财政大臣片山皋月周二在内阁会议后的新闻发布会上表示："货币政策的具体方法通常应该留给日本央 行，我也相信情况确实如此。" 在日本央行行长植田和男发出了迄今为止最明确的信号，暗示本月可能提高利率后的一天，日本的财政 和经济大臣没有表示任何反对意见。 她补充说，政府期望央行"恰当地实施货币政策和运营"，以实现其2%的通胀目标。增长战略大臣木内 康弘逐字重复了这些评论，这表明这一回应是内阁精心策划的，目的是发出一致的支持信号。 （文章来源：新华财经） 片山皋月和木内康弘是上个月与植田举行会议，确认密切协调的两位内阁成员。他们的言论将巩固市场 对日本央行在12月19日宣布提高借贷成本的可能性的猜测。 ...

网上又都是黄金5500，白银80，美元再跌10%之类的话题了，大家又要很兴奋的高喊要做多金银铜了，美国高盛的大卫所罗门、桥水的达利 欧、还有约翰·保尔森这几个老多头联合起来，通过这轮拔网线行动，打了一次现货供需差，赚了一大票，这种走势不洗，后面就要给散户和现 货商去送钱了！而这个市场，很多人都把现货和商品混为一谈，殊不知，一旦消费端通缩，上游的供需的关系立马就失去了核心预计，人类重 回金银本位就意味着下一代的持续通缩，对于大佬是好事，对于普通人而言，别谈自己的金银储备，因为这个市场，其实并不对普通人开放。 因此，我还是这个观点，美元会降息，但按当下的几个市场上的炒作热情和流动性冻结幅度，美元后面依然会紧张（证券化市场和银行市 场）！传统意义上，降息通常对于传统金融而言意味着货币宽松，但按美债这个规模，如果也要走日本模式，同时，我们也跟进的话，估计会 让全球掀起负利率竞赛或者加息大赛，引发金融巨震，因此，2026年对于世界金融的看法请改下观念，很多事情要从流动性和债务的角度去 看！ 而影响市场情绪的另一重要依据就是美国的制造业经济和就业的复苏！ 2025年11月美国ISM制造业PMI指数降至48.2，较上月下降 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow down from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 due to uncertainties in global tariff policies and fluctuations in the technology cycle [1] - Singapore's economy, being highly export-oriented, will face challenges from "2Ts": tariffs and the tech cycle, which will suppress trade-related sectors [1] - Despite external headwinds, Singapore's economy is characterized by "prudent resilience," supported by two internal engines: the modern services sector and a booming construction industry [1] Group 2 - The modern services sector, which includes finance, information communication, and professional services, will continue to act as an economic buffer due to Singapore's status as a global business hub and the benefits of digital transformation [1] - The construction industry is expected to be a growth highlight in 2026, driven by major infrastructure projects such as Changi Airport Terminal 5, Tuas Port, North-South Corridor, and integrated resort expansions [1] Group 3 - In terms of inflation and monetary policy, inflation in Singapore is expected to bottom out and rebound moderately, with overall inflation and core inflation projected at 1.2% and 1.0% respectively for 2026 [2] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is anticipated to maintain current monetary policy parameters in 2026 to retain flexibility in responding to fluctuations [2] Group 4 - The report predicts that the USD/SGD exchange rate will fluctuate between 1.25 and 1.30 in 2026 [3] - The Singapore government is updating its economic blueprint through the "Economic Strategy Review" to ensure long-term economic competitiveness amid increasing global economic fragmentation [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)愈发被市场视为下一任美 联储主席的最热门人选。在被问及这一情况时，特朗普周日在"空军一号"上对记者表示："我已经知道 我要选谁了，没错，我们将公布。"然而，无论最终特朗普的提名人选是谁，他都将接手一个在未来货 币政策利率路径上存在严重分歧并且面临要求进行大刀阔斧改革呼声的美联储。 2025年1月重返白宫开启第二个美国总统任期的唐纳德·特朗普已经知道他将选择谁来担任掌舵美联储货 币政策框架的下一任美联储主席，但目前还不打算公开。Polymarket等知名付费型预测市场平台似乎已 经有了自己的判断，而这位热门人选本人也在刻意保持低调。 尽管这部分谜团似乎将在未来几周内明朗得多，但远不确定的是，新任美联储掌舵者将在何种环境下履 职——而在此之际可能正是美国经济增长的一个重要十字路口。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特被认为是最明显的热门人选，此前已经有媒体对于接替现任美联 储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的五人竞争格局进行了"赔率"分析，实际上确立了市场上的投资者们对于哈塞特 遥遥领先的支持率。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。 "我已 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, despite the hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments and the weak economic performance following the government shutdown have heightened market expectations for a rate cut [1] - The Bank of Japan's governor has signaled a possible interest rate hike, which could negatively impact gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [1][2] Group 2 - Analyst Felix from FPG suggests that while gold prices are generally trending upwards, the tightening of monetary policy by central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, poses a risk to gold price increases [2] - Analyst Chad notes that gold prices have decisively broken the $4200 per ounce level and are expected to test the November 13 high of $4245 per ounce, with potential further increases towards $4300 per ounce if the $4250 level is surpassed [3] - The current market dynamics indicate strong momentum for gold prices, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting further upward potential [3][4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，统计局公布的 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，相对上月 的 49.0%有所改善，不过仍然位于荣枯线下方。 