林荣雄策略：5 月科技第二波：初现端倪 20250506 摘要 • 五一期间全球股市普遍上涨，风险偏好上升，费城半导体指数和中国金融 指数均上涨，伦铜和布油也呈现上涨态势，但人民币汇率信号诡异，需进 一步评估。新台币升值或与东亚国家缓解与美贸易矛盾有关。 • 政治局会议后，中美关税博弈降温，美方释放谈判信号，市场预期关税谈 判旨在避免全球经济衰退，推动风险资产定价上升。尽管谈判过程漫长， 但双方愿意谈判对风险资产定价提供了重要窗口期。 • 国内二季度基本面存在环比走弱压力，4 月 PMI 和 EPMI 数据不理想，预 计经济环比走弱幅度不小。PMI 新出口订单分项降至 44.7%，超过 2018 年关税战最低水平，对国内基本面和政策形成压力，不认为有大级别上涨 行情。 • 大盘指数在黄金坑后突破 3,300 点，接近出坑，但只能做震荡式判断。二 次探底可能性较低，对应强预期弱现实状态。A 股高低切换指数接近区间 下沿，表明此前高位调整基本结束，新一轮主线正在酝酿，科技尤其是 AI 科技科创可能性较大。 Q&A 今年科技板块的走势如何？未来是否有回升的可能？ 今年整体对科技板块的节奏判断较为准确。从 2 月中旬 ...

有记者提问，据报道，中方已同欧洲议会相互取消交往限制，可否证实？ 林剑表示，过去几年，中欧立法机构交往，因为众所周知的原因出现了一些波折。当前形势下，双方都认为中欧加强对话合作十分重要。 经双方商定，中方和欧洲议会决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制，我们相信并期待随着中欧全面恢复立法机构的交往，双方的交流和理解将更加深入，这将为中 欧关系持续健康稳定发展注入新动力。 法新社记者提问，美国总统特朗普在近期的采访中称，他不会为了和中国举行谈判而取消对华的关税。请问，目前双方在进行谈判的意愿上有多接近？ 林剑回应，这场关税战是美方挑起的，中方的态度是一贯的，也是明确的——打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 5月6日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 林剑强调，美方近期不断表示，希望同中方进行谈判。关税战、贸易战没有赢家。如果美方真想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁、施压，在平等、尊重、 互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 综合自央 ...

截至2025年5月6日 10:27，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.51元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月30日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.33%，成交4435.83万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交17.48亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达133.53亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.27亿份，创近1月新高。 消息面上，4月制造业PMI降至49.0%，为2021年以来四月份的第二低。4月制造业PMI容易季节性回落，今年4月制造业PMI环比降幅明显好于2022年4月及 2020年2月，反映美国高关税对中国经济的影响程度可能明显好于疫情。 机构认为，未来债市需要关注中美关税谈判的进展。倘若未来半年中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内10Y国债收益率高点仍可能到1.9%，2025年经济 仍有望企稳。由于关税谈判艰难，短期或难谈成，我们预计债市二季度震荡。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易。 流动性方面，国债ETF ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、中美谈判有重要进展? 如何影响A股、港股和美股? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 2、美国关税战本周有结果? 如何影响大类资产? 3、巴菲特如何看待美股波动、科技颠覆和美国国运? 1、中美谈判有重要进展? 如何影响A股、港股和美股? 这个五一长假，我们看到金融市场出现了几个异常变化。一起来梳理一下。 首先，新兴市场国家的货币出现了大幅升值。其中，人民币升值了大约1%，韩元升值了3%，而中国台 湾地区的新台币升值幅度更大，达到了5%。汇率是一个非常敏感的指标，那么这背后反映出的是什么 呢？其实就两个字——关税。 在五一期间，关于关税的谈判，美国和其他国家以及中国都出现了一些转机。我们说，与中国相关的谈 判其实得到了官方的间接认证。我们来看一下商务部这两天的发言。在答记者问时，商务部谈到美国方 面高层已经多次表态，愿意就关税问题与中国方面进行谈判。所以中国方面正在评估。这两个字其实透 露出了很多含义。现在并不是铁板一块拒之门外，而是仍有契机。 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and China have not engaged in any negotiations regarding tariffs, contradicting claims from the Trump administration that talks were ongoing [1][3][30] Group 1: U.S. Position and Actions - The Trump administration has repeatedly claimed to be in negotiations with China, but these assertions have been firmly denied by Chinese officials [3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's admission of uncertainty regarding Trump's claims of negotiations indicates a lack of actual dialogue [5] - The U.S. is attempting to create a false narrative of negotiations to stabilize market sentiment and project a psychological advantage over China [5][8] Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China maintains a clear stance: it is open to negotiations but insists that any discussions must be based on equality and respect [8][18] - Chinese officials have actively countered U.S. claims, emphasizing that the trade conflict was initiated by the U.S. and that they are prepared to respond firmly [18][20] - China's strategic measures include imposing tariffs on U.S. goods and controlling exports of rare earth materials, which are critical for U.S. military and high-tech industries [24][26] Group 3: Economic and Political Context - The U.S. economy is showing signs of distress, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, raising questions about the effectiveness of the tariff strategy [8][10] - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant losses, with a drop of approximately $6.6 trillion in market value following the announcement of tariff policies [10] - Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to a record low of 39%, reflecting growing domestic dissatisfaction with his administration's handling of the trade conflict [10][13] Group 4: Global Implications and Future Outlook - The trade conflict has led to a backlash against U.S. unilateralism, with allies like the EU and Japan expressing discontent [14][18] - The ongoing tariff war is not just a trade issue but a reflection of broader geopolitical shifts, with the U.S. struggling to adapt to a multipolar world [28] - China's ability to diversify its export markets and maintain a stronghold on critical resources positions it favorably in the ongoing trade dispute [20][26]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.54, down 5.09 bp; DR007 closed at 1.78, up 3.35 bp; GC001 closed at 1.61, down 28.50 bp; GC007 closed at 1.68, down 17.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.75, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.60, unchanged; 1 - year treasury closed at 1.46, down 0.50 bp; 5 - year treasury closed at 1.51, down 2.00 bp; 10 - year treasury closed at 1.62, down 2.35 bp; 10 - year US treasury closed at 4.23, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net investment of 120 billion yuan [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Options - The CSI 300 fell 0.17% to 3775.1; the SSE 50 fell 0.22% to 2645.5; the CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5604.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.45% to 5903.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - The central political bureau meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies for specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the better - than - expected Q1 economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation for stock index futures is to hold a light position and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different levels of premium and discount rates for different delivery months [7]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.54 with a -5.09bp change, DR007 at 1.78 with a 3.35bp change, GC001 at 1.61 with a -28.50bp change, GC007 at 1.68 with a -17.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.75 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.46 with a -0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a -2.00bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.62 with a -2.35bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.23 with a -6.