1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period is a crucial five - year period that connects the past and the future, with special significance for high - quality development and achieving the 2035 visionary goals [10][11]. - China's economic development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period faces a complex and uncertain internal and external environment. Externally, there are challenges such as global economic slowdown, intensified great - power competition, and supply - chain reconstruction; internally, there are issues like economic growth slowdown, effective demand shortage, and population aging [13]. - To promote high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, five major policy levers should be grasped, including developing new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand, deepening income distribution reform, building a unified national market, and reshaping the incentive - restraint mechanism [67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Historical Position - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is at the historical intersection of the "Two Centenary Goals" and is a foundational stage for the new journey of building a modern socialist country. It has a "connecting - the - past - and - future" role, with tasks of "attacking and implementing" and coincides with many major historical nodes [10][11]. 3.2 Ten Judgments on the Internal and External Environment of China's Economic Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period 3.2.1 External Environment - Global economic uncertainty increases, and the global economy may enter a deep adjustment period of slow growth and declining potential output. The "15th Five - Year Plan" may face a "high - risk, high - volatility" global economic environment with weak growth momentum [14][16]. - A multi - polar trade system is taking shape. China's voice in global economic and trade is expected to further increase, but trade frictions with non - US countries may intensify [20][21]. - Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, evolving towards "normalization" and "complexity." The competition for scientific and technological and industrial discourse power is crucial [31][32]. - Supply - chain reconstruction has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security becoming the main lines of global supply - chain layout [35]. - China has many favorable factors to actively shape the external environment and is not completely passive in the face of external pressure [39][40]. 3.2.2 Internal Environment - The official "4.17%" may be the minimum growth target for the "15th Five - Year Plan," and the expected economic growth range is around 4.5% - 5% [41]. - The transformation of old and new driving forces will accelerate the adjustment of China's industrial structure. The real estate industry may be in the transition from the bottom to a new cycle, and the urgency of new quality productive forces playing a leading role has increased significantly [45][47]. - The population structure may gradually transition to deep aging, and the pressure of "getting old before getting rich" poses more severe challenges to the pension system, medical resources, and elderly care services [53]. - Reform has entered the "deep - water zone," and the implementation of some reform tasks faces significant resistance [57]. - "Debt reduction in development" should be implemented, focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvement to enhance the sustainability of fiscal debt [61][63]. 3.3 Five Levers to Promote China's High - Quality Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period - **Lever 1: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading** "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions prioritize building a modern industrial system. China's industrial structure has problems such as traditional industries in urgent need of transformation and modern manufacturing being "large but not strong." R & D investment is still relatively low, and there are "bottleneck" issues in key areas. "Full - chain" key core technology research in key areas is necessary, and industry "involution" should be avoided [69][70][71]. - **Lever 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption** The importance of "expanding domestic demand" has increased. Insufficient effective demand is the core obstacle to the domestic cycle. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, direct subsidies to residents may be increased, and investment growth is expected to be stable, especially ensuring that the proportion of private investment does not continue to decline [5][8]. - **Lever 3: Deepening Income Distribution Reform and Improving the Social Security System** "People's livelihood" is a key word in the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions. Income distribution reform, household registration system reform, and improvement of the social security system are expected to be key tasks [6]. - **Lever 4: Continuously Promoting Anti - involution and Building a Unified National Market** Building a unified national market is a systematic project. The implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's reform tasks is crucial, especially optimizing the local government assessment and incentive mechanism and solving the problem of China's economic growth path dependence [8]. - **Lever 5: Remodeling the Incentive - Restraint Mechanism and Releasing the Vitality of Micro - entities** The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions emphasize "combining strict management with kindness and balancing incentives and restraints." It is expected to optimize the local assessment and statistical system, promote fiscal and tax system reform, and improve the business environment for enterprises [8].

