中信建投 周期红利周周谈第 19 期 20250525 摘要 4 月房地产开发投资额同比下降 11.5%，降幅扩大，新开工面积和竣工 面积分别同比下降 22%和 28%，土地市场集中于核心城市，一线城市 宅地出让溢价率为 14%，二线城市为 18%。未来全国投资好转需销售 端向土地端传导。 1-4 月广义基建投资增速为 10.85%，较 1-3 月略降 0.65 个百分点，为 去年下半年以来首次轻微下降。能源相关投资放缓，大基建项目仍处低 位，但政府性基金支出增速高达 17.7%，万德百城土地成交数据同比增 长 22%，显示政府资金逐步到位，对基建有一定支撑。 上周 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.2%，中证 REITs 指数创近年来新高。产 权类和经营权类涨幅均超 2%。华泰苏州恒泰租赁住房 REIT 上市后连续 四天涨幅超过 50%，体现了政策性保租房项目的高估值和热度。 REITs 市场上涨主要因资金配置需求加强及银行降低存款利率，未来市 场利率下降将为 REITs 估值突破提供空间。一季度消费和保障性租赁住 房运营稳定，高速公路车流量和通行费 4 月修复良好，但部分高速公路 项目面临压力。预计上半年高 ...

上一轮棚改，有人直接登上财富列车，所以这次的城市更新，很多人也寄予厚望。 城市更新继续加码，将如何影响楼市？ 从去年开始，新一轮的城市更新拉开了大幕，全国首批选取了15个城市上车，一年之后的今天，城市更新继续加码。 最近官方宣布，今年将再选拔20个城市，加入城市更新的队列。 只不过，相较于以前的"拆迁造富运动"，现在的城市更新已然有了本质的区别，逻辑完全不同。 城市更新，跟过去的"棚改"有何不同？会掀起新一轮的造富运动吗？ 今天我们就来谈谈这些问题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 比如现在很多房子成了危房，水电管道年久失修等等，城市更新就是该加固加固、该改水电改水电，但并不大拆大建。 如果做完这些基础的修缮后，手里的资金还有余量，那么可能也会做一些附加的升值项目，比如兴建一些医疗、养老和育儿设施等等。 有人可能已经发现了，除了规模上的差别之外，城市更新与棚改最大的区别，就是不再把钱发到个人手里，靠拆迁实现一夜暴富的情况不会再出现了。 今年1月份，国常会召开时，曾明确指出： 城市更新关系城市面貌和居住品质的提升，是扩大内需的重要抓手。 中译中，城市更新的根本目标只有一个，就是刺激消费和提振就业，进而扩大内需。 ...

