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澳洲联储主席Bullock:仍预计核心通胀率将缓慢降至2.5%。全球经济仍面临不确定性和不可预测性。月度数据表明核心CPI可能没有达到预期。寻求数据支持核心通胀预期。鉴于CPI大幅回落,失业率仅小幅上升的情形令人震惊。委员会寻求审慎、渐进的宽松路径。澳洲联储加息幅度小于其他央行,可能不需要那么多降息。劳动力市场仍然吃紧,到年底可能会有所缓解。领先指标并未表明失业率大幅上升。
news flash· 2025-07-24 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]
7月23日电,新加坡6月份CPI同比增长0.8%,预估0.9%;6月份核心CPI同比增长0.6%,预估0.7%。
news flash· 2025-07-23 05:02
Group 1 - Singapore's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in June, slightly below the forecast of 0.9% [1] - The core CPI for June rose by 0.6% year-on-year, also below the expected increase of 0.7% [1]
日本央行副行长内田真一:预计对更长期价格的看法将是逐渐上涨。核心CPI可能在2026财年的某个时候跌破2%。
news flash· 2025-07-23 01:54
核心CPI可能在2026财年的某个时候跌破2%。 日本央行副行长内田真一:预计对更长期价格的看法将是逐渐上涨。 ...
银河证券每日晨报-20250721
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-21 02:24
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery [3] - Looking ahead, while service prices have room for recovery, the momentum may slow down due to various factors including high base effects and early release of durable goods demand [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Components - Service prices have shown a continuous recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, and a cumulative growth rate of 0.4% from January to June [6] - The rental price decline has narrowed, positively impacting the core CPI, as rental demand is closely related to employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates [6][7] - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost service prices, but the pressure on the rental market may increase due to the high number of graduates entering the job market [7] Group 3: Global Economic and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the uncertainty in the Middle East and its potential impact on global supply chains, emphasizing the need for diversification in import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports [14][15] - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East could lead to significant supply risks, particularly for energy and chemical products, affecting downstream manufacturing sectors in China [15][17] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - The AI sector in the U.S. has seen a significant upward trend, with the AI industry rising by 80.19% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the Nasdaq index, which increased by 38.47% in the same period [25] - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low pricing strategies, which is expected to lead to increased user adoption and long-term profitability [26] - The report suggests that the development of AI applications will have transformative effects across various industries, with a notable acceleration in B-end commercialization in the media sector [27]
核心CPI能持续修复吗? | 政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-07-20 08:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].
核心 CPI能持续修复吗?
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-18 11:32
Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]
宏观动态报告:核心CPI能持续修复吗?
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-18 09:45
Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]
上半年四川居民人均可支配收入18779元 同比名义增长5.6%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 04:10
Income Analysis - The per capita disposable income in Sichuan reached 18,779 yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a nominal increase of 5.6% year-on-year and a real increase of 5.8% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - The main sources of income, including wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income, all maintained growth, with nominal increases of 6.4%, 5.3%, and 5.8% respectively [3][4] - Wage income remains the primary support for income growth, accounting for 52.2% of per capita disposable income and contributing 58.5% to the increase [3] Consumption Analysis - Per capita consumption expenditure in Sichuan was 12,208 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a nominal growth of 6.2% and a real growth of 6.4% after price adjustments [4] - Rural residents experienced faster consumption growth compared to urban residents, and service consumption remained active, with all eight categories of consumption showing growth [4] - Per capita service consumption expenditure reached 5,295 yuan, growing by 6.8%, and service consumption accounted for 43.4% of total consumption expenditure [4] Price Trends - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, consistent with national trends, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% [5] - Positive changes in CPI were noted in June, indicating a potential improvement in the weak CPI trend, with the core CPI rising by 0.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in pork prices was attributed to increased supply and seasonal demand fluctuations post-Chinese New Year [5]
美国通胀“发令枪”——美国6月CPI点评
申万宏源研究· 2025-07-17 01:17
Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]
美国通胀“发令枪”——美国6月CPI点评
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-16 12:25
Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]