行业 PTA 日报 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

5月12日盘中，PTA期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至4712.00元。截止发稿，PTA主力合约 报4686.00元，涨幅2.58%。 PTA期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国信期货 PTA短期主要跟随成本波动 新世纪期货 短期PTA供需去库，主要受原料价格波动影响 东海期货 短期PTA偏强震荡，长期走高空间有限 国信期货：PTA短期主要跟随成本波动 节后织造开工回升，聚酯负荷维持高位，下游原料刚需较好，贸易战消息释放利好，关注后续谈判进 展。当前PTA装置检修较多，市场供应显著缩减，社会库存加速去化，基差走势偏强。PXN裂解低位修 复，但估值水平仍然偏低，绝对价格支撑较强，成本波动受原油影响较大。PTA短期主要跟随成本波 动，关注油价走势，建议逢低短多、91正套。 新世纪期货：短期PTA供需去库，主要受原料价格波动影响 东海期货：短期PTA偏强震荡，长期走高空间有限 由于5月前后终端投机性囤库极为积极，下游库存压力大幅下降，开工持续走高至94%以上，下游需求 短期存续。PTA自身检修仍然偏高，供减需增下基差及盘面持续上行。但后期加工费走高或压低检修 量，以及 ...

长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需去库，短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修，PTA开工下降，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，总体供需好于前一周，价格反弹。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格低位反弹，期初受五一期间国际油价下行影响，节后价格低开；而后随着宏观面逐步 转好，逢低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势，期现价格开始反弹，但由于港口 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 受业务布局及渠道影响，25Q1中国地区表现较弱 25Q1中国地区收入及正常化EBITDA内生同比-12.7%/-17.1%；销量内生同比-9.2%，每百升收入内生同 比-3.9%。受到业务布局和即饮渠道的表现持续疲弱、以及库存管理措施的影响，25Q1中国地区销量同比 下降；由于基数较高，加上区域和渠道组合不利的影响，收入亦同比减少。受营收同比下降及营运去杠杆 化影响，25Q1中国地区正常化EBITDA同比下降。公司专注非即饮渠道，以带动高端化，该渠道25Q1带来 的销量和收入贡献均取得同比增长。公司加强与年轻消费者的互动，25Q1零糖哈尔滨冰极纯生销量同比 +70%。25H1中国市场仍处于去库存阶段，销量压力预计仍较大，随着库存去化逐步完成，25H2渠道结构 有望回归正常。 风险提示： 渠道掌控力减弱；市场竞争加剧；原材料上涨超预期。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成 ...

对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | PX主力收盘 | PTA主力收盘 | MEG主力收盘 | PF主力收盘 | SC主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-08 | 6404 | 4546 | 4222 | 6290 | 3406 | | 2025-05-07 | 6288 | 4466 | 4199 | 6200 | 3399 | | 2025-05-06 | 6130 | 4362 | 4130 | 6138 | 3328 | | 2025-04-30 | 6212 | 4434 | 4155 | 6160 | 3394 | | 2025-04-29 | 6206 | 4440 | 4187 | 6184 | 3456 | | 日度变化 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | | 月 差 | PX（9-1） | PTA(6-9) | MEG（9-1） | PF(7-8) | PX-EB09 | | 2025-05-08 | 70 | 96 | -7 | 30 | -295 | | 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that local governments are accelerating the issuance of special bonds directed towards the real estate sector, with a notable increase in the proportion of these bonds allocated for land reserve projects [1][3][6] - In April, the total amount of special bonds issued by local governments reached 176.3 billion yuan, with 71.7 billion yuan (40%) allocated to real estate-related fields, marking an 8 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][6] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds in April amounted to 21 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative total of 51.7 billion yuan for the year, indicating a significant focus on land acquisition and development [2][6] Group 2 - The provinces of Hunan, Shandong, and Xiamen have notably increased their issuance of real estate special bonds, collectively accounting for 74% of the new bonds in this sector in April [8][11] - Among the 336 billion yuan of special bonds primarily directed towards real estate in April, 62% was allocated for land reserves, highlighting the emphasis on land acquisition [11][14] - The recovery of idle land is seen as a crucial driver for stabilizing the real estate market, with the potential to significantly impact the overall market if a portion of the total land reserve area can be activated [14]

