Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, although there are short - term fluctuations after continuous rises, the long - term direction is still favorable. In the bond market, interest rates may have downward space in the long run, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, the Fed's potential continuous interest rate cuts are expected to drive up precious metal prices, especially silver. In the non - ferrous metals market, most metals are expected to have different degrees of price support, while zinc shows an oversupply situation. In the black building materials market, the demand for steel products is weak, and the prices are under pressure, while the price of iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products also present different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI also increased. The policy shows care for the capital market. After recent continuous rises, the market may have increased short - term fluctuations, but the long - term is still a buying - on - dips strategy [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The performance of treasury bond contracts on Friday showed small increases. The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The sales of real estate enterprises from January to August decreased year - on - year. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 4217 billion yuan. In the long run, interest rates may have downward space, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern [4][5]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures rose, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver fell. Due to the personnel changes in the Fed and the marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed is expected to enter an interest - rate - cut cycle, which is a significant positive factor for precious metal prices, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The copper price showed a volatile upward trend. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the supply of scrap copper was tight. The开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined. With the approach of the peak season and the support of fundamentals, the copper price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price rebounded on Friday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is relatively low, and the demand has improved marginally. With the Fed's dovish signal and the expectation of interest rate cuts in September, the aluminum price has strong support. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes [10]. Zinc - The zinc price showed a weak trend. The zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the zinc ingot social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is high, the zinc price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern in the short term [11]. Lead - The lead price declined slightly. The lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and the processing fee was in a downward trend. The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price is expected to be strong [12]. Nickel - The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable. The price of nickel iron is expected to be stable and strong, and the price of intermediate products is expected to be strong. In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [13][14]. Tin - The domestic tin price rose sharply last week due to the shortage of tin ore supply. The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in September, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to be strong and volatile [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate showed a weak adjustment. With the approach of the peak season in the lithium - battery industry, the supply - demand relationship is gradually repairing, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news [17]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased. The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the macro - sentiment is improving. The short - term downward space of the alumina price is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased slightly. The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approach of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly [19][20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy was stable. The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the inventory is increasing. With the support of cost and the increase in market activity, the price is expected to be high in the short term [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the profit of steel mills is shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipping is stable, the demand for iron ore decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. The soda ash price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to decline. The supply of manganese silicon is increasing, and the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly volatile, with over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand. The polysilicon price is in the pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", and the price is expected to fluctuate [33][34][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - The rubber price is expected to be strong in the short term. The rainy weather in Thailand may drive up the price. The mid - term strategy is a long - position strategy. It is recommended to buy on dips and close positions quickly [38][42]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil showed a mixed trend. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for crude oil but not to chase the high price [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol decreased. The domestic supply is increasing, the port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. Urea - The price of urea decreased. The domestic supply decreased due to the increase in maintenance devices, and the demand is mainly concentrated in exports. It is recommended to buy on dips [46]. Styrene - The price of styrene decreased. The cost - end supply is abundant, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The long - term price is expected to rebound [47]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased slightly. The supply is still in excess, and the mid - term inventory is expected to accumulate. The short - term price is supported by less arrivals and policy sentiment, but the mid - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - The price of PTA decreased. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the demand improved. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene decreased. The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is expected to be low. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene decreased. The cost - end has support, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The price is expected to be volatile and upward [53][54]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene decreased. The supply pressure is large, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply in September may be weak, but the demand and other factors have potential support for the pig price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound of the disk [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend with partial increases. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is flat. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and use the backwardation strategy [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean meal was weak last week and increased slightly over the weekend. The supply of global protein raw materials is in excess, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost needs to be tested. The soybean meal price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the low - end of the cost range [59][60]. Oils and Fats - The price of oils and fats decreased. The fundamentals support the price center of oils and fats. The palm oil price is expected to be volatile and strong before the full accumulation of inventory and the negative feedback of demand [61][63]. Sugar - The price of sugar was volatile. The domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the valuation is high. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the international sugar price [64][65]. Cotton - The price of cotton was volatile. Although the downstream consumption is average, with the approach of the peak season and the low inventory, the cotton price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [66].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended [1] - Silver: Long position recommended [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound and then decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in September [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Overall, the report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, suggesting different investment strategies based on their respective fundamentals, market conditions, and macro - economic factors. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise due to interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks; copper is favored in the long - term due to supply shortages and increasing demand; while zinc is considered a short - position option as supply increases and demand weakens [1][3][7]. Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price center has shifted upwards, and silver has broken through historical highs [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation has rebounded (July core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year), the Fed may cut interest rates, and there are geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, it's difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long term, it may enter a long - bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, there is support around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 803. For silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakthrough. In the long run, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has strengthened in a volatile manner [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and there are contradictions between short - term inventory accumulation and long - term demand growth [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and new investors can buy on dips. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 78,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of 9,800 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Demand is weak during the off - season, and domestic inventory has increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and in the long term, sell on rallies. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebound is under pressure, and alumina is relatively weak [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are strong. Aluminum production has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. Alumina supply is expected to be loose in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprises' operating rates. The main operating range is 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is also under pressure [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment has weakened. The nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with refined nickel supply in surplus and nickel sulfate in short supply. Stainless steel inventory decline has slowed down, and the off - season pressure remains [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [19] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, with the closing gain narrowing [21] - **Industrial Logic**: A mine in Jiangxi has renewed its mining license, but the situation of other mines is uncertain. Production is stable, demand is picking up, and total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the price to stabilize in the range of 76,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton [23]

