Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has recently shown a strong rebound, reaching a multi-day increase, with a cumulative rise of over 2% as of July 17, supported by higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [1][5] - The Chinese yuan has shown mixed performance against the dollar, with the central parity rate reaching its strongest level since November at 7.1461, while the offshore yuan depreciated over 200 points recently [1][7] - The expectation of a weaker yuan is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs set to take effect on August 1, with the People's Bank of China showing a willingness to stabilize the yuan [1][7] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now at 53.5%, down from 59.3% [5][6] - The inflation data for June indicates that tariffs are beginning to have an impact, with significant price increases in categories like home goods and appliances, which are targeted by tariffs [6] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index is likely to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 99, with a breakthrough at this level indicating a move towards 100 [6][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential implications for the US economy and the dollar's strength, as increased tariff revenues could embolden further tariff actions by the Trump administration [8][9] - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus plans may outweigh their economic benefits, potentially impacting the dollar's performance [9][10] - The ongoing increase in tariff revenues is not expected to sufficiently address the worsening fiscal deficit, leading to potential volatility in long-term US Treasury yields [10]

金十数据7月17日讯，摩根大通分析师Ilan Benhamou表示："美联储不受政治压力影响" 的说法是一个 "神话"，同时，基于降息即将到来的押注，美国股市可能会继续飙升。身为摩根大通股票衍生品销售团 队成员的Benhamou称："当前我们眼前正在发生的事情，几十年来一直在幕后上演。当下的情况与1965 年林登・约翰逊总统与美联储主席比尔・马丁的冲突相似。"随着鲍威尔的美联储主席任期即将结束这 一事实逐渐清晰，投资者将开始关注下一届美联储主席的政策。他建议客户继续做多标普500指数和波 动率指数，这一双重押注的逻辑是：投资者会将更多资金投入加密货币、人工智能等风险资产；同时， 由于关税、通胀及美联储相关的不确定性，市场波动性将加剧。 摩根大通："美联储不受政治压力"是神话 美股或因降息押注续涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, strategic allocation [1] - Silver: High - level oscillation, maintain a long - position mindset [1][3] - Copper: Oscillation, long - term bullish, short - term pay attention to the risk of pullback [1][6] - Zinc: Under pressure, seize short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][11] - Nickel: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][13] - Industrial silicon: High - level operation [1] - Polysilicon: High - level operation, take appropriate profit - taking for long positions [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global order is being reshaped, with fiscal and monetary double - easing trends remaining unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. However, short - term adjustments may occur, and the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend [3]. - For copper, although there is a risk of short - term pullback due to inventory and demand factors, the long - term outlook is positive as copper is an important strategic resource and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to alleviate [6]. - Zinc is facing short - term pressure due to factors such as the repair of processing fees, anti - dumping of overseas steel, and tariff uncertainties. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens [9]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, inventory accumulates, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to factors such as tariff disturbances, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are at high levels, but there are also factors restricting their upward movement, such as high inventory for industrial silicon and high prices and margin increases for polysilicon [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with the market affected by rumors and inventory contradictions, and the fundamentals have marginally improved but the inventory accumulation trend remains [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver maintained high - level oscillation due to low US inflation, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the possible dismissal of Powell [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US inflation was lower than expected in June; Trump considered dismissing Powell, threatening the independence of the Fed; there are geopolitical issues regarding the Iran nuclear problem; and there are still many tariff variables, with the global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing trends unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position mindset should be adopted [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased due to new smelter projects. The inventory of LME copper increased by over 10,000 tons, and there are concerns about the return of excess copper inventory from the US to the Asian market. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the demand from the power and automotive sectors has offset the weak demand from the real estate construction sector [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the pullback pressure caused by the verification of demand, but expect the deep decline of copper prices to be limited. Consider buying on dips after pullbacks. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000 - 79,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9600 - 9800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose in 2025, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates have continued to rebound. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 7.7% overnight. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure to decline. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens. Seize short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21,800 - 22,200] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2680 - 2780] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite remains high, and some domestic enterprises have carried out maintenance and production suspension, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas environment is uncertain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The domestic supply - demand situation has improved limitedly, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and closed higher, with shrinking trading volume [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand have both increased, but the total inventory has reached a new high and has been accumulating for 6 consecutive weeks. The supply has increased significantly, and the terminal demand has both positive and negative factors. The main contract is difficult to decline deeply but is also restricted by high inventory [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will operate at a high level in the short term, with the range of [65,500 - 67,500] yuan/ton [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are currently bearish, trading below $37.91, with a daily decline of 0.01% and a range between $37.74 and $38.03 [1] - The U.S. June PPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with market expectations at 2.5% [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with cautious hiring by businesses and a decline in auto sales due to tariffs [2] Group 2 - Predictions indicate that silver may experience a slight rebound, hovering near the 5-day moving average, with support around $37.4-$37.5 [3] - Upcoming economic indicators include the Eurozone June CPI final value and U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, among others [4] - Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to discuss various economic topics, including housing and the impact of artificial intelligence [4]

