6 月中旬：边际乐观，逢低建仓 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 期指贴水、成交缩量等维度皆指向市场悲观预期足够充分，无论从历史胜率还是定价 逻辑，当下都是一个建仓较好的时点。未来增量资金大头更看好游资、个人回流，小 盘有望更强。 ❑ 为什么 6 月中旬可以更乐观一些？ 外围风险压制松动，风险偏好中枢上移。从 3 月中旬开始，A 股进入缩量阶段， 全 A 成交额由 2 月 21 日的 2.23 万亿缩至 6 月 6 日的 1.18 万亿。历史上，当多 空筹码结构严重失衡，大多数人偏悲观的时候，是一个较好的建仓时点。从 2017 年以来的统计结果来看，以中证 500 股指期货次月合约为例，若在年化贴 水超过 15%时买入中证 500 指数，虽然初期仍将有所震荡，但持有超过 12 个交 易日后，平均累计收益就将震荡走高，而持有超过 33 个交易日后，累计收益为 正的胜率就将持续高于 50%，持有超过 50 个交易日后的胜率则基本能达到 60% 以上。本轮周期中，期货贴水于 4 月 7 日首次超过 15%，距今已有 41 个交易 日，历史经验表明，未来市场或有望进一步走高。从本次贴水逻辑来看，美债信 用裂痕、美国财政资金 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 科技或是轮动下一站 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：身处"乱纪元"，心向"恒纪元" 6 月 3-6 日，类权益行情显著走强。截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5156.21，较 5 月 30 日上涨 1.61%；中证转 债同期上涨 1.08%，各价位转债估值回升。 ► 海外线索："乱纪元"并未改变 中美贸易线索，或进入新阶段。美国将钢铝关税提升至 50%， 不过市场已对频繁的关税消息"麻木"，并未引发较大波动。 非农推动美国经济增长预期回暖，降息预期回撤，美联储年 内首次降息预计不会早于9月。值得注意的是，中美官员将于 6 月 9 日在伦敦进行新一轮贸易谈判，除了关税之外，还可能 就技术出口限制等方面进行谈判。 ► 策略：维持轮动思维，关注科技机会 "乱纪元"环境仍在延续，建议继续维持轮动思维。尽管中 美各方面摩擦均趋于缓和，但国际线索仍然以混沌为主，需 要做好形势反复的准备。而在基本面修复的基础上，"乱纪 元"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating a potential for continued strong fluctuations and possible upward breakthroughs in the near term [3][6][14]. Core Insights - The report identifies that the end of the "filling pit" market phase is primarily driven by policies and external events, with historical data showing that out of seven instances since 2015, five resulted in market increases post-oscillation [6][14]. - Current short-term economic recovery trends are noted, with improvements in real estate sales and increased operational rates in the construction sector [19][24]. - The report emphasizes a focus on technology and new consumption sectors for investment, suggesting that these areas will continue to outperform in the near term [36][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Ending the Oscillation After the Filling Pit Market - The end of the oscillation phase is driven by policies and external events, with historical oscillation periods averaging 86 trading days, where five out of seven instances led to market increases [6][14]. - Key factors influencing the end of oscillation include policy easing and positive external events, such as geopolitical developments and economic agreements [6][14]. 2. Weekly Strategy: Continued Strong Oscillation in A-Shares - Short-term economic recovery is evident, with real estate sales showing resilience and construction project initiation rates improving [19][24]. - Liquidity remains loose, with significant reverse repos scheduled, indicating a strong willingness from the central bank to maintain liquidity [24][26]. 3. Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology and New Consumption - The report suggests that small-cap stocks may continue to outperform, as current market indicators are significantly below historical thresholds for style switching [33][34]. - Technology and new consumption sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with historical trends indicating these sectors perform well during oscillation periods [36][37]. - Valuation attractiveness is noted in sectors such as oil services, textiles, and media, with low PE ratios and high expected growth rates [40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong bank stocks is driven by multiple factors including new public fund regulations, insurance capital acquisitions, and significant inflows from southbound funds [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - Several Hong Kong bank stocks, including CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank, reached historical highs on June 6 [1] - The Bank ETF Preferred (517900) saw a rise of over 0.9%, indicating strong market interest and capital inflow [1] Group 2: Capital Inflows - Recent analysis indicates that bank stocks are receiving support from three main sources of capital: new public fund regulations, insurance capital acquisitions, and southbound fund inflows [3][6] - In the past five trading days, the Bank ETF Preferred attracted a net inflow of 13.54 million yuan, with a year-to-date increase in shares exceeding 100%, totaling 120 million yuan [3] Group 3: Insurance Capital Activity - As of the end of May, insurance companies have made 15 acquisitions in bank stocks this year, surpassing the total for the first nine months of 2024 [6] - The preference for high-dividend bank stocks has increased among insurance capital, with notable acquisitions in Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank, and CITIC Bank [6] Group 4: Southbound Fund Inflows - Southbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in bank stocks, with net purchases of 27.7 billion yuan in the last month, 71.7 billion yuan in the last three months, and 209.9 billion yuan over the past year [7] - By the end of May, southbound funds held 685.8 billion yuan in 14 Hong Kong bank stocks, with a total market value increase of over 182 billion yuan this year [7] Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Banks are viewed as good long-term investment options due to stable ROE, high dividends, and potential economic recovery [8] - Historical performance shows that holding bank indices has yielded returns of 170%, 92.9%, and 39.6% since 2010, 2015, and 2020 respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8] Group 6: Fund Allocation Trends - The new public fund regulations are expected to correct the under-allocation of bank stocks in active equity funds, potentially leading to increased capital inflows [9] - The trend of insurance capital and foreign investment returning to bank stocks is anticipated to continue, driven by the reallocation of global funds [9] Group 7: Performance of Bank AH Index - The Bank AH Index has risen by 14.31% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI Bank Index by over 5% [11] - Since its inception, the Bank AH Total Return Index has increased by 81.44%, significantly outperforming the CSI Bank Total Return Index, which rose by 59.17% [16]

