Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on global financial markets, leading to substantial losses for wealthy individuals and concerns about rising consumer prices due to increased tariffs [1][4][8]. Market Impact - Following the announcement of the tariffs, global financial markets experienced a major downturn, with U.S. stock markets losing nearly $6.5 trillion (over 47 trillion RMB) in value over two days [4]. - Specific declines included the Dow Jones falling over 9%, the Nasdaq dropping over 11%, and the S&P 500 decreasing over 10% [5]. - European markets also faced significant losses, with the UK FTSE 100 down over 6% and the German DAX index down nearly 8% [5]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the Australian S&P 200 also saw declines of over 5% and 3%, respectively [5]. Wealth Losses - The article highlights that the world's wealthiest individuals lost over $39 billion in just two days, with the top 20 richest individuals alone losing more than $10 billion in one day [3][6]. - The Bloomberg Billionaires Index reported a total loss of $536 billion (over 39 trillion RMB) among the 500 wealthiest individuals, marking the largest two-day loss on record [6]. Consumer Behavior - Concerns about rising prices due to tariffs have led American consumers to start stockpiling goods, with some individuals advised to purchase essential items before prices increase [8][15]. - Notable figures, such as billionaire Mark Cuban, have publicly encouraged consumers to stock up on various products, fearing price hikes even on domestically produced goods [16][17]. Economic Predictions - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" could result in average losses of $1,300, $2,100, and $5,400 for low, middle, and high-income American households, respectively [9]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is projected to rise by 2.3%, with food prices increasing by 2.8% and automobile prices by 8.4%, leading to an annual loss of $3,800 for the average American household [9][12]. Price Level Changes - The article provides specific predictions for price increases across various product categories, with leather products expected to rise by 18.3%, clothing by 16.9%, and metals by 12.3% [13][14]. - Other categories, such as processed rice and electrical equipment, are also projected to see price increases exceeding 10% [14]. International Reactions - Global leaders, including those from the UK and France, have expressed concerns about the economic and security implications of the U.S. tariff policy, emphasizing that trade wars do not benefit anyone [21][24]. - The French Prime Minister described the tariff increases as a "seismic" event that would primarily harm the U.S. economy and potentially lead to a global economic crisis [24].

Core Insights - The recent surge in demand for Chinese products in U.S. supermarkets is driven by consumer panic over rising prices due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][5][8] - The phenomenon reflects a broader trend of American consumers stockpiling goods in anticipation of future price increases, leading to empty shelves across various product categories [3][5] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - American consumers are engaging in panic buying, with many running from store to store to secure Chinese products like televisions [3][5] - Social media has become a platform for sharing "stockpiling strategies," indicating a widespread fear of price hikes [5] - The types of products being hoarded include home appliances, instant noodles, and essential clothing items, showcasing a diverse range of consumer needs [7] Group 2: Economic Impact - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in prices, with some supermarket items rising by 30%, causing distress among consumers [8] - U.S. importers are facing an additional burden of over $80 billion in tariff costs in 2023, contributing to economic strain [8] - The reliance on Chinese manufacturing is highlighted, as 9 out of 10 products in the U.S. are sourced from China, underscoring the challenges of the tariff policy [8][10] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current situation illustrates a shift in Chinese manufacturing from low-end production to high-quality, cost-effective goods, enhancing its market position [9] - Brands like Hisense and DJI are breaking the stereotype of being "cheap" by leveraging technological innovation to capture market share in high-end segments [9] - The pandemic has reinforced the resilience of the Chinese supply chain, as U.S. companies have had to revert to Chinese manufacturers after disruptions in Southeast Asia [10] Group 4: Global Trade Perspective - The buying frenzy in U.S. supermarkets serves as a microcosm of the complexities of globalization, where trade barriers ultimately harm consumers [11] - Experts suggest that protectionist measures do not benefit the economy, advocating for cooperation and innovation as the path forward [11] - The current scenario is a critique of U.S. tariff policies and a testament to the strength of Chinese manufacturing capabilities [11]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of sweeping tariffs by President Trump has led to significant declines in U.S. bank stocks, raising concerns about a potential global trade war and its negative impact on economic growth and inflation [1][6]. Banking Industry Impact - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.9%, the S&P 500 dipped 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.9%, with bank stocks performing worse than these major benchmarks [2]. - The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index slid 9.8%, and the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index tanked 10.3%, indicating severe pressure on the banking sector [2]. - Major banks such as Citigroup and Bank of America saw their shares plunge more than 10%, while Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo declined over 9% [3]. Tariff Details - President Trump announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on imports from various countries, with Chinese products facing a 34% tariff, the European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24% [4][5]. - These tariffs are expected to push overall tariff rates to their highest level in a century, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing investment [6]. Economic Outlook - The new tariffs are likely to complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target, raising fears of a recession that could negatively impact banks [6][7]. - A potential drop in loan demand and an increase in delinquency rates, particularly in consumer loans, could harm banks' asset quality [7]. - Investment banking income may remain under pressure as companies delay acquisitions due to tariff uncertainties [7]. Future Considerations - Entering 2025, banks had anticipated benefiting from a healthy economy and favorable interest rates, but the outlook has changed dramatically due to the tariffs [8]. - The probability of prolonged market volatility necessitates close monitoring of further tariff plans and broader economic indicators by investors [8]. - Currently, major banks like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's new tariff policy on risk assets, particularly the cryptocurrency market, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a surge in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1][4][7]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - On April 2, President Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs," exceeding market expectations, which led to a massive sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1][4]. - Bitcoin plummeted over $4,000, dropping from $86,900 to $82,100, while Ethereum fell from $1,950 to $1,790 [1][4]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $500 million within 24 hours, affecting over 160,000 traders [1][5]. Group 2: Gold Market Surge - Concurrently, funds flowed into the gold market, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,160 per ounce, setting a new historical high [2][7]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff policies may slow U.S. economic growth and increase inflation, driving investors towards gold as a hedge against instability [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Trump's tariffs, which include a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for specific countries, are expected to raise consumer prices and potentially lead to a recession, with a 40% probability of economic downturn predicted by JPMorgan [4][8]. - The tariffs could increase U.S. personal consumption expenditure prices by 1.7% to 2.1%, depending on retaliatory measures from other countries, and could reduce actual GDP growth by 0.6% to 1% [8]. Group 4: Global Reactions to Tariffs - The European Union and various trade partners have expressed intentions to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [9][10][11]. - Leaders from Australia, Japan, and South Korea have voiced concerns over the implications of the tariffs on their economies and are considering countermeasures [10][11].

Group 1 - The Trump administration announced a comprehensive tariff plan, imposing a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries starting April 5, with an additional 34% tariff on China from April 9, leading to significant volatility in global capital markets [1] - Northeast Securities' chief economist, Fu Peng, indicated that the tariff increases exceeded expectations and highlighted that the tariffs would not be implemented immediately, allowing time for potential negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The prediction is that if tariffs are implemented as scheduled, the probability of a recession in the U.S. will significantly increase, with a potential shift to stagflation and depression, particularly impacting large U.S. companies with significant foreign exposure [1] Group 2 - For China, the implementation of tariffs would limit negotiation options with the U.S. and encourage stronger ties with Europe and Southeast Asia, leading to pressure on exports and economic growth [2] - The Chinese government is expected to reopen fiscal and monetary tools to support domestic demand, with a higher likelihood of interest rate adjustments by the central bank [2] - The bond market in China may enter a bull market, while the reliance of outward-oriented enterprises on the U.S. could lead to market adjustments, shifting from a "dumbbell" trading strategy to a "hammer" trading strategy [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is weighing the supply risks from Russia and Iran and the negative impact on demand from the upcoming US tariffs. The details of Trump's counter - tariffs and specific industry tariffs will be announced at 3 am Beijing time on Thursday [2]. - Various commodities show different trends and are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical issues, and tariff policies. Some commodities are in a state of adjustment, while others are facing supply or demand - side pressures [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp rise the previous day, international oil prices fell overnight. The market is considering supply risks and tariff impacts. API data showed an unexpected 603700 - barrel increase in US crude oil inventories last week, and the market expects a 206000 - barrel decline in DOE inventories tonight. The resistance levels of Brent at $74 - 75 per barrel and SC at 550 yuan per barrel are still under attention [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Heavy - oil producing countries like Russia and Iran face US tariffs, making FU more affected in the context of tight global heavy - oil resources. The second - batch export quota of Chinese low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.2 billion tons year - on - year, putting downward pressure on the supply side and narrowing the high - low sulfur spread [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Recent refinery overhauls have reduced external supply, and lower domestic import costs and rising crude oil prices have led to an increase in refinery gas prices. The overseas April CP is stable, and the international market is slightly strong. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand is weakening after the overhaul season. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is oscillating [23]. - **Bitumen**: Port diluted bitumen inventories have decreased by 30000 tons and are at a historical low. Although the import efficiency of domestic refineries has improved, the refinery operating rate is still at a low - to - medium level. With rising temperatures, demand is expected to improve, and factory inventories have been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The April inventory reduction pressure is expected to ease. The short - term unilateral trend follows crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices remained strong, and silver continued to diverge after the US announced weaker - than - expected manufacturing PMI and job vacancy data. The upward trend of gold prices continues, but the rapid increase may lead to greater volatility. Empty - position holders are advised to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US March ADP employment data and tariff policies [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices adjusted overnight, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. LME copper is worried about counter - tariffs and has closed down for five consecutive days. SHFE copper is adjusting below 80000 yuan. Domestic spot copper has a small premium, and production decline in April is limited due to by - product profits. The market is sensitive to Trump's counter - tariffs, and if LME copper effectively breaks below $9600 - 9700, the adjustment range may expand [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate weakly. The inventory removal speed is slightly faster than in previous years, and the apparent consumption is good. The market expects a good performance in the peak season. After the cost reduction, higher profits require greater import expectations. SHFE aluminum oscillates above 20000 yuan, and the short - term is affected by overseas macro factors, with support at the annual - line level [5]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc continued to correct, facing pressure from the 60 - day moving average, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. The zinc concentrate TC in April continues to rise, and smelters are more motivated to produce. Export prospects are affected by "rush - to - export" and accumulated tariffs, and domestic demand depends on infrastructure and manufacturing. The consumption side has resilience but lacks growth. The short - term support is at 23000 yuan per ton, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead - acid batteries did not follow the decline in lead prices, and secondary lead smelters are reluctant to sell. The spread between refined and scrap lead has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead smelters are generally high, and it is the consumption off - season. The replacement demand is weak, and dealers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing. The SMM1 lead price has a real - time discount of 220 yuan per ton to the futures price, indicating average downstream acceptance. In the short term, there is a game between consumption and cost, and SHFE lead has a weak direction, with low trading enthusiasm. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17200 - 17800 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel weakened, and the market trading was active. The premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped to 1450 yuan, Russian nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and electrowon nickel had a discount of 150 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron remained strong, and the Indonesian ore end still affects raw material pricing. Nickel - iron inventory is at a low level of 23000 tons, pure - nickel inventory slightly increased to 47400 tons, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 980000 tons. The early - year supply - side and low - price excitement is coming to an end, and high inventory and weak demand are suppressing prices. The main support factor is the nickel - iron price. If nickel - iron weakens, the decline may intensify. Technically, there is buying support below 130000 yuan for SHFE nickel, with a general downward trend, but short - sellers need patience [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin led the rise overnight. With production risks in the two major supplying countries, the 3050 - ton inventory of LME tin increases the probability of a short - squeeze, and the LME 0 - 3 month premium has rapidly expanded to $264. SHFE tin increased positions significantly at night, and the K - line retraced the gains above 290000 yuan. The warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased, and the domestic market is also considering the strength of demand. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in low - inventory areas. SHFE tin needs a strong external market to effectively break through 290000 yuan [10]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose due to positive expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The domestic soybean meal basis showed an oscillating decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for trading opportunities during the US crop season. There may be weather - related speculation in the US summer, and there is support at the bottom. Soybeans have room for expansion at high prices but are also restricted at the top. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to move within a range [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: US soybean oil rose significantly due to a better - than - expected biodiesel policy. However, the actual raw - material demand for biodiesel is weak, and high raw - material prices may be unfavorable for demand. A large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in late April, increasing supply - side pressure and posing a risk of an oscillating decline in the soybean oil basis. For palm oil, the performance during the medium - term production - increasing season needs attention, and the price may oscillate. Overall, vegetable oils are expected to oscillate within a range, and there may be opportunities to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils in the medium term [36]. - **Corn**: The national grain - selling progress is 87%, close to the end and the fastest in the past four years. The supply at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased again, and the spot purchase price has turned down. North - port inventories have been rising, and Northeast corn prices are stable with a slight decline. South - port inventories are decreasing slowly. The concentrated release of grain by holders after the transfer of grain rights may lead to a decline in domestic corn futures [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: Hog futures trended weakly with oscillations, and multiple contracts hit new lows. Spot prices fluctuated slightly. The long - term supply pressure remains due to rising production capacity and an increase in the number of newborn piglets in February. Secondary fattening and weight - pressing in the early stage have limited price declines and postponed supply pressure. It is expected that spot hog prices will move towards the range of 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. With the narrowing of the fat - lean price spread, attention should be paid to the pressure of large - hog sales. The hog futures market continues to trade on future supply pressure, with a bearish outlook [40]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and some contracts hit new lows. Spot prices in many regions decreased. The chickens that started laying eggs in April were hatched in November last year. Due to the continuous year - on - year increase in chick hatching, the industry's production capacity is expected to rise until July this year. Weekly data shows an increase in old - hen culling. Whether it will lead to large - scale culling needs attention. Inventory data shows high pressure in the circulation link. Technically, after the contract increased positions and prices declined, the previous oscillation range was broken, and prices are expected to face more pressure, with a bearish strategy [41]. - **Fibers and Others**: - **Cotton**: US cotton rose significantly. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report showed that the expected cotton - planting area in 2025 is 9.867 million acres, lower than the market forecast of 10.189 million acres. The actual planting area in 2024 was 11.182 million acres. Attention should be paid to weather and subsequent planting progress. The strong US cotton may drive up domestic prices, but spot trading is average. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not changed much, and prices are slightly weak. The downstream operating rate is lower than the peak - season level in previous years, and the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises is low. Demand is still weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: ICE sugar rebounded overnight. The market's focus has shifted to the Brazilian fundamentals. Less rainfall in Brazil in the first quarter may lead to a decline in yield per unit. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been digested, and the market will focus on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the supply of imported sugar has decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar remains, and the domestic total supply is relatively sufficient. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Wood**: Wood futures oscillated. Spot prices were weak. The number of orders for construction poles from processing plants was average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing logs was low. Although the port shipment volume has increased recently, it is difficult to digest the inventory in the short term. The log inventory pressure is high, and spot prices are under pressure to decline. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures fell slightly yesterday. Attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6450 yuan per ton, and the prices of Hebei U - needle and B - needle pulp and broad - leaf pulp also decreased. As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper - pulp ports was 2.013 million tons, a decrease of 33000 tons from the previous period, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level year - on - year. The external - market quotation is relatively firm, with an expectation of price increases. The port inventory is still high, demand is average, and the market has a strong resistance to high - price pulp. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Other Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial - silicon futures closed slightly lower at 9790 yuan per ton. A factory plans to shut down 28 units, reducing daily output by about 1800 tons, but the market is waiting and seeing. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic silicon wafers is expected to decrease by 3GW in April due to an earthquake, reducing the demand for polycrystalline silicon. The load of organic - silicon monomers is expected to decrease by about 5% month - on - month. The demand side of industrial silicon is difficult to improve, and the supply management of the industry is crucial. The actual production - reduction intensity in the northwest is still unclear, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The main contract of plastic continued to fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. The restart of some polyethylene - production units has increased supply. Only the operating rates of the agricultural - film and drawing industries have increased, but the agricultural - film operating rate in North China has reached its peak and is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is low. Petrochemical and trading companies continue to reduce inventory through price concessions. In the medium term, the plastic price is expected to be weak. The 5 - day moving average of the main contract of polypropylene is flat, and it faces pressure from the 60 - day moving average. The new - capacity release is postponed, and the existing units are under maintenance, so the supply pressure is controllable. The downstream operating rate is generally stable and improving, but new orders are limited due to profit - level issues, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC fluctuated narrowly during the day. In April, more PVC enterprises are under regular maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic demand is flat, and the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade exports is slightly better, with concentrated delivery of export orders. The industry inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are weak, maintaining a weak pattern. For caustic soda, the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises decreased, and the spot price continued to decline slightly, with a narrowing basis. The machinery enterprises in northern Shandong that previously reduced production are resuming, increasing supply. Downstream and trading companies are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Some alumina enterprises are in the red and have production - reduction expectations. The inventory has increased month - on - month, with high pressure, and the futures price is still under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA oscillated following oil prices at night. The gasoline crack spread oscillated and rebounded, and the PX operating rate declined, improving the supply - demand situation. However, the weak terminal orders continue to affect market sentiment, and the PX valuation oscillates at a low level, mainly driven by crude oil. The PTA operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the maintenance of downstream filament and staple - fiber enterprises has increased, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for PTA, which is mainly driven by cost [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high. Although the maintenance of syngas - based units has increased, the expected decline in polyester operating rate offsets the positive impact of production reduction. The weekly arrival volume has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price oscillated at night. There was news of a decline in overseas shipments yesterday, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply changes on the market [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The operating rate of short - fiber increased, and the industry inventory continued to decrease, improving the fundamentals. However, the processing margin continued to weaken, increasing the willingness of enterprises to reduce production. The sales volume rebounded yesterday. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the processing margin to rebound from a low level due to the decline in industry operating rate. The price of bottle - chip futures oscillated. The recent restart of units has put pressure on the processing margin, which has rapidly declined to a low - level range. The absolute price is driven by cost [31]. - **Glass**: The number of glass warehouse receipts was small, and the price rose significantly yesterday. The price in Hubei increased by 20 yuan, and sales improved. Currently, coal - fired production still has a small profit, while petroleum - coke and natural - gas - fired production are in the red. The driving forces for cold - repair and ignition are both weak, and the production capacity oscillates within a certain range. The improvement of processing orders is not obvious, and enterprises are cautious about accepting orders with slow payment. The high - position situation remains to be resolved, and there is a large game between long and short positions. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose following glass. Soda - ash factories accumulated inventory on Monday. Previously - overhauled enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output increased last week. Although the second - line of Jinshan is under maintenance and Hubei Shuanghuan is operating at a reduced load, the impact is limited. With the increase in Yuangxing's production, the weekly output may return to over 700000 tons. The supply - demand situation of photovoltaic glass improved in March, with an increase in daily melting volume and an increase in the rigid demand for heavy - ash. However, the speed of future ignition plans may slow down. With supply pressure and a slowdown in demand growth, the futures price is expected to face pressure at a high level [34]. - **Iron and Steel Products**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices continued to rebound slightly at night. The sequential growth of rebar's apparent demand slowed down, and it was still weak year - on - year. The production was stable in the short term, and the inventory was slowly decreasing, but the absolute value was

