Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Monitor maintenance and production suspension [1] Core Viewpoints - The US May ISM manufacturing index contracted for three consecutive months, with the import indicator hitting a 16-year low; the Eurozone May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, with the slowdown in contraction and output growing for the third consecutive month, showing signs of recovery [3] - Aluminum trend strength: 0; Alumina trend strength: 0 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,070, down 130 from the previous trading day; the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract was 2,449, down 2; the trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 171,091, up 2,768; the open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 195,664, down 12,236 [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,962, down 2; the trading volume of the SHFE alumina main contract was 539,959, down 258,688; the open interest of the SHFE alumina main contract was 320,269, down 32,720 [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 51,100 tons, down 700 tons; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 372,500 tons, down 2,600 tons [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,300, up 4; the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 393 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Cost and Profit - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,086.81, down 90; the spot import profit and loss of aluminum was -990.62, unchanged; the 3M import profit and loss of aluminum was -1,098.66, unchanged [1] - **Alumina**: The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 366, unchanged [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the futures market continues to decline. For polysilicon, the recommended strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2507) has a closing price of 7,160 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, 755 yuan compared to T - 5, and 1,620 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume is 456,239 lots, down 83,444 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 208,497 lots, down 15,649 lots from T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2507) has a closing price of 35,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan compared to T - 1, and a decrease of 490 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume is 150,575 lots, an increase of 5,236 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 77,400 lots, down 871 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract for industrial silicon is -20 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short spread is 46.3 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the spread is 1795.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot premium of industrial silicon (against different grades) shows various changes, while the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) is -895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit**: - The price of industrial silicon in different regions (e.g., East China's oxygen - passing Si5530 at 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan's Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton) and polysilicon (N - type recycled material at 36500 yuan/ton) has different trends. - The profit of silicon plants (e.g., Xinjiang's new standard 553 at -4108 yuan/ton, Yunnan's new standard 553 at -7369 yuan/ton) and polysilicon enterprises (-4.9 yuan/kg) also shows different changes [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 23.8 million tons, and industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 82.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 31.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons compared to T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, Xinjiang's silicon ore is 400 yuan/ton, and its price has decreased by 20 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry Chain**: - The prices of products in the polysilicon photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also show different degrees of decline. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.94 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.24 yuan compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Prices and Profits in Other Related Industries**: - In the organic silicon industry, the price of DMC is 11450 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is -135 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy industry, the price of ADC12 is 20200 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is -90 yuan/ton [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation 2×660MW ultra - supercritical unit has completed the blow - pipe work on May 4, 2025, and successfully carried out the first impulse on May 27, 2025, and is now capable of generating electricity. The 2 unit is under construction, and after the two units are put into operation, the annual power generation will be nearly 7.5 billion kWh [2][4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-3） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 焦煤： 1、基本面：产区煤矿开工节奏基本稳定，但下游采购积极性明显下降，采煤需求持续疲软，坑口销售 情况较为冷淡，部分矿点焦煤库存小幅累积。而焦煤线上竞拍情绪继续走低，现货价格承压下跌，且部 分煤种报价下调后成交依旧欠佳，市场预期较为悲观；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1000，基差2474；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存798.8万吨，港口库存301.6万吨，独立焦企库存738万吨，总样本库存1838.4万吨， 较上周减少11.5万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第二轮提降落地执行，市场悲观情绪增浓，焦企利润受到挤压，对 ...

易盛农期综指上周偏弱震荡，截至上周五，该指数报收于1156.17点。 花生方面，区间偏强震荡。随着现货贸易流定价重心从油料转向商品米，上周花生现货行情连续第二周 走强。现货价格短期强势原因在于：第一，油厂本产季收购量已达年度规模，季节性让出定价话语权； 第二，市场调研反馈产地余货及冷库库存均少于上年，随着产地花生入冷库，定价权移交至产地持货 商；第三，本产季花生现货冬春季窄幅震荡，购销长期乏力，贸易商低价惜售情绪浓厚。长期来看，花 生种植面积在各产区分化，整体面积趋势尚未明确，且进口到港补充大概率后延至三四季度，主力合约 2510仍缺乏明确指引。 综上所述，易盛农期综指短期将在当前震荡区间内偏强运行。 棉花方面，窄幅震荡。当前内外棉价走势分化，呈现外弱内强格局。但国内棉花种植仍呈扩产趋势，在 中长期供应偏宽松预期下，国内棉价上方仍面临较大的套保压力，后期走势或趋弱。 （文章来源：期货日报） 白糖方面，偏弱震荡。短期来看，原糖在触及17美分/磅后触发销区国家点价需求，但随后受制于巴西 压榨高峰放量和泰国套保空单的压力。后期市场核心逻辑转向巴西压榨高峰期数据，需观察干旱对巴西 甘蔗单产的具体影响。国内方面，产销衔 ...