行业轮动 6 月观点。 单 因子多策略推荐配置的多头行业为非银行金融、电子、银行。复合因子策略推荐 的多头行业为非银行金融、医药、建材、基础化工、钢铁。 风险提示： 模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 报告导读： 风格轮动模型层面， 2025Q2 ，宏观量价双驱大小盘、价值成长模型分别发 出大盘、价值信号。 5 月，风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证。行业轮动模型层面， 5 月， 单因子多策略模型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31% ，相对基准的超额为 0.33% 。 风格层面， 2025Q2 ，大小盘双驱轮动策略发出大盘信号 ,5 月，大盘占优，相对小盘的月超额为 0.56% 。 2025Q2 ，价值成长轮动策略发出价值信号 ;5 月，价值占优，相对成长的月超额为 3.40% 。 风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证，市场偏向大盘、价值风格。 行业轮动模型层面， 5 月单因子多策略模 型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31% ，相对基准的超额为 0.33% 。 6 月，单因子策略、复合因子策略推荐 配置的多头行业均涵盖非银金融行业。 大小盘风格轮动 Q2 配置信号。 根据 2025 年 03 月 31 日的最新数据， ...

央行投放的目的是保持银行体系流动性充裕，本月好像有几笔债到期了，同时也可以给银行投入市场置换存量债务，1~4月份的社融数据大家也看到了，信 贷的回暖不是很明显。 流动性宽松，意味着核心资产依旧还会上涨，估值会重塑，市场会有大量的资金流入指数权重股推动大盘指数的上涨。 从市场资金流向看，主要是布局港美股，无论是中概股还是港股的估值相比A股依旧更有性价比，外资机构也陆续披露了对港股的持仓，几乎都是继续增 持。 盘后，上证指数3连阳，大家的情绪慢慢回暖了，人性在股市被会短期波动无限放大。 这个位置的A股或者港股都是机会大于风险，成交量也重返1.3万亿了，权重行业也是蠢蠢欲动了。行业轮动上涨的情况下，一定要做好自己的交易计划，如 果买错了就会踏空。 对于后市的行情，分享几个自己观点，与大家分享下，欢迎您的批评与指正。 第一，6月6日将开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作 第三，A股会迎来补涨了吗 港股已经大幅反弹了，A股的涨幅明显落后。上涨只会迟到，并不会缺席。当下的行情只需要系好安全带，静待花开。 成交量会继续放量，本月有机会看到1.5万亿成交量，甚至2万亿成交量。科技股也会反弹，只要没有割肉的情况下，3天时间可以跑 ...

[Table_Title] 风格轮动策略（四）：成长、价值轮动的基本面 金融工程丨深度报告 信号 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本文尝试融合主观研判与量化分析视角来构建风格轮动框架，主要基于五大维度来构建核心风 格轮动模型，最终将会考虑运用于实际可投资组合（不同风格的个股、风格主题 ETF，以及匹 配特定风格特征的主动管理型基金）。本文仅基于基本面维度的成长价值风格轮动进行展开，后 续系列研究将聚焦其他维度进行风格轮动的展开。从结果来看，基本面视角下成长价值风格轮 动策略相较其均衡配置基准能够跑出长期超额，但受限于基本面视角各指标传导路径不一、传 导时滞在不同背景下有所差异，最终策略的表现还有所局限。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490524080006 SFC：BUT353 覃川桃 邓元哲 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 风格轮动策略（四）：成 ...

