2025年年底，多家国际机构上调了对中国经济的增长预期。中国经济向好离不开适宜的货币金融环境。 适度宽松的货币政策以及多种货币政策工具的合理使用，为金融市场稳定运行创造了条件。 多地也密集出台科技金融相关政策。例如，深圳明确积极发挥债券市场"科技板"作用，引导金融机构加 大对科创债券的投资力度、完善担保增信和风险分担；陕西要求畅通私募基金准入退出渠道，引导资金 投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技…… 展望2026年，中国明确经济工作要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 不少专家认为，降准降息仍是2026年货币政策工具箱中的重要选项，促进经济稳定增长、推动物价合理 回升仍是政策发力点。汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶预测，2026年，中国或仍有继 续降息20个基点的空间，并可能降准50个基点。 "货币政策通过降低融资成本、改善信用条件、提升银行投放意愿，将进一步放大财政支持扩大内需的 政策效果，使金融资源能够更直接、更有效地抵达实体经济。"工银国际首席经济学家程实说。 聚焦实体经济重点领域的结构性货币政策工具也是市场关注点。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， 2026年结构性货币政策工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around the rising costs of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, which has escalated from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, highlighting a broader power struggle over U.S. economic policy and monetary independence [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Costs and Economic Policy - Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, claiming they are excessive, while he himself has increased the budget for a new White House banquet hall from $200 million to $400 million [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve attributes the cost overruns to unforeseen circumstances such as asbestos contamination and higher-than-expected groundwater levels [3]. - Trump believes that high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve hinder economic growth and increase corporate financing costs, while Powell maintains that high rates are necessary to address inflation and employment [3][5]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Challenges - Trump faces significant legal hurdles in attempting to dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being removed without just cause, which includes gross negligence [5]. - The Supreme Court has historically upheld the independence of the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for the president to remove the chairman based solely on policy disagreements [5]. - Trump's previous attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve include the dismissal of a board member, which was later overturned by a federal appeals court [5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Leadership - The list of potential candidates to succeed Powell includes Kevin Hassett, who supports interest rate cuts, and Kevin Warsh, who is seen as more hawkish regarding inflation control [6]. - Other candidates mentioned are current Federal Reserve board members and executives from major financial institutions [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical precedents show that presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [9]. - Current economic conditions, including rising tariffs and their impact on prices, complicate the situation, with predictions of short-term price increases due to Trump's trade policies [9]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining trust in the U.S. dollar, and any successful intervention in monetary policy could lead to a loss of confidence among investors and accelerate de-dollarization globally [9].

(年终特稿)中国经济这一年：货币政策发力见成效 中新社北京12月30日电 (陶思阅)2025年年底，多家国际机构上调了对中国经济的增长预期。中国经济向 好离不开适宜的货币金融环境。适度宽松的货币政策以及多种货币政策工具的合理使用，为金融市场稳 定运行创造了条件。 中国央行利用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现等措施，为金融总量合理增长注入动力。 5月，中国央行宣布降准降息，政策利率下调0.1个百分点；10月，二级市场国债买卖操作重启，当月净 投放200亿元(人民币，下同)，11月净投放500亿元。一系列举措巩固了流动性充裕的格局，实体经济综 合融资成本进一步下降。 数据印证了政策效果。11月，企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率比上年同期低约30个基点，社会融 资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为267.42万亿 元，同比增长6.3%。 多地也密集出台科技金融相关政策。例如，深圳明确积极发挥债券市场"科技板"作用，引导金融机构加 大对科创债券的投资力度、完善担保增信和风险分担；陕西要求畅通私募基金准入退出渠道，引导资金 投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技…… ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for metals experienced significant declines, particularly in precious metals like silver and gold, with major contracts hitting their daily limit down, indicating a lack of substantial support for the bullish fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, the metal sector opened lower, with notable declines in Shanghai silver and gold, and platinum and palladium futures hitting their daily limit down [1]. - The main contracts for Shanghai gold and silver reported declines of over 3% and 5% respectively, while platinum and palladium futures saw a drop of 13% [3]. - Other metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin also experienced varying degrees of decline, with tin futures dropping over 5% [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that recent volatility in the metal sector, particularly in precious metals, is attributed to a lack of supportive fundamentals and potential profit-taking by investors [1][4]. - Despite expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks supporting precious metals, the rapid price increases have led to accumulated risks in related contracts [4]. - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market has been positive due to tight fundamentals for silver and platinum, but there is a need for caution as profit-taking may lead to short-term adjustments in prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a cautious approach in response to changing economic conditions and U.S. trade policies, with only a minimal interest rate cut of 10 basis points this year, the smallest since 2021, contrasting with higher expectations from financial institutions for a more significant reduction [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1]. - Analysts attribute the stability of the LPR to strong export performance and rapid development in new productive sectors, which have supported economic resilience against external pressures, allowing for a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][3]. - The PBOC has shifted focus from broad monetary easing to more unconventional measures, including targeted liquidity injections and support for the stock market, while maintaining a stable policy rate [4][6]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Strategy - Economists predict that the PBOC may implement a cumulative interest rate cut of 20 basis points and a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 2026, although some institutions believe key policy rates may remain unchanged throughout that year [6][8]. - The central bank's reluctance to lower rates significantly is influenced by concerns over bank profitability and the stability of the banking sector, as further cuts could exacerbate vulnerabilities amid rising non-performing loans [6][7]. - Fiscal policy is expected to take precedence in 2026, with a focus on structural reforms and increased government spending to address consumption challenges, indicating a departure from reliance on macroeconomic easing to solve structural issues [8].

