1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the BMD crude palm oil futures may gradually recover and rise after the release of risks following the MPOB report and as India returns to the market next month. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200. - Soybean oil: The uncertainty of biodiesel policies and short - term soybean export data affect the CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestically, the increase in soybean oil production and weak downstream demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the poor oil - mill profit and weak demand for soybean meal support the price. The spot basis quotation will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry The market supply is recovering, and the demand support is limited. Although there are sporadic epidemics in the Northeast, large - scale outbreaks are unlikely. The pig price is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. 2.3 Meal Industry The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the South American new - crop soybean planting progress is good. Domestically, the soybean inventory is high, and the meal supply is loose. The meal price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. 2.4 Corn Industry The corn price in the Northeast is strong due to limited logistics and storage support, while the price in North China is affected by the increase in supply. The demand side has different inventory replenishment intentions. The short - term supply - demand mismatch makes the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. 2.5 Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures are rising. Although the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region is expected to increase in the first half of November, the early end of the harvest and lower ethanol inventory support the price. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [13][14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures are rising due to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report and a weaker dollar. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the strong basis and downstream demand support the price. The cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry The current egg price is below the feed cost line, and the inventory in production and circulation links has decreased. It is expected that the egg price will have limited downward space and will oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to the support at the previous low [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton (up 0.24% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% from the previous day), and the basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton (down 0.71% from the previous day), the futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% from the previous day). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 8932.4 yuan/ton (down 1.08% from the previous day), and the盘面 import profit was - 543 yuan/ton (down 5.32% from the previous day) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On November 25, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10190 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of OI601 was 9818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the basis was - 9.71% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract price of live pigs was 11995 yuan/ton (up 0.59% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton (down 10.48% from the previous day), and the main contract position decreased by 4.44% [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price in Henan dropping by 150 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.04%, the white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37%, and the外购 breeding profit decreased by 14.10% [4]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton (up 0.07% from the previous day), and the basis was - 18.18%. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian February shipments increased by 333.3% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton (up 0.82% from the previous day), the futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the basis was 583.33%. The盘面 import profit for Canadian January shipments increased by 9.54% [6]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin was 3940 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4108 yuan/ton (down 1.01% from the previous day), and the basis was 20% [6]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 was 2242 yuan/ton (up 0.99% from the previous day), the basis was - 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread was 52.27%, the import profit increased by 8.49%, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 7.46% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 was 2556 yuan/ton (up 0.83% from the previous day), the basis decreased by 84%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.13%, and the starch - corn 01盘面 spread decreased by 0.32%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 1000% [9]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The sugar 2601 futures price was 5387 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread increased by 21.57%, and the main contract position decreased by 2.73% [13]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.59%, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.62% [13]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the sales increased by 9.17%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The cotton 2605 futures price was 13580 yuan/ton (up 0.37% from the previous day), the cotton 2601 futures price was 13645 yuan/ton (up 0.44% from the previous day), the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the main contract position increased by 0.09% [15]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.26%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 0.18% [15]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory increased by 24.2%, the import volume decreased by 10%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 25%, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures indicators**: The egg 12 - contract price was 2950 yuan/500KG (down 1.42% from the previous day), the egg 01 - contract price was 3210 yuan/500KG (down 0.25% from the previous day), and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 13.08% [18]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.11%, the egg - chick price decreased by 3.57%, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.96%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%. The breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The production - link inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.22% [18].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple futures price has slightly increased, but the warehouse - based trading in the production areas is generally weak. The new - season late Fuji apple's storage volume is more than 10% lower than last year, and the demand side is under pressure. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer [1][2][3] - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed down. The acquisition progress and prices vary among different production areas. The supply in the sales areas is limited or sufficient, and the new - product prices vary greatly. The market is in a critical transition period, with high inventory pressure and pessimistic future expectations. The future focus will be on the actual consumption situation [5][6][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,491 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9,175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.54% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is slow, and the overall shipment is average. The outbound speed in the western production areas has slowed down slightly, while the Shandong production area has sporadic outbound shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of restocking, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. The acquisition progress varies by region. The sales areas have limited or sufficient supply, and the new - product prices vary due to quality and cost [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price of apples rose slightly yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in the production areas was generally weak. The new - season late Fuji's storage work was basically completed last week, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than last year. The consumer demand is mainly on - demand procurement, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price of red dates fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition progress and prices vary among production areas, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The new - product prices in the sales areas vary greatly, and the market is in a critical period of transition. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [8] Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer, and be cautious when chasing high prices [4] Red dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production areas, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price; otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have some room to fall [9]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-26 原油端延续弱势，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、11月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3068元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨36元/吨，涨幅 1.19%；持仓153792手，环比下跌7249手，成交160056手，环比减少66769手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2990—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日西北、山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华北地区沥青现货价格小幅反弹，其余地区 沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格，带动区域沥青现货价格下跌。从基本面来看，当前供 需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油， 沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪 相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解， ...

