Market Performance Review - In November, all major stock indices experienced declines, with the adjustment range expanding compared to the previous month. As of November 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.23% [4][13] - The market faced external disturbances, leading to increased downward pressure, particularly after the Federal Reserve hinted at no interest rate cuts in December and concerns over valuation bubbles in the overseas AI industry [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests a cautious approach, waiting for triggers for a spring market rally. It notes that the current market phase is characterized by a lack of positive guidance, making it difficult for the market to transition smoothly from the first phase of the bull market to the second [5][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy direction in determining market style, recommending a focus on commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors for December, given recent policy developments and upcoming rocket launches [6][32] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed resilience, with the top-performing industries in November being comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). In contrast, technology and growth sectors like computers and automobiles faced significant declines [17][19] - The report highlights a shift towards defensive strategies, as previously strong sectors like technology continue to adjust while traditional defensive sectors outperform [17][19] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report indicates a slight recovery in personal investor sentiment, with the sentiment index reaching 2.24% as of November 28, although overall sentiment declined throughout November [25][27] - Financing sentiment has also decreased, with net outflows observed in financing accounts, indicating a retreat of high-risk capital from the market [27][28]

10月份内，担纲整体增长"主力"的是货币基金，在收益率持续走低的背景下单月规模依旧上涨3855.36 亿元；此外QDII基金无论是净值还是规模均有显著增长；而在权益市场震荡的背景下，权益基金整体 规模有所下滑，债基因被多类机构减持，单月规模降幅超过1000亿元。 权益基金、债基规模略降 10月内，各大指数在达到阶段性高位后开始震荡，沪指单月上涨1.85%，深证成指跌约1.1%，在这一背 景下，权益型基金总体规模有所下滑。 据统计，截至10月底，股票基金总规模为5.93万亿元，与9月底相比减少289.24亿元；混合基金的总规模 为4.26万亿元，环比减少548.12亿元，二者降幅分别为0.49%和1.27%。 但从份额来看，股票型基金份额增加了656.85亿份，环比增加1.79%，而混合基金份额减少127.46亿 份，环比降0.44%。 受股债"跷跷板"等多重因素影响，近期债基表现持续不振，而10月份债基也有明显降幅。截至10月底， 债券基金总规模为7.10万亿元，与9月底相比下降1043.22亿元，环比降幅1.45%；债券基金总份额为5.63 万亿份，与9月底相比下降1338.91亿份，环比降幅2.32%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "migration of residents' deposits" is gaining traction, with some analysts suggesting it could boost the stock market, although data indicates that the trend is more towards insurance products rather than direct stock investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Discussion - The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated around 3900 points since mid-November, with increasing discussions about the potential migration of residents' deposits into the stock market [1]. - Notable private equity founder Li has claimed that the migration of residents' deposits could stimulate the stock market, raising market interest [1]. - However, banks report no significant decrease in residents' deposits, contradicting the notion of a widespread "deposit migration" [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Recent data shows a notable increase in fund sales at banks, with a reported 89% growth in fund sales compared to the same period last year [3]. - Index-linked fixed income products are currently the most popular among investors, while direct investments in sectors like liquor and healthcare are less favored [3]. - Insurance products, particularly dividend and savings insurance, have seen substantial sales growth, with some banks reporting a doubling in sales compared to last year [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth, with banks noting a 13% increase in insurance sales in Q3 compared to Q2 [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current investment behavior of high-net-worth individuals leans towards conservative options like insurance rather than direct stock market investments [7]. - Projections indicate that the scale of bank wealth management products could grow by at least 10% by 2026, reaching approximately 38 trillion yuan [8].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant drop in RMB deposits in July 2023, with a total decrease of 1.12 trillion yuan, marking a rare monthly decline compared to previous years [2] - The decline in deposits is attributed to various factors, including seasonal influences, reduced loan demand, and a shift in residents' financial behavior towards early mortgage repayments [4][6] - The overall deposit growth for the first seven months of 2023 was 18.98 trillion yuan, but the sharp drop in July affected the growth rate [2][6] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 809.3 billion yuan, while corporate deposits fell by 1.53 trillion yuan, with fiscal deposits increasing by 907.8 billion yuan [2] - The decline in deposits is linked to a cooling demand for loans, as evidenced by a 200.7 billion yuan drop in household loans [2][4] - Seasonal factors, such as banks' assessment pressures at the end of the quarter, contributed to the short-term movement of funds [2][6] Group 2: Early Mortgage Repayment - Early mortgage repayments have become a significant driver of fund outflow, with residents opting to pay off loans to save on interest costs [4] - The average interest saved by paying off a 1 million yuan loan early can reach up to 73 million yuan [4] - The trend of early repayments is expected to moderate in the second half of 2023 as mortgage rates decrease [6] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The low interest rates have led to a shift in funds from deposits to wealth management products and the stock market, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [6] - The wealth management market is projected to grow from 25.34 trillion yuan in June 2023 to 30.67 trillion yuan by mid-2025, with an average annualized return of 3.39% [8] - Despite the growth in wealth management, there are concerns about risks associated with these products, prompting residents to be cautious in their investments [8] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Economic Impact - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales