Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has an optimistic expectation for the liquidity situation, as indicated by the downward trends in certificate of deposit (CD) rates and interest rate swap (IRS) yields [2]. - The liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with minor disturbances to the funds before the Spring Festival, as the MLF is likely to continue to be renewed in excess [5]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries a. Interest Rates - Bank - to - bank interest rates were differentiated. DR007 had an average of 1.44%, up 4BP from the previous week. R007 had an average of 1.51%, up from the previous week. DR001 and R001 had averages of 1.27% and 1.35% respectively. Exchange repurchase rates increased, with the average GC007 at 1.55%. CD rates and IRS yields declined. The 1 - year AAA CD yield was 1.64% at the end of last week, down from the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 IRS average was 1.52%, slightly down from the previous week [2][7]. b. Repurchase Transactions - Repurchase trading volume increased. The pledged repurchase trading volume was between 8.3 - 8.6 trillion yuan last week, and the average R001 trading volume was 76346 billion yuan, up 4094 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance was 12.9 trillion yuan at the end of last week, up from the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks and money market funds decreased, while the borrowing scale of funds and wealth management products increased, and the borrowing scale of securities firms decreased [3]. c. Bill and Exchange Rates - Bill rates decreased. On December 19th, the 6 - month national bill transfer quote was 0.89%, down from the previous week, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased to 7.04 last Friday, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The US 1 - year Treasury yield may show a steeper curve in the future [4]. d. This Week's Focus - This week, there are 8775 billion yuan of open - market funds maturing, including 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF. The LPR in December remained unchanged. US Q3 GDP will be announced on Tuesday, and China's November industrial enterprise profits will be announced on Saturday. Although the tax - payment period has passed, the increase in government bond supply this week may cause some disturbances to the liquidity. The MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose [5].

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，12月19日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了562亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量562亿元，中标量562亿元。同时，以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示，当日1205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放357亿元。当周 净回笼110亿元。 Wind数据显示，12月22日-26日当周央行公开市场将有4575亿元逆回购到期，12月22日将有1200亿元国库现金定存到期，12月25日将有3000亿元MLF到 期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面整体继续保持宽松，DR001加权平均利率小降并停留在1.27%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价仍在1.25%，供给在近千亿水 平。非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金报价在1.45%-1.48%左右。交易员表示，年内资金供给充沛，价格维持低位，14天逆回购继续投放稳预期，此外预 计年底应该还有财政资金投放驰援。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.69%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 4. 银行间主要利率债收益 ...

1.宏观叙事：债务危机或将重塑全球秩序。疫情以来，美国的债务和基础财政赤字持续扩张，联邦政府 债务水平升至历史最高，且持有者更加分散。美国双赤字的扩大迫使其向外转嫁危机，近年全球经济政 策不确定性和地缘政治风险明显抬头。若债务问题未解决，黄金和科技在中长期将持续获得上涨动力。 广发证券主要观点如下： 近期黄金走势：8月以来伦敦金现货最高冲破4380美元/盎司，衍生品净多头+ETF天量流入是本轮行情 的主要驱动因素。金价10月深度回调后反弹，短期市场情绪已经回暖：(1)衍生品净多头+ETF流入格局 不变；(2)黄金期权隐含波动率已从前期高位回落至近6个月均值附近，超涨压力基本释放；(3)地缘政治 格局呈现"局部缓和与多点升温交织"特征，避险情绪小幅升温。 黄金价格回调但仍长期看多黄金的三大原因： 广发证券发布研报称，金价10月深度回调后反弹，短期市场情绪已经回暖。黄金价格回调但仍长期看多 黄金的三大原因：宏观叙事：债务危机或将重塑全球秩序。美国双赤字的扩大迫使其向外转嫁危机。基 本面：实际利率下降将边际支撑金价。12月美联储降息且表态偏鸽，并开启扩表，货币宽松持续叠加通 胀的回升，金价将受实际利率较强的支撑。资 ...

Market Overview - Both stock and bond markets experienced gains, with government bond futures showing a rapid increase towards the end of the trading session, indicating a further recovery in technical indicators [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has gradually narrowed from previous highs, suggesting limited upward movement potential despite a slight increase expected [1] Government Bonds - Government bond futures closed higher across the board: 30-year futures rose by 0.22% to 112.660, 10-year futures increased by 0.10% to 108.150, 5-year futures went up by 0.09% to 105.970, and 2-year futures gained 0.04% to 102.490 [1] - The yields on major interbank government bonds fell: the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.835%, while the 30-year government bond yield dropped by 2.45 basis points to 2.228% [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 562 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being successfully bid [2] - Additionally, a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 1000 billion yuan was conducted, indicating a net injection of 357 billion yuan for the day [2] Interbank Rates - Short-term Shibor rates increased across the board, with the overnight rate rising by 0.03 basis points to 1.2733%, and the 7-day rate increasing by 0.51 basis points to 1.4311% [3] - The interbank repo rates showed mixed performance, with some rates remaining stable while others experienced slight increases [4] Credit Bonds - Non-financial credit bonds on the exchange saw significant gains, with the top five performers including bonds from Vanke, showing increases of up to 5.26% [4] - Conversely, the top five declining non-financial credit bonds included several from Vanke and other issuers, with declines reaching as much as 3.7% [4]

