Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and suggests there is no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The FOMC has shifted monetary policy from a moderately restrictive stance to a level close to neutral, which is conducive to supporting labor market stability and pushing inflation back to the 2% target [1] - It is crucial for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Williams projects GDP growth for this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing this year and declining in subsequent years [1] - In terms of inflation, he expects price pressures to peak in the first half of this year between 2.75% and 3%, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [3][5][6] - The monetary policy will adapt to the macroeconomic environment, with a strong emphasis on supporting the economy through counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing the efficiency of existing policies rather than simply increasing them [4][6][7] - Analysts predict that the monetary policy will see three major changes: a greater focus on high-quality development and price stability, innovation in liquidity transmission mechanisms, and a combination of overall easing with precise structural tools [5][9] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to pay more attention to the effectiveness of policy transmission and implementation quality, with plans to narrow interest rate corridors and stabilize government bond yield curves [7][8] - The central bank will flexibly and efficiently utilize various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, adapting to internal and external economic conditions [8][9] - There is an anticipated increase in new RMB loans and social financing, supported by the moderately loose monetary policy, which aims to boost consumer spending, stabilize investment, and support the real estate market [9]

转自：贵州日报 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有观点分析指出，如果联邦检察官通过诉讼裁定鲍威尔有罪，特朗普将可依法解除其职务。虽然此类诉 讼通常难以迅速得出最终结果，但若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确定性。一旦出现美 联储主席空缺，即便鲍威尔继续担任美联储理事，美联储决策也可能出现混乱和真空。 自第二次出任美国总统以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for December 2025 is expected to show a year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans and social financing, reflecting a trend of moderate monetary policy and structural optimization in credit [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Predictions - In December 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion yuan, and new social financing reached 2.86 trillion yuan [2]. - Predictions for December 2025 include new RMB loans ranging from 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan, with social financing expected to be between 2 trillion and 2.2 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The M2 growth rate is anticipated to decline to 7.9% by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [2][3]. Group 2: Analysis and Insights - Analysts suggest that while a decrease in new loans and social financing is expected, it is important to analyze financial data over a longer time frame rather than focusing on individual monthly fluctuations [3]. - As of November 2025, the total RMB loan balance reached 271 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale exceeded 440 trillion yuan [3]. - The People's Bank of China indicates that a natural decline in financial growth rates aligns with the transition of the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The gradual slowdown in credit growth is linked to the economic structural transformation, which is leading to a shift in credit demand and a positive substitution by direct financing [4]. - Future evaluations of financial support should focus on the effectiveness of interest rate reductions and the intensity of financial support for key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and small and medium-sized enterprises [4].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has escalated, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential implications for monetary policy and consumer credit markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - Federal prosecutors are investigating Powell, focusing on his public statements and expenditure records, which have been approved by Trump's allies [2]. - Powell has faced criticism from Trump for refusing to lower interest rates, and Trump has indicated he will soon announce a successor to Powell [2][7]. - Powell claims the investigation is a political maneuver aimed at exerting pressure on him regarding interest rate decisions, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to operate free from political influence [2][3]. Group 2: Administrative Interventions in Interest Rates - Trump has taken steps to directly influence interest rates, including instructing government-sponsored enterprises to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, viewed as a form of "quantitative easing" [4][5]. - He has also proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% starting January 20, 2026, which is seen as an attempt to bypass the Federal Reserve [5]. - Analysts suggest that these actions may have limited short-term financial impact but could significantly alter market perceptions and the valuation framework for mortgage-backed securities [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Market Reactions - Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager, warns that artificially lowering interest rates could lead banks to withdraw credit card services, pushing consumers towards unregulated lending markets with worse terms [1][5]. - The potential for increased inflation due to political pressure on the Federal Reserve raises concerns about long-term economic stability and the impact on future elections for the Republican Party [6]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for achieving price stability and managing inflation, which is a significant concern for the public [6][3].

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices continued to rise, with the Zheng cotton futures main contract reaching 15,035 yuan/ton on January 7, a 1.5-year high, before slightly retreating. The average settlement price for the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 14,806 yuan/ton, up 291 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 2.0% increase. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,712 yuan/ton, up 242 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase compared to the previous week [2] - International cotton prices experienced a brief rise due to strong domestic Zheng cotton prices and expectations of reduced U.S. cotton planting area, but faced downward pressure from weak U.S. cotton export data. The average settlement price for the New York cotton futures main contract was 64.69 cents/pound, up 0.45 cents/pound, a 0.7% increase from the previous week. The average international cotton index (M) price was 72.6 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,435 yuan/ton (calculated with a 1% tariff, excluding port and handling fees), down 87 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The price difference between domestic and international cotton expanded to 3,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 329 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The global supply of cotton is tightening, while terminal consumption shows signs of recovery. Brazil's cotton exports reached 453,000 tons in December 2025, with a total annual export of 3.03 million tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, effectively supplementing global supply. The Indian Cotton Association raised its production estimate for the current year to 5.262 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.77%, alleviating concerns about reduced production [5] - U.S. cotton exports remain weak, with a net contract volume of only 32,000 tons as of January 1, a further decline from the previous week, indicating weak spot demand. A recent survey indicated that U.S. cotton planting intentions for the 2026 season are expected to drop to 9.505 million acres, a decrease of 270,000 acres year-on-year, reflecting declining farmer enthusiasm and suggesting potential tightening of future supply [5] - The global apparel consumption demand is expected to recover, with inventory levels in major markets like the U.S. and South Korea dropping to near three-year lows. The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 54 in January, the highest in four months, reinforcing expectations for improved terminal demand [5] - Domestic new cotton sales continue to increase, with a national cotton sales rate of 55.6% as of January 8, up 24.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The volume of cotton inspected has reached nearly 6.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5] - The downstream cotton yarn market shows mixed performance, with high and medium count yarns selling well, while low count yarns face sluggish sales. The operating rate of spinning enterprises remains stable but slightly decreased, with limited new order quantities [5][6] Market Dynamics - The domestic cotton market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with tightening supply expectations clashing with sluggish downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. Additionally, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are causing short-term fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, which are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [6]

分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 有观点分析指出，如果联邦检察官通过诉讼裁定鲍威尔有罪，特朗普将可依法解除其职务。虽然此类诉 讼通常难以迅速得出最终结果，但若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确 ...

Group 1 - Hassett clarifies that Trump's views on interest rates are unrelated to the Justice Department's investigation of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the independence of both institutions [1] - He criticizes the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, attributing the current lack of economic prosperity in the U.S. to these policies [1] - Hassett confirms that the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters has significantly exceeded its budget, indicating a discrepancy with Chairman Powell's previous testimony [1] Group 2 - On employment issues, Hassett refrains from determining whether a 4.4% unemployment rate signifies "full employment," attributing recent high layoff numbers to federal government downsizing and the deportation of illegal immigrants [2] - He asserts that government economic policies are effective and predicts that measures aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing will lead to more hiring in the second half of the year [2] - Hassett expresses interest in potentially succeeding as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve [2]

新华社纽约1月12日电 新闻分析｜美联储主席遭刑事调查 货币政策不确定性增加 新华社记者刘亚南 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 从货币政策看，美联储在2025年9月至12月连续三次降息25个基点后， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]