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the details of monetary policy should be left to the Bank of Japan, indicating a collaborative approach between the central bank and the government [1] - The Bank of Japan and the government agree that the economy is gradually recovering, with expectations for the central bank to manage policies towards a 2% inflation target [1] - There is no divergence in economic views between the Bank of Japan and the government, and both will monitor corporate trends closely [1] Group 2 - Transparency in spending is deemed crucial for fiscal trust, highlighting the importance of clear financial practices [1] - The reliance on imports means that fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate will impact prices, emphasizing the interconnectedness of currency value and inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katsuyuki Kitamura, emphasized that there is no divergence between the government and the Bank of Japan regarding economic assessments, highlighting their collaboration towards achieving price targets and fiscal sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - Both the government and the Bank of Japan believe that the Japanese economy is "moderately recovering" [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to implement "appropriate monetary policy" to sustainably and stably achieve its price targets, reaffirming the independence of the central bank [1] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to coordinate with the ruling party on the review of subsidy projects and investment funds [1] - There is an intention to seek public opinion on "wasteful spending" issues by the end of the year [1] - Tax reform and budget preparation for next year will reflect the outcomes of government spending reviews conducted by an expert group [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank's recent communication has significantly increased market expectations for a potential interest rate hike in December, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda that suggest a decision will be made during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market pricing for a December rate hike surged from 20% to 80% following Ueda's remarks, indicating a strong shift in investor sentiment [1]. - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to recent highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate has declined due to narrowing interest rate differentials [2]. - Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp decline, reflecting concerns over potential market volatility similar to that seen in December 2022 [2][9]. Group 2: Diverging Views on Rate Hike - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance to view a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, citing Ueda's unusual direct mention of the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs remains cautious, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may wait for more corporate wage data before making a decision, with a January hike being more likely [3][7]. Group 3: Ueda's Statements - Ueda's comments during a meeting with business leaders highlighted the importance of gathering information on corporate wage positions ahead of the December meeting [4]. - He expressed optimism about wage growth, noting that major labor unions are targeting salary increases of 5% or more, and that corporate surveys indicate many companies plan to maintain or exceed this year's wage increases [5]. Group 4: Risks of Rate Hike - The potential for a surprise rate hike in December raises concerns about market stability, particularly given the historical context of the December 2022 market turmoil [8][9]. - The current market environment shows a disconnect between central bank communication and market expectations, heightening vulnerability to sudden policy changes [8].