1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In a neutral scenario, the terminal demand for steel in 2026 is expected to be roughly flat year-on-year. Domestic demand will see limited changes, while external demand will remain a significant driver. The supply-side regulation, especially capacity reduction, will be a long-term task. Steel prices may gradually bottom out through oscillations in 2026, but the upward space and elasticity are still insufficient. The main operating ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coil主力 contracts are estimated to be 2950 - 3400 yuan/ton and 3050 - 3550 yuan/ton respectively. There are still risks of market decline in the first half of the year [1][3][143] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Market Review: Center of Gravity Moved Down, Narrow Oscillation - In 2025, steel prices showed a narrow oscillation pattern with a reduced fluctuation range and significantly lower volatility compared to the previous two years. The price center of gravity declined, but the downward trend was not smooth. In the first half of the year, steel prices oscillated downward due to factors such as US reciprocal tariffs and a significant weakening of coal and coke costs. Starting from late June, steel prices rebounded rapidly in a short period driven by low inventory support and "anti-involution" policy expectations. However, due to the suppression of real demand and the weakening of export orders, the price was under obvious upward pressure. After late July, steel prices gradually entered a stage of oscillatory decline, and the entire fourth quarter was almost in a state of narrow-range fluctuation [16] - The core reasons for the decline in volatility are twofold: 1) The increase in the weight of external demand led to a significant compression of the upward and downward space of steel prices. The increase in external demand and manufacturing demand provided a more solid cost support, and exports also provided a more obvious bottom support when domestic steel prices fell. However, when domestic prices rose to a level where export order-taking willingness weakened, it also formed an obvious upward pressure. 2) The overall supply-demand expectation gap in the market was not prominent. Although the reciprocal tariffs and "anti-involution" policies in the second and third quarters led to obvious changes in market expectations, they had limited impact on real supply and demand, making it difficult for the market to continuously trade on the changes at the expectation level [17] 3.2 Demand: Domestic Demand Calm, External Demand Still Supportive 3.2.1 Domestic Incremental Policy Expectations Insufficient, Supply-side Policies May Strengthen - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference indicated that with the decline of external risks, the need to introduce incremental policies to hedge against the decline of external demand has decreased. The conference more clearly pointed out the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the domestic market and emphasized "optimizing supply", suggesting that policies will strengthen efforts on the supply side in 2026 and significantly speed up the construction of a unified national market [31] - In terms of fiscal and monetary policies, the 2026 fiscal policy and infrastructure investment will be relatively conservative. Monetary policy will focus on promoting a moderate rebound in inflation. The policy on "two new" and "two important" areas will shift from "strengthening" to "optimizing", and the real estate market will continue the tone of "supporting without boosting" [32] 3.2.2 Building Material Demand Hard to Improve, Focus on Fund Allocation Rhythm - In 2025, the real estate demand continued to be weak, and the decline in sales widened again. In 2026, the decline in real estate sales may continue, and the front-end investment is expected to continue to decline significantly, which will continue to drag down the steel demand [36][37] - In 2026, the expectation for infrastructure demand is not optimistic. In 2025, the fixed asset investment growth rate of traditional infrastructure declined significantly, mainly due to tight funds. In 2026, the fiscal policy will focus on structural optimization, and the scale of investment in traditional infrastructure is expected to be limited [46][47] 3.2.3 Manufacturing Demand Maintains Resilience, but Growth Rate Still at Risk of Decline - In 2025, the strong manufacturing demand was an important factor supporting the terminal demand for steel. The manufacturing PMI showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The "two new" related replacement demand and strong exports were important factors supporting the steel demand in the manufacturing industry. However, there were no obvious signs of entering the replenishment cycle [59] - In 2026, the steel demand in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to grow, but the overall growth rate may decline significantly compared to 2025. The "two new" policies will focus on optimization, and the incremental funds are not clear. The demand driven by "replacing the old with the new" may face problems such as demand front-loading and marginal decline in subsidy effects [59] - In 2026, the external demand for manufacturing terminals is expected to remain strong. In 2025, despite the impact of Sino-US trade frictions, the exports of core manufacturing terminal products continued to rise. With the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the increase in demand from emerging markets, indirect exports are expected to continue to be an important driving force for steel demand in 2026 [73] 3.2.4 Direct Exports: Impact of License System to be Observed, Medium and Long-term Outlook Depends on Overseas Demand - Since January 1, 2026, the export license management system for some steel products