Group 1 - In April, only one subsidized housing project at 3 Muk Lee Street (1,800 units) received a new pre-sale consent, while there were no new applications for private residential projects, marking a return after five months [1] - A total of five projects were approved for pre-sale in April, including the popular Sierra Sea Phase 1 (781 units) and the newly priced Sierra Sea Phase 1B (794 units), along with Kai Tak Flower Sea Phase 2 (416 units), Discovery Bay project (320 units), and 7 Hospital Road, Mid-Levels (62 units), totaling 2,373 units [1][2] - The number of approved but unsold private residential units rose to 16,290 units, a month-on-month increase of approximately 10.8% [2] Group 2 - The cumulative inventory of unsold units reached approximately 22,173 units by the end of April, showing a month-on-month decrease of about 1.4% [2] - The total number of units available for sale, including the approved but unsold units, increased from nearly 37,200 units in March to about 38,500 units in April, reflecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 3.4% [2] - The number of pending pre-sale units decreased by about 8.1% month-on-month to 6,517 units, the lowest level since January 2020 [2]

【广发机械】卡特一季报总结：量价双杀利润下滑明显，经销商去库进入尾声+订单高增 根据卡特彼勒一季报，25Q1实现收入142亿美元，同比-10%；净利润20亿美元，同比-30%；毛利率为37%，同比- 1.8pct；净利率为14%，同比-4pct。 （1）#价格相较于销量有韧性。 积压订单同比增加50亿美元，环比大幅提升。 （3）#北美工程机械收入下降最为明显。 25Q1工程机械同比-19%、矿机同比-10%、能源及交通业务分别-2%；其中工程机械分区域看，比美收入同比- 24%、拉美同比-15%、欧洲非洲同比-13%、亚太同比-12%. （4）#工程机械终端零售数据出现增长。 25Q1全球同比+3%，首次转正；其中拉美同比+16%，欧洲非洲同比+4%、北美同比+1%、亚太同比-3%。 （5）#25Q2及全年展望。 25Q2预计收入同比持平，能源&运输业的增长与工程机械&矿机的下滑相对冲，关税影响成本2.5-3e美元（3%左 右），利润受关税影响略降；25全年考虑关税影响收入略降，不考虑关税收入持平（相较于年初更乐观）。 公司收入同比下滑15.5亿美元，其中销量下滑贡献72%，价格下降贡献16% （2）#经销商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is weak, with expectations for a continued decline in prices and demand due to inventory pressures and reduced downstream procurement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 7, polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 35,655.0 yuan, with a current price of 35,700.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.65% [1]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is around 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory estimated at nearly 500,000 tons, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is in a capacity reduction cycle, with production cuts across various segments, leading to a slight recovery in March production to 96,000 tons, but overall price support remains weak [1]. - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization, but the focus remains on depleting polysilicon inventory, with new orders being limited [1]. - The demand side is negatively impacted by the end of the photovoltaic rush, with expected declines in silicon wafer production in May and June [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The N-type silicon material price has dropped nearly 4%, and the overall market is expected to see further price declines due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2]. - The average cash cost for mainstream silicon material manufacturers is around 35,000-36,000 yuan per ton, which may provide some support for prices in the near term [2]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a weak state, with potential short-term rebounds as the market approaches delivery pricing in mid to late May [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high on May 7, driven by policy catalysts, with the real estate sector leading the gains [1] - The real estate ETF fund (515060) saw an increase of over 3% in early trading, with stocks like Debi Group (300947), Sanxiang Impression (000863), and Tianbao Infrastructure (000965) hitting the daily limit [1] - The National News Office reported that the balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan in Q1, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [1] Group 2 - The government plans to introduce a series of financing systems to support the new model of real estate development, aiming to stabilize the market [1] - A reduction of 0.25 percentage points in personal housing provident fund loan interest rates is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually [1] - Open-source securities suggest that the "de-inventory" strategy is primarily due to the reversal of supply-demand relationships and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing [1][2]