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily injection of 120 billion yuan after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the rest postponed to the first trading day after the May Day holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", but the urgency of short - term cuts has decreased considering the first - quarter economic data and tariff uncertainties [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3775, down 0.17%; the SSE 50 at 2646, down 0.22%; the CSI 500 at 5604.9, up 0.12%; and the CSI 1000 at 5903.4, up 0.45%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with beauty care, plastics products, pesticides and veterinary drugs, auto parts, chemical products, shipbuilding, and decoration sectors leading the gains, while the power, insurance, and shipping port sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Options Strategy - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the first - quarter economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to high overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Basis - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts is 9.83%, 9.35%, 7.10%, and 5.35% respectively; the IH basis is 5.29%, 6.45%, 5.38%, and 3.66% respectively; the IC basis is 11.92%, 14.74%, 11.12%, and 9.16% respectively; and the IM basis is 12.87%, 15.43%, 12.68%, and 11.23% respectively [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move in a range, while government bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore is expected to weaken slightly, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7]. - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move sideways, while soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][20]. - Cotton spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen slightly, and PTA is expected to weaken slightly [1][31]. - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline, and oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][32]. Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, supply and demand dynamics, and international trade relations [1][5]. - Tariff policies and trade frictions have a significant impact on the market, and investors need to pay attention to the development of these issues [5][7]. - The supply and demand situation of each product is different, and investors need to analyze the specific situation of each product to make investment decisions [7][12]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures are expected to move in a range due to the low probability of major positive policies before the holiday and the need for defensive strategies [5]. - Government bonds are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the low - volatility market may continue until clear policy signals or economic data are released [5]. Black building materials - Rebar is expected to move sideways. Although the current supply - demand situation is acceptable, the impact of tariffs on exports and the seasonal decline in demand may lead to weak market expectations. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs to be observed [7]. - Iron ore is expected to weaken slightly. The increase in iron - water production has led to expectations of a peak and decline, and concerns about the sustainability of exports. The supply and demand are both strong, but it is about to enter the traditional off - season [7]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways. The coking coal market may maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the coke market may maintain a tight supply - demand balance. The focus is on the release of terminal demand and the change of inventory [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to move in a high - level range. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is supported by the peak season. However, the upward space is limited by the impact of the trade war on the global economy [12]. - Aluminum is recommended for observation. The supply of the mine end is improving, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price may continue to rebound, but the overall situation needs to be further observed [14]. - Nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies. The supply is excessive, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The focus is on the impact of Indonesian policies and downstream demand [15]. - Tin is recommended for trading within a range. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price may fluctuate greatly [17]. - Gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range. The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and interest - rate expectations. The price is expected to be in an adjustment state [18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term price is affected by macro factors and export and maintenance conditions [20]. - Caustic soda is expected to move sideways. The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. The focus is on inventory changes and export conditions [21]. - Rubber is expected to move sideways. The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The price is affected by factors such as weather, inventory, and demand [22]. - Urea is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is affected by factors such as production progress and inventory [24]. - Methanol is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and port supply [26]. - Plastic is expected to move sideways. The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by factors such as new capacity, demand, and inventory [28]. - Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure until sufficient maintenance occurs [28]. Cotton spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply. The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to observe in the near future [30]. - Apples are expected to strengthen slightly. The inventory is low, and the demand is good. The focus is on the fruit - setting situation [30]. - PTA is expected to weaken slightly. The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are not good. The price is under pressure [31]. Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [32]. - Eggs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are both increasing, and the risk of a decline after the May Day holiday needs to be guarded against. The long - term supply pressure is increasing [34]. - Corn is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes [35]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline in the short term and rise in the long term. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term cost is increasing and the supply is tightening [37]. - Oils and fats are expected to move sideways. The short - term price has certain upward momentum, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [38].