Group 1: Domestic News - Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched full island closure, marking the beginning of a new chapter in its construction with 8 open ports and 10 "second-line ports" now operational [2] - The People's Bank of China will issue 400 billion yuan of 6-month central bank bills on December 22, 2025, with a fixed interest rate [2] Group 2: International News - The U.S. November core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, indicating easing inflation pressure [4] - The overall CPI for November increased by 2.7%, below the expected 3.1% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market remains loose, with short-term bonds recovering while long-term bonds show weakness [6][7] - The central bank conducted 883 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40% and 1,000 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos [6] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.60 basis points to 1.8420% [9] Group 4: Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.38% to $56.15 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 3.85% to $3.945 per million BTU [5] Group 5: Credit Market - Vanke announced that "22 Vanke MTN005" will be redeemed on December 28, and a meeting of bondholders is being prepared [12] - China South City announced a debt restructuring timeline, with a plan to release the restructuring scheme in Q1 2026 [12] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market continued to rise, with major indices showing increases and a total trading volume of 657.13 billion yuan [13] - The top gainers included Jia Mei Convertible Bond, which rose by 20%, while the top loser was Da Zhong Convertible Bond, which fell by over 6% [14]

新华财经北京12月18日电（王菁）债市周四（12月18日）延续暖势，国债期货主力小幅收涨，银行间现 券收益率下行1BP左右，超长债保持修复态势；公开市场单日净投放697亿元，月内资金利率小幅回 落。 机构认为，税期走款基本结束，目前处于月中，扰动因素不多，市场流动性预期较为稳定，后续需关注 跨年时点的资金价格波动情况。随着此前持续调整，超长端已跌出性价比，配置盘可能逐渐增配，交易 盘或也因为仓位下降而补仓，助力市场企稳。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%报112.25，10年期主力合约持平于108.01，5年期主力 合约涨0.02%报105.85，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.442。 银行间主要利率债收益率延续下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行1BP报2.223%，10年期 国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.6BP报1.8965%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率持平报1.8360%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间12月17日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.43BP报3.483%，3年 期美债收益率持平报3.528%，5年期 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 468 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a bid amount of 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan for the day due to 1898 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1][2]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a loose funding condition as the tax period ended, with overnight repo weighted average rates (DR001) at 1.26%, anonymous click (X-repo) overnight quotes at 1.25%, and non-bank institutions borrowing against credit bonds at 1.43%-1.45% [3][4]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.75% [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.63%, the 10-year by 0.1%, the 5-year by 0.06%, and the 2-year by 0.01% [11]. Fiscal Data - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue reached 200516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 164814 billion yuan, up 1.8%. Notably, stamp duty revenue was 4044 billion yuan, increasing by 27%, with securities transaction stamp duty at 1855 billion yuan, up 70.7% [12]. - In the same period, Sichuan province's industrial added value grew by 6.8%, and retail sales totaled 26395.7 billion yuan, up 5.5% [12]. - Shaanxi province's industrial added value increased by 7.5%, with mining up 9.5%, manufacturing up 5.4%, and utilities up 4.6% [12]. Global Macro Indicators - In the UK, November CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, the largest drop since July 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [14]. - Japan's November exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 1.3% [14]. Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance issued two short-term treasury bonds totaling 1000 billion yuan [16]. - China Bank fully redeemed 20 billion yuan of perpetual bonds [16]. - Yuexiu Property plans to issue up to 1.77 billion yuan in dim sum bonds [16]. - Poly Development received approval to publicly issue up to 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds [17].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 468 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous rates, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,430 billion yuan due to 1,898 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] Interbank Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments showed a slight decline, with overnight Shibor down by 0.10 basis points to 1.2750%, 7-day Shibor down by 0.10 basis points to 1.4280%, and 14-day Shibor down by 3.90 basis points to 1.4710% [2][3] Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight funding rates remained around 1.27%, with the weighted average rate for DR001 down by 0.13 basis points to 1.2731%, DR007 down by 0.65 basis points to 1.4423%, and DR014 down by 2.88 basis points to 1.4794% [4][6] Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment on December 17 was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates for pledged loans ranging from 1.30% to 1.40% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [9] - A total of 99 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 185.56 billion yuan [9] Financial Market Developments - The financial preparations for the Hainan Free Trade Port, which will officially start its full island closure on December 18, have been completed, with the People's Bank of China supporting the construction of the port [12] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration approved Xiamen International Bank's capital increase of 2.17 billion Hong Kong dollars in Xiamen International Investment Co., Ltd. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening on December 17, with long-term bonds performing better, as government bond futures rose across the board and interbank bond yields fell by approximately 2 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.63% to 112.14, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.005, and the 5-year main contract up by 0.06% to 105.84 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" decreased by 2.5 basis points to 2.254%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield fell by 0.95 basis points to 1.843% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 3.12 basis points to 4.143% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.1 basis points to 1.974% [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 91-day government bonds at 1.1220% and 1.2957%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.09 and 2.69 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 468 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.275% [6]. Institutional Views - Huaxi Fixed Income noted that the bond market's short-term fundamentals are not the main pricing driver, with concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply overshadowing expectations for loose monetary policy [7]. - Zheshang Bank indicated that the overall liquidity is stable, and there are no significant adverse policies or events affecting the bond market, suggesting that further declines are unlikely [8]. - CITIC Securities mentioned that seasonal factors may lead to a slight contraction in the scale of wealth management products, but this is expected to recover quickly in early January [8].

进入12月，银行间资金利率在低位区间继续回落。上周，具有市场风向标意义的DR001阶段性跌破 1.3%，收于1.27%的年内新低，打破了今年以来隔夜利率"低位低波但不破下限"的运行状态。随着12月 税期临近，市场对资金面是否转紧的关注明显升温。不过，从央行操作节奏及机构判断来看，在中长期 流动性提前投放、财政支出形成补充以及机构资金需求偏弱等因素支撑下，税期扰动预计难以改变年末 资金面整体平稳充裕的格局。（上证报） ...