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农产品日报:现货涨跌互现,豆粕震荡运行-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates but high soybean and soybean meal inventories. Downstream demand is mainly for rolling replenishment, and the supply is loose. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] - For corn, new corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China, with an overall increasing production. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have weak inventory - building intentions, and the supply is slightly loose. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory - building intentions [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 粕类 (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.47%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of November 5, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area was 4.4% of the total expected area, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year, and the estimated planting area was 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis - The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates but high inventories. Downstream demand is for rolling replenishment, and the supply is loose. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2164 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.70%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.69%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market News: Brazil exported 6.5 million tons of corn in October, a 1% year - on - year increase, with an average daily export volume of 295,000 tons, also a 1% increase [3] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China, with an overall increasing production. There will be another wave of supply in Jilin and Inner Mongolia [4] - Demand: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have weak inventory - building intentions and are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The supply is slightly loose, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory - building intentions [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]
农产品日报:需求仍显疲软,猪价维持震荡-20251111
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:51
农产品日报 | 2025-11-11 需求仍显疲软,猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 10月份入场的二次育肥预计出栏时间会在冬至前后,如果价格下降或将有一定提前出栏的风险。从目前的生猪存 栏体重来看未来生猪供应仍处于过剩状态,未来叠加二次育肥的出栏会进一步增加供应压力,整体供强需弱格局 难改。 策略 谨慎偏空 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11955元/吨,较前交易日变动+90.00元/吨,幅度+0.76%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.14元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤,现货基差 LH01+185,较前交易日变动+10;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.24元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤,现货基差LH01+285,较前交易日变动+90;四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.53元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH01-425,较前交易日变动-20。 据农业农村部监测,11月10日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.58,比上周五上升0.34个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为127.66,比上周五上升0.39个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉 ...
光大期货农产品日报-20251107
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 08:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Hogs: Sideways [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are expected to continue rebounding due to the breakthrough of the bottom pattern and the support from the spot market. The downstream feed enterprises are purchasing as needed and remaining cautious in the long - term [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic protein meal is strong, but the sufficient supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal limits the upside space. A strategy of long futures + selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [1]. - Oils are experiencing a short - term rebound. The short - term long strategy can be considered, but the high inventory of the three major oils remains a factor [1]. - Egg futures prices are continuing to rebound. The expected decline in future production capacity supports the futures market. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes for trading opportunities [1]. - Hog futures show a pattern of far - month strength and near - month weakness. The short - term price is at a low level, but the long - term long position of the far - month 2609 contract is a market focus [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Argentina's oilseed workers' union and the industry association reached an agreement on salary increases [3]. - On November 6, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market decreased by 0.7% [3]. - The CNF price and import cost of US soybeans for December shipment are higher than those of Brazilian soybeans [3]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][20][24] Group 5: Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].
农产品日报:标猪供应增加,猪价震荡调整-20251106
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:11
Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of standard pigs is increasing, and pig prices are fluctuating and adjusting. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change due to factors such as future supply pressure and potential over - supply at the end of the year [1][2] - For eggs, the situation of oversupply persists as new grain is concentrated on the market, and enterprises have low inventory and weak willingness to build up stocks. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory strength [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,945 yuan/ton, a change of +260.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +2.23% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.85 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.96 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.46 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.17 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On November 5th, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 124.97, up 0.01 points from yesterday. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, up 0.9% from yesterday [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3,217 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +73.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of +2.32% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.69 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.76 yuan/jin, a change of +0.07 yuan/jin [3] - Inventory: On November 5th, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.13 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from yesterday, a decrease of 1.74%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, unchanged from yesterday [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig - The inventory of large and medium - sized pigs over 5 months old nationwide decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed by 2.4%. The number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year, with a significant increase in large - scale farms, indicating obvious long - term supply pressure [2] Egg - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have relatively low inventory, weak willingness to build up stocks, and a strong wait - and - see attitude, with spot - purchasing as the main trend [4]
农产品日报:油厂开机率下滑,豆粕偏强震荡-20251106
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 03:11
农产品日报 | 2025-11-06 油厂开机率下滑,豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 政策变化 玉米观点 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3073元/吨,较前日变动+58元/吨,幅度+1.92%;菜粕2601合约2537元/吨,较前 日变动+40元/吨,幅度+1.60%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差M01-3, 较前日变动-48;江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨,较前日变动+40元/吨,现货基差M01-63,较前日变动-18;广东地 区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨,较前日变动跌+40元/吨,现货基差M01-53,较前日变动-18。福建地区菜粕现货价格2720 元/吨,较前日变动+30元/吨,现货基差RM01+183,较前日变动-10。 近期市场资讯,11月3日,商品经纪公司StoneX称,就2025/26年度大豆作物而言,11月产量预估较10月的估值上调 了0.1%,预计将达到1.789亿吨。11月4日,巴拉那州农村经济部发布的数据显示,本周巴拉那州2025/26年度大豆 种植面积已达预计面积的79%,较上周上升8个百分点。去年同期大豆种植率为85% ...