will be implemented, which may impose certain policy constraints on the compliance of export entities, the variety structure, and quality of exported steel. However, the specific implementation scale and license issuance situation still need to be observed [88] - In 2025, the direct exports of steel and semi-finished products showed an obvious characteristic of "trading volume at the expense of price", and the net export volume is expected to reach about 125 million tons. The export variety and destination structures have changed significantly. Overseas trade frictions continue to increase, and the pressure from EU carbon tariffs and overseas anti-dumping in 2026 remains high [89][90] - In the medium and long term, the key factors affecting steel exports are the strength of overseas demand and the speed of overseas steel supply increase. Based on the forecast of the World Steel Association, the global crude steel demand will continue to increase slightly by about 1% in 2026. Although the overall scale of steel exports in 2026 is not expected to be pessimistic, the export in the first half of the year may be suppressed if the regional price difference cannot be widened [105] 3.3 Supply: "Anti-involution" Policy Still Unclear, Cost-based Pricing Pattern Remains 3.3.1 Implementation of Steel Industry "Anti-involution" Expected to be a Long-term Process - The market has high expectations for the "anti-involution" policy in the steel industry, mainly due to the long-term low profitability of the steel industry and the need to stabilize the prices of upstream and midstream products in the black industry chain to prevent the decline of PPI [110] - The implementation of supply-side policies in the steel industry is difficult to be as rapid and drastic as in the 2016 cycle. Possible directions for capacity reduction in the future include the full completion of ultra-low emission transformation and the verification of steel production capacity and overproduction control similar to that in the coal industry. However, there are still many uncertainties and difficulties in implementation [111][112] - In 2026, the market is expected to trade the change in production volume from a more market-oriented rather than administrative perspective. The decline in production volume is more likely to be due to terminal demand factors, and the improvement of steel mill profits requires substantial capacity compression [113] 3.3.2 Driving Force for Steel Mill Profit Improvement Still Depends on Capacity Reduction - Under the neutral scenario, the profit improvement space for steel products in 2026 will still be limited, and the industry will generally remain around the break-even point. In 2025, the profit of steel mills showed a pattern of initial improvement and then compression, and the electric furnace was in a loss state for most of the time [121] - In 2026, it is still difficult to provide profits for all production capacities. The marginal supply will mostly be in a loss state, and the gross profit of blast furnaces in the low-cost area will be difficult to break through the 200 yuan/ton range. The substantial reduction of production capacity is the key to breaking through the profit center and space [122] 3.3.3 Steel Price Valuation Still Anchored to Cost, Market Contradiction Focuses on Coils - In 2026, the overall steel price valuation is expected to continue to be anchored to the cost. The increase in iron ore supply is at risk, but the cost center may not move down significantly. The coking coal price is unlikely to fall below the 2025 low. The steel price is expected to be difficult to fall below the 2025 low without a significant weakening of demand. The upward movement of steel prices will be restricted by the inability to provide profits for all production capacities and the export order situation [132] - For the steel price valuation to break through upward in 2026, two conditions are required: the substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic steel industry and the improvement of real demand driven by overseas loose monetary and fiscal policies with smooth price and cost transmission [132] - Since the second half of 2024, the actual supply of building materials has decreased significantly, and the rebar inventory level has dropped significantly. In 2026, this situation is expected to continue, and rebar may be in a relatively tight state periodically. Currently, the inventory of coils and non-five major varieties is relatively high and the de-stocking is slow. Therefore, attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure and contradiction of coils and non-five major steel products in 2026 [133][140] 3.4 2026 Steel Supply and Demand Outlook and Market Trading Logic - Under the neutral scenario, the supply and demand contradiction in the steel market in 2026 is still not prominent. The accelerated release of overseas liquidity is one of the most important macro logics, which is expected to push up inflation, but the boost to real demand and the smoothness of price transmission need to be observed. The domestic demand will see limited substantial changes, and the supply-side regulation related to "anti-involution" will be a relatively long-term task. The steel price may gradually bottom out through oscillations in 2026, but the upward space and elasticity are still insufficient [143] - In the first half of 2026, the market still faces downward risks. The actual implementation of the steel export license management system is yet to be confirmed, and the real demand in spring is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory risk in spring. In the second half of 2026, the probability of inflation rising and domestic incremental policy implementation will increase, and the "anti-involution" policy path may become clearer, which may drive up the steel price and profit [144]

