Core Viewpoints - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, as highlighted by Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan [3][5]. Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to experience a "non-typical" recovery in 2026, driven by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing domestic demand expansion policies. Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of China-U.S. tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [4][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs, with R&D expenditure projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing about 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in scale [5][10]. Capital Market Development - The capital market is set to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with a focus on direct financing and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange. This will enhance the market's inclusiveness and adaptability [5][8]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of the market, with institutional investors' share of the market value projected to exceed 20% by the end of 2024 [8]. Bull Market Analysis - The bull market is far from over, with the potential for a two-phase bull market structure. The first phase, termed "Bull Market 1.0," occurred in 2025, while the second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," may begin in the second half of 2026 [4][15]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals, the strengthening of emerging industries, and the shift of residents' asset allocation towards equities are expected to support a comprehensive bull market [15].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes optimizing the existing structural adjustments and coordinating the enhancement of new growth while revitalizing existing assets, forming a strong policy synergy [1] - Different provinces are adopting various measures based on their resource endowments, such as Hubei's "three assets" management concept and Hunan's total revenue revitalization of approximately 150 billion yuan [1] - The central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are showing an overall upward trend in major indices recently [1] Group 1: Policy and Economic Measures - Hubei proposed a "three assets" management concept to optimize resource allocation [1] - Hunan achieved a total revenue revitalization of about 150 billion yuan [1] - Anhui is constructing a virtuous cycle of "revitalization-debt repayment-reinvestment" [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Products - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Co-Winning ETF (517090) tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Co-Winning Index, focusing on SOEs in globalization and sustainable development [1] - The index samples are selected from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, primarily covering industries such as oil and petrochemicals, and construction decoration [1] - The ETF aims to reflect the overall market performance of Chinese SOEs under the theme of open co-winning [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to understand the complex changes in the development environment and the profound impact of international relations, especially major power dynamics, on China's development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 2 - The first aspect highlights the opportunities and challenges brought by the accelerated evolution of the world situation, including China's increasing international influence and the ongoing trend of economic globalization, despite facing external risks such as geopolitical conflicts and rising protectionism [2] Group 3 - The second aspect outlines China's development advantages, including the unique advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics, a vast market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources, which provide strong support for high-quality development [3] Group 4 - The third aspect addresses the contradictions and issues facing China's development, such as unbalanced and insufficient development, inadequate effective demand, and challenges in modernizing agriculture and rural areas, which require new strategies and solutions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] Group 5 - The conclusion emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence, adapting to changes, and facing challenges head-on to continue the rapid economic development and long-term social stability of China [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The macroeconomic fundamentals in China show a weak recovery, with fixed asset investment declining by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, worsening from a 0.5% decline in the previous period [9] - The real estate sector continues to struggle, with a 14.7% year-on-year drop in real estate development investment, and 70 cities experiencing a continuous decline in new home prices for 28 months [10] - The overall economic recovery remains fragile, with structural pressures from both domestic and external factors, necessitating targeted policy tools to address supply and demand imbalances [10] Group 2: Policy and Economic Strategy - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and revitalizing the agricultural economy, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity and rural modernization [12] - The central government's approach to local governance will prioritize stimulating consumption, particularly in services, as a means to support income and employment, especially for migrant workers [11] - The structural characteristics of central bank policies indicate a need for a balanced approach that does not blindly follow external monetary policy changes, focusing instead on domestic economic recovery [6][7]

宣讲活动引发高校师生强烈反响。广西民族师范学院马克思主义学院教师庄莉表示，学习宣传贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神是思政教师的重要使命，她将及时把全会精神融入课堂教学，把道理讲深讲透 讲活，让全会精神成为学生成长的思想指引。 广西职业师范学院2022级财务会计教育专业学生蒙秋璐表示，作为一名师范生和预备党员，将积极 钻研职教政策与教学方法，努力成为懂技术、善教学的复合型人才，为强国建设和广西高质量发展注入 青春动能。 "报告深入浅出、思想深刻，对我们深刻理解和准确把握党的二十届四中全会精神，具有很强的指 导作用。"广西卫生职业技术学院党委书记牙韩高表示，将深入学习宣传贯彻全会精神，凝心聚力推 进"双高"学校建设，推动学校高质量发展，为谱写中国式现代化广西篇章而努力奋斗。（伍永志 李慧 子 陶昌顺） 自治区宣讲团成员，自治区纪委副书记、自治区监委副主任钟山到广西职业师范学院作宣讲报告。 