金融工程/[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 | 风格及行业观点月报（2025.06） | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 风格轮动模型持续得到验证，行业轮动两模型均推荐配置非银 | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | 本报告导读： | | 卓洢萱(分析师) | | 风格轮动模型层面，2025Q2，宏观量价双驱大小盘、价值成长模型分别发出大盘、 | | 021-38676666 | | 价值信号。5 月，风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证。行业轮动模型层面，5 月，单因 子多策略模型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31%，相对基准的超额为 0.33%。 | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | 投资要点： 基 本 面 量 化 月 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 6947146 [Table_Summary] 风格层面，2025Q2，大小盘双驱轮动策略发出大盘信号,5 月，大盘 占优，相对小盘的月超额为 0.56%。2025Q2， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the rapid growth and diversification of the ETF market in China, highlighting its increasing importance as a flexible investment tool for both fund and stock investors [1][6]. Group 1: Advantages of ETFs - ETFs utilize a real-time trading mechanism that supports T+0 cross-border trading, significantly enhancing trading flexibility compared to QDII off-market funds [4]. - They passively track benchmark indices, employing strategies to control tracking error, resulting in net asset value movements closely aligned with the underlying index, such as the CSI 300 ETF [4]. - ETFs offer high transparency, with daily disclosures of subscription and redemption lists, providing timely insights into constituent stocks and their weights [4]. - Cost control is a notable advantage, with explicit fees ranging from 0.15% to 0.5% per year and trading commissions at 0.1% to 0.3%, alongside low implicit costs [4]. - The product system is diverse, covering various asset classes including stocks, bonds, and commodities, with broad-based ETFs achieving industry balance and thematic ETFs targeting specific sectors like chip design and automotive [4]. Group 2: Growth of ETF Market - By the end of 2024, the total number of ETFs in China reached 1,033, with a total scale exceeding 3.7 trillion yuan, marking an 81% increase from 2023, with a net increase of 1.7 trillion yuan [7]. - Stock ETFs accounted for 2.89 trillion yuan, representing 78% of the market, driven by policy support and significant capital inflows [7]. - Bond ETFs exceeded 170 billion yuan, with a 100% growth in scale and a 243% increase in share, influenced by loose monetary policy and declining interest rates [7]. - Commodity ETFs saw nearly 150% growth, primarily due to rising gold prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold ETFs making up over 80% of this category [7]. - As of February 2025, the total scale of ETFs further increased to 3.79 trillion yuan, with ongoing focus on broad-based and strategic ETFs, driven by policy fee reductions and product innovations [7]. Group 3: Innovations in ETFs - In 2024, new "A series" indices were created, expanding the coverage of thematic ETFs across various industries, including automotive, petrochemicals, telecommunications, and computing [9]. - The introduction of chip-related ETFs on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board addressed the lack of investment options in the chip sector, with new indices launched to cover chip design and semiconductor materials [10]. - The launch of the first ETF linked to the Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive industry index improved investment tools for investors targeting new energy vehicle companies [11]. - By February 28, 2025, the number of indices covered by ETFs expanded by eight, including innovative and high-value indices like the National Index Free Cash Flow and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index [11].

（原标题：和讯投顾谢正光：科技类股行情开始了吗？） 和讯投顾谢正光表示，这里面我们简单的来跟大家梳理一下。首先目前的成交量看似增幅不明显，但是 其中最底层的内涵，就是很多筹码是被锁定的，比如说4月初3040点进来的这些资金基本上就是处于一 种相对稳定的状况。没有在里面来回的去就是说做一些差价，所以说成交量相当稳定。第二，市场目前 在一个震荡的过程中起起伏伏，所以说交易的很多的、比较频繁的一些选手，他现在在基本上处于一种 等待的过程中。所以说我们认为这种成交量是目前震荡盘升过程中一种比较良性的。那么突然放量其实 还不是好事，因为成交量它是一个分歧指标，所以说成交量很大的时候，相反的来说的话，要注意短期 有调整的可能。 那么今天这个成交量我们实际上在未来一段时间内都要慢慢的进行适应。就是说这种成交量是一种稳定 上涨的成交量，所以说大家不用太过担心，这是第一点。总体上大盘还是一种板块间轮动表现背景下的 一种震荡行情，这是一个主基调。在这个主基调的背景下，也就是我们经常在前期节目中谈的以消费类 股和科技类股来回轮动。 6月5日，大盘又收出了一根阳线，这已经是连续三连阳了，成交量也相对应的放大了一些，达到了1.3 万亿 ...