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "national subsidy" policy for consumer goods trade-in is confirmed for the upcoming year, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "Two New" policy focuses on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in, significantly impacting ordinary consumers [2]. - The government plans to increase the funding scale for the "Two New" policy to 500 billion yuan by 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods trade-in, marking a 150 billion yuan increase from the previous year [2]. - The policy has shown significant effectiveness in promoting consumption, expanding investment, stabilizing growth, and improving living standards [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "Two New" policy has been a strong driver for expanding domestic demand, with consumer goods trade-in generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people from January to November this year [5]. - The trade-in of automobiles exceeded 11.2 million units, while home appliances saw over 12.8 million units traded in, indicating a robust market response [5]. - The policy has also contributed to a 31.2% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales, reflecting ongoing industrial vitality [5]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized optimizing the implementation of the "Two New" policy, including the use of personal consumption loans and service industry loans to support consumption [6]. - The 2025 consumer goods trade-in policy will expand to include additional categories such as smartphones and various home appliances, enhancing the scope of subsidies [7]. - Future adjustments to the policy may include expanding subsidies to the service consumption sector to further stimulate consumer demand and economic growth [7].

钢材年报 2025 年 12 月 钢材年报 2025-12 摘要： 2025 年，钢材价格先抑后扬再回落，上半年受海外征加关税和反倾销政 策影响，市场情绪受到扰动，钢价承压，在反内卷政策带动下钢价短暂反弹， 随后需求疲弱旺季不及预期再度回落。钢厂利润改善，钢厂生产仍有积极性， 铁水产量同比往年高位。螺纹钢产量累计同比往年下降，需求较疲弱，终端房 地产仍有拖累。热卷产量维持高位，两新政策拉动消费，制造业受到支撑，热 卷需求仍有韧性，库存保持高位。宏观方面，中央经济工作会议提出要继续实 施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，增强宏观政策取向 一致性和有效性。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给， 鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 | | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证号： F03131526 风险因素：供给端减产，宏观变化，需求下行 1 需求下行 | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、20 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming economic strategy in China is on domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Experts indicate that the most pressing issue in China's economic operation is the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, suggesting that the evolution of supply-demand relationships will be a key observation point for economic development [1] - Zhang Bin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasizes the importance of breaking the negative transmission chain of demand insufficiency, advocating for policies that target "fast variables" like credit and investment to stimulate "slow variables" such as income and consumption [1] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, interprets the recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, indicating future policy directions [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent Central Economic Work Conference suggest a focus on integrating investments in both physical goods and human capital, with increased fiscal support expected in areas related to health, employment, and education [2] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial pillar for expanding domestic demand, with expectations that China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000 by the end of this year, paving the way for a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [2] Group 3 - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods, is recognized as a practical measure to boost consumption, with plans to optimize its implementation [2] - Suggestions for optimizing policy subsidies include focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments, such as building sports facilities and theaters, which can ultimately enhance consumer experiences [2] - The government has made positive strides in areas like childbirth and preschool education subsidies, indicating a promising start for future policies aimed at reducing living costs and promoting consumption growth [3]

人民日报海外版记者 李婕 新的一年，消费品以旧换新"国补"还会持续吗？ 近日召开的中央经济工作会议在明年经济工作重点任务中明确指出，优化"两新"政策实施。财政部 日前也在相关会议中提出，用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建 设、"两新"工作。这也进一步明确，明年"国补"将继续实施。 稳增长惠民生 "两新"，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，其中消费品以旧换新政策与普通消费者关系密 切。 根据国务院2024年印发的《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，消费品以旧换新主 要涉及汽车、家电以及家装厨卫等消费品。当前，我国耐用消费品市场规模居全球首位，已进入存量优 化阶段。通过实施消费品以旧换新政策，有利于激发升级消费需求，释放消费潜力。 2025年，"两新"政策加力扩围实施，支持该项工作的超长期特别国债资金规模增加至5000亿元。其 中，3000亿元用于支持消费品以旧换新，比上年增加1500亿元；2000亿元用于支持设备更新，比上年增 加500亿元。 上述财政部会议明确，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴 息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "national subsidy" policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs is confirmed for 2026, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment growth in the economy [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The central economic work conference emphasized the optimization of the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs [2][5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize various government bond funds and issue ultra-long-term special bonds to support these initiatives [2][3]. - The scale of funding for the "two new" policies will increase to 500 billion yuan in 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods trade-in, marking a 150 billion yuan increase from the previous year [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "two new" policies have significantly contributed to consumption, investment, and economic stability, promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - In the first three quarters, investment in equipment and tools increased by 14% year-on-year, contributing 2 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - The consumer goods trade-in program has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, with notable increases in the trade-in of automobiles and home appliances [6]. Group 3: Future Directions - The "national subsidy" policy will continue to evolve, with new categories of products added to the trade-in program, including digital devices and various home appliances [8]. - The implementation of personal consumption loans and service industry loans will be supported to enhance consumer demand and service supply [8]. - Future optimization of the "two new" policies may include expanding subsidies to the service consumption sector to further stimulate economic growth [8].

