中叶控股：中东局势升级，原油价格与黄金避险的双重博弈 中东地区再度成为全球市场的焦点。以色列与也门胡塞武装的冲突持续升级，以军对也门首都萨那的空 袭引发国际社会对霍尔木兹海峡安全的担忧。这一地缘政治动荡不仅牵动原油市场的神经，更将黄金这 一传统避险资产推至聚光灯下。本文将结合最新数据与历史案例，深度解析中东局势对原油价格与黄金 避险的双重影响。 长期制约：当前全球原油市场处于"供大于求"状态。2025年上半年全球原油供应量均值达1.037亿桶/ 日，需求量仅1.036亿桶/日，OPEC+增产及美国页岩油高产量加剧了供应过剩。IEA警告，2026年全球 石油市场将面临创纪录的供应过剩（预计达190万桶/日），长期压制油价上行空间。 一、原油市场：地缘风险与供需博弈的角力 1. 短期供应中断风险：霍尔木兹海峡的"命门" 中东地区是全球原油供应的"心脏"，沙特、伊朗、伊拉克等国的原油产量占全球总产量的40%。而霍尔 木兹海峡作为全球30%海运原油的必经之路，其安全状况直接决定全球能源命脉。 历史案例：1980年两伊战争期间，霍尔木兹海峡多次关闭，导致全球原油价格在半年内飙升200%。 当前风险：2025年8月以军空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the influence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical risks, and upcoming economic data on gold prices. The market is at a crossroads, with various factors shaping its future trajectory. Group 1: Market Influences - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,390.47 per ounce, showing stability amid uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market anticipates the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to maintain a 2.6% increase for July, influencing gold's price movements [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is over 87%, providing some support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Data Impact - If the PCE data shows stronger inflationary pressures, it could challenge the market's expectations for a rate cut, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is heavily dependent on upcoming economic data, which adds uncertainty to gold price forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Recent trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around $3,393, with potential targets set at $3,375 to $3,365 [3][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels, with $3,373 identified as a critical support point for potential rebounds [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures experienced a slight increase, reversing earlier losses, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Fed governor [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures for August delivery rose by 0.5%, closing at $3,404.60 per ounce, marking the highest closing price since August 8 [2] - Silver futures for August delivery increased by 0.3%, closing at $38.689 per ounce [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Two main factors driving the recent rise in gold prices include signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding a potential rate cut in September and Trump's actions raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, and unresolved trade tensions are expected to maintain a solid risk premium in gold prices [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) include SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), iShares Silver ETF (SLV), and GlobalX Silver Miners ETF (SIVR) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining, the world's third-largest mining company, reported record quarterly performance but warned that geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism pose challenges to its overseas projects, with global uncertainty reaching unprecedented levels [1][3]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's latest financial report indicates a net profit of 28.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55%, with attributable net profit reaching 23.3 billion yuan, up 54% [1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 167.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, and the overall gross margin for mineral products was 60.23%, an increase of 3 percentage points [4]. Production and Business Structure - The company produced 570,000 tons of copper, a 9% increase year-on-year; gold production reached 41 tons, up 16%; and silver production was 224 tons, a 6% increase [5]. - In terms of business structure, copper sales accounted for 27.8% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.5%, while gold sales represented 49.1% of revenue, benefiting from a significant rise in gold prices, with a gross margin of 38.6% [5]. Resource Strategy - Zijin Mining continues to implement a "exploration + acquisition" dual strategy, adding 2.049 million tons of copper resources and 888 tons of gold resources during the reporting period [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the Akim gold mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, enhancing its presence in West Africa and Central Asia [6]. Geopolitical Risks - The company highlighted multiple challenges facing the mining industry, including rising costs, trade disruptions, and countries seeking to protect their resources [7]. - Political, policy, and legal differences between countries, along with resource nationalism, may pose challenges to construction and production operations [7]. Market Outlook - In the copper market, the introduction of U.S. copper tariffs, combined with low global inventories, may lead to short-term market volatility as trade flows are reshaped [10]. - For the gold market, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and central bank purchases are expected to enhance gold's attractiveness [11]. - The zinc market is facing short-term pressure with a tight balance, as production increases in China but reductions are seen overseas [12]. - In the lithium market, the company warned that disruptions in supply expectations could lead to high price volatility, and the clearing of excess supply will take time [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a characteristic of strong oscillation within a range. The supply side is supported by the US's strengthened export layout and restricted Russian oil supply, but the weak demand in India and potential production increases from OPEC+ (such as the UAE's acquisition) form an upper pressure. In the short term, Trump's energy policy and geopolitical conflict risks may push WTI to continue testing the $65/barrel resistance level, but the spread of weakening Indian demand to other Asian countries should be watched out for. In the medium term, attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy adjustment in September and the progress of seasonal refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. If the expectation of US strategic reserve release rises or the refined oil cracking profit declines, there is a risk of oil price correction, but the geopolitical premium will still support the oil price to oscillate within the range [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined by 0.14% to 492.9 yuan/barrel, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $63.77 and $67.26 per barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened by 12.16% to $1.66/barrel, and the