李强强调，今年以来，中国经济在外部挑战增多背景下实现较快增长，展现出强劲的内在驱 动力，同时蕴含着巨大的增量空间。一是需求释放的增量空间。中国正在实施扩大内需战略，开 展提振消费专项行动，超大规模市场潜力将源源不断释放。二是科技赋能的增量空间。中国在科 技创新领域不断突破，人工智能、机器人、生物医药等加速赋能千行百业，将为各国企业带来更 多创新和投资合作机会。三是产业升级的增量空间。中国正在大力推进制造业高端化、智能化、 绿色化转型，有序扩大海外投资，将与各国共同提升产供链水平和效益。中国愿与包括印尼在内 的各国共享增量空间和发展机遇，将坚定不移扩大开放，为外国企业来华投资兴业营造更好环 境。希望中印尼工商界加强对接、积极行动，做大合作蛋糕，加强产业融合，维护自由贸易，促 进两国各领域合作结出更多硕果。 普拉博沃表示，印尼同中国的关系是21世纪最具战略性、最富发展前景的双边关系之一。印 尼方愿同中方加强经贸、产业、绿色经济、科教等领域合作，密切人文交流，更好实现互利共 赢。欢迎中国企业继续在印尼投资兴业，拓宽合作领域。印尼高度赞赏中国在国际事务中发挥的 重要作用，愿同中方共同发扬万隆精神，维护亚洲地区和平稳定 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth in China amidst external uncertainties, but there is a notable decline in fiscal revenue, necessitating more effective allocation of limited fiscal resources [2][8]. Fiscal Policy and Investment - China has implemented active fiscal policies for nearly two decades, but the effectiveness is diminishing, indicating a potential shift towards consumption-driven growth [2][5]. - Government investment and consumption should work in tandem, with a focus on local government spending, which has been growing at a slower rate compared to central government spending [2][5][7]. - Local government spending accounts for 86% of the general public budget, highlighting the need for structural reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [6][7]. Infrastructure and Investment Projects - China's infrastructure development is significant, with the country holding two-thirds of the world's total infrastructure mileage, including 45% of global highways and over 60% of 5G base stations [3]. - Some investment projects, particularly in the central and western regions, are struggling to break even due to low passenger traffic, making them less viable under current fiscal constraints [4]. Consumption and Economic Growth - Recent government reports emphasize the importance of consumption alongside investment, as both are essential for expanding domestic demand [5]. - Investment and consumption should be viewed as interrelated, with government investment potentially stimulating private investment and consumption [5][10]. Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - Current economic conditions suggest that fiscal policy may be more effective than monetary policy in stimulating growth, especially given low inflation and the limited scope for interest rate cuts [9]. - There is potential for fiscal measures to enhance investment and consumption confidence, with suggestions for establishing a blacklist system to prevent inefficient investments [10]. Challenges and Recommendations - The fiscal landscape is characterized by several inequalities, such as local government expenditures exceeding national fiscal revenues, which complicates macroeconomic management [6]. - To stimulate demand, it is recommended to implement policies that can quickly boost consumption, such as infrastructure investments and social welfare programs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

消费是最终需求，是畅通国内大循环的关键环节和重要引擎。习近平总书记指出："扩大内需既关系经 济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成 为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。"4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出："增强消费对经济增长 的拉动作用。"在日新月异的互联网时代，随着消费新场景、新业态、新模式不断出现，青年群体的消 费能力、消费理念、消费模式等对消费市场的影响持续加大。根据第七次全国人口普查数据，我国14— 35周岁青年人口约4亿。持续释放青年群体消费潜力，更好满足青年群体消费需求，能够有效带动消费 市场创新升级，助力内需潜力释放。 重视青年群体消费新需求。随着经济社会发展和人民生活水平提高，青年群体对生活品质、环境氛围等 更加敏感，对新鲜事物接受度普遍较高。他们的消费新需求折射出其对美好生活的追求，为消费市场带 来了新机遇。从国民经济循环看，消费是提质扩容的终点，也是产业转型升级的起点。把握好消费升级 与产业升级的逻辑关系，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的良性循环，是推动高质量发展的重点。把 握青年群体对个性化、品质化、体验化消费的需求，不仅有利于培育服 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang's economy demonstrates resilience amid external pressures, with a stable overall performance reported for April 2023 [2][3]. Foreign Trade - From January to April, Zhejiang's foreign trade reached 1.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with exports at 1.31 trillion yuan (up 9.7%) and imports at 436.25 billion yuan (down 1.6%) [4]. - Zhejiang's foreign trade growth outpaced the national average by 4.2 percentage points for total trade, 2.2 percentage points for exports, and 2.6 percentage points for imports, with market shares increasing compared to the previous year [4]. - Despite challenges in exports to the U.S., Zhejiang has successfully diversified its markets, with notable export growth to ASEAN (180.28 billion yuan, up 9.2%), Latin America (145.06 billion yuan, up 21.5%), and the Middle East (123.01 billion yuan, up 10.4%) [6]. Industrial Production - In April, Zhejiang's industrial output value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, continuing to exceed the national growth rate [7]. - High-tech manufacturing, digital economy core industries, equipment manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries all showed significant growth, with increases of 13.9%, 12.4%, 10.0%, and 9.9% respectively [7]. Domestic Demand - In April, Zhejiang's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 282.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 1.21 trillion yuan for the first four months, growing by 4.7% [10]. - Notable growth was observed in quality-of-life consumption categories, with significant increases in sales of computers and accessories (up 1.9 times), home appliances (up 1.2 times), wearable devices (up 1.2 times), smartphones (up 72.1%), and new energy vehicles (up 11.5%) [10]. Investment - From January to April, fixed asset investment in Zhejiang grew by 2.0%, with project investment increasing by 11.7% [12]. - The province has initiated 204 major projects with a total investment exceeding 580 billion yuan, demonstrating a commitment to stabilizing investment levels [12].