Market Overview - A-shares led global markets with a 0.8% increase, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.0%[7] - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar[7] Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, higher than the initial estimate of 3.0%[15] - The core PCE price index in the US rose by 2.88% year-on-year in July, slightly below the expected 2.89%[15] Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan consumer confidence index in the US dropped to 58.2 from 61.7[25] - Eurozone consumer confidence index fell to -15.5 from -14.7, indicating increased pessimism[30] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 229,000, down by 5,000 from the previous week[17] - Personal disposable income in the US grew by 4.6% year-on-year in July, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7%[19] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations in the US rose to 4.8% from 4.5%[25] - The five-year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 3.5% from 3.4%[25] Policy Outlook - Multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction[36] - The Japanese central bank signaled a more favorable environment for potential interest rate hikes compared to April[38]

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]

Market Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the main contract for zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 22,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 8,800 contracts [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the zinc futures opened at 22,220 CNY/ton, reached a high of 22,465 CNY/ton, and a low of 22,030 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.47% [1] Inventory and Supply - On August 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported zinc warehouse receipts of 36,037 tons, a decrease of 176 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered zinc warehouse receipts of 43,500 tons and canceled receipts of 14,500 tons, with a reduction of 3,750 tons; total zinc inventory was 58,000 tons, down by 2,025 tons [2] - As of August 28, the total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions in China was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons compared to August 21 and an increase of 6,000 tons compared to August 25 [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, domestic maintenance in August was limited, leading to an increase in refined zinc production to approximately 621,500 tons, keeping supply ample; however, downstream demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and environmental restrictions affecting production and transportation in North China [3] - Hualian Futures noted that the speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting has led to a gradual digestion of market sentiment; upcoming macro data to watch includes the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July [3] - Basic data indicates that maintenance in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Henan will lead to reduced output, while recovery in Yunnan, Hunan, and Guangxi will offset this; overall, a slight decrease in production is expected next month [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, emphasizing the potential for a rebound in precious metals. The A-share bull market does not necessarily imply that gold will underperform, as the focus remains on the gold price itself. Three catalysts have driven the gold price breakout: 1) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising to nearly 90%; 2) Renewed geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade concerns due to Trump's 50% tariff on India; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, highlighting the potential for a rebound in the precious metals sector. The report suggests that the second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly-level resonance in gold stocks across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The report recommends increasing allocations to gold stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [6][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are in the early stages of a cyclical reversal, with copper and aluminum leading the way. The recent rebound in industrial metals is attributed to enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. The report notes that copper inventories have decreased, while aluminum inventories have increased. It anticipates that copper and aluminum demand may decline in the second half of the year, but supply elasticity will limit the extent of deterioration. The report suggests that copper and aluminum equities may outperform as the cycle reverses [7][6]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report highlights the strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, as they are expected to undergo a value reassessment. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to recover due to improved orders and government policies emphasizing resource control. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as they are likely to benefit from these trends [8][6].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：破3500前高，趋势再度突破；白银：新一轮上涨启动 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：782-812元/克、9400-9800元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.85%，伦敦银回升2.09%。金银比从前周的88.7回升至88.8，10年期TIPS回落至1.82%，10年期名义利率回落至4.23%（2年 期3.59%），美元指数录得97. 84。 ◆ 本周金银大幅上涨，尤其是周五黄金白银纷纷突破前高，COMEX黄金收于3516.1美元/盎司，伦敦金收于3447美元/盎司，沪金收于791.28元/ 克；COMEX白银收于40.75美元/盎司，伦敦银收于39.67美元/盎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The weekly price changes for copper are +1.54% (London), +0.91% (Shanghai), and +2.78% (New York). The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6][28]. - For aluminum, the report suggests that prices will remain volatile due to rising inventory levels. The current price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3185 CNY/ton, and the operating rate for metallurgical-grade alumina has dropped to 82.4% [6][39]. - Lithium prices are expected to rebound as demand increases during the peak season, despite a recent decline in prices. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton [6][83]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to a decrease in raw material imports and an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to a supply shortage in Q4 [6][97]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with the sector index rising by 7.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.32 percentage points [12][21]. - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims and core PCE inflation, which may impact market sentiment [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with London copper increasing by 1.54% and Shanghai copper by 0.91%. The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper inventory by 2.39% [25][28]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable, with current prices at 20,730 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight increase in aluminum production margins [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a minor increase, while zinc prices have fluctuated, with a significant drop in London zinc inventory [51][62]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have risen by 5.61% in London and 3.56% in Shanghai, while nickel prices have also shown positive movement [65][69]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased recently, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices due to increased demand in the upcoming peak season [83]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a decrease in imports [97].

Key Points - The core issue revolves around President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior, which raises concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank [1][4][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions and statements indicate a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 80% [3][12] - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite political tensions, with inflationary pressures from tariffs being viewed as temporary and not significantly hindering the likelihood of a rate cut [12][18] Economic Data - The U.S. July Core PCE Price Index remained stable at 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][7] - New home sales in the U.S. fell by 0.6% in July to an annualized rate of 652,000 units, exceeding market expectations of 630,000 units [7] - The second quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3%, surpassing both the expected 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3% [7] Market Reactions - Following recent economic data, U.S. stock markets experienced a pullback, attributed to profit-taking after a period of gains and rising concerns over tariffs [3][12] - The dollar has weakened while gold prices have risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment as expectations for a rate cut approach [12][18] Central Bank Developments - The ongoing legal dispute initiated by Lisa Cook against President Trump highlights the contentious relationship between the administration and the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting market confidence [5][4] - The Trump administration is reportedly exploring ways to exert more influence over the Federal Reserve, including the selection process for regional bank presidents [4][5]