Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026, with new economic drivers emerging to offset the drag from the real estate sector [217][218]. - Globally, the policy in 2026 will revolve around the shift of policy focus, the return of fiscal expansion, and the maintenance of monetary easing, forming a new pattern of "policy re - balance" [94]. - In the bond market, the bullish expectation is loosening in 2026. With the reasonable and abundant capital, the stable economy, the moderate rise of inflation, and the cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound [176][270][271]. - In the stock index futures market, new quality productive forces will still be the core driver. The technology theme market may continue, and if the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the style switch between large - and small - cap stocks may occur [282]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Go with the Trend - **Economic Aggregate**: Considering the structural constraints in the next decade, China's potential economic growth rate may decline year by year. To connect with the 2035 vision, the GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5% in the first three years of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8]. - **Economic Structure** - **Consumption**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate. China's household consumption rate has room for improvement, and the government will take measures such as income increase, burden reduction, and supply - side reform to boost consumption [13][24]. - **Industry**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing scientific and technological self - reliance. New policies will promote high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and the development of new quality productive forces [30]. - **Demand Growth**: The driving force of economic growth is shifting from investment to consumption. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the central government needs to increase fiscal leverage to solve the problems in real estate inventory reduction. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment need to maintain reasonable growth and improve efficiency [32][35]. - **Inflation**: With demand - side stimulus for consumption, supply - side "anti - involution" to improve efficiency, and the central bank's support for a reasonable rise in prices, inflation is expected to bottom out and rise in 2026 [7][89]. Big - Category Assets: Fiscal and Monetary Combinations Take Effect - **Global Macro Review**: In 2025, the global macro - economy fluctuated sharply under the influence of "Trump Policy 2.0". In 2026, the global policy will focus on the shift of policy focus, fiscal expansion, and monetary easing [95][103]. - **Overseas Outlook** - **United States**: In 2026, the policy focus will shift to domestic issues. The economy is expected to recover moderately, with potential interest - rate cuts. However, fiscal sustainability remains a concern [120][133]. - **Eurozone**: In 2026, the ECB's significant interest - rate cuts may end. The eurozone economy will rely on fiscal expansion and external investment, and the growth rate is expected to be around 1.2% [134][135]. - **Japan**: In 2026, Japan will implement a combination of fiscal expansion and moderate interest - rate hikes. If it can balance fiscal and monetary policies, the economy may achieve a stable growth [140][141]. - **2026 Big - Category Assets Outlook**: In 2026, with the decline of global economic policy uncertainty, the risk appetite of the market is likely to continue to recover. Risk assets such as stocks may rise, while the prices of safe - haven assets may adjust. The demand for commodities will be affected by the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus [161]. Treasury Bond Futures: Increasingly Negative Factors, Shaky Bullish Expectations - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the bond market showed a sideways and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as tight funds, tariff disturbances, the rise of risk appetite due to "anti - involution", and the decline of interest - rate cut expectations [176][183]. - **2026 Market Analysis Logic** - **Capital**: The central bank's liquidity management system will ensure that the capital in 2026 remains reasonably abundant [233][235]. - **Economy**: The macro - policy will continue to support stable growth, and the economy will remain stable [199][270]. - **Inflation**: With the promotion of consumption and "anti - involution" policies, CPI is expected to rise moderately, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow [262][265]. - **Monetary Policy**: The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, but interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, with an expected cut range of 10 - 20BP in 2026 [242]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will remain active in 2026, with an expected narrow - sense budget deficit rate of around 4% and a broad - sense budget deficit rate of 8.3% [258][259]. - **Market Outlook**: In 2026, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound. The reasonable and abundant capital is a support, while the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts pose constraints [271][273]. Stock Index Futures: New Quality Productive Forces Remain the Core Driver - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the A - share market rose significantly, mainly driven by the technology theme. The overseas and domestic markets both contributed to the rise, but the cycle and consumption sectors were still under pressure [282][283][294]. - **2026 Market Outlook** - **Global Technology Market**: There are debates about whether the current technology market has a bubble. However, the upstream manufacturing enterprises have stable performance expectations, the Fed is likely to continue to cut interest rates in the first quarter, and the Chinese technology industry also has fundamental support [337][346][350]. - **Style Switch**: The style switch from growth to value is not likely to occur in the first half of 2026. If the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the ROE of the stock index may stabilize and rise, and the style switch may happen [358][367][368]. - **Futures and Options Market Features** - **Basis**: The basis of small - cap index futures is at a high level, and the roll - over cost has also increased. The basis of large - cap index futures is mainly affected by dividends [372]. - **Volatility**: The historical and implied volatilities of the index were high in 2025. At the beginning of 2026, strategies for increasing volatility should be considered [383]. - **Market Strategies**: In 2026, the excess returns of index - enhancement and neutral strategies are relatively optimistic, but attention should be paid to the potential beta retracement [389].

