Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, reflecting a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [5] - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at 27.01 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while net profit is expected to be 1.286 billion HKD, down 41.9% [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2028, with expected net profits of 1.32 billion HKD, 1.591 billion HKD, and 1.85 billion HKD respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4 for FY2026, 11.1 for FY2027, and 9.5 for FY2028 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2025 revenue is expected to be 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - FY2025 net profit is projected at 1,286 million HKD, representing a 41.9% decrease compared to FY2024 [8] - Gross margin for FY2025 is anticipated to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to be 5.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.2% for FY2025 [8]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue increased by 9.12% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.45 million, a year-on-year loss expansion of 64.47% due to high R&D and equipment depreciation costs [1] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 6.77%, but the net profit loss expanded to 38.46 million, attributed to ongoing R&D and sampling costs, as well as increased equipment depreciation [2] - The company's financial expenses in 2024 rose by 1080.22% to 6.43 million, primarily due to new bank loans and discounts [5] Asset Management - Asset impairment losses in 2024 increased by 80.99%, mainly due to inventory write-downs and fixed asset impairments [3] - The inventory turnover rate in Q1 2025 decreased by 62.94%, prompting plans for improved inventory management [4] Cash Flow and Debt Management - In Q1 2025, net cash flow from operating activities increased by 230.25%, while cash reserves decreased by 27.13% due to increased investment expenditures [10] - The company's interest-bearing debt grew by 25.80%, with short-term loans amounting to 155 million, but the overall scale remains manageable [13] Market Strategy and Innovation - The company faces challenges from U.S.-China decoupling and increased competition, but plans to stabilize core resources and explore new markets [6][7] - The company aims to enhance R&D investment and improve product quality to increase gross margins, which were -14.13% in Q1 2025 [8][9] - The company has achieved significant results in market expansion, becoming a qualified supplier for major clients [7] Accounts Receivable Management - Accounts receivable increased significantly in 2024, with credit impairment losses rising by 230.18%, but the company maintains a strategy to control customer credit risk [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7][35] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][35] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 30% year-over-year to $6.33 [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue also increasing by 24% [12][35] - UGG brand revenue increased by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue rising by 15% [23][35] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue for HOKA increased by 23%, while UGG's DTC revenue rose by 11% [12][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [12] - U.S. revenue for HOKA rose by 17%, totaling just under $1.5 billion [12] - UGG's international revenue grew by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and innovation [10][11] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to expand its market share through innovation and increased brand awareness [19][22] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and its potential impact on consumer spending [29][31] - The company expects to face challenges in fiscal year 2026 due to tariff impacts, estimating an increase of up to $150 million in cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of both HOKA and UGG brands [29][41] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow generation [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC - Management noted that the slowdown was due to several unique factors affecting the U.S. market, but international DTC performance remained strong [54][56] Question: Potential for mid-teens growth for HOKA - Management expressed confidence in HOKA's growth potential, emphasizing that the brand's international growth would likely outpace U.S. growth [60][66] Question: Transition to new models and tariff costs - Management confirmed that the $150 million tariff cost is a gross number, with potential mitigations through pricing strategies [76][78]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In