in July increasing by only 2.5%, below expectations [4] - The savings rate has climbed to 35%, indicating a preference for saving over spending, which could have a dampening effect on economic growth [4][10] - The overall economic outlook suggests a need for policies to stimulate consumption and investment, as the GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5% [12][14]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong financial nation and the new historical mission for the wealth management industry, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Industry Dynamics - Wealth management serves as a crucial link between the funding and asset sides, playing a vital role in providing financial services to the real economy and achieving inclusive finance [2] - The rapid growth of household wealth in China is accompanied by a significant internal structural adjustment, notably the trend of "deposit migration" from traditional bank savings to wealth management products, funds, and capital markets [4] - The current phase of deposit migration is seen as a necessary outcome of optimizing asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, with the trend expected to continue as market activity increases [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The fundamental change in the interest rate environment is identified as the core driver of the deposit migration trend, with current bank deposit rates significantly lower than those from 2019 to 2021 [6] - The total amount of deposits in China is approximately 1.5 times the total market capitalization of A-shares, indicating substantial potential for capital market inflows [6] Group 3: Balancing Client Expectations - Clients often express a desire for both high returns and low volatility, creating a mismatch with financial realities, which poses challenges for asset management institutions [7] - Solutions to this challenge include setting reasonable expectations and optimizing strategies, such as designing appropriate product structures to smooth short-term volatility [7] Group 4: Investor Education and Engagement - The concept of "investor companionship" is gaining traction, focusing on helping clients understand products and manage risks effectively, especially during market fluctuations [9] - Continuous and detailed investor engagement is crucial for smoothing client emotions and achieving long-term value [9] Group 5: Future Competitiveness in Wealth Management - The competition in the wealth management industry is shifting from scale expansion to a deep competition in core capabilities, including global asset allocation, digital operations, and professional talent [10] - Asset management institutions are encouraged to enhance their strategies and products to meet the growing demand for cross-border investments [10] Group 6: Long-term Value Creation - Key directions for the future include establishing a client-centered investment management system, improving service quality, and leveraging technology for business development [11] - The industry is entering a new growth era, where focusing on service, professional capabilities, and genuine client engagement will be essential for navigating challenges and creating long-term value [11]

【环球网财经综合报道】曾备受储户青睐的中长期大额存单，正从银行货架悄然"消失"。记者调查发现，目前六大国有银行及多家股份制银行手机App上已 无5年期大额存单在售。不仅如此，3年期大额存单也普遍"额度紧张"甚至"售罄"，部分银行仅保留2年期及以下产品。 某股份制银行人士分析称，大额存单特别是中长期产品，是银行成本较高的负债来源。在息差不断收窄的压力下，压降此类产品是银行优化负债结构的直接 手段。此外，此举也能避免在未来利率进一步走低时，被长期高息存款锁定成本。 这一调整趋势已从大行蔓延至地方性中小银行。近期，内蒙古、浙江、云南、河南等多地村镇银行纷纷下调人民币存款利率，部分银行甚至直接取消了5年 期定存产品。 随着传统存款产品吸引力下降，居民储蓄正呈现出明显的"搬家效应"。央行发布的《2025年第三季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》显示，倾向于"更多储蓄"的居 民占比下降，而倾向于"更多投资"的居民占比显著提升5.6个百分点。其中，"银行非保本理财"成为居民最偏爱的投资方式。 资金流向的变化在数据上得到印证。银行业理财登记托管中心报告显示，截至2025年三季度末，中国银行业理财市场存续规模达32.13万亿元，同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), once seen as a tool for attracting deposits, are gradually disappearing from the market, indicating a shift in banks' strategies to optimize their liability structures and stabilize net interest margins [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Disappearance of Long-term Large-denomination CDs - Major banks have removed 5-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some still having 3-year CDs available, but these are often marked as "sold out" or "in short supply" [2][3]. - The interest rates for the remaining 3-year large-denomination CDs are concentrated between 1.5% and 1.8%, despite the general trend of rates being in the 1% range [2]. Impact on Banks' Liability Management - The reduction of high-cost long-term large-denomination CDs is a direct method for banks to optimize their liability structures and stabilize net interest margins, which are currently at historical lows [1][3]. - Data shows that most banks in the A-share market have experienced a decline in net interest margins, with state-owned banks seeing a decrease of around 15 basis points [3]. Adjustments in Deposit Structures - Some banks are also eliminating 3-year large-denomination CDs, leaving only shorter-term products available [3]. - A specific bank has announced the cancellation of its 5-year fixed deposit products and has lowered interest rates for other term deposits, indicating a broader trend among regional banks to adjust their deposit offerings [3][4]. Shift in Investment Preferences - Since the establishment of a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism in April 2022, major banks have reduced deposit rates multiple times, prompting depositors to consider diversifying their investments into lower-risk assets such as government bonds and wealth management products [5]. - A recent survey indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with a decrease in the percentage of residents preferring to save more and an increase in those looking to invest more [5]. Growth in Wealth Management Products - The scale of the banking wealth management market has seen significant growth, with a reported increase of 9.42% year-on-year, reaching a total of 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025 [5]. - Projections for 2026 suggest that the wealth management scale could grow by at least 10%, potentially reaching around 38 trillion yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The major state-owned banks in China have collectively removed five-year