要说白银这波行情，还真是有它的底气。一方面，美联储降息预期越来越强，美元走弱的可能性加大， 黄金白银这些避险资产自然就水涨船高。另一方面，工业需求也在给白银撑腰，光伏、新能源这些行业 对白银的需求量可不小，特别是光伏产业，每块电池板都得用上白银，这个基本盘相当扎实。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今早一开盘，就被白银价格刷了屏——这家伙居然悄无声息地创下了历史新 高，像一匹脱缰的野马，让不少投资者直呼意外。说真的，做了二十年财经记者，专注中长线投资的 我，看到这种走势也忍不住要仔细琢磨琢磨。 对于中长线投资者来说，现在这个时点更需要理性看待。如果你已经持有白银相关的资产，不妨考虑分 批止盈，锁定部分利润；如果还没进场，倒也不必急着追高，可以等待回调的机会。毕竟投资不是赌大 小，稳扎稳打才能走得更远。 我是帮主郑重，二十年市场经验告诉我：热闹的地方要谨慎，寂寞的地方要耐心。白银这波行情虽然诱 人，但真正的机会永远属于那些看得懂、拿得住的投资者。记住，投资最重要的是控制好风险，而不是 追求一夜暴富。 帮主的策略思考 不过话说回来，任何资产价格涨得太猛，总会让人心里打鼓。帮主我翻看了历史数据，发现白银的波动 性向来比黄金大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a significant increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, leading to a notable rise in gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has risen from approximately 50% a week ago to nearly 90% [1] - The U.S. dollar index has declined as a result of these expectations [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movement - International gold prices rebounded to a half-month high, with February futures rising by 1.25% [1] - The main contract for New York gold futures has seen a continuous increase this week, with a cumulative rise of 4.3% [1] - Throughout November, gold prices have increased by nearly 6.5%, marking four consecutive months of gains, driven by safe-haven buying, rate cut expectations, and increased purchases by multiple central banks [1]

Core Insights - International precious metal prices have significantly increased, with London spot silver prices surpassing $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - Silver futures for March delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $57.16 per ounce, marking a record high with a rise of 6.6% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increased holdings in silver ETFs, and ongoing supply tightness [1] - International gold prices also rebounded to a half-month high, with February delivery gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closing at $4254.9 per ounce, up 1.25% [1] - A cooling system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange data center on the evening of the 27th caused trading interruptions across stock, forex, bond, and commodity markets, amplifying market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price surged to a two-week high, reaching $4219.20 per ounce, with a 1.49% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have shown significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1328 CNY per gram, up 10 CNY from the previous day [2] - Market analysis indicates that gold prices will be influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a consensus that December rate cuts are likely, weakening the medium-term strength of the US dollar [4] Group 2 - Predictions suggest that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce and an average increase of 8% to 12% by Q1 2026 [4] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are expected to continue driving international gold price trends, while macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, may lead to price volatility [4]

大家周末好，早上起来看了一下消息面，主要是券茅的减持，以及昨夜贵金属价格的大涨，尤其是白银价格大涨超6%，包括美股出现了5连阳，这些现象对 投资到底有什么影响呢，接下来听我慢慢说： 1、昨天晚上堪称"券茅"的东方财富发布公告称，三名高管自公告披露之日起的十五个交易日后的三个月内进行减持，计划减持合计不超过总股本的0.022% 的上市股份，如果以昨天的收盘价23.4元计算，这次三位高管减持的市值最多为7839万元。 其一白银和黄金不同的地方，在于不仅仅有贵金属的属性，在过去白银本身就有货币属性，另外白银还有工业属性，从2021年以来白银就始终处于供不应求 的状态，简单说白银价格的上涨，一定是供给层面的偏紧引发； 其二就是黄金一样的属性了，那就是对美联储降息的预期，从现在的情况看，12月美元降息的概率已经逼近90%，就是说降息基本上没啥悬念了，这个时候 抗通胀的概念都会上涨，比如说昨夜黄金大涨了1.29%，已经飙升到了4256美元。 所以说，简单总结白银和黄金的上涨都属于对降息预期的升温，白银有所不同的是，还受到了工业需求增加的影响，所以在绝对涨幅和弹性上稍微要超出黄 金。 但是从操作层面来说，白银昨夜大涨之后出 ...