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November continued to rise month-on-month for the second consecutive month, with the year-on-year decline stabilizing compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year declines since August [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing PPI - Consumption upgrade is driving price increases, with notable price rises in sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The price of sports balls manufacturing increased by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month [1][3]. - The development of emerging industries is positive, with accelerated industrial transformation towards intelligence and sustainability. In November, the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling increased by 7.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. Prices for graphite and carbon products rose by 3.8%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices increased by 1.7% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Policy Implications - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with the year-on-year price declines for photovoltaic equipment and components, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles narrowing by 2.0, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [2][4]. - The current PPI is still declining year-on-year, and further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for a reasonable price recovery. Future strategies include expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic circulation, and improving supply-demand relationships to promote reasonable price recovery and enhance business operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The letter from Huang Ping, Chairman of Guangdong Youkai Technology Co., highlights the detrimental effects of vicious competition in the detergent industry, where low-quality products with less than 5% active ingredient content are capturing market share through low prices, putting quality products at a disadvantage [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The phenomenon of "involution" is causing irrational competition across various industries, leading to intensified price wars, shrinking profit margins, reduced innovation investment, and rising quality and safety risks [1][2] - Over 20 national and local industry associations have publicly called for a "counter-involution" approach, addressing issues in sectors such as steel, automotive, photovoltaic, catering, finance, and logistics [2] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Companies like China Resources Beer have closed 40 factories and reduced over 5 million tons of redundant capacity, emphasizing a shift from "scale supremacy" to focusing on "good enterprises, good products, and good brands" [3] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for efficient market operation and removing barriers to fair competition, which is crucial for high-quality development [2] Group 3: Innovation Focus - Traditional manufacturing must break free from path dependence and scale bottlenecks by leveraging technology and innovation, as highlighted by companies like Weiqiao Chuangye Group, which collaborates with research institutions and utilizes AI for product development [4] - New Hope Group has innovated in the dairy industry by utilizing cold chain logistics and AI to ensure fresh products reach consumers quickly, demonstrating the importance of innovation in meeting consumer demands [4][5] Group 4: Brand Value - In a market with information asymmetry, low-quality products often mislead consumers, necessitating a focus on rebuilding trust in "quality for price" mechanisms to enhance user experience and brand value [6] - The shift in consumer preferences towards personalized and emotionally resonant experiences indicates that businesses must transition from merely providing functional value to creating meaningful connections with users [7] Group 5: Global Expansion - The construction of a unified national market should promote an open market that encourages companies to expand globally, alleviating domestic competition pressures and enhancing competitiveness in international markets [8] - Companies like Jack Technology and Miniso are successfully implementing global strategies that integrate local insights with global aesthetics, demonstrating the potential for Chinese brands to resonate with international consumers [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The collective sentiment among industry leaders emphasizes that companies must focus on innovation, brand building, and global engagement to escape internal competition and drive China's economy towards high-quality development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of "involution" in various industries, highlighting the detrimental effects of irrational competition and price wars on quality, innovation, and market stability. It emphasizes the need for a unified national market to promote high-quality development and break free from this cycle of competition [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The washing powder industry is facing severe issues due to low-quality products with less than 5% active ingredient content capturing market share through low prices, putting quality products at a disadvantage [1]. - Industries from steel to solar energy are experiencing intensified price wars, leading to compressed profit margins and reduced innovation investments, which in turn increases quality and safety risks [1][2]. - Over 20 national and local industry associations have publicly called for a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement, indicating a widespread recognition of the problem across sectors such as steel, automotive, solar, catering, finance, and logistics [3]. Group 2: Solutions and Strategies - To address the structural issues of involution, a collaborative approach between government and market forces is necessary, focusing on supply-side structural reforms [3]. - Companies like China Resources Beer have closed 40 factories and reduced over 5 million tons of redundant capacity, demonstrating a shift from a "scale-first" mentality to prioritizing quality and brand development [3]. - Innovation is crucial for traditional manufacturing to break free from path dependence and scale limitations, with companies