Group 1 - Shanghai International Reinsurance Center is accelerating its construction to enrich international financial products, allowing foreign traders to directly participate in trading six internationalized futures products including crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [1] - Eramet, a French mining company, is committed to maintaining 10,460 local jobs in Gabon despite the government's announcement to ban the export of manganese ore starting in 2029 [1] - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 83.87%, a capacity utilization rate of 90.69%, and a profit rate of 58.87%, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.4191 million tons [1] - As of May 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season reached 99.8%, slightly up from 99.5% the previous week and higher than 98.8% in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 1, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is at 67%, below the market expectation of 68%, with a planting rate of 84% [2] - U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the week ending May 29 was 268,343 tons, an increase from the previous week's revised figure of 200,022 tons, with shipments to China totaling 64,998 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons to 2 million tons as of the end of March, a 38% decline year-on-year, while total palm oil production increased by 7% to 4.8 million tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile range between 13080 - 13415 yuan/ton due to factors such as the approaching US Treasury bond maturity in June, changes in CFTC positions, and uncertainty over tariff policies [1]. - PTA is likely to face pressure as macro - level benefits are digested, downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase [3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range, with potential price corrections after a rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range, with prices being strong in the near term and weak in the long term due to the approaching off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as the new sugar - cane season in Brazil and domestic supply - demand dynamics [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level in a volatile range due to low inventory, although the market is currently in a state of stable demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The spot price of lint cotton is relatively stable, with the 3128B index at 14578 yuan/ton, and the C32S yarn price index at 20470 yuan/ton. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5892 yuan/ton, and the basis is 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of May 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11537 (- 23) sheets, including 11157 (- 52) registered warehouse receipts and 380 (+ 29) valid forecasts [9]. - India has raised the minimum support price (MSP) for seed cotton in the 2025/26 season, with an 8.3% increase for medium - length cotton, 7.8% for longer - length cotton, and 7.9% for S - 6 cotton [9]. - In March 2025, US wholesalers' sales of clothing and fabrics increased by 3.49% year - on - year, inventory decreased by 6.46% year - on - year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased to 2.06 [9]. PTA - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 400.19 yuan/ton, up 2.38% month - on - month and down 2.33% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 22, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, up 1.49% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [8]. - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped by 140 to 4855 yuan/ton. The polyester production cut affected market sentiment, and the spot basis weakened and then recovered [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 55.38%, down 5.66% month - on - month. The production decreased by 9.28% week - on - week [14]. - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports have remained low, while demand has maintained a high operating rate [3]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 16.14 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, down 2.91% month - on - month [11]. - The cost of raw materials has increased, and supply has decreased, pushing up short - fiber prices. However, downstream demand remains weak, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [4]. Sugar - Forecasts suggest that in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region, sugar production may decline by 11.5% to 229 tons, and ethanol production may decline by 7.9% to 1.85 billion liters [14]. - Ukraine has completed the beet sowing for the 2025/26 season, with a total sown area of 217,100 hectares [14]. - Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease compared to the same period last year [14]. Apple - As of May 28, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 1.5196 million tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons week - on - week [14]. - The prices of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are stable, with different price ranges for different grades [5][14][15].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 库存压力仍较大，工业硅盘面弱势探底 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡探底，主力合约2507开于7320元/吨，最后收于7215元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-135）元/吨，变化（-1.84）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓224146手，2025-05-29仓单总数为63868手，较 前一日变化-418手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格弱稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9300 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天 津、新疆、上海、西北地区硅价也部分走低。四川地区今日硅价暂稳。 97硅今日价格同样走低。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11400-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，随着西北单体企业本周装置结束检 修恢复生产，行业单体企业开工率有所上升，但端午节后，开工预计将受部分单体企业检修周期到来继续下降。 SMM统计5月29日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, and downstream demand is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to use sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell calls [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 17.34 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,075 lots, an increase of 4,378 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 45,996 lots, a decrease of 3,025 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,705 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,700 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some rigid demand transactions occurred with suppliers offering discounts of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 40 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and some suppliers offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, suppliers offered premiums of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead or discounts of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. The lead price was consolidating, and due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream inventory - building intention was low, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] Inventory - On May 29, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 49,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 29, the LME lead inventory was 288,550 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term arrival pressure of methanol in ports remains high, port inventories continue to rise this week, and port basis is weak. Inland coal - fired methanol production is still at a high level, inland factory inventories continue to increase, and the decline in acetic acid and traditional downstream operations significantly drags down methanol demand. Methanol production profit is still on the high side [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong against the main futures contract, and also shows the spreads between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [5][6][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][23][24] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - Data shows methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [5][31][32] 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][46][49]