来源：极速财讯 高盛认为，关税可能会阻碍增长、增加失业并加剧通胀，经济未来12个月内发生衰退的可能性为35%，远高于此前的20%。高盛预测，今年美国平均关税 税率将升高15个百分点，比此前预期高5个百分点，而更高的关税水平可能会导致通胀居高不下，预计到今年年底，美国核心CPI同比涨幅将为3.5%，显著 高于此前预测的2.8%和美联储2%的目标。届时，美国失业率预计将升至4.5%。今年美国GDP增速预计降至1%，为2020年以来最低水平。 美国财政部长贝森特表示，特朗普将于当地时间周三下午3点（北京时间周四凌晨3:00）宣布对等关税。随着时间点的临近，全球市场目光将投向白宫玫瑰 园的特朗普，投资者仍然对关税的范围不确定，企业和消费者正在为可能的影响做准备。 花旗认为，这或成为"贸易战2.0"的阶段性节点，而非终点。新一轮贸易战可能成为触发资本流向逆转的导火索，特别当欧洲财政政策转向宽松、美国消费 者支出疲软之际。短期市场可能因关税冲击出现"膝跳反应"——美元走强、美股与美债收益率承压，但长期风险在于，美国经济的脆弱性可能面临被市场 低估的风险。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 几周以来，美国总 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, high Russian exports, trade wars, and economic growth concerns, but short - term long positions are recommended considering factors like strategic reserve purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][6] - For steel products, the short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly due to potential news of crude steel production cuts and steel exports [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 due to supply disruptions, unmet demand during the peak season, and macro uncertainties [11] - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term considering supply and demand changes and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil [12][14] - For PP, the PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly due to supply and demand situations [15] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the plastic 05 basis at high levels as it is expected to decline [16][17] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with limited room for further significant decline [18] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the 2505 contract operating between 750 - 810 yuan/ton [19] - Coking coal is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] - Urea futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [22] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 13.8 barrels per day in April. The US may intercept Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count decreased by 2 last week, and US crude production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week of March 21 [3] - Demand: US refinery operating rates rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%. US crude inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. China's domestic crude processing volume has been declining slightly since March [3] - Outlook: The IEA raised the expected crude surplus, indicating downward pressure, but short - term long positions are recommended [3][6] Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Market Performance: The black series opened lower and then strengthened. The closing price of finished products moved slightly higher [7] - Supply and Demand: The demand for ribbed bars is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coils continue to resume production, and demand is rising, with good inventory reduction. Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the space for further increase is limited [7] - Outlook: Short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly [7] Copper - Supply: In February 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons, and it also decreased significantly month - on - month [11] - Demand: The peak season demand in March and April did not meet expectations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low [11] - Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 [11] Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, and the expected production in March increased by 13.2% month - on - month [12] - Demand: The downstream industries of asphalt are gradually resuming work, but the operating rate is still low. The actual demand is yet to recover [12][14] - Outlook: Long positions are recommended in the near term [14] PP - Supply: PP enterprise operating rates decreased to around 81%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn products decreased to around 29%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15] - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15] - Outlook: The PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly [15] Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate decreased to around 88%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are short - term maintenance devices [16] - Demand: PE downstream operating rates are rising, but they are still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar. New orders are slow to follow up [16][17] - Outlook: It is expected to decline, and shorting the plastic 05 basis at high levels is recommended [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%. There are a small number of new maintenance devices, and spring maintenance has not started on a large scale [18] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies. Social inventory is still high [18] - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18] Iron Ore - Supply: Supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and port inventories are rising slightly [19] - Demand: Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the demand space is limited [19] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton for the 2505 contract [19] Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mine operations have increased significantly, and imported coal resources are abundant [21] - Demand: Downstream steel and coking enterprises' operations are rising, but overseas resource prices are under pressure [21] - Outlook: It is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] Urea - Supply: Upstream maintenance is progressing steadily, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week [22] - Demand: Agricultural demand is increasing, and compound fertilizer factories are operating as before [22] - Outlook: Futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and cautious about chasing up [22]

SHMET 网讯：周一（3月31日），在特朗普公布新一轮关税之前，股市在亚洲早盘交易中下跌。同时，由于担心全球贸易战对经济造成影响，避险需 求刺激黄金触及历史新高。 日韩股市周一大幅低开。日经225指数早盘持续下跌，自3月11日以来首次跌破36000点，跌幅一度扩大至4%。东证指数下跌超3%。东京证交所33个行 业分项指数全线下跌。对全球贸易战的担忧导致出口相关股票下滑，日元走强也加大了出口商股票的压力。日经股指有望创下2020年3月以来的最差季度。 自去年12月底以来，日经指数下跌超过10%，东证指数下跌超过4%。 澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数开盘下跌107.20点，跌幅1.34%，报7874.80点。标普500指数期货也下跌。 "在4月2日的关税之前，市场可能会感到紧张，"Pictet Asset Management Japan Ltd.的投资策略主管Jumpei Tanaka在谈到即将到来的美国对等关税时 说。"周一美股期货持续下跌是日股走软的原因之一。" Saison资产管理公司的投资组合经理Tetsuo Seshimo说："这是一种风险规避举措，因为人们担心，由于特朗普政府的政策（包括关税）的 ...

编 译 / 周 洲 设 计 / shelly 来 源 / 彭博社，日经新闻，金融时报，亚洲时代，法新社 特朗普亲手将全球汽车工业的钥匙送到了中国手上。 自4月2日起，美国将对进口汽车开始征收25%的关税。这无异于朝着还没有被中国完全主导的新能 源汽车产业链砍了重重一斧头。此举将重挫日韩汽车及电池、零部件企业。 这两个国家对电动汽车的发展至关重要，因为韩国和日本的公司2024年生产了超过1/4的电动汽车 电池，使它们成为唯一能和中国分庭抗礼的对手。美国和欧洲企业几乎不占任何份额——本月初最 有力的竞争对手瑞典电池一哥Northvolt AB破产了。 如果想让制造业工作岗位回流美国腹地，打击这两个亚洲盟友是一种奇怪的做法。 2023年，韩国是美国新项目最多的投资国，一共签署了215亿美元的绿地工厂投资协议。与此同 时，日本花了几十年时间在美国组建了最大的外国直接投资资产组合，资产规模达7830亿美元，约 占其总投资的15%。 前总统拜登推动建立属于美国本土的清洁能源供应链，为美国和日韩的盟友关系增添了助力。 韩国三杰LG新能源、三星SDI和SK On已承诺投资540亿美元，建了从密歇根州南部到佐治亚州一 共15家 ...