Core Points - The "China-Northern Ireland Economic and Trade Investment Cooperation Forum" was held in Belfast, emphasizing the importance of economic collaboration between China and Northern Ireland [1][3] - Chinese Ambassador Zheng Zeguang highlighted China's commitment to high-quality development and the potential for mutual growth in various sectors, including trade, investment, education, and culture [3][4] - The forum featured discussions on strategic policies and opportunities for cooperation, with a focus on leveraging Northern Ireland's unique market access to both the UK and EU [5][8] Group 1 - The forum was attended by over 400 representatives from government, parliament, media, and business sectors, indicating strong interest in enhancing economic ties [1] - Zheng Zeguang's speech underscored the historical opportunities presented by China's 14th Five-Year Plan, encouraging Northern Ireland to deepen industrial connections and expand investment [3][4] - Northern Ireland's Minister for the Economy, Ashleigh Riley, acknowledged the significant potential for collaboration in trade, education, and research, citing the region's geographical advantages [4][5] Group 2 - The British Chinese Chamber of Commerce emphasized the long-standing presence of Chinese enterprises in Northern Ireland, particularly in sectors like new energy and infrastructure [5] - A strategic cooperation memorandum was signed between the British Chinese Chamber of Commerce and the Northern Ireland Investment Agency, aiming to facilitate further investments and partnerships [5] - Local officials recognized the cultural similarities between China and Northern Ireland, which could enhance cooperation and mutual understanding [8]

去年，全市消费品以旧换新共争取资金7.3亿元，拉动消费63.7亿元。今年，截至9月底争取资金9.16亿 元，拉动消费近75亿元，有力带动消费持续回升向好。 去年，全市固定资产投资同比增长9.8%，增速位居全省第三位，今年1至9月，省重点建设项目完成投 资78.49亿元，投资完成率112.13%，居全省第二位，我市投资亮点纷呈。 投资和消费组成的内需是经济增长的重要引擎，扩大内需是实现高质量发展的有效途径。今年，我市扎 实推动"投资消费质效年"建设，提高投资效益与大力提振消费两手抓，推动实施一批重大项目，积极组 织各类促消费活动，构建促消费新场景，充分发挥政策拉动作用，持续推动投资和消费提质升级。 在中秋国庆假期里，柏乡县组织商超开展惠民促销活动。施晓晶摄 释放潜能，供需双方同发力 我市举办中国（邢台）首届金秋汽车展，柏乡县首座大型综合购物广场正式开业，推出购物抽奖等惠民 促销活动，巨鹿县举办"丰收节直播"……今年中秋国庆假期，全市共举办促消费活动283场，有力推动 消费潜能释放。 近年来，我市抓住春节、"五一""十一"等节点，推出"甜蜜经济""泉城骑行""假日经济"等促消费系列主 题活动，着力落实消费品以旧换 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the meeting was on China's economic transformation, particularly in expanding domestic demand and promoting green low-carbon transition, which are crucial for both China's high-quality development and international economic cooperation [1][7][15] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" was highlighted as a significant strategic framework for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of modernization and international collaboration [4][11] - Specific measures to increase domestic consumption were discussed, including raising residents' income, improving the efficiency of wealth distribution, and removing consumption restrictions [7][8] Group 2 - The meeting addressed the concerns of many developing countries regarding the evolution of cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in manufacturing and digital sectors [11][12] - The discussion included China's resilience in the face of trade wars, with data indicating that approximately 80% of Chinese exports remain competitive even with a 30% price increase [15][16] - The dialogue also covered the challenges of market segmentation and local protectionism, with commitments to address these issues through systematic reforms [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures are expected to continue a structured market, but be cautious about chasing high prices on the current market surface. The A-share non-financial third-quarter report shows positive revenue and profit growth, but ROE remains in a low oscillation range [1]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to continue an oscillatory pattern under the influence of multiple factors such as capital supply, economic expectations, policy orientation, and market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section Research Views - **Stock Index**: The stock market rebounded after hitting a low, with the three major indexes slightly down. The Sino-US summit is beneficial for the improvement of demand and A-share technology stocks' valuation. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosts market confidence. A-share non-financial third-quarter reports show positive performance, but the science and technology innovation index valuation is at a historical extreme [1]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures closed with gains. The central bank's open market operations increased net investment, and the capital market's weighted average interest rate declined. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue an oscillatory pattern [2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.32%, IF rose 0.03%, IC fell 0.25%, and IM fell 0.28% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.32%, the CSI 300 fell 0.13%, the CSI 500 fell 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.72% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.13% [3]. Market News - During the "Double 11" peak season in 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 13.938 billion pieces, with a daily average of 634 million pieces, 117.8% of the daily business volume. The peak single-day business volume reached 777 million pieces, setting a new record [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][15][16][17][18][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [23][24][25][27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention while ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - Fiscal policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting high-level technological self-reliance, and improving people's livelihoods during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while maintaining an active fiscal stance, balancing development and security, efficiency and equity, and short-term and long-term goals [1][3]. Major Tasks and Strategic Goals - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological self-reliance, optimizing productivity layout, and promoting green transformation [3][4]. - Significant public investment is required for these tasks, which often have strong externalities and long return cycles, necessitating government leadership [3]. Technological Modernization and Support - The plan highlights the importance of fiscal support for technological modernization, focusing on basic research and key core technology breakthroughs [4]. - The strategy includes using various fiscal tools to optimize traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [4][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The emphasis is on shifting fiscal support from supply-side policies to demand-side initiatives, enhancing social welfare for households [4][5]. - The goal is to create a dynamic balance where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa, supporting a new development pattern [5]. Fiscal Sustainability and Taxation - The plan calls for enhancing fiscal sustainability through structural adjustments in tax policies, including improving local tax systems and maintaining reasonable macro tax burdens [7][8]. - Experts suggest optimizing existing tax reduction policies for precision and efficiency, particularly for technology innovation and small enterprises [7]. Local Government Debt Management - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks by implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy and ensuring no new hidden debts are created [8]. - A unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt is to be established, with strict accountability for violations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in enhancing technological innovation, optimizing internal economic structure, and promoting domestic demand while maintaining a confident approach to external openness [2][3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for China's economic development, focusing on higher requirements for technological innovation and the importance of industrialization and scale [2]. - The development environment has changed significantly compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward financial cycle, and a more complex geopolitical landscape [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Enhancements - The emphasis on building a modern industrial system is crucial, with a focus on enhancing supply capabilities and increasing the demand for technological innovation [4][5]. - The plan outlines specific directions for traditional industries, including strengthening their global competitiveness, while also highlighting strategic emerging industries such as new energy and quantum technology [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance independent innovation capabilities across core technologies, industries, talent, and the digital economy [6]. - Key areas for technological breakthroughs include integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing, with a focus on full-chain support for innovation [6][7]. Group 4: Demand-Side Strategies - The plan recognizes the need to boost domestic demand, with a target to increase the consumer spending rate significantly [9][10]. - Strategies to enhance consumption include improving institutional mechanisms, increasing quality supply, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption [10][11][12]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving social welfare and employment to support consumer spending, with a focus on high-quality employment and equitable income distribution [12][13]. - Policies aimed at enhancing social security and reducing the financial burden on households are highlighted as essential for stimulating demand [13][14]. Group 6: External Openness - The "15th Five-Year Plan" promotes a more proactive and autonomous approach to external openness, emphasizing the importance of balancing imports and exports [15][16]. - Financial openness is identified as a key area for enhancing China's global financial standing, with a focus on increasing the internationalization of the RMB [17][18].