Group 1: Silver Market - On the 28th, international silver prices saw a significant increase, with spot silver prices briefly surpassing $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - The New York silver futures for March delivery closed at $57.16 per ounce, marking a rise of 6.6% [1] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose on the 28th, with market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increasing from about 50% to nearly 90% within a week, alongside a declining dollar index [1] - February delivery gold futures prices increased by 1.25%, with the New York gold futures main contract price rising by a cumulative 4.3% for the week [1] - In November, driven by safe-haven buying, heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut, and increased gold purchases by central banks globally, the New York gold futures main contract price rose nearly 6.5%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases [1] Group 3: Oil Market - As of the close on the 28th, international oil prices experienced a slight decline, with ongoing concerns about persistent oversupply in the global crude oil market dominating [1] - The New York crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures main contract prices fell by 3.98% and 2.87% respectively in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines, the longest losing streak in 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month have surged from approximately 50% a week ago to nearly 90%, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rebound in international gold prices to a half-month high [1] Group 1 - Gold futures for February delivery increased by 1.25% [1] - The main contract price for New York gold futures rose significantly throughout the week, accumulating a total increase of 4.3% [1] - In November, driven by safe-haven buying, heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut, and increased gold purchases by central banks globally, the main contract price for New York gold futures rose nearly 6.5%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month have surged from approximately 50% a week ago to nearly 90%, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rebound in international gold prices to a half-month high [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The New York gold futures main contract price has risen significantly this week, with a cumulative increase of 4.3% [1] - In November, driven by safe-haven buying, heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and increased gold purchases by central banks globally, the New York gold futures main contract price rose nearly 6.5%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains [1] Group 2: Price Movements - February gold futures prices increased by 1.25% [1]

大宗与能源：宏观资金与地缘预期主导走势。原油连续两日反弹，市场聚焦周末的 OPEC+ 会议，从目 前信息看，产量政策大概率维持稳定。 在美联储降息预期明显升温、地缘局势不断扰动的背景下，本周全球市场呈现出强烈的分化特征：实体 经济端的裁员信号不断累积，而资产端在宽松预期与科技盈利支撑下依旧保持韧性。美元连续走弱，黄 金在多重利好推动下稳稳处于高位区间。 关于政策路径，市场本周对美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的定价进一步抬升，概率一度上探至 82.8%– 87% 区间，属于本轮周期最明显的宽松押注之一。同时，哈西特（Kevin Hassett）成为下任美联储主席 的热门候选，其偏宽松的政策立场也强化了市场对未来降息节奏的预期，进而加大了美元的下行动能。 相较之下，欧洲央行继续按兵不动。最新会议纪要显示，大多数决策者认为没有必要在短期内急于继续 降息，暗示本轮周期或临近尾声，为欧元提供一定支撑。整体来看，本周外汇市场的基调仍是"美联储 偏鸽、欧洲维持观望、部分商品货币受本国因素提振"。 外汇市场：随着降息预期快速升温，美元吸引力明显下降。美元指数连续数日走低，预计将录得自 7 月 以来最弱的单周表现。欧元/美 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4219.20 per ounce, marking a 1.49% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1328 CNY per gram, up 10 CNY from the previous day [3] - Market analysis indicates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength, enhancing gold's appeal [5] Group 2 - Predictions suggest that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce by Q1 2026, averaging an increase of 8% to 12% [6] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to continue influencing international gold price trends [6] - The overall risk sentiment and expectations of a low interest rate environment are likely to support gold's attractiveness in the medium term [6]