large-denomination time deposits, indicating a trend of declining long-term deposit products in the banking industry [1][2][4] Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - The six major state-owned banks have eliminated five-year large-denomination time deposits, with only three-year products remaining, which have seen interest rates drop to between 1.5% and 1.75% [1] - The first bank to announce the cancellation of five-year time deposits was Tongyu County Mengyin Village Bank, which will stop offering this product starting November 5, 2025 [1] - Other banks, including at least seven private banks, have also begun to remove five-year time deposits, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - The interest rates for various deposit products have been adjusted downwards, with one-year and two-year rates reduced by 5 basis points to 1.45% and 1.55%, respectively, and the three-year rate decreased by 10 basis points to 1.85% [3] - The adjustments are a response to the pressure on net interest margins faced by banks, as the yield on assets (like loan rates) is declining while the cost of liabilities (like deposit rates) remains rigid [2][4] Group 3: Industry Context and Implications - The banking industry is experiencing a "two-sided squeeze" where declining loan rates and high competition for deposits are pressuring net interest margins, leading to the reduction of long-term high-interest deposit products [4] - A survey indicated that 62.3% of urban depositors prefer to save more, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, suggesting a shift in savings behavior due to lower interest rates [4] - Analysts predict that while long-term deposits will not completely disappear, they will exhibit differentiated supply characteristics, with state-owned banks likely retaining five-year deposits as service tools but at potentially lower rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the mixed performance of various sectors and the impact of external factors such as Nvidia's earnings report. It emphasizes the ongoing volatility and the potential for investment opportunities, particularly in bank stocks and storage leaders, while also noting the challenges faced by the broader market. Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40%, Shenzhen Component down 0.76%, and ChiNext down 1.12% on November 20. The total trading volume was 17,227.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.48 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [12]. - The banking sector showed resilience, with major banks like China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reaching historical highs, each exceeding a market capitalization of 20 billion yuan [12]. Sector Analysis - The storage sector saw significant gains, with six major storage leaders experiencing a surge in total market capitalization approaching 7 trillion yuan, influenced by Nvidia's Q3 performance exceeding expectations [3]. - The real estate sector is expected to receive a boost from potential new stimulus policies, including mortgage subsidies for first-time homebuyers, which could enhance market sentiment [6]. Investment Trends - The article notes a shift in investment behavior, with high-net-worth individuals driving new A-share account openings, contrasting with lower participation from ordinary residents. The number of new A-share accounts rose from 1.65 million to 2.94 million between June and September, indicating a potential focus on wealthier investors [4]. - The concept of "deposit migration" is gaining traction, as investors move funds from low-yield savings accounts to higher-yield stock investments, which could enhance market liquidity and consumer confidence through the "wealth effect" [4]. Technical Indicators - The market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4,000-point mark, with concerns about a potential peak in the bull market. Various indicators, including equity risk premium and trading volume, suggest a short-term correction may be imminent, although no definitive signals of a market top have emerged [10][11]. - The article highlights that while some technical indicators show signs of overbought conditions, the overall valuation metrics remain within reasonable ranges, suggesting that the bull market may continue with support from retail deposits and public funds [11].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% to 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%. The STAR Market Index fell by 1.99% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market showed a weak risk appetite, with over 4100 stocks declining, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] Investment Strategy - The current market pullback does not signify the end of a bull market, as excess liquidity continues to increase and the narrative of deposit migration persists. Long-term optimism remains for sectors like technology, anti-involution, and exports [1] - Two key investment strategies are proposed: balancing between mainline and defensive stocks, and waiting for an uplift in income expectations [1] Sector Focus - The transition from old to new economic drivers remains unchanged, with thriving sectors concentrated in technology (primarily AI), anti-involution (solar energy, lithium batteries), and manufacturing exports. Suggested ETFs include communication ETF (515880), chip ETF (512760), solar 50 ETF (159864), and coal ETF (515220) [2] - Given the significant prior gains in the technology sector, volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to consider dividend stocks such as dividend Hong Kong stocks (159331), dividend state-owned enterprises (510720), and cash flow stocks (159399) [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market continues to show a consolidation trend, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) slightly down by 0.04% and the thirty-year government bond futures down by 0.41% [3] - The central bank's "moderate easing" stance has led to uncertainty in interest rates, with a shift towards more precise and efficient regulation to avoid excessive liquidity [3] - The outlook for the bond market remains one of fluctuation, with the central bank restarting government bond trading to set a yield ceiling. However, external risks have eased, limiting the potential for significant declines in ten-year bond yields [3]