此外，主题投资机构Citrini Research发布了一份题为《2028年6月情景分析》的研究报告。报告在开篇 明确指出，这不是预测，而是一场思想实验。其设定更接近一次极端压力测试：假设到2028年，AI在 白领岗位中加速渗透，部分岗位被替代，收入下降、消费收缩，依赖软件系统运行的信贷资产风险上 升，最终拖累经济进入收缩区间。 消息面上，隔夜美股大型科技股多数收跌，软件股再遭猛烈抛售。美国AI初创公司Anthropic宣布， 其"Claude Code"工具新增对COBOL语言系统的支持能力，可自动化完成老旧系统现代化过程中复杂的 代码分析、逻辑梳理与迁移规划工作，大幅降低人工介入成本与周期。COBOL(面向商业的通用语言) 由美国通用汽车公司于20世纪50年代末主导开发，长期作为金融、政务等关键领域核心系统语言。 AI冲击波卷土重来，港股应用软件股普遍下挫，截至发稿，新纽科技(09600)跌9.52%，报0.285港元； 聚水潭(06687)跌9.37%，报19.54港元；浪潮数字企业(00596)跌7.9%，报3.73港元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Uncertainty increases, price fluctuates [2][4] - Zinc: Rangeside fluctuation [2][7] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, rangeside fluctuation [2][10] - Tin: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [2][12] - Aluminum: Post - holiday trend is relatively strong; Alumina: Rangeside fluctuation; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][16] - Platinum: Boosted by the strengthening of silver [2][19] - Palladium: Tariff disturbances resurface, fluctuating with an upward bias [2][20] - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, continuously focus on nickel ore contradictions; Stainless steel: Cost support center moves up, off - season inventory accumulation restricts elasticity [2][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380, down 1.91%; the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901, up 0.35%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper and LME copper changed, and inventory and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: AI concerns intensify, tariff war risks resurface, and US stocks decline. The US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs, and the European Parliament suspends the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two - year transformation. China promotes central enterprises to invest in computing power. Codelco's copper production increased in December 2025, and there was a global refined copper supply surplus in December 2025 [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,250, down 1.70%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,378, up 0.91%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [7]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urges the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analyzes that tariffs may be lowered in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700, unchanged; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,966.5, up 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [10]. - **News**: Similar to copper, AI concerns and tariff war risks affect the market, and the US stops collecting illegal tariffs [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 365,400, down 7.05%; the closing price of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 47,370, up 1.35%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and prices [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentions higher tariffs, the EU may suspend the US - EU trade agreement, the German Chancellor visits China, and the Fed official mentions AI - related job cuts [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [14] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: There were detailed data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, premiums, and inventory of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. - **Comprehensive News**: US Democrats oppose tariff extension and advocate for refund. Trump may attack Iran. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: 0; Cast aluminum alloy: 1 [18] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: There were price changes in platinum and palladium futures and spot prices, as well as changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will visit China, the EU suspends the US - EU trade agreement, there are US economic data, and there are developments in US - Iran relations. Hong Kong aims to be an international gold trading center, etc. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum: 0; Palladium: 0 [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and related prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as changes in the prices and spreads of products in the industrial chain [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia restricts new smelting licenses, revises the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and there are issues such as corporate violations, port monopolies, and mine restarts [24][25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [29]

中信建投指出，AI发展日新月异，大模型持续迭代升级，算力需求非常强劲。例如智谱新模型编程能 力大幅提升，引发算力需求激增。大模型的商业变现路径畅通，正在从"低价/免费圈地"阶段走向"为高 质量付费"阶段，且带动的算力需求非常旺盛。假期期间，美股AI算力光通信个股总体表现亮眼，如 Lumentum、康宁、Coherent均创历史新高。继续看好AI产业链，包括大模型、AI算力链等，或可持续 关注国内光通信板块，包括光模块、光纤光缆核心公司。 2025年ETF"涨幅王"通信ETF（515880）全年上涨125.81%居全市场第一，不仅涨幅可观，通信ETF （515880）的规模也是同类第一，截至2025年12月31日，通信ETF光模块含量占比超过46%，服务器含 量近20%，代表了海外算力的基本面底气，目前仍是景气优选，建议持续关注。 注：数据来源：中证指数公司，wind，截至2025/2/13，通信ETF规模为146.32亿元，在同类15只产品中 排名第一。权重占比截至2025/12/31。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