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming economic strategy in China is on domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Experts indicate that the most pressing issue in China's economic operation is the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, which will be a key factor in observing future economic developments [1] - Zhang Bin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences suggests that breaking the negative transmission chain of insufficient demand is crucial, advocating for policies that focus on changing "fast variables" like credit and investment to stimulate "slow variables" such as income and consumption [1] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, interprets the recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, indicating future policy directions [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent Central Economic Work Conference both stress the integration of investment in physical goods and human capital, with expected increased fiscal support for areas related to health, employment, and education [2] - Service consumption is identified as a key pillar for expanding domestic demand, with expectations that China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000 by the end of this year, paving the way for rapid growth in service consumption [2] Group 3 - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods, is recognized as a practical measure to boost consumption, with plans to optimize its implementation [2] - Suggestions for optimizing policy subsidies include focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments, such as sports facilities and theaters, which can ultimately enhance consumer experiences [2] - The government has made positive strides in areas like childbirth and preschool education subsidies, indicating a promising start for future policies aimed at reducing living costs and promoting consumption growth [3]

Consumption - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of 3%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption declined, with automotive sales down 6.6% and home appliances down 14.6% year-on-year[12] - Service consumption showed strong performance, driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with food-related items growing by 8% year-on-year[13] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, worsening from a previous decline of 6.8%[22] - Real estate development investment fell by 23.2% year-on-year in October, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments also saw declines of 6.7% and 12.1%, respectively[22] - Excluding real estate, project investment showed a cumulative growth of 1.7%, indicating that real estate investment dragged down overall investment by approximately 3 percentage points[22] Trade - In October, exports fell sharply with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, a drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous value of 8.3%[37] - Exports to the U.S. improved slightly, with a year-on-year growth of -25.2%, while exports to the EU and Africa saw significant declines of 13.3% and 46.0%, respectively[38] - The electronics sector maintained high growth, with integrated circuits growing by 26.9% year-on-year, while labor-intensive products experienced significant declines[37] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth slowed down, with the PMI index showing a downward trend, indicating a potential seasonal disturbance and tariff volatility[7] - The overall industrial profit growth rate slowed, with financial costs being a significant drag on performance[7] - Despite the slowdown, major industrial indices remained in the expansion zone, reflecting overall market optimism[7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, with core CPI continuing to rise, driven by strong food prices and holiday demand[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with prices in the non-ferrous metals sector increasing significantly[7] - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline in real estate development investment of 14.7% from January to October[7]

智通财经APP获悉，中国汽车流通协会发文称，12月厂商及经销商为冲刺年度目标将持续加码终端促销；同时部分春节前置购车需求也 开始逐步释放。对于首购车的消费者而言，新能源购置税优惠政策即将退坡，依然构成强烈的年末购车驱动力。然而考虑到业内普遍预 期"两新"政策明年将延续，加之车企新能源"购置税兜底"方案稳定预期的作用，部分置换需求转移至明年1月。综合上述因素，预计12月 终端消费市场将呈现温和回升态势，但难以形成显著的"翘尾"行情。综上因素，同时结合11月份的销量与12月上半月的经销商数据增速 水平，预计12月份全月乘用车终端销量235万辆左右。 2025年全年乘用车终端零售量预计达2355万，较2024年基本持平。 年末多地置换补贴政策收紧，车企对新能源"购置税兜底"的影响，消费者持币待购有所加剧，11月乘用车终端零售量低于预期，环比10 月市场销量出现小幅下降。 12月乘用车市场开局表现平淡。新能源购置税免征政策年底到期(2026年起减半)以及两新政策截止未能产生显著的"末班车效应"。由于多 地两新政策的补贴资金已基本耗尽，置换更新需求疲软，加之明年春节较晚、部分车企新能源"购置税兜底"补贴方案延续，消费者 ...

Core Insights - The central theme of the articles revolves around the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement subsidy policy and the upcoming changes in the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy in China, particularly in 2026 [1][3][11]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy in Beijing has been suspended, but the central government has indicated that the policy will continue in 2026 with further optimization [1][4][11]. - The NEV purchase tax exemption is set to expire soon, transitioning to a 50% reduction, which will increase the cost for consumers [3][9]. - The suspension of local subsidies has led to a decline in consumer enthusiasm, although interest has started to recover as the year-end approaches [4][6]. Consumer Behavior - Two main groups of consumers are currently in a state of "wait-and-see": those interested in locking in orders for models with tax guarantees and those waiting for the specifics of the new subsidy policy [7][12]. - The demand for vehicle replacements has diminished as many potential buyers have already made purchases during the subsidy period, leaving only those with less urgent needs [6][10]. Sales Performance - Recent data indicates a significant decline in vehicle sales, with a 32% year-on-year drop in retail sales during the first week of December [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that the upcoming policy changes may lead to further fluctuations in demand [11][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the subsidy levels for the "old-for-new" policy in 2026 will likely be reduced, which could impact market growth [11][12]. - Despite the anticipated challenges, the overall vehicle market is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory due to ongoing improvements in NEV technology and competitive pricing [13].