| | | | | | | | EATH FANTER FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 6000 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The quotes of Maersk in the second week of December decreased compared to the previous week, and the estimated value of the December contract settlement price was revised downwards [1]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference, and the settlement time of the February contract has been determined. The settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at par with the December contract valuation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be price increases announced at the end of November and mid - December [4]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the reopening of the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal reopens, it will increase the effective supply of shipping capacity and further suppress freight rates [5]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Price - As of November 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures was 77,333.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 64,306.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1453.50, 1126.40, 1338.00, 1464.00, 1108.00, and 1650.00 respectively [5]. 3.2 Spot Price - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1367 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West Coast route) price was 1645 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East Coast) price was 2384 US dollars/FEU. On November 24, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West Coast) was 1107.85 points [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [6]. - In November, the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks was 343,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 48/49 were 336,200/351,300 TEU respectively. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50/51/52/53 were 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU respectively. In January, the monthly average weekly capacity was 310,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2/3/4/5 were 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU respectively. There was 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk's spokesperson said that the Suez Canal Authority's previous statement about resuming navigation in December was false, and the company has not determined when it will resume partial voyages through the Suez Canal [3]. - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal reopening in 2026 is relatively high. Hapag - Lloyd said that if the Suez Canal resumes navigation, it will probably be after the Spring Festival in 2026 [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No relevant information provided in the content that can be specifically summarized for this part.

化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - During the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a fluctuating trend after a decline. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has slightly decreased, and the spot discount has slightly fallen. The social inventory rarely shows a downward trend on Monday, and the future destocking trend is worth looking forward to. The absolute inventory value remains low, which is unlikely to have a negative impact on the price. There is optimism about future consumption. Although there are differences in the US interest - rate cut policy, the large cycle of interest - rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not been reflected yet. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected destocking of social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - In the spot market of alumina, there are sporadic transactions, and the trading activity has declined compared with the previous period. There are few bullish factors in the fundamental aspect. The bauxite price is firm. Domestic mines are facing short - term environmental protection pressure, while the supply of imported mines is starting to increase, and the sentiment towards the price is starting to weaken. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without triggering large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. It is expected that the procurement demand will decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the price of bauxite has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, so the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,330 yuan/ton, and the change of the spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is - 20 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The change of the aluminum spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is 5 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,415 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,525 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 157,390 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 271,763 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots, as counted by SMM, was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, with a change of - 2,225 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,736 yuan/ton, closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change amplitude of - 0.15%. The highest price reached 2,741 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 165,823 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 390,129 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 25, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina; bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [8]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply will increase, especially in December with concentrated slaughter from散户 and secondary fattening. The supply-demand situation remains loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth despite ongoing demand increase [2] - For the egg market, current consumption is in a weak state. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.45 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Wholesale market: On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.24 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.28 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Future supply will increase, and the supply - demand situation will remain loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3202 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan or 0.25% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Inventory: On November 25, the national production - link inventory was 1.06 days, down 0.10 days or 8.62%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.03 days or 2.22% [3] Market Analysis - Consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees stay at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelting are both low, resulting in limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable without a strong recovery signal. It is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate, roughly in the range of 17,000 - 17,700 RMB/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 0.00 RMB/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,075 RMB/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 9,950 RMB/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,075 RMB/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,300 RMB/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 RMB/ton and closed at 17,045 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,496 lots, an increase of 2,076 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 52,466 lots, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous trading day. During the day, the price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 17,130 RMB/ton and a minimum of 17,010 RMB/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,065 RMB/ton and closed at 17,055 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. As reported by SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 75 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly sold through long - term contracts, with few spot quotes. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 80 - 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. As the lead price declined, the discount in traders' quotes gradually narrowed, and large - discount goods were traded. Lead smelters in Hunan generally held firm on prices. Branded lead was quoted at a premium of 50 RMB/ton to the SMM 1 lead, with some transactions from rigid - demand buyers. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. Traders in Yunnan quoted at a discount of 250 - 200 RMB/ton to the average SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales. With the weak and fluctuating lead price, downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and their willingness to stock up at low prices was poor. The market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and overall spot trading was light [2] Inventory - On November 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 25, the LME lead inventory was 264,575 tons, an increase of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy Overall Strategy - The overall strategy for the lead market is "Neutral" due to the weak supply - demand situation [4] Option Strategy - The option strategy recommended is to sell a wide strangle [5]