此外，主题投资机构Citrini Research发布了一份题为《2028年6月情景分析》的研究报告。报告在开篇 明确指出，这不是预测，而是一场思想实验。其设定更接近一次极端压力测试：假设到2028年，AI在 白领岗位中加速渗透，部分岗位被替代，收入下降、消费收缩，依赖软件系统运行的信贷资产风险上 升，最终拖累经济进入收缩区间。 消息面上，隔夜美股大型科技股多数收跌，软件股再遭猛烈抛售。美国AI初创公司Anthropic宣布， 其"Claude Code"工具新增对COBOL语言系统的支持能力，可自动化完成老旧系统现代化过程中复杂的 代码分析、逻辑梳理与迁移规划工作，大幅降低人工介入成本与周期。COBOL(面向商业的通用语言) 由美国通用汽车公司于20世纪50年代末主导开发，长期作为金融、政务等关键领域核心系统语言。 智通财经APP获悉，AI冲击波卷土重来，港股应用软件股普遍下挫，截至发稿，新纽科技(09600)跌 9.52%，报0.285港元；聚水潭(06687)跌9.37%，报19.54港元；浪潮数字企业(00596)跌7.9%，报3.73港 元。 ...

美股半导体与科技板块的周度投资备忘录，核心是对近期市场情绪、板块轮动、个股表现以及机构仓位进行解 读，并重点聚焦英伟达（NVDA）的买方预期。 我帮你拆解成几个关键部分： 一、市场整体情绪：原地踏步，等待不确定性消散 投资者感受：如同漫长寒冬，市场在原地踏步，一边降风险，一边在光学股、存储股之外寻找新机会。 核心预期：一旦不确定性消散，硬件和半导体股仍有上行空间，但机构已买入 + 4 美股半导体与科技板块的周度投资备忘录，核心是对近期市场情绪、板块轮动、个股表现以及机构仓位进行解 读，并重点聚焦英伟达（NVDA）的买方预期。 我帮你拆解成几个关键部分： 一、市场整体情绪：原地踏步，等待不确定性消散 投资者感受：如同漫长寒冬，市场在原地踏步，一边降风险，一边在光学股、存储股之外寻找新机会。 核心预期：一旦不确定性消散，硬件和半导体股仍有上行空间，但机构已买入 + 4z的半导体股，这一预期并非必 然。 本周亮点： 半导体设备（WFE）：应用材料（AMAT）财报强劲，板块持续走强，但部分个股开始面临估值压力。 光学股：在 AXTI 业绩、英伟达共封装光学（CPO）乐观预期及 OFC 会议前夕推动下，LITE、COH ...

责任编辑：于健 SF069 当被问及金融业的激烈竞争时，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，他开始看到与2008年金融危机之 前的年月有相似之处，当时一股放贷热潮最终以灾难性的结果告终。 "不幸的是，我们在2005年、2006年和2007年都看到了几乎一样的情况——水涨船高，人人都赚得盆满 钵满，"戴蒙周一告诉投资者。他表示，虽然摩根大通不愿为了提高净利息收入而从事风险更高的放 贷，"但我看到有些人做了些傻事。他们只是为了创造净利息收入而做一些蠢事。" 曾带领这家美国最大银行度过2008年金融危机并收购两家主要竞争对手的戴蒙表示，他预计信贷周期最 终会再次恶化，尽管他不确定具体时间。这位首席执行官几个月来一直在警告信贷品质可能恶化。去 年，汽车贷款机构Tricolor Holdings和汽车零件供应商First Brands Group相继倒下时，他曾经表示，当你 看到一只蟑螂时，意味着很可能还有更多。 最近几周，不同行业都面临着AI带来的"骇人交易"，投资者们都在权衡这项新技术可能会如何颠覆市 场。 戴蒙表示，信贷周期总会有一些意想不到的情况发生。他补充说，这种意外情况往往在于是哪个行业。 这一次可能会因为A ...