SC-WTI spread widened by 3.62% to $5.15/barrel, indicating an increase in the premium of SC relative to overseas crude oil. The Brent-WTI spread remained flat at $3.49/barrel, and the contango structure (SC continuous - continuous 3) deepened to -2.8 yuan/barrel, suggesting a market expectation of loose future supply [2]. - The warehouse receipt data shows that the warehouse receipts of fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged, indicating limited physical delivery pressure and stable market holding sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply side**: The Trump administration mentioned expanding oil cooperation with Japan and South Korea in Alaska, which may strengthen US crude oil export capacity; the UAE's Crescent Petroleum Company's acquisition of Vital Energy ($3.1 billion) may drive a marginal increase in Middle East production. India's crude oil imports in July dropped to the lowest level since February 2024 (down 8.7% month - on - month), possibly reflecting the inhibitory effect of OPEC+'s high oil prices on Asian demand. In addition, US sanctions on Russian crude oil supply and EU procurement disputes may limit the inflow of Russian oil into the market, intensifying the expectation of supply tightness [4]. - **Demand side**: India's refined oil imports decreased by 12.8% year - on - year and exports decreased by 2.1%, indicating weak refinery processing demand, possibly affected by seasonal refinery maintenance and high oil prices. The US energy policy shift towards strengthening crude oil exports (such as the agreement with South Korea), combined with WTI breaking through $64/barrel (intraday increase of over 2%), shows short - term speculative funds' bets on demand recovery. The strengthening of fuel oil cracking (the main contract rose 5%) may support refinery start - up, but the risk of shrinking Asian refining profits should be watched out for [5]. - **Inventory side**: The changes in US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories were not clear, but the widening of the SC and Brent - WTI cross - regional spreads implied regional inventory differentiation. The medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 4.767 million barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained at 11,110 tons, indicating limited physical inventory pressure in the Asia - Pacific region. The commercial crude oil inventories of OECD member countries were temporarily neutral in the game between weakening Indian demand and Middle East production increase [6]. c. Price Trend Judgment The current crude oil market shows a characteristic of strong oscillation within a range. The supply side is supported by the US's strengthened export layout and restricted Russian oil supply, but the weak demand in India and potential production increases from OPEC+ (such as the UAE's acquisition) form an upper pressure. The spread structure shows that the widening of the SC premium and the rare inversion of Brent's discount relative to Middle East crude oil reflect regional supply - demand mismatches. In the short term, Trump's energy policy and geopolitical conflict risks may push WTI to continue testing the $65/barrel resistance level, but the spread of weakening Indian demand to other Asian countries should be watched out for. In the medium term, attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy adjustment in September and the progress of seasonal refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. If the expectation of US strategic reserve release rises or the refined oil cracking profit declines, there is a risk of oil price correction, but the geopolitical premium will still support the oil price to oscillate within the range [7][8]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On August 25, 2025, SC was at 492.90 yuan/barrel (down 0.14% from August 22), WTI was at $64.74/barrel (up 1.52% from August 22), and Brent was at $68.20/barrel (up 1.40% from August 22). - **Spot prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $70.26/barrel, and other spot prices had different degrees of increase. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread strengthened by 12.16% to $1.66/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened by 3.62% to $5.15/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread remained flat at $3.49/barrel. The SC continuous - continuous 3 contango deepened by 3.70% to -2.80 yuan/barrel. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.72% to 98.42, the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,439.32 points, the DAX index fell 0.40% to 24,273.12 points, and the RMB exchange rate fell 0.40% to 7.15. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.41% to 42,068,400 barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 1.82% to 2,347,000 barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06% to 40,342,500 barrels, and API inventory decreased by 0.53% to 45,079,600 barrels. - **Refinery operations**: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 96.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.16% to 1,720,800 barrels per day [9]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU was at 2,907.00 yuan/ton (up 4.61% from August 22), LU was at 3,526.00 yuan/ton (up 0.77% from August 22), and NYMEX fuel oil was at 234.95 cents/gallon (up 1.75% from August 22). - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices of fuel oil had different degrees of increase. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not available, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 14.03% to 619.00 yuan/ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 1.36% to -1,961.00 yuan/ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread increased by 6.61% to -1,807.00 yuan/ton. - **Platts prices**: Platts (380CST) was at $390.52/ton (up 0.66% from the previous period), and Platts (180CST) was at $403.06/ton (up 0.34% from the previous period). - **Inventory**: Singapore's inventory decreased by 6.53% to 2,303,500 tons, and other US distillate inventory data was not fully available [10]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply On August 25, according to foreign media reports, India's crude oil imports in July decreased by 8.7% month - on - month to 18.56 million tons, the lowest level since February 2024, and decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. Meanwhile, refined oil imports decreased by about 12.8% year - on - year to 4.31 million tons, and refined oil exports decreased by 2.1% to 5.02 million tons [11][12]. b. Demand On August 25, according to foreign media reports, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade urged