文 / 苏商银行特约研究员 薛洪言 2 0 25年5月20日，新一轮降息政策落地，1年期和5年期LPR均下调10个 BP。大行存款利率同步调降，2年期及以下定期存款利率下调15个BP，3 年 和 5 年 期 存 款 利 率 下 调 25个 BP 。 纵观 本 次降 息， 存 款降 息 幅 度 大 于 贷 款，且存款呈现出"期限越长，调降幅度越大"的特点。非对称降息旨在减 弱存款定期化、长期化趋势，助力银行控制负债成本、维持息差水平。 值 得 注 意 的 是 ， 长 期 限 存款 利 率 的 深度 调整 叠 加仍 将 持 续 降 息 的 市 场 预 期 ， 或 将 打 破 居 民 资 产 配置 的 稳 态 平衡 ，驱 动 储蓄 资 金 加 速 迁 徙 。 截 至 2 0 25年4月末，我国储蓄存款余额高达1 5 9万亿元，迁移空间巨大。存款 搬家驱动财富管理市场扩容，叠加养老金、险资等长期资金入市的制度红 利，资本市场有望获得持续活水注入，结构性长牛行情更具想象空间。 降息驱动存款搬家：资金"脱媒"趋势加速 从常识来看，当1年期存款利率低于1%时，存款的"保值增值"属性将相对弱化，居民对投资收益的敏感 度显著提 ...

Group 1 - The recent reduction in deposit rates by state-owned and joint-stock banks has prompted smaller banks, including city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, to follow suit, leading to many deposit rates entering the "1" range [1][2] - The adjustment in deposit rates has resulted in a noticeable "deposit migration" effect, with clients moving large sums from traditional deposits to wealth management products and insurance [1][5] - The latest data indicates that the average interest rates for various deposit products have reached historical lows, with some banks offering rates as low as 0.05% for demand deposits and 1.30% for three-year fixed deposits, reflecting a decrease of 25 basis points [2][3] Group 2 - The decline in deposit rates is expected to encourage consumers to allocate funds towards consumption and investment, thereby enhancing economic vitality and optimizing asset allocation [4] - The trend of deposit migration is exacerbated by the low attractiveness of traditional savings, with many clients opting for bank wealth management products and insurance instead [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the reduction in deposit rates will pressure banks' liability management, leading to increased reliance on interbank liabilities and higher issuance rates for interbank certificates of deposit [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in high-yield financial products offered by banks in response to declining deposit rates, leading to a shift of funds from traditional savings to wealth management products. However, the sustainability of these high yields is questioned as the market adjusts to lower interest rates [1][10]. Group 1: High-Yield Product Emergence - Many banks' wealth management subsidiaries are launching short-term high-yield products to attract customers, with some products offering annualized returns exceeding 6% [3][4]. - As of May 24, 34 wealth management products have performance benchmarks above 6%, indicating a significant increase in high-yield offerings [3]. - The issuance of new products has surged, with 506 new wealth management products launched in the week of May 5-11, 2025, marking a 104-product increase from the previous week [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Behavior - Investors are adopting new strategies to secure high-yield products, with tactics such as timing purchases and selecting newly launched products [6][7]. - A notable trend is the emergence of "gold diggers" who monitor and quickly purchase high-yield products as soon as they become available, often using mobile apps [5][6]. - Investors are categorizing products based on their performance, with terms like "exploding gold coins" for high yields and "hanging eggs" for products with no returns [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shift of funds from deposits to wealth management products is evident, with a reported decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan in household deposits in April, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.57 trillion yuan [9][10]. - The wealth management market's total scale reached 31.26 trillion yuan as of May 19, 2025, indicating potential for further growth [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current low deposit rates may continue to drive funds into wealth management, but uncertainties remain regarding the impact of interest rate changes and market volatility on future growth [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the migration of funds from deposits to wealth management products is driven by declining deposit rates, but the sustainability of high returns on these products remains uncertain [1][7][8] - Wealth management companies are launching short-term high-yield products to attract customers, with some products offering annualized returns exceeding 6% [2][3] - The issuance of wealth management products is increasing, with a significant rise in the number of new products launched recently [2][6] Group 2 - Investors are employing strategies to "snatch" high-yield products, indicating a competitive environment for acquiring these financial products [4][5] - The shift of deposits to wealth management products is evident, with a notable increase in non-bank deposits and a corresponding rise in the scale of wealth management products [6][7] - There are concerns about the future expansion of wealth management scales due to potential downward pressure on product performance benchmarks and the impact of market volatility [8]