【重点推荐】 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月24日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-13 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4082.07 | 14100.18 | 4660.40 | 15387.66 | 4134.99 | 1470.33 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -1.25 | -1.27 | -1.25 | -0.94 | -1.19 | -0.71 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8468.08 | 11358.71 | 4528.78 | 3880.66 | 5421.16 | 615.92 | 宏观与策略 策略专题:策略专题研究-决胜 26 年牛市的三大行业机遇 行业与公司 公用环保行业专题:可控核聚变系列研究（一）-聚变启航，未来已来 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:1 月金融数据解读-居民信贷"破冰" 宏观快评:美国 1 月 CPI 点评-通胀回落，降息时点仍靠后 固定收益投 ...

昨日，港股三大指数集体走高。截至收盘，恒生指数涨 2.53%，国企指数涨 2.65%， 恒生科技指数涨 3.34%。 板块方面，光通信板块涨幅显著。其中，长飞光纤光缆 6869.HK 涨 14.43%，剑 桥科技 6166.HK 涨 6.25%，汇聚科技 1729.HK 涨 5.28%。 国际金价格持续上行，全球避险情绪升温，因此黄金股、有色金属、铜矿等板 块也有不错表现。潼关黄金 340.HK 大涨 12.58%，赤峰黄金 6693.HK 涨 7.96%， 五矿资源 1208.HK 涨 6.63%，紫金黄金国际 2259.HK 涨 6.82%，中国黄金国际 2099.HK 涨 6.14%，灵宝黄金 3330.HK 涨 6.23%，紫金矿业 2899.HK 涨 5.35%， 山东黄金 1787.HK 涨 4.6%。 汽车产业链表现优异，浙江世宝 1057.HK 涨 19.97%，知行科技 1274.HK 涨 13.3%， 赣锋锂业 1772.HK 涨 8.48%，中创新航 3931.HK 涨 7.35%，蔚来-SW 9866.HK 涨 5.55%，比亚迪股份 1211.HK 涨 4.87%，耐世特 1316. ...

2月24日，A股迎来马年首个交易日，三大指数全线上涨：上证指数高开1.15%，深证成指高开1.52%，创业板指高开1.7%。有色金属、油气、算力等板块 指数涨幅居前。 对于节后走势，多家券商机构表示乐观。"随着一系列条件的满足和不确定性因素的落地，建议大家重整旗鼓，备战马年的第一波上涨周期。"广发证券策 略首席分析师刘晨明认为。 中国银河证券策略首席分析师杨超也表示，春节假期后，在政策预期、流动性支持与产业趋势催化下，市场震荡上行概率较大，未来一段时间A股市场或 以政策催化为核心驱动力，资金将围绕政策导向的产业主线与主题机会展开博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动、风格切换快速"的特征。 兴业证券经济与金融研究院策略研究首席分析师张启尧认为，对于A股而言，节前A股跟随海外资产调整后已释放了一定的风险，节后A股即将进入一段 高胜率窗口，继续看好A股节后迎来新一轮上行。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4129.13 | 14313.86 | 1830.15 | | +47.06 +1.15% +213.67 +1.52% ...

1. Report Date - The report was released on February 24, 2026 [1] 2. Analysts - Liu Yuxuan, Investment Consulting Practitioner Qualification Number: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com [2] - Tang Wenhao (Contact), Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com [2] 3. Fundamental Data of Tin Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 365,400, with a daily decline of 7.05% [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 47,370, with a daily increase of 1.35% [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 180,497, an increase of 2,643 compared with the previous day; the position was 24,005, a decrease of 4,255 compared with the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 266, an increase of 18 compared with the previous day; the position was 21,997, a decrease of 271 compared with the previous day [2] - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,660, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2] Spot and Price Difference - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 378,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 378,100 yesterday, a decrease of 15,800 compared with the previous day [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 64 yesterday, an increase of 53 compared with the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 165,620 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was - 13,220 yesterday, a decrease of 12,420 compared with the previous day [2] Key Industry Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 364,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 368,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 251,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60A solder bar was 240,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3] 5. Macro and Industry News - Trump said countries that play tricks will face higher tariffs [4] - Due to US tariff risks, the EU plans to suspend the approval of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26 [4] - Fed Governor Waller: CEOs say AI will lead to massive layoffs [4]