西班牙对外银行亚洲首席经济学家夏乐 胡慧茵摄 南方财经全媒体记者 庞成 广州报道 2025年5月7日，继去年"924"一揽子金融政策之后，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联手推出新一轮一揽子金融政策。系 列举措意在支持稳市场稳预期、提振消费扩大内需，具有全面、及时、落地快的鲜明特点，为市场注入了强劲信心。 5月21日，在2025年粤港澳大湾区论坛举行期间，围绕新一轮一揽子金融政策释放的信号、新形势下粤港澳大湾区加强国际金融 枢纽建设等话题，西班牙对外银行亚洲首席经济学家夏乐接受了南方财经全媒体记者专访。 因此，从提振消费的角度而言，我们应该将短期刺激与长期结构性改革相结合，通过提高社会福利保障，特别是加强退休人员 和低收入者的保障，增加他们的收入来刺激消费；此外，还需采取更多措施，提振服务业消费需求，包括扩大服务业对外开 放、优化服务消费供给等。此外，我还建议，通过进一步增加公众假期天数，更好地落实带薪休假制度等举措，为激发居民消 费潜力创造更好的条件。 除了消费之外，提供内需还包括提振投资。目前来看，房地产投资对整体投资的影响仍然较大，稳住楼市，持续用力推动房地 产市场止跌回稳，仍是扩大投资、提振内需工作 ...

Production - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Sichuan province increased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first four months, indicating strong industrial economic growth [8][10] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported an increase in added value, with notable growth in the automotive manufacturing industry at 22.3% and chemical raw materials and products manufacturing at 20.0% [10][11] - The production of smartwatches surged by 92.7%, lithium-ion batteries by 66.7%, and automobiles by 35.6% [15] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 928.5 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [4][11] - Retail sales in the telecommunications equipment category increased by 79.2%, while home appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 16.4% [4][12] - The growth in retail sales reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating consumer demand [11][12] Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Sichuan rose by 3.2% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 15.9% [11][13] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a significant increase of 28.6%, outpacing the national growth rate [13] - The province has implemented policies to support economic recovery, particularly in the automotive and commercial sectors [13][14]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending intensity and accelerated government bond issuance to support economic development and social stability [1][2] - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year, marking the highest deficit level in recent years [2] - The total public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.4% increase compared to last year, indicating further fiscal expansion [2] Group 2: Support for Domestic Demand - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is a key strategy to support domestic demand and economic growth, with a total of 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds planned for this year [4][6] - The first issuance of long-term special treasury bonds amounted to 1.3 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects and enhancing consumer spending [4][6] - The government aims to boost consumer spending through initiatives like the "old-for-new" consumption program, which has seen significant sales growth in related sectors [5][6] Group 3: Policy Coordination and Effectiveness - The government is implementing a combination of policies, including tax reductions and fiscal incentives, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures and support high-quality development in technology and manufacturing [8] - The central government has allocated 10.34 trillion yuan for transfer payments to local governments, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, to enhance local fiscal capacity [8][9] - There is a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage through better project management and collaboration among various departments [7][10]