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行11月11日发布的《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》指 出，我国国民经济稳中有进，实现全年预期目标具备坚实基础。对于下一阶段货币政策，央行明确将实 施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，并特别强调要强化金融对扩大和提振消费的支 持作用，通过扩大消费领域金融供给、研究支持个人修复信用等政策，挖掘释放消费潜力。 报告分析认为，当前全球经济增长动能依然不足，通胀走势分化，外部环境仍存不确定性。展望国内， 随着提振消费的宏观调控思路不断落地，对物价合理回升有积极影响。基于此，央行提出将强化宏观政 策取向一致性，做好跨周期和逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，持续营造适 宜的货币金融环境。 在金融支持实体经济方面，报告提出将研究健全民营中小企业增信制度，助力其融资发展。针对消费领 域，政策力度显著加大，明确要扩大金融供给，并研究实施支持个人修复信用的政策措施，旨在有效激 发内需潜力。此外，央行还将防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，并进 一步扩大人民币在跨境贸易投资中的使用。 随着我国经济转向高质量发展，应科学看待金融总量指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Relatively Strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A - share technology stocks. The content of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosts market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue. However, one should be cautious about chasing high in the current market. The market may refocus on fundamentals after the release of the third - quarter reports. A - share non - financial third - quarter reports show positive revenue and profit growth, but ROE remains in a low - level oscillation range [1] - In the treasury bond market, the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook in the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity for the central bank to cut interest rates is low, and the "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds disturbs the bond market sentiment. It is expected that the bond market will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.00, down 1.03%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3134.32, down 1.40%; the CSI 300 closed at 4652.17, down 0.91%; the STAR 50 closed at 1387.53, down 1.42%; the CSI 500 closed at 7291.61, down 0.71%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7540.79, down 0.30% [1] - A - share non - financial third - quarter cumulative revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and cumulative net profit attributable to the parent increased by 1.65% year - on - year. ROE (TTM) was 6.5% [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On November 11, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.01%, while the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts remained basically stable [1] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on November 11, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, there was a net investment of 2863 billion yuan [1][2] - DR001 rose 3BP to 1.51%, and DR007 rose 1BP to 1.51% [2] 3.2 Price Changes in the Second Quarter 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3033.0 | 3054.0 | - 21.0 | - 0.69% | | IF | 4626.8 | 4672.0 | - 45.2 | - 0.97% | | IC | 7173.0 | 7235.8 | - 62.8 | - 0.87% | | IM | 7390.4 | 7421.0 | - 30.6 | - 0.41% | [3] 3.2.2 Stock Indexes | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3034.6 | 3053.9 | - 19.2 | - 0.63% | | CSI 300 | 4652.2 | 4695.1 | - 42.9 | - 0.91% | | CSI 500 | 7291.6 | 7343.8 | - 52.2 | - 0.71% | | CSI 1000 | 7540.8 | 7563.3 | - 22.5 | - 0.30% | [3] 3.2.3 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.46 | 102.47 | - 0.006 | - 0.01% | | TF | 105.94 | 105.94 | - 0.005 | 0.00% | | T | 108.48 | 108.49 | - 0.01 | - 0.01% | | TL | 116.30 | 116.28 | 0.02 | 0.02% | [3] 3.3 Market News - The EU Commission is considering forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment from their telecom networks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that this act by the EU violates market principles and fair competition rules [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of their respective monthly basis [6][7][9] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - term treasury bond futures, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [22][23][26][27]

Core Points - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, which has garnered significant international attention for its focus on high-quality development and long-term strategic planning [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and the role of the private economy in driving China's economic growth [2][4] - The plan aims to enhance the quality, sustainability, and inclusiveness of economic growth, shifting focus from mere expansion to quality improvement [3][6] - Strategic emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G mobile communication are identified as new growth points for the economy [2][5] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The plan highlights the necessity of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for economic development, aiming to improve the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [5][6] - There is a strong emphasis on integrating advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and green manufacturing into the industrial system [5][6] - The plan also calls for a balance between boosting consumption and effective investment, promoting a virtuous cycle between supply and demand [6][7] Group 3: Global Engagement - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a signal of China's commitment to open up and engage with the global economy, aiming to create new opportunities for international cooperation [7][8] - China's development strategy is expected to contribute positively to global economic stability and growth, reinforcing its role as a key player in the international arena [8][9] - The plan outlines a vision for a "beautiful China," focusing on green transformation and sustainable development [5][7]