FY2025Q1, Puma achieved revenue of €2.08 billion, which is in line with expectations (Bloomberg consensus of €2.04 billion), with a year-on-year growth of +0.1% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.0%, primarily impacted by high inventory valuations and exchange rate fluctuations [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Region**: The Greater China region continues to be weak, while the EMEA region shows better performance. EMEA revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year to €0.89 billion, while the Greater China and US markets saw double-digit declines, leading to a year-on-year revenue drop of -4.7% and -2.7% in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions, respectively, to €0.43 billion and €0.75 billion [5] - **By Channel**: E-commerce channels are growing faster, while wholesale channels are slightly dragging down performance. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 12.0% year-on-year to €0.55 billion, benefiting from strong e-commerce growth (+17.3%) and retail store sales growth (+8.9%). However, wholesale revenue declined by 3.6% year-on-year to €1.53 billion due to pressures in the Greater China and US markets [5] - **By Product**: Product performance is mixed, with footwear showing better growth. Revenue for footwear, apparel, and equipment grew by 2.4%, -1.5%, and -5.7% respectively, reaching €1.19 billion, €0.59 billion, and €0.30 billion. Footwear growth is driven by running, basketball, and sports fashion categories, while the golf category negatively impacted equipment sales [5] Inventory Situation - As of FY2025Q1, Puma's inventory stood at €2.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, primarily due to accelerated deliveries of products to the US market amid tariff impacts [8] Tariff Impact - The company has a low procurement ratio from China and is actively responding to tariff impacts. The US market accounts for approximately 20% of revenue, with about 10% of procurement from China, which is decreasing. The company has shifted procurement for the 2025 autumn/winter products from China to other markets to mitigate potential tariff impacts [8] Performance Guidance - Puma maintains its full-year guidance, expecting low to mid-single-digit sales growth year-on-year at constant exchange rates for FY2025 (Bloomberg consensus expects €8.93 billion, +1.3% year-on-year). EBIT is projected to be between €520 million and €600 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.4% to 3.5% [8]

Industry Overview - The apparel industry is facing significant challenges, including limited market growth and intense competition among numerous brands, both international and domestic [4] - The overall retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which is 11.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate for the entire year of 2023 [2][4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate for clothing items was only 7.0%, indicating underperformance compared to the overall online retail growth [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 52 listed footwear and apparel companies achieved total revenue of 134.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.19 billion, up 22.85% [6] - Only 13 companies achieved both revenue and profit growth, while 39 companies failed to outperform the market [6] - The average net profit margin for the industry was 5.99%, with a gross profit margin of 51.42%, indicating high efficiency in converting costs to gross profit but limited overall profitability [11] Company Performance - Anta Sports led the industry with revenue of 33.735 billion, a growth rate of 13.80%, followed by Li Ning and Hailan Home [27] - Among the listed companies, only a few achieved high profit margins, with only 10 companies having a net profit margin exceeding 15% [11] - The performance of companies varied significantly, with some like Dafni International showing a profit margin exceeding 30%, while others like La Chapelle faced losses exceeding 20% [11] Inventory and Store Management - The inventory pressure remains high, with total inventory for 52 footwear and apparel companies reaching 53.655 billion, averaging 1.032 billion per company, which exceeds the revenue of 24 companies [13] - The number of physical stores in the industry has seen minimal growth, with at least 3,004 stores closing in the first half of the year, averaging 16 closures per day [19] - Companies like Semir and Hailan Home have shown positive store growth, while others like Taiping Bird and Aokang International have seen significant store reductions [19] Online Sales and Market Trends - Online channels are becoming increasingly