品板块综述 焦点关注:菜油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到库存高位以及中 加经贸关系可能缓和的利空压力: 1.菜油库存处于高位,据 Mysteel 调研显示,截至 5月 30日,菜 油库存总量为 76.9 万吨,环比增加 0.40%,同比增加 91.77%。高库 存压制菜油期价走低。同时中国和加拿大经贸关系可能缓和,市场预 期后续菜系供应宽松,亦令菜油承压大跌。 2.菜油主力 2509 合约暴跌远离均线系统,MACD 死叉后绿柱扩大, 技术偏弱,策略上轻仓空单,菜油主力2509合约支撑 9000,阻力 9 ...
农产品日报:消费需求转弱,猪价偏弱震荡-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:58
农产品日报 | 2025-06-04 消费需求转弱,猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13510元/吨,较前交易日变动-95.00元/吨,幅度-0.70%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.40元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤,现货基差 LH09+890,较前交易日变动-25;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.60元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤,现货基差LH09+1090,较前交易日变动-105;四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.15元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH09+640,较前交易日变动+95。 据农业农村部监测,6月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.73,比节前下降0.42个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.89,比节前下降0.49个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.59元/公斤,比节前下降0.3%;牛肉63.86 元/公斤,比节前上升0.6%;羊肉59.77元/公斤,比节前上升0.8%;鸡蛋7.61元/公斤,比节前下降2.2%;白条鸡17.22 元/公斤,比节前下降2.1%。 市场分析 ...
农产品日报:现货价格下调,豆粕偏弱震荡-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:45
农产品日报 | 2025-06-04 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨,较前日变动-33元/吨,幅度-1.11%;菜粕2509合约2557元/吨,较前 日变动-80元/吨,幅度-3.03%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格2870元/吨,较前日变动-70元/吨,现货基差M09+-65, 较前日变动-37;江苏地区豆粕现货2800元/吨,较前日变动-30元/吨,现货基差M09-135,较前日变动+3;广东地 区豆粕现货价格2790元/吨,较前日变动跌-40元/吨,现货基差M09-145,较前日变动-7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2500 元/吨,较前日变动-90元/吨,现货基差RM09-57,较前日变动-10。 近期市场资讯,美国农业部出口检验报告显示,美国大豆出口检验量较一周前增长34%,但是比去年同期减少26%。 截至5月29日的一周,美国大豆出口检验量为26.8万吨,上周为20万吨,去年同期为36.1万吨。2024/25年度迄今美 国大豆出口检验总量达到4461万吨,同比增长10.7%,达到全年出口目标的88.6%,上周是88.1%。 市场分析 国内方面,近几月处于巴西大豆到港 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250604
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:38
农产品早报 2025-06-04 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆小幅上涨,受原油上涨带动,美豆种植及天气情况偏好限制涨幅。国内豆粕现货下跌,因压榨 量处于高位,供应宽松,华东低价报 2800 元/吨。MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存达 700 万吨,油厂豆 粕库存稍低为 29 万吨,后续豆粕、大豆预计仍然维持累库局面,因前期到港开机延迟,近期下游在油 厂开机后补库,表观消费较好,预计油厂库存压力延迟到 6 月中下旬或 7 月显现。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好,覆盖绝大部分产区,天气暂无明显问题。巴西升贴水近期有所上调,对冲 美豆跌幅,大豆到港成本稳定。25/26 年度美豆面积下降,单产的扰动使得总产量容易下调,美豆如果 没有宏观走弱的驱动,新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、 全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 【交易策略】 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@ ...