Group 1 - The market's expectation for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates has strengthened, supporting the Australian dollar [2] - The RBA's December meeting minutes indicate increased uncertainty regarding the sufficiency of current monetary policy restrictions, with a focus on the upcoming CPI report on January 28 [2] - Analysts suggest that if the core inflation data for Q4 exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rate hike at the RBA's meeting on February 3 [2] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 83.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, up from 80.1% a week prior, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased from 19.9% to 16.1% [3] - Recent U.S. unemployment data indicates initial jobless claims fell from 224,000 to 214,000, better than the expected 223,000, while continuing claims rose from 1.885 million to 1.923 million [3] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth for Q3 was reported at 4.3%, surpassing market expectations of 3.3% and higher than the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [3] Group 3 - Australia's December consumer inflation expectations rose from 4.5% in November to 4.7%, reinforcing the RBA's hawkish stance [4] - The Australian dollar is testing the psychological resistance level of 0.6700 against the U.S. dollar, with positive performance above the 9-day moving average [4][6] - If the Australian dollar breaks below the 9-day moving average at 0.6681, it may open up space for adjustment towards the six-month low of 0.6414 [6]

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 美元温和反弹也给黄金价格带来压力，因为这使得非美国买家购买黄金的成本更高。美元的复苏正值 一些投资者在年底前调整仓位之际。 2. 价格下跌还因流动性受限，主要与美国总统特朗普对关键矿产调查提出建议的最后期限以及假期交易 清淡有关。 3. 黄金今年以来上涨约65%，但白银表现更加亮眼，在关键矿产地位、供应短缺以及工业和投资需求上 升推动下，白银今年以来暴涨147%。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： | | | 欧元兑美元 (EURUSD) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日内方向 | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏多 | | | | 阻力 | 1.1781 | 1.1791 | 1.1800 | | 支撑 | 1.1763 | 1.1749 | 1.1738 | | 动能 | | 动适中（实时变化）全品种量化周期大于3年，参考价值≥67.1% | | 点击输入图片描述（最多30字） ●今日关键指标（事件）： 16:00 瑞士12月KOF经济领先指标 FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 尽管金价短期有所回调，但宏观经济环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent expectations for the appreciation of the RMB are favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets, with the central bank's upcoming policy tools expected to be more flexible and focused on domestic demand targets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The fourth quarter monetary policy committee meeting minutes from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasize the importance of expanding domestic demand, reflecting a shift from previous statements regarding small and micro enterprises and real estate [3] - The PBOC's approach to monetary policy is evolving, with a focus on the integrated effects of various policy tools rather than solely on reducing financing costs [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in operating conditions, with a forecast for bank interest margins to bottom out and a recovery in income and profitability as systemic risks are reassessed [1] - Recent market performance indicates a structural rally supported by policy and capital, with bank stocks showing relative stability despite a slight decline in the context of broader market gains [5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to benefit bank stocks, with institutional investors expected to enter the market early in the year, potentially catalyzing performance [5]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半、大致平开，早盘开盘后即大幅下行一波然后 走平，午后小幅下探后略有反弹，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.91%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.28%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.18%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 4823 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 673 亿元逆回 购到期，当日合计净投放 4150 亿元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, is experiencing a strong upward momentum, with the offshore RMB strengthening against the USD, reaching a 15-month high at the 7.0 level, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [1] - It is anticipated that China's monetary and fiscal policies will remain accommodative through 2026, leading to a recovery in overall demand, while global fiscal expansion in the US, Europe, and Japan is expected to improve demand [1] - The CSI A500 index is highlighted for its balanced industry exposure and higher growth potential, making it a favorable option during the structural upgrade cycle, with an annualized return of 9.11% and a volatility of 21.41% since its base period, outperforming the CSI 300 in terms of total returns [2] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index's characteristics of industry balance and coverage of leading companies across various sectors provide investors with a defensive yet growth-oriented investment choice, particularly in volatile markets [2] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which offers a combination of safety and growth potential [2]