Economic Growth - The overall economic activity in the U.S. has shown "slight growth" from late May to early July, indicating an improvement compared to the previous report [1] - Economic recovery is uneven, with only 5 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting slight or moderate growth, while 5 districts remained flat and 2 experienced moderate declines [2] - Businesses are maintaining a cautious approach, viewing uncertainty as the biggest constraint, which directly impacts hiring and investment decisions [2] Inflation - Concerns about rising prices are prevalent, primarily driven by tariffs, which have significantly increased input costs across nearly all regions, especially in manufacturing and construction [3] - Companies are attempting to pass some of these costs onto consumers through price increases, but rising consumer price sensitivity is creating resistance, squeezing profit margins [3] - The persistence of cost-push inflation suggests that consumer prices may accelerate towards the end of summer, posing further challenges to purchasing power [3] Labor Market - The labor market shows mixed signals, with slight improvements in overall employment levels but cautious hiring practices [4] - There is an improvement in labor supply, with lower turnover rates and increased job applications, yet structural issues like skilled labor shortages persist [4] - Companies are increasingly investing in automation and artificial intelligence to address labor supply challenges and reduce costs, indicating potential structural adjustments in the labor market [4] Consumer and Investment - Consumer spending, particularly non-auto purchases, has declined in most regions, reflecting overall weak performance [5] - Automotive sales have also seen a moderate decline after consumers made early purchases to avoid tariffs [5] - Businesses are postponing capital expenditure plans due to uncertainty, which could suppress future economic growth momentum [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report serves as a critical reference for Federal Reserve policymakers, indicating a complex policy path ahead [6] - The interplay between cost-push inflation from tariffs and consumer price sensitivity will require careful assessment by the Federal Reserve [6] - The fragile economic growth and cautious hiring in the labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to consider easing policies to support the economy in the future [6] Overall Economic Outlook - The July 2025 Beige Book presents a picture of the U.S. economy navigating through uncertainty, with cost pressures from tariffs, weak consumer spending, and cautious business investment as primary challenges [8] - Understanding these underlying trends is crucial for investors, businesses, and consumers, emphasizing the need for vigilance and flexibility in response to the current economic landscape [8]

北京时间16日晚11点左右，主流美媒开始报道有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的消息。 16日晚12点左右，特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔和解雇信的存在，并称他在此事上比共和党人更保守。特 朗普表示，大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非证明其在大楼翻新事件中存在欺诈行为。 评论称，美国6月生产者价格指数持平，缓解了昨日消费者价格指数报告给美联储带来的部分鹰派压 力，美元因此走势震荡。预测人士会结合这两项通胀指标，来估算美联储青睐的个人消费支出物价指数 ——该数据将于本月晚些时候公布。目前只有少量初步迹象显示关税正对部分商品价格构成压力，而上 述数据则暗示PCE可能走软。不确定性或许会让美联储维持当前政策的时间更长，这有可能对美元形成 支撑。 美联储威廉慕斯表示，今年美国经济预计将增长约1%，失业率预计到年底升至4.5%。6月份整体通胀率 可能为2.5%，核心通胀率可能为2.75%。经济面临更多不确定性。关税可能会推动进一步的通胀。目前 经济状况良好，劳动力市场稳健。关税对经济影响尚处"初期阶段"，关税措施应在2025年剩余时间及 2026年期间推动通胀率上升一个百分点。今年通胀率将维持在3%至3.5%之间。就业增长和劳动力供应 都在放缓 ...

锌：承压运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 17 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22030 | -0.25% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2701.5 | -1.13% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 75299 | -43739 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 12169 | 2607 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 101973 | 17669 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 187176 | -7174 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 30 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -9.95 | -4.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | - ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but still higher than the previous value, indicating inflationary pressures [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in prices is significantly influenced by the U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the increase or threat of increased tariffs on major trading partners [3] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was a call from the U.S. President for a 3% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which sparked criticism regarding interference with the central bank's independence [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates, and a reduced likelihood of a cut in September to around 50% [3] - The inflation rebound and cooling rate cut expectations have led to a sell-off in the U.S. bond market, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks and bonds has put pressure on the dollar, resulting in a rare situation where U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all under pressure [3] - Analysts warn of the potential risk of a "triple whammy" affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if inflation exceeds expectations, particularly as high valuations in the stock market may face downward adjustments due to slowing growth expectations [3]