Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the gold and silver sectors, driven by rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a tightening supply-demand balance in precious metals [1][2] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) has seen a significant increase of 3.11%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (9.96%) and Hunan Silver (8.45%) [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which, along with a weakening US dollar, has provided strong support for gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities suggests that the gold and copper sectors may experience a favorable cross-year market starting in December, with a tightening supply-demand landscape and rising inflation expectations [2] - The gold sector's performance is further emphasized by the current low inventory levels in both the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which are at their lowest in nearly a decade [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks account for 68.26% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - **Nickel**: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - **Lithium carbonate**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - **Basic Logic**: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant rally, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,250 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance in gold-related ETFs and stocks [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Performance - The precious metals sector is up across the board, with spot gold continuing its upward trend, having increased by 5.9% in November [1][1] - Gold ETFs, specifically the one tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange, have seen a year-to-date increase of over 160%, reaching a latest scale of 1.299 billion yuan [1][1] - The Southern China Securities Index for gold stocks has recorded a year-to-date increase of 75.93% as of November 28 [1][1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is rising, influenced by declining inflation and a resilient labor market [1][1] - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the successor to Jerome Powell is contributing to increased buying interest in precious metals [1][1] - Analysts believe that the expected decline in nominal and real interest rates due to rate cuts will provide new momentum for gold prices [1][1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - Gold is recommended to be on the sidelines, with short - term strength, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a bias towards strength. The core logic is the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The rising price is mainly driven by the continuous heating up of Fed rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to be long - term bullish, with short - term oscillation, medium - term strength, and intraday strength. The rising price benefits from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index, along with the differentiation of electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price went up, approaching the high in early November. New York gold reached above $4200, and Shanghai gold exceeded the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The continuous heating up of the Fed rate cut expectation led to the weakening of the US dollar index. As of November 30, the market expected the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to be close to 90%, and the US dollar index weakened from the 100 - mark last week [3]. - **Market Performance**: In the short term, the gold price is expected to be strong, but it is weaker than silver, possibly due to the switching of market risk preferences [3]. Copper - **Price Situation**: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in position and went up significantly. On Friday night, the copper price continued to rise. LME copper broke through the $11,000 mark and the previous high, and Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: It benefited from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. In the industry, the electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad were differentiated, with marginal inventory accumulation overseas and marginal inventory reduction in China, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Shanghai copper increased in position and went up, with strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high point at the end of October [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, 2025, the trading of the CME was disrupted. The expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise, and there was progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The silver market was in short supply and trading was active. The silver price soared, driving up the gold price. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks made the gold price remain strong, and the silver price also increased [4][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The CME had a major outage on Friday. The gold price was pulled up by the silver price. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.59% at $4256.4 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price soared. The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0713. COMEX silver futures closed up 6.06% at $57.085 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 5.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 90,873 kilograms, an increase of 450 kilograms, which was bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased, which was bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which was neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 558,882 kilograms, a daily increase of 11,906 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased, which was bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - The report suggests paying attention to the PMI data of China, the US, and Europe, as well as the speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Specific time points include the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 09:05, China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI at 09:45, Switzerland's October real retail sales at 15:30, France's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:50, Germany's November manufacturing PMI final value at 16:55, the eurozone's November manufacturing PMI final value at 17:00, the UK's November manufacturing PMI final value and the UK's October central bank mortgage approvals at 17:30, the US's November S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value at 22:45, the US's November ISM manufacturing index at 23:00, and the speech of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra at 23:30 [4][15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. Recently, the three main factors of the US government shutdown, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the concern about the escalation of Sino - US tariffs have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs had a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price was prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.82% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions decreased by 1.25%, and the net position increased by 5.14%. The SPDR Gold ETF position fluctuated and increased [28][33]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 3.27% on November 28, 2025, compared with the previous day. The short positions increased by 3.62%, and the net position increased by 2.16%. The silver ETF position increased significantly and was still higher than that of the same period in the previous two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [30][36][40].

