Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].

Group 1: Order and Logistics Management - Effective management of invalid orders, including timely closure of expired and canceled orders [2] - Consideration of logistics stability to manage inventory costs, suggesting higher freight rates for reliable logistics companies [2] - Capturing promotional order rhythms and establishing rules for stock preparation ahead of major sales events [2] Group 2: Sales Forecasting - Development of baseline forecasts using a combination of business models and statistical methods [2] - Focus on seasonal trends, promotional activities, and performance of key products to identify growth opportunities [2] - Collaboration with sales and marketing departments to ensure mutual trust and consideration of interests [2] Group 3: Inventory and Order Management - Management of order timeliness and collaboration with sales for compliance with delivery standards [3] - Implementation of tiered discount policies for orders that meet quantity but not quality standards [3] - Accurate inventory management through regular cycle counts and FIFO (First In, First Out) methods [3] Group 4: Product Lifecycle Management - Recommendations for product streamlining based on market trends and sales data [4] - Coordination with marketing and sales for the launch timing and initial distribution volume of new products [4] - Close monitoring of new product launch progress and management of transitions from old to new products [4] Group 5: Procurement and Supply Chain Strategy - Follow-up on abnormal procurement orders and suggestions for batch rationalization [6] - Development of targeted material strategies for different categories of suppliers [6] - Formulation of appropriate stocking strategies based on sales forecasts, procurement cycles, and inventory turnover KPIs [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. Before the interest - rate meeting, the market's profit - taking sentiment led to a decline in copper prices. The copper fundamentals remained resilient with increased downstream orders after the price drop. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2] - Zinc prices moved down in oscillation. Supply was affected by TC changes, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some resistance overseas. Hold short positions and partially take profits on domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [6] - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but macro - policies and Indonesian policies had some impact [7] - Stainless steel's supply was expected to increase slightly, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreased. The fundamentals were weak, and there was some price - supporting motivation from policies [7] - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was affected by various factors, demand improved slightly, and prices were expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9] - Tin prices oscillated widely. Supply was expected to recover marginally, demand was mainly rigid, and short - term supply - demand was weak. Suggest short - term waiting and light - shorting above 275,000 yuan/ton [12] - Industrial silicon production in some regions was expected to adjust, with short - term tight balance and long - term price oscillation at the cycle bottom [15] - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated strongly. Raw - material suppliers were reluctant to sell, and demand was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The market was in an over - capacity stage with some supply disruptions [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the spot price of Shanghai copper, the spread between waste and refined copper, inventory, and import profitability showed various changes. The copper price was affected by market sentiment, fundamentals, and macro policies. Consider mid - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices, inventory, and import profitability changed. Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, and inventory was expected to decline in September. Hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2] Zinc - Zinc prices, inventory, and import profitability were in flux. Supply was affected by TC changes, and demand was seasonally weak domestically and faced some resistance overseas. Hold short positions and partially take profits on domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [6] Nickel - Nickel prices, import profitability, and inventory changed. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but macro - policies and Indonesian policies had some impact [7] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices were stable. Supply was expected to increase slightly, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreased. The fundamentals were weak, and there was some price - supporting motivation from policies [7] Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro factors. Supply was affected by factors such as scrap battery supply and smelting profit, demand improved slightly, and prices were expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,200 yuan next week [9] Tin - Tin prices oscillated widely. Supply was expected to recover marginally, demand was mainly rigid, and short - term supply - demand was weak. Suggest short - term waiting and light - shorting above 275,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in some regions was expected to adjust, with short - term tight balance due to production resumption in Southwest China and Hesheng, and long - term price oscillation at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated strongly. Raw - material suppliers were reluctant to sell, and demand was supported by pre - holiday stocking. The market was in an over - capacity stage with some supply disruptions [17]

Core Insights - Semir Apparel is experiencing a "revenue growth without profit increase" scenario, with a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit, indicating operational challenges [1][2] - The company's heavy reliance on children's clothing as a primary revenue source poses sustainability risks, especially as the main leisurewear brand faces downward pressure [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, Semir Apparel achieved a revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit fell to 325 million yuan, a decline of 41.17% [1][2] - The increase in sales expenses, driven by efforts to expand direct sales channels and enhance online marketing, has significantly eroded profit margins [2] Inventory Management and Business Structure - The company faces challenges in inventory management, with a slowdown in inventory turnover and increased inventory levels indicating a mismatch between sales speed and procurement [3] - The dependency on the children's clothing segment has risen, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue, while the leisurewear segment's share has decreased [3] - High online return rates, approaching 50%, are impacting user experience and operational efficiency [3] Strategic Responses - Semir Apparel is seeking breakthroughs through channel optimization and refined operations, with plans to increase