encouraged to collaborate with research institutions and invest in new technologies [4][5]. Group 3: Brand and Market Positioning - The article highlights the importance of rebuilding trust in quality and value, as low-quality products often mislead consumers in an information-asymmetric market [6]. - Companies are urged to focus on user experience and brand value, shifting from a transactional approach to one that emphasizes emotional and meaningful connections with consumers [6]. - The narrative of "Chinese manufacturing" is evolving, with domestic brands gaining recognition and demand both locally and internationally, reflecting a shift in consumer perception [6]. Group 4: Global Expansion - The construction of a unified national market is seen as a means to create a fairer and more efficient competitive environment, encouraging companies to expand globally to alleviate domestic competition pressures [7]. - Companies like Jack Technology are establishing production bases in various regions to cater to local markets, while Miniso emphasizes cultural integration in its global strategy [7]. - The article concludes that companies must focus on innovation, brand strength, and global outreach to escape internal competition and contribute to high-quality economic development [8].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 美委紧张局势加剧，美国扣押了一艘戴有约185万桶委内瑞拉重质原油的邮轮，消息并未引发市场关 于供应中断的担忧。俄罗斯11月海运石油产品出口量仅比10月下降0.8%，炼油厂完成检修后复工抵 消了黑海等燃料出口量下降的影响。驱动油价核心因素仍围绕供应过剩压力,她缘消息频发下油价 波动加剧,但波动幅度及持续性正呈现弱化趋势。 (责金属) 周五美国科技股下跌带动金融市场剧烈波动,贵金属冲高回落。上周美联储如期降息同时宣布购债 计划,鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,会议释放中性偏鸽信号略超预期。短期市场波动放大,黄金关注 历史高点位置阻力,如果实现突破则贵金属近期强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 上周五夜盘铜价短线回调快，沪铜盘中减仓暂时关注MA10日均线表现。目前仓量仍高，周内关注美 国前期迟滞公布的经济指标与日本央行动作。多单减仓观望。 (铝) 周五美股下跌带动商品市场整体走弱,沪铝跌破22000元。近期铝市基本面矛盾有限,社库小幅下 降,现货反馈尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势维持,短期关注40日线和布林线中轨位置支撑。 (铸造铝合金) 废 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [7] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [10] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [10] - Live pigs: Weakening [10] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is declining month-on-month, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit management system for steel exports will limit exports and negatively impact raw materials. It is advisable to look for opportunities to sell on rebounds [2]. - The coal - coking market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information in the Central Economic Work Conference. The permit management system for steel exports has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, there is still downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and some participants are worried about policy reversals, which supports coal and coke prices [2]. - The rebar market has low downstream demand, and winter restocking has not yet started. It remains in an oscillating state. The core lies in steel demand, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by over 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent weakening in prices. Processing orders are in a downturn, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has been decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on the progress of cold repairs [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of major Chinese economic indicators is better than expected. In 2026, policies will be introduced to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the medium - term trend remains positive [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute has become prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support for gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [7]. - The log market has seen an increase in port shipments, but the demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure may gradually ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - The pulp market's spot price has weakened. Although cost support has increased, the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. The price may return to a supply - demand - driven oscillating state after the digestion of positive news [8]. - The oil and fat market has uncertainties in demand due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and weak exports. Although there is support from raw material costs and seasonal palm oil production cuts, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - The soybean meal market has a relatively loose global supply. The US soybean has no export advantage, and the market expects a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a stable overall supply, but the demand growth is limited. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in some regions due to weather. The demand side is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The PX market has a high supply, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating. The PTA market's cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand has improved, but it will deteriorate seasonally. The MEG market has a long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, new global mine production will increase significantly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit system for steel exports is negative for raw materials. Look for selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by policy information and the steel export policy, the market has shifted from supply - side expectations to demand - side concerns. However, downstream restocking demand and policy concerns support prices [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and winter restocking has not started. It oscillates, and the core lies in steel demand. Steel prices depend on production cuts and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: Prices are weakening, processing orders are few, demand is insufficient. Although inventory is decreasing, it is higher than last year. Cold - repair progress determines price trends [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, it is in a weak state [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The financial data in November showed good performance, and the central economic work meeting released positive signals. The market's bullish sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is slightly rebounding. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market is affected by monetary policy [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases becoming crucial. The US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese central bank's gold - buying support prices. The Fed's interest - rate policy is a short - term factor [7]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias [7]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and出库量 are increasing, but demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. Supply pressure may ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Pulp: Spot prices have weakened, cost support has increased, but paper industry demand is weak. The price may return to an oscillating state [8]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable, supply changes little, and demand is weak. It is expected to weakly oscillate [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: There are uncertainties in demand due to policies and exports. Although there is cost support, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal: Global supply is loose, the US soybean has no export advantage, and South American harvest expectations are high. The domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and the average weekly price is expected to decline [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Polyester - PX: Supply is high, downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating [12]. - PTA: Cost is unstable, short - term supply - demand has improved but will deteriorate seasonally. The price follows the cost [12]. - MEG: Long - term inventory build - up pressure exists, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. - PR: The market may stop falling and stabilize [12]. - PF: The price may oscillate and consolidate [12].

Core Viewpoint - The China petrochemical industry index showed a significant upward trend, with key stocks like Tongcheng New Materials rising over 6%, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, the China petrochemical industry index opened low but quickly rose, currently up approximately 0.85% [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's upward movement, highlighting the value in the sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guohai Securities suggests that the trend of "anti-involution" may lead to a revaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with future measures likely to significantly slow global chemical industry capacity expansion [1]. - The Chinese chemical industry is characterized by abundant net operating cash flow, which could lead to a substantial increase in potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows [1]. - Changes on the supply side are expected to halt the decline in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks likely to exhibit both high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Key areas of focus include petrochemicals, coal chemicals, organic silicon, phosphate chemicals, and glyphosate [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China petrochemical industry index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the index, positioning them to benefit from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated capacity [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 领先 2025 年 12 月 5 日 新能源与公用事业行业 2026 年展望：行业"反内卷"之下多晶硅初见曙光，大储需求超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 12/24 4/25 8/25 12/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 恒生指数 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ...

Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal downstream is about to start seasonal restocking, while thermal coal downstream restocking is nearly complete. Current coking coal inventory at sample steel mills is 7.95 million tons, down 0.45% week-on-week, while independent coking plants hold 8.83 million tons, up 3.02% week-on-week. This indicates that coking production has begun seasonal restocking, and steel mills are expected to follow suit [1] - Major power generation groups have coal inventories of 14.23 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week, indicating that power plants have largely completed restocking and are entering a procurement off-season. The number of vessels at ports in the Bohai Rim has significantly decreased, reflecting reduced procurement demand from power plants [1] - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports is 29.08 million tons, up 5.07% week-on-week, suggesting that inventory pressure is gradually shifting to the midstream sector. Short-term coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, while thermal coal prices may still face some pressure [1] Key Events - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a special meeting on December 12, emphasizing that central enterprises should ensure a good finish to this year's work and a strong start for next year. The meeting highlighted the need to focus on core responsibilities and resist "involution" competition, aiming for development driven by value creation [1] Price Comparison and Valuation - As of December 12, the ratio of coking coal futures closing price to the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal is 1.20, which is at a 6.7% percentile level since 2013, close to the historical low of 0.98 recorded in June 2025. This indicates that current coking coal prices are significantly lower than thermal coal prices [2] - The CITIC coal industry index PB is 1.43 times, with a ratio of 0.80 times compared to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, both at 57% and 42% percentile levels since 2013, indicating that the coal sector's valuation is at a historical median level [2] Investment Opportunities - From a seasonal perspective, downstream steel mills and coking plants are expected to gradually start restocking, which will support coking coal prices in the near term [3] - This year's restocking by steel mills and coking plants has been delayed, primarily due to downstream pessimism regarding future coking coal prices. However, with the catalyst of "anti-involution" messages, downstream demand may shift from wait-and-see to procurement [3] - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal is nearing historical lows, suggesting that any slight disturbance could lead to a significant rebound in coking coal prices [2][3]