the EU to immediately cancel the counter -vailing duties on biodiesel imports because the WTO made a ruling in favor of Indonesia on several key claims in the complaint filed by Indonesia [13]. c. Inventory The night - session fuel oil price increased by nearly 1% [14]. d. Market Information As of the close on August 26, the price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.14 to $64.80 per barrel, an increase of 1.79%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.07 to $68.80 per barrel, an increase of 1.58% [15]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread statistics between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing volume (4 - week moving average), US weekly net crude oil imports (4 - week moving average), Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rate, China's monthly refined oil production (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves), US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, and fuel oil inventory [17][19][21][23][25][26][30][32][36][37][39][43][44][46][50][51][53][56][57][60][61].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the seventh price cut of the year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - From August 26, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced 17 adjustment windows, resulting in a net decrease of 405 yuan for gasoline and 390 yuan for diesel compared to the end of last year [1] - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The average price of reference crude oil was reported at $65.07 per barrel with a change rate of -3.90% as of August 26 [2] - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand, with the International Energy Agency lowering the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast and increasing the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine situation, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for oil is anticipated to decline as the summer driving season comes to an end, while OPEC+ production increases and US oil production rises [2] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may boost global fuel demand, but geopolitical uncertainties will likely continue to cause volatility in international oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a direct intervention in the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar's value and a subsequent increase in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of $30 following the announcement, with the dollar index dropping approximately 30 points [1]. - The market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the news, resulting in a strong upward movement in gold prices, which reached a high of $3376 before closing at $3365 [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but concerns about the sustainability of upward momentum exist, as market participants are cautious about the potential volatility [2]. - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a moving average range, creating uncertainty for gold's price direction [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Recommended trading strategy involves operating within a range of $3355 to $3380, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $15 to $20 [3]. - Traders are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for stabilization at key support levels before entering long positions, while also being prepared to short if resistance levels are encountered [2][3].

Geopolitical Risks - The intensifying competition between the US and China, particularly regarding Taiwan and South China Sea tensions, may trigger a phase of impulse-driven gold price increases by 2025 [1] - The global election year effect, with elections in 65 countries including the US, India, and Brazil, could lead to policy uncertainties, especially if extreme outcomes arise in the US elections, thereby elevating risk aversion [1] - The risk of uncontrolled AI governance may lead to market panic, reinforcing gold's status as a "safe haven" in the digital age [1] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally have purchased over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with emerging market central banks (e.g., China, India, Turkey) expected to continue leading purchases in 2025 [3] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 2298 tons by June 2025, marking eight consecutive months of accumulation, although the pace may slow due to high gold prices [3] - An increase of 100 tons in central bank gold purchases could reduce gold price volatility by 0.8% per quarter, but the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" effect should be monitored [3] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Key Federal Reserve meetings in 2025, particularly in March, June, September, and December, will be crucial for interest rate decisions and economic forecasts [3] - If inflation falls to the 2% target, a rate cut may occur in June, potentially driving gold prices up by 5-8% [3] - A 1% increase in the divergence of the dot plot could lead to a 1.2% increase in gold price volatility [3] Quarterly Price Forecasts - Q1 2025: Gold price expected to range between $2050-$2150, driven by US-China tensions and the US election primaries [5] - Q2 2025: Price forecasted at $2100-$2200, influenced by ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, with potential Fed rate cut signals [5] - Q3 2025: Anticipated price range of $2150-$2250 as global election results stabilize risk appetite and the Fed confirms a rate cut [5] - Q4 2025: Price expected between $2100-$2200 due to AI governance controversies and Fed adjustments to rate cuts [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-26原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他计划与美国特使凯洛格讨论与俄罗斯总统普京可能的会晤的 准备工作；匈牙利油气集团MOL表示，如果没有德鲁日巴管道供应，中欧可能在短期内面临燃料短 缺，可能导致燃料价格上涨，匈牙利和斯洛伐克周五表示，在乌克兰最近袭击俄罗斯的一处设施后， 通过德鲁日巴管道的石油供应可能会暂停至少五天；中性 2.基差：8月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.11美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.57美元/桶，基差 28.65元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月15日当周API原油 ...

做投资就像打一场战役，一定要在战役开始前定好策略，不仅要在战场上有优势的时候要怎么扩大优势，趁胜追击，而且还要制定若不敌该怎么办，怎么保 存实力撤退后再定计谋，再战。无论战争也好投资也罢，不是每一次的背水而战都能迎来胜利，历史上也只是有几次背水而战胜利的结果，就好比投资市场 里面本来趋势已经走出相反的信号，还去奢求按照自己的意愿去走，一旦有这样心理的朋友，一定要注意，此毛病不改将会被投资市场所淹没。提前预判， 先人一步，抢占先机，轻仓顺势，严格风控，轻松把握，愉快投资。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一欧市早盘，黄金小幅下跌，目前交投在3363美元附近。但就在上周五，金价可是上演了精彩逆袭，单日大涨1%，盘中更是一举冲上 3378美元的两周高位，最终收报3371美元。这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪 称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。受此影响，美元汇率应声大跌，黄金市场瞬间被看涨情绪包围。 业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元走弱和债市调整，为 ...