investment in direct sales channels and enhance online-offline integration [3] - The company aims to strengthen cost control in the second half of the year while balancing short-term performance with long-term strategic investments [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows mixed trends with production increasing, factory - warehouse inventory rising in some areas and social - warehouse inventory decreasing in others [13] - The asphalt price follows the oil price in a range - bound pattern, and regional spot price differences fluctuate downward [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,373 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.82%, and the night - session closing price was 3,399 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. The trading volume was 182,087 lots with an increase of 14,686 lots, and the open interest was 231,822 lots with a decrease of 4,519 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton with a 0.95% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,347 yuan/ton with an 0.81% increase. The trading volume was 55,821 lots with an increase of 16,504 lots, and the open interest was 92,377 lots with an increase of 7,166 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 58,120 lots with a decrease of 1,260 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 137 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase from the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 53 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase. The Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,510 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease. As of September 22, the refinery operating rate was 47.22%, up 4.63% from September 18, and the refinery inventory rate was 26.74%, up 0.50% from September 18 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend (the range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [8] 3. Market Information - **Production**: From September 16 - 22, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 687,000 tons, a 10.1% increase from the previous week and a 41.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 22.837 million tons, a 12.3% increase year - on - year [13] - **Factory - Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 698,000 tons, a 2.8% increase from September 18. The factory warehouses in Shandong had obvious inventory accumulation due to increased supply and affected by rainfall and weak terminal demand [13] - **Social - Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.57 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from September 18. The social warehouses in the Northeast and Southwest regions had obvious destocking. In the Northeast, it was due to the shortened terminal construction period and downstream rush - work demand, and in the Southwest, it was due to the sales of low - price goods [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the global sportswear industry, with a focus on specialized and functional brands showing resilience while general sports brands face sales pressure [3][4][11]. Core Insights - The performance of international sports brands such as Lululemon and Deckers remains strong, while Nike's revenue decline is better than expected. For the latest fiscal quarter, revenues for Deckers, Lululemon, Adidas, Nike, VF, and Puma grew by +17%, +7%, +2%, -12%, -8%, and -8% respectively, with net profits showing a similar trend [3][11]. - The report highlights that Nike's inventory has reached a turning point, with expectations of a narrowing revenue decline in the upcoming fiscal quarter [4][16]. - Domestic sports brands in China, including Anta and Li Ning, have shown resilience with revenue growth of +14% and +3% respectively in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [12][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - Specialized and functional international sports brands demonstrate resilience, while general sports brands face sales challenges. The latest fiscal quarter saw varied performance across brands, with Nike's revenue decline being less severe than anticipated [3][11]. 2. Nike - Nike's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, but better than the company's expectations of a mid-double-digit decline. The net profit dropped by 85.9% to $210 million [19][21]. - The company anticipates a further narrowing of revenue decline in FY26Q1, projecting a mid-single-digit percentage drop [19][21]. 3. Adidas - Adidas maintained its full-year revenue guidance, expecting high single-digit growth for FY25 despite ongoing tariff disruptions [11][19]. 4. Lululemon - Lululemon's revenue growth was +7%, but it fell short of expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in its guidance for FY25 [11][19]. 5. Puma - Puma's revenue declined by 8.3%, with significant downward adjustments to its guidance due to discounting and tariff impacts [11][19]. 6. VF Corporation - VF Corporation's performance exceeded expectations, with an anticipated improvement in revenue decline for the next fiscal quarter [11][19]. 7. Deckers - Deckers reported a revenue increase of 16.9%, driven by strong performance from its UGG and HOKA brands, and provided optimistic revenue guidance for the next quarter [11][19]. 8. Investment Analysis - The report suggests investment opportunities in the sports industry chain, particularly in outdoor brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, as well as global supply chain manufacturers [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. There will be concentrated new capacity additions from August to September. Domestic existing unit operations are still stable, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick - up has reached its peak and declined but remains at a decent level, leading to a decline in port inventory. Downstream operations of pure benzene are recovering from the bottom, but overall operations are still low, and short - term maintenance of styrene has dragged down the rigid demand for pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, downstream pick - up during the peak season remains at a relatively high level, and port inventory is waiting to be further reduced. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still high. There will be short - term maintenance in the first and middle of September, leading to a decline in operations, and port inventory has started to decline. However, operations may recover in the second half of September. Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of ABS and PS have slightly declined, EPS operations are decent, and ABS has a large inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [9][14][20] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [22][25][33][40] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][58] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][74][86] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go for a positive spread arbitrage when the EB2510 - EB2511 spread is low [4] - Cross - Product: Temporarily go for widening the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For coking coal, due to safety accidents, production in some areas is still restricted. Coke prices are weakening, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Although the inventory of coal mines is at a medium - low level, the mainstream coal prices are temporarily stable. With the second round of coke price cuts implemented, downstream demand for coking coal has tightened. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - For coke, the cost of coking has continued to improve, and coke enterprises' profits are good, so their production enthusiasm is high. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement demand for coke has decreased, and the second - round price cuts of coke have been fully implemented. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Affected by safety accidents, production in some areas is restricted. Coke prices are weak, downstream procurement is average, and online auction failure rates are high. However, coal mine inventories are at medium - low levels, and mainstream coal prices are stable; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1130, and the basis is - 57.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [3]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coking coal has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Although the molten iron output is at a high level, the second - round price cuts of coke have been implemented, and downstream demand for coking coal has tightened. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron output and difficult supply increase [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - **Fundamentals**: The prices of some raw coal continue to fall, coking costs are improving, and coke enterprises' profits are good, so production enthusiasm is high. Steel mills' procurement demand for coke has decreased, and the second - round price cuts of coke have been fully implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1580, and the basis is - 108.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coke has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: As the price of coking coal continues to fall, coke supply is increasing, and steel mills' procurement rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [7]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron output and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coke Price**: On September 15, 2025, the prices of some types of coke in ports such as Rizhao Port, Tianjin Port, and Qingdao Port have increased or decreased. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi in Rizhao Port has increased by 40 in some cases and decreased by 50 in others [10]. - **Imported Coking Coal Price**: On September 15, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia in various ports are different, and some varieties have price increases. For example, the price of 1/3 coking coal GJ in Caofeidian Port has increased by 115 [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [31]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Cost - end crude oil prices face resistance in both rising and falling, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate widely. The premium of diluted asphalt, the raw material, remains stable for now, and there is no trend - based guidance from the cost end. In September, the asphalt supply continued to increase, and terminal demand rebounded month - on - month, gradually entering the peak season. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain inventory continued to decline. Among them, refinery inventory stabilized at a low level, and social inventory declined from a high level. Current refinery profits can support high supply, but social inventory is expected to continue active destocking before the end of the year, adding additional supply to the market. The refinery destocking speed will slow down, and inventory pressure will gradually increase before the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the medium - to - long - term cracking spread is expected to weaken. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - Trading strategies include: a unilateral position of oscillation; an arbitrage of a weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; and an option strategy of waiting and seeing [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Cost - end crude oil prices are in a wide - range short - term oscillation. In September, asphalt supply and demand are both strong, with inventory in the industrial chain decreasing. Refinery inventory is at a low - level standstill, and social inventory is falling from a high level. Refinery profits support high supply, but inventory pressure will increase by the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the BU2511 contract is expected to trade between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: oscillation; Arbitrage: weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; Option: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Low - price Resources and Limited Demand Release**: There are many low - price asphalt resources in the market, and demand release is limited. Prices in different regions vary: prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan and Chongqing areas decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton; prices in North China increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton; and prices in other regions remained stable [9][11]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices depend on crude oil trends, fluctuating narrowly with crude oil during the week. Regional bases remained stable. Shandong's basis was 292 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton month - on - month; East China's basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; South China's basis was 132 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton [12]. - **Refinery Operating Rates**: Shandong's operating rate declined, while those in North and Central China increased significantly. By September 11, the operating rate in Northwest China was 63.78%, up 16.95%; in North and Central China, it was 31.59%, up 11.94%; in Shandong, it was 26.65%, down 10.88% [15][16]. - **Refinery Inventory**: The overall refinery inventory level decreased. By September 11, the inventory rate in Northwest China was 26.83%, down 0.97%; in Northeast China, it was 13.60%, down 0.37%; in North China and Shandong, it was 28.90%, down 1.16% [18][19]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory level continued to decline. On September 8, the social inventory rate was 31.39%, down 0.89% from September 4; on September 11, it was 31.31%, down 0.08% from September 8 [21][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: On September 12, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3368 yuan/ton; Brent crude oil closed at $65.48 per barrel at 15:00. The refinery operating rate on September 11 was 38.38%, and the inventory rate was 26.69%. The social inventory rate on September 11 was 31.31% [25]. - **Raw Material Supply**: In August, Venezuela's crude oil exports were 641,044 barrels per day, a 12% month - on - month increase. Exports to China were 123,871 barrels per day, a 78% month - on - month decrease [73][74].