农产品日报:美豆持续上涨,豆粕宽幅震荡-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:13
农产品日报 | 2025-11-05 美豆持续上涨,豆粕宽幅震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨,较前日变动-11元/吨,幅度-0.36%;菜粕2601合约2497元/吨,较前 日变动+6元/吨,幅度+0.24%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨,较前日变动-10元/吨,现货基差M01+45, 较前日变动+1;江苏地区豆粕现货2970元/吨,较前日变动-20元/吨,现货基差M01-45,较前日变动-9;广东地区 豆粕现货价格2980元/吨,较前日变动跌-10元/吨,现货基差M01-35,较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2690 元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差RM01+193,较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯,11月3日,美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示,截至2025年10月30日当周,美国大豆出口检 验量为96.5万吨,此前市场预估为870-140万吨,前一周修正后为116万吨,初值为106万吨。11月3日,农业咨询机 构AgRural称,截至上周四,巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到预期播种面积的47%,不及去年同期的54%,前一 ...
农产品日报:基本面驱动仍然向下,原糖期价再度收低-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the upside of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as potential entry of hedging positions after price increases, weak downstream demand, and concentrated new cotton listing. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and consumption resilience, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [2][3] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. For domestic sugar, there is an expectation of increased production in the new season, and the price is near the cost line. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains loose with high port inventories, and demand is weak both globally and domestically. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter should be noted [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,640 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of October 31, 2025/26 in Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 688,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% year - on - year [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the amount of US cotton that China will purchase is unclear. The release of key data is delayed, and there is a short - term supply pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the new - season cotton market starts with low inventory, and the supply is supplemented by new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but there are factors such as potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - In the short - term, there is a possibility of a callback. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Conab estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season would be 4.134 million tons, higher than the previous forecast [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under pressure from oversupply. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short - term, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle [5] Strategy - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited by factors such as cost and policies. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5288 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import pulp spot market prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on the overall supply pattern, and domestic port inventories remain high. Demand: Consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing prices. Even in the peak season, downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20251105
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2] - Soybean oil: Adjustment of US soybeans, low - level oscillation [2] - Soybean meal: Adjustment and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Adjustment and oscillation [2] - Corn: Oscillatory operation [2] - Sugar: Oscillatory and weakening [2] - Cotton: Affected by the overall weak trend of the commodity market [2] - Eggs: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Pigs: Contradictions start to be released, adopt a large reverse - spread strategy [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,616 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; night session was 8,654 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,108 yuan/ton, down 0.02%; night session was 8,116 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to soar 3.5% to 244 million tons. StoneX lowered the US 2025 soybean yield forecast. [5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4055 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; night session was 4042 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. DCE soybean meal 2601's closing price (day session) was 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; night session was 3014 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 4, CBOT soybeans fell from a 16 - month high due to unclear progress in Chinese purchases. [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [13] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,135 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; night session was 2,140 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices increased, while Guangdong Shekou prices decreased. [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price was 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.47. Mainstream spot price was 5690 yuan/ton, down 10. [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's September sugar production increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's September sugar imports were 55 million tons. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 0.48%; night session was 13480 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. [23] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was fair, and some low - price transactions were better. Cotton yarn sales were slow, and some weaving factories may cut production in November. [24] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,144 yuan/500 kilograms, down 0.16%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,492 yuan/500 kilograms, down 0.12%. [28] - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28] Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price was 11980 yuan/ton, down 250. Sichuan's spot price was 11650 yuan/ton, down 350. [30] - **Market Information**: New delivery warehouses were added. September national feed production increased. [32] - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 2 [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK601's closing price was 7,812 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. PK603's closing price was 7,866 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: Prices in most peanut - producing areas were stable, with low supply and general inquiries. [36] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37]
五矿期货农产品早报:2025-11-05-20251105
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:42
Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]
农产品日报:栖霞晚富士扎点收购,崔尔庄红枣陈货更受青睐-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Apple: The new - season Fuji apple's storage work has started. Due to continuous rainfall, the storage volume is expected to be lower than last year. The market shows a "two - tiered" pattern, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm in the short term, and the storage volume and structure being key factors for future market trends [3][4] - Red dates: As red dates are about to be harvested, the futures prices have dropped significantly, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and actual yields [8] Summary by Sections Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9104 yuan/ton, a change of - 134 yuan/ton or - 1.45% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP01 - 1604 for Qixia and AP01 - 804 for Luochuan both changed + 134 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The storage work in late Fuji producing areas continues. In Shandong, the ground transactions are increasing, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm. In Shaanxi, the storage work is gradually starting, and in Gansu, it is almost finished. The prices vary by quality, and the market is expected to remain "two - tiered" in the short term. The storage progress has slightly accelerated [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and declined yesterday. The ground transactions are entering the later stage, with a "two - tiered" market pattern. High - quality goods prices are expected to remain stable and firm. The storage work in the west is slow, while in Shandong, it is concentrated after the Frost's Descent and also slow [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Due to continuous rainfall, the expected storage volume in November is lower than last year [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10280 yuan/ton, a change of + 135 yuan/ton or + 1.33% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 880 changed - 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In Xinjiang, the purchase progress varies by region. Some areas have basically completed the purchase, while others are still in progress. The purchase price is based on quality. In the Hebei market, the price has slightly decreased, and the market mainly trades old goods. In the Guangdong market, the price is stable [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose significantly yesterday. The purchase in Xinjiang is at a critical stage. The downstream market has weak demand, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has decreased. The price in the Hebei market has slightly declined [7] Strategy - Neutral. With red dates about to be harvested, the futures price has dropped significantly, and attention should be paid to purchase price changes and actual yields [8]