important, with some companies reporting over 30% of their sales coming from online platforms [24] - The apparel industry is experiencing a shift towards online sales, with platforms like Douyin contributing significantly to growth [24] - The sportswear segment is performing well, driven by major sporting events and a growing number of people participating in sports, with total revenue for sportswear companies reaching 64.231 billion, accounting for 47.60% of total revenue [25] Challenges in Specific Segments - The women's apparel market is highly competitive, with many brands struggling due to high inventory levels and a significant return rate of 80% in e-commerce [30][34] - The men's apparel segment is also facing challenges, with many companies reporting declines in revenue and profit [35] - The children's apparel market is underperforming due to a decrease in the birth rate and increased competition from adult brands entering the children's segment [40]

2025 年 5 月 16 日 银河能化-20250516 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-16） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 61.62 跌 1.53 美元/桶，环比-2.42%；Brent2507 合约 64.53 跌 1.56 美元/桶，环比-2.36%。SC 主力合约 2507 跌 6.6 至 471.7 元/桶，夜盘跌 10.1 至 461.6 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.50 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国非常接近与伊朗达成核协议；德黑兰也"在某种程度上"同 意了协议条款。然而，一位伊朗消息人士称，与美国的谈判仍然存在需要弥合的差距。伊 朗和美国谈判代表为解决德黑兰核计划争端而举行的会谈周日在阿曼结束，官员表示，由 于德黑兰公然坚持继续进行铀浓缩活动，预计还将进一步谈判。 俄罗斯总统普京拒绝周四在土耳其与泽连斯基面对面会谈，而是派出一个二级官员组成的 代表团参加计划中的和平谈判，而泽连斯基表示，基辅将派出由国防部长率领的代表团。 这将是自 2022 年 3 月以来双方首次直接会谈，但美国总统特朗普表示，如果他与普京不 举行会谈，就 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market trend of nickel and stainless steel is mixed. There is still negative feedback in the ferronickel link on the fundamental side, and the support from the new - energy link has loosened. Although the Sino - US trade tariff agreement has eased concerns about the demand digestion of terminal products, its impact on nickel and stainless - steel varieties is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent reaction of the varieties to market sentiment [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. Negative factors include the gradual increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate link, the continuous negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the ferronickel end moving down, and the high inventory of stainless steel with no obvious improvement in demand [4]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1. Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 32.75% and the historical percentile of the current volatility at 66.9% [2]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline. The recommended hedging tool is the Shanghai nickel main contract with a selling hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2. Another option is to sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance. The recommended hedging tools include buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options. The hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan, and the strategy level is 3 [2]. 3.2. Market Data - **Nickel Market Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,630 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 137,729 lots, an increase of 1,166 lots (0.85%); the open interest is 63,702 lots, an increase of 625 lots (0.99%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,344 tons, a decrease of 205 tons (- 0.87%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan (- 7.0%) [6]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Data**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 128,580 lots, a decrease of 14,329 lots (- 10.03%); the open interest is 127,690 lots, a decrease of 4,068 lots (- 3.09%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 158,715 tons, a decrease of 94 tons (- 0.06%); the basis of the main contract is 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan (20.41%) [7]. 3.3. Inventory Data - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 199,146 tons, an increase of 714 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 989.1 tons, an increase of 13.7 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 tons, an increase of 4,223 tons [8].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/0 8 785 7200 7425 9000 7700 845 917 -60 7016 230 81 2749 2025/05/0 9 780 7200 7400 8975 7700 845 917 -81 6976 170 79 3049 2025/05/1 2 780 7200 7390 8950 7700 845 917 -57 7090 120 79 3049 2025/05/1 3 780 7230 7410 9025 7730 845 917 -36 7187 60 79 4989 2025/05/1 4 780 7360 7500 9225 7750 845 917 -36 7339 40 79 4989 日度变化 0 130 90 200 20 0 0 0 152 -20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳， ...

Core Insights - Koss Corporation's shares increased by 14.7% following the earnings report for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.5% growth during the same period [1] - The company reported net sales of $2.8 million, a 5.4% increase from $2.6 million in the same quarter last year, despite incurring a net loss of $0.3 million, slightly wider than the previous year's loss [1][2] Financial Performance - Gross profit rose to $1.1 million from $0.8 million year-over-year, with gross margin improving by over 600 basis points due to lower shipping costs [2][8] - Operating expenses increased to $1.6 million from $1.5 million, leading to a narrowed operating loss of $0.5 million compared to $0.6 million in the prior year [3] - Interest income contributed positively, reducing the pre-tax loss to $0.3 million from $0.4 million [3] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted geographic expansion and new product sales as key growth drivers, particularly in Europe and Asia [4] - Direct-to-consumer sales also supported revenue growth [4] Market Dynamics - Sales to the education sector fell nearly 60% due to a postponed project, impacting overall performance [5] - The decline in domestic distributor sales also weighed on results [5][7] - The rebound in international distributor sales, especially in Europe and Asia, was a significant growth factor [7] Margin Analysis - Margin expansion was attributed to lower inbound freight and transit costs, although some gains were offset by write-offs related to obsolete inventory [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the caustic soda in the alumina industry chain is "Long" [1] - The investment rating for alumina in the alumina industry chain is "Bullish" [3] - The investment rating for aluminum in the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" [4] 2. Core Views - For caustic soda, influenced by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the futures price continues to rise, with good fundamentals. There may be a short - term correction after a significant increase, and a long - term bullish view is maintained, with short - term prices expected to oscillate slightly [1] - For alumina, the industry's supply - demand situation has improved, supporting the price. It is expected that the alumina price will oscillate slightly higher in the short term, and the actual production capacity changes should be monitored [3] - For aluminum, due to the improvement of international trade and domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the aluminum price is supported. After the release of the US April CPI data, the market sentiment may change. The continuous decline of domestic aluminum ingot inventory has raised some concerns, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose during the day, fell after the night - session opening, and closed at 2533 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.85%. The trading volume was 70.64 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 2.046 million lots, an increase of 23,450 lots; the trading volume was 52.676 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.39%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic caustic soda output was 829,500 tons, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic factory inventory was 249,100 tons, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week - The weekly cost per hundred tons was 182.51 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week; the gross profit per hundred tons was 1,189.8 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 950.46 yuan/ton, a 3.48 - yuan or 0.37% increase from the previous statistical day. The domestic liquid caustic soda spot market transaction price continued to rise. The North China market had good transactions, supported by alumina demand orders and recent chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with a good supply - demand situation. Other regions had stable transactions, with low inventory pressure and active sales [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold low - position long orders [1] 3.2 Alumina 3.2.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose in the afternoon, slightly declined at night, and closed at 2832 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The trading volume was 95.49 million lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; the open interest was 3.842 million lots, a decrease of 1735 lots; the trading volume was 53.764 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Last week, the domestic alumina factory inventory was 1.585 million tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 76,000 tons, a 52% increase from the previous week - This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.6374 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly operating utilization rate was 77.2%, a 7.36% decrease - The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3332.86 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week; the industry gross profit was - 436.59 yuan/ton, a 1.19% increase from the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The average price of the spot market was 2905.71 yuan/ton, an 11.68 - yuan or 0.40% increase from the previous trading day. The spot market inventory continued to decline, and the spot transaction price was at a premium to the futures price. The overall supply has not changed recently, and the industry operating rate remained at 78.25%. The spot market transactions increased recently, with prices ranging from 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. Overseas, the alumina market supply was tight, supporting price increases, but the domestic alumina export advantage was limited, and the import - export pattern has not changed in the short term [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [3] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2506 contract continued to rise, jumped and then corrected at night, and closed at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The trading volume was 40.43 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 5.492 million lots, a decrease of 22,204 lots; the trading volume was 39.866 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [4] 3.3.2 Important Information - The weekly bauxite output was 1.124 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous week - The weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 84.07 tons, unchanged from the previous week - This week, the industry production cost was 16,794.64 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease from the previous week. The industry average gross profit was 2876.67 yuan/ton, a 7.33% decrease from the previous week - The factory inventory during the week was 55,200 tons, a 14.95% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 65,200 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week; the LME inventory was 403,500 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 65,000 tons, a 1.65% decrease from the previous week - On May 9th, the LME aluminum price rose, ranging from 2399 - 2440 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2418 US dollars/ton, up 9.5 US dollars/ton or 0.39% [4] 3.3.3 Market Logic - The international trade situation has improved significantly, with the easing of Sino - US tariffs and a positive international macro - situation, boosting commodity prices, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices have risen. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased again. According to the CPCA, the cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars from January to April were 3.324 million units, a 35.7% increase, and new - energy vehicle consumption continues to support the rise of the aluminum price. Domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals support the aluminum price [4] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [4]