他围绕全会召开的时代背景、基本情况和重大意义，从准确把握"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代 化进程中的重要地位，全面理解"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针、主要目标、战略任务和重大举 措，深刻领会党中央全面从严治党战略部署、以正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen the leasing industry play a crucial role in supporting high-quality development of the real economy, particularly in areas like equipment upgrades and industrial restructuring [1][2] - Financial leasing companies are focusing on serving the real economy and aligning with national strategies, emphasizing the importance of political tasks and strategic goals [2][3] - Companies are committed to deepening business innovation and enhancing their service capabilities to support the construction of a modern industrial system [4] Group 2 - Companies in various sectors, such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, are aligning their development goals with national strategies, focusing on green transformation and technological innovation [3][4] - The emphasis on "stability while seeking progress" reflects a strategic approach to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the evolving market landscape [2][4] - Financial leasing firms are expected to continue their digital transformation and risk management efforts to provide precise financial services that contribute to the strengthening of the real economy [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to strengthen the real economy, emphasizing the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [1][2] - Financial companies are encouraged to align their services with the strategic needs of their parent groups, enhancing financial service platforms and treasury operations to support high-quality development [1][2] - The plan outlines a clear roadmap for financial companies to integrate financial services with technological innovation, risk management, and value creation [1][3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to build a modern industrial system and strengthen the foundation of the real economy, which has inspired financial companies to enhance their service capabilities [2][3] - Financial companies are focusing on differentiated financial services that align with the strategic goals of their parent companies, emphasizing quality improvement, risk control, and precise empowerment [2][3] - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing international service levels and expanding cross-border financial operations to support initiatives like the Belt and Road [2] Group 3 - Financial companies are setting clear goals to leverage their advantages in integrating finance and industry, focusing on supporting key projects and sectors such as green projects and advanced manufacturing [3][4] - Companies like Tianjin Port Financial Company are aligning their strategies with the construction of world-class green ports and integrated urban development [4] - The focus is on optimizing capital management, enhancing supply chain financial services, and improving risk control capabilities to support the real economy [4][5] Group 4 - The plan emphasizes upgrading key industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemicals to enhance their global competitiveness [5] - Financial companies are tasked with optimizing their capital allocation and enhancing risk management to support the real economy effectively [5] - The industry is encouraged to actively engage in financial services that directly address the needs of industrial upgrades, translating policy directives into tangible support for the real economy [5]

Group 1 - The core issue of "anti-involution" in the industry is to curb price wars and homogeneous competition, which harms corporate interests and hinders technological progress and high-quality development [1] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the focus from scale expansion to quality improvement through policy guidance and market-oriented measures, including tightening energy consumption standards and encouraging industry self-discipline [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, significant improvements have been observed, with polysilicon prices rising from less than 40,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 to 53,000 yuan/ton in November this year, and the average bidding price for components exceeding 0.72 yuan/watt, a 15% increase from previous lows [1] Group 2 - The rumors regarding the consolidation of photovoltaic silicon material production involve integrating quality capacity and eliminating outdated capacity, with plans to acquire around 1 million tons of capacity [2] - Leading companies are expressing intentions to establish a polysilicon integration consortium by the end of the year, indicating potential progress in capacity consolidation [2] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted the focus of the renewable energy industry from rapid growth to high-quality development, with specific tasks outlined to enhance the energy system and promote clean energy [3] - The plan emphasizes the importance of new energy storage and the need for a market and pricing mechanism that supports the new energy system [3] Group 4 - The renewable energy industry in China is expected to experience significant growth over the next five years, with annual new installations likely to exceed levels seen during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] - The plan encourages deeper technological innovation and exploration of application models in the renewable energy sector, including offshore wind and nuclear energy [4] Group 5 - The easing of trade relations between China and the U.S. is anticipated to positively impact the storage industry, particularly in the context of North American AI data centers facing power supply challenges [5] - However, uncertainties in overseas trade policies, such as the U.S. "Inflation Reduction Act" and the EU's "Net Zero Industry Act," may pose new challenges for Chinese companies in their global expansion efforts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of policy, fundamentals, and capital flow is expected to create a positive synergy that will drive the sector to continue its upward trend [1][2]. Policy Perspective - The "anti-involution" policy and the "14th Five-Year Plan" are providing ongoing support for the industry. The "anti-involution" policy aims to combat vicious price wars and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which will systematically improve the competitive environment and profit expectations [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets a high-quality development tone for the industry over the next five years, reinforcing the core position of new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with supportive policies expected to continue to emerge [1]. Fundamental Perspective - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and the expectation of quarterly performance recovery are key factors determining the sustainability of the sector's market performance. The photovoltaic and lithium battery industries are seeing gradual improvements in supply-demand structures, with the photovoltaic industry expected to curb price wars and corporate profits projected to rebound by 2025 [1]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from sustained high demand in downstream sectors, leading to a quarterly performance recovery for related companies in the new energy supply chain starting from the second half of this year [1]. Capital Flow Perspective - Currently, institutional holdings in the new energy sector are relatively low, indicating potential for incremental capital inflow. The capital flow acts as an amplifier for market performance, and with the improvement in fundamentals and favorable policies, institutional interest is expected to rise [2]. - Passive capital has already begun to flow significantly into the sector, and as performance gradually materializes, more actively managed funds are likely to increase their allocations. New energy, as a long-term investment track with high certainty, is naturally attractive to long-term funds such as pension and insurance funds, suggesting a potential influx of capital into the sector [2]. - For ordinary investors, index-based investments are recommended as a more stable option, with various ETFs available to share in the industry's growth dividends [2].