首先，美联储降息预期和AI发展争议主导市场风险偏好的走向。 美联储12月是否降息的预期反复多变。上周以来，在美联储官员的鸽派言论下，降 息预期再次大幅回升，这主导了上周以来全球股市的反弹，A股也顺利实现了超跌反弹。此外，人工智能行业是否存在泡沫的讨论仍未结束，但谷歌大模 型的明显进展为这个行业又重新注入了强心剂，全球AI 行业的核心资产出现明显修复。总体来看，经过前周的急跌之后，市场主要基本面驱动因素有所 改善，这将有利于市场继续反弹修复。 上周市场超跌反弹，量能有所减少。 沪指周初触及低点后，一路向上逐步收复失地，周四周五连续两天站上5天均线，不过目前仍在60天均线下方。 深圳成指上周反弹力度更大，周三便回补了前周的跳空缺口，周四触及60天均线后略有回落。量能方面，上周两市日均量能约17000亿元左右，较前周有 所下降。上周市场热点主要集中在TMT行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技股领涨。 风险提示 ：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从运行节奏看，沪指快速调整后，尝试向上反弹。 沪指前周出现快速调整，上周一在10月上旬的低点上方获得支撑后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant price increases, with silver and gold reaching historical highs due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in precious metal prices [1][5]. Precious Metals Market - As of December 1, spot silver has reached a historic high of $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 98%. COMEX silver has also surpassed $58 per ounce, while SHFE silver has risen over 6% [1]. - Gold prices are also on the rise, with New York futures gold breaking through $4260 per ounce and spot gold reaching $4228 per ounce [1][2]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has dropped to around $87,312, with a decline of over 4% in the day, while Ethereum has fallen to approximately $2,847, down over 5% [2][3]. - In the last 24 hours, a total of 180,325 individuals have been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $537 million [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market is currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by CME Federal Funds futures [5]. - The focus is shifting to the upcoming release of the US September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector continues to rise, with spot silver reaching a historic high of $57 per ounce, up over 1% on the day and more than 98% year-to-date [1] - COMEX silver has surpassed $58 per ounce, while SHFE silver has increased by over 6%, setting new records [1] - Gold prices are also rising, with NYMEX gold breaking through $4260 per ounce, up 0.12% on the day, and spot gold reaching $4228 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The market is reacting to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [1] - A surge in precious metals prices has been observed alongside a broader market rally, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, as concerns over AI bubbles and economic growth have eased [4] - The CME Fed Fund futures indicate an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [5] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has dropped to around $87,000, down over 4% in the day, while Ethereum has fallen to approximately $2,800, with a decline exceeding 5% [2][3] - In the last 24 hours, over 180,325 traders have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $537 million [3]

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 美白银交割风险再现，银价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡上行，国际金价再度站上4250美元/ 盎司，白银价格在上周五再创历史新高，国际银价因COMEX 白银交割风险上攻至57美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高， 国内白银价格也再创新高，站上13000元/千克。上周四国 内铂、钯期货上市首日波动剧烈，第二个交易日波动收窄。 ⚫ 近期，越来越多的美联储官员发布言论纷纷支持12月降 息。美联储主席选拔进入最后阶段，贝森特称，特朗普预 计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。 ...

炼厂减产增多 铅价企稳修整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续偏弱走势。宏观面看，美联储 位官员态度转鸽，12 月降息预期回升，美元回落至 100 关口下方，风险资产压力减弱。 要点 基本面看，LME 交仓压力放缓，但库存保持在 26.4 万 吨附近的高位，基金净多头持仓减半回落，伦铅延续 弱势拖累沪铅走势。内外铅精矿加工费维持弱势报价， 实际成交较寡淡。再生铅炼厂利润亏损扩大，对原料 压价采购，废旧电瓶报价小幅下调，成交情况一般。 冶炼端炼厂减停产较多，九华新材 11 ...