继5月20日国有六大行率先开启第七轮人民币存款挂牌利率下调后，多家股份行也跟进调 整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下 调，整存整取挂牌利率最高降幅为25个基点。 有专家表示，存款挂牌利率再度下调，且本次幅度大于LPR降幅、中长期存款利率降幅更 大，有利于进一步缓解存款长期化趋势，稳定银行负债成本，改善银行盈利能力，提升金融 服务实体经济的可持续性。同时，随着存款利率进一步下行，可能再次推动"存款搬家"。 12家股份行跟进下调存款利率 5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行、宣布对人民 币存款利率进行了调整。与此前相比，六家国有大行银行活期存款利率均下调0.05个百分点 至0.05%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率全线下调，最大降幅25个基点，1年定期利率首次跌破 1%。 近两日，多家股份制银行宣布跟进调整。截至5月22日，招商银行、中信银行、兴业银行等 12家股份行已全部完成存款利率的下调。 与国有大行相似，此次股份行多个期限存款利率均有所调整。其中，人民币活期存款利率统 一下调5个基点至0.05%，中长期限存款下调幅度更大，整存整取挂 ...

中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 继5月20日国有六大行以及招商银行、光大银行宣布下调存款利率后，《中国经营报》记者统计发现，5 月21日又有七家股份行再次跟进下调存款利率，其中长期存款利率下调幅度大于短期。 记者注意到，截至目前，九家股份制银行普遍对六个月、一年期、二年期定存挂牌利率下调15个基点， 三年期、五年期定存挂牌利率普遍下调25个基点。其中长期存款利率下调幅度更大。 同时，除招商银行与五大行保持一致外，其余8家股份制银行整存整取一年期、三年期、五年期挂牌利 率分别降至1.15%、1.3%、1.35%。 或推动"存款搬家" 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示："截至2025年4月末，活期存款占比34.5%，此次六大行下调存款利 率并带动其他商业银行跟进调整后，或将带动整体存款利率下调0.11—0.13个百分点左右，基本能够覆 盖本次LPR报价下调带动各类贷款利率下行对银行资产端收益的影响，稳定银行净息差。" 从影响看，王青表示，最新数据显示，2025年一季度商业银行净息差为1.43%，较上季度下行0.09个百 分点，再创历史新低，且已明显低于1.8%的警戒水平。本次LPR报价下调带动银行存款利率同步下调， 在 ...

新一轮降息潮已经开启，对理财市场影响几何？ 2025.05. 21 本文字数：2765，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈君君 继国有大行及招商银行率先降息后，5月21日，又有8家股份制银行宣布下调存款利率，其中3年期和 5年期定期存款利率下调25个基点，活期存款利率接近零利率水平。与此同时，多家银行同步降低了 大额存单产品的利率，全面进入"1时代"。 业内人士分析认为，这将进一步引发"存款搬家"现象，理财市场的存款替代效应也将显著增强，尤其 是短期限理财产品（如现金管理类和纯债类产品）将成为主要的资金承接工具。然而，随着存款利率 的下调，银行理财产品等固定收益类产品的收益率也将面临下行压力。 投资者急寻"存款替代" 5月20日，国有六大行及招商银行同步下调了存款利率。其中，活期存款利率降至0.05%，距离零利 率仅一步之遥。与活期存款利率下调相对应，1年期整存整取利率已降至0.95%，全面迈入"1时代"。 5月21日，中信银行、兴业银行、浦发银行、光大银行、华夏银行、民生银行、广发银行、平安银行 8家股份制银行"接力"降息，普遍对6个月、1年期、2年期定存挂牌利率下调15个基点，3年期、5年 期定 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of recent interest rate cuts on deposit rates, leading to a shift in investment behavior towards wealth management products as a substitute for traditional deposits [1][2][5] - Major state-owned banks and several joint-stock banks have lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 0.95% and many banks entering the "1 era" with rates below 1% [2][3] - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to intensify, as lower deposit rates make wealth management products more attractive, particularly short-term products like cash management and pure bond products [1][5][6] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly seeking alternatives to traditional deposits, with many considering wealth management products that offer better returns and liquidity [3][4] - The decline in deposit rates is anticipated to increase the difficulty for banks in attracting deposits, while simultaneously directing more funds towards low-risk asset management products [4][6] - The wealth management market has shown growth, with a notable increase in scale, surpassing 31 trillion yuan by mid-May, driven by the comparative advantage of these products over traditional deposits [6][8] Group 3 - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is likely to exert downward pressure on the yields of fixed-income products, including bank wealth management products [8][9] - Cash management products are also experiencing declining yields, with average annualized returns falling to around 1.51% as of the end of April, reflecting the broader trend in the market [9] - The overall yield of wealth management products is expected to continue declining in the long term, influenced by the performance of underlying assets such as bonds [8][9]

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 差 基 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3898.17 | ↑0.54 | | 2016.4 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3865.4 | ↑0.63 | -32.77 | 608.4 | 52572 | ↑3690 | 150105 | ↑666 | | IF2507 | 3825.6 | ↑0.66 | -72.57 | 24.9 | 2176 | ↓308 | 2719 | ↑323 | | IF2509 | 3795 | ↑0.62 | -103.17 | 151.1 | 13301 | ↓855 | 69475 | ↑761 | | IF2 ...