Core Viewpoint - The recent significant adjustments in the new consumption sector, particularly among leading companies, indicate a potential shift in market dynamics, questioning whether this is the beginning of a breakdown in the "hugging" phenomenon or merely a pause in the upward trend [4][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Policy Drivers - The new consumption trend began in March 2023, with various sectors like jewelry, cosmetics, and pet products experiencing substantial growth, leading to a phenomenon of extreme market "hugging" [3][4]. - Recent high-level declines in leading new consumption stocks suggest a potential unraveling of this "hugging" phenomenon, driven by changing market expectations and macroeconomic policies [4][14]. - The Chinese government's shift in policy focus from investment to consumption is a significant driver, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics and Sector Analysis - In the pet sector, companies like Zhongchong and Guibao have shown impressive revenue growth rates of 18.9% and 27% respectively from 2020 to 2024, with net profit growth rates of 30.7% and 54% [6]. - In the jewelry sector, Laopu Gold reported a staggering revenue and net profit growth of 166% and 254% respectively in 2024, while Chaohongji saw a year-on-year growth of 25.4% and 44.4% in Q1 [6][7]. - The overall jewelry sector had been undervalued for years, which contributed to the recent price surges [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation Concerns - The recent decline in new consumption stocks is partly attributed to the market's adjustment to high valuations, with Laopu Gold's PE ratio exceeding 100 times and Chaohongji's surpassing 50 times [14][16]. - The market's enthusiasm for new consumption stocks has led to inflated valuations, raising concerns about sustainability and potential corrections [16][17]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The potential for a shift towards technology sectors is highlighted, driven by upcoming tariff negotiations and significant corporate mergers in the tech space [18][19]. - The upcoming Shanghai Lujiazui Forum may introduce financial policies that could positively impact technology stocks, suggesting a possible transition in market focus [19][20]. - Despite the potential for a rebound in technology stocks, caution is advised due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures and reduced expectations for overall market performance [20][21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the missed investment opportunities in sectors such as small-cap stocks, new consumption, technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to mediocre returns in equity markets [1][3] - A significant error was made by over-investing in industrial commodities, which have seen substantial declines [1][2] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of a scientific framework and independent research to avoid being swayed by market narratives and to maintain a stable value assessment system [4][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a deeper understanding of foreign capital behavior, which has been a shortcoming in the past [13][15] - It stresses the importance of selecting stocks with alpha rather than merely capturing industry beta, indicating a shift towards more rigorous stock selection criteria [15][16] - The focus on safety and risk-reward ratios in investment decisions is emphasized, with a preference for low PB and high dividend yield stocks [18][20] Group 3 - The article outlines the current investment strategy, which includes maintaining a significant allocation to gold as a strategic hedge against deflation and currency fluctuations [27][28] - It discusses the outlook for government bonds, indicating a preference for short-term holdings due to the negative carry associated with longer-term positions [29] - The article notes that many industrial commodities are trading below marginal costs, leading to a cautious approach in this sector while monitoring for potential opportunities [30][31] Group 4 - The long-term equity holdings are primarily focused on companies with cyclical characteristics, high dividends, and low price-to-book ratios, forming the basis of the investment portfolio [32][33] - Recent adjustments in the portfolio include a complete reduction of bank stocks, reflecting a strategic shift in response to market conditions [34]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved following a phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, with expectations for further discussions and outcomes from upcoming meetings [1] Market Performance - The stock markets experienced a rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing all moving average resistances and approaching the mid-May high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded but remains under pressure from the 60-day moving average [1] - Average daily trading volume in both markets increased to approximately 11.8 billion, a significant rise compared to the previous week [1] Sector Focus - Market hotspots this week were primarily in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector and upstream non-ferrous metals industry [1] - The investment style leaned towards technology and small-cap stocks, which led the gains [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index is attempting to challenge the mid-May high after a period of downward adjustment [1] - The index had shown a pattern of simultaneous lower highs and lows but found support at the 60-day moving average, leading to a new wave of rebound [1] - There are still strong technical resistances near last year's fourth-quarter trading volume concentration and this year's first-quarter market peak, warranting ongoing observation [1]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

6月6日，A股早盘窄幅震荡，超2900只个股下跌，半日成交额7467亿，较上个交易日放量324亿。截至 收盘，沪指跌0.06%，深成指跌0.18%，创业板指跌0.48%。 消息面上，因特朗普与马斯克关系恶化，隔夜美股高开低走，三大指数集体收跌，大型科技股多数下 跌，特斯拉暴跌逾14%市值跌破万亿。 盘面上，市场热点轮动较快，煤炭、银行等高股息风格活跃，大有能源涨停；有色金属板块走强，白银 方向领涨，湖南白银等涨停；化工板块走高，氟化工方向领涨，三美股份、巨化股份双双创历史新高； 固态电池概念拉升，海辰药业20%涨停；存储芯片概念异动，好上好涨停；此外，军工、建筑装饰等板 块盘中均轮动表现。下跌方面，IP经济、宠物经济等新消费概念走低，足球概念回调，游戏、汽车等板 块跌幅居前。 展望后市，中国银河认为，短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，关注外部关税的变化与国内政策的落地节 奏。 热门板块 1、有色金属板块走强 有色金属板块走强，白银方向领涨，白银有色、湖南白银、厦门信达等涨停，兴业银锡、盛达资源等跟 涨。 点评：消息面上，周四现货白银一度暴涨4.5%，触及每盎司36美元整数关口的上方，创下2012年2月以 来最高水 ...

消费方面，摩根士丹利预计家庭消费实际增速将于今明两年分别达到4.9%及4.6%。消费回暖或主要得 益于以旧换新，其扩容之后将包含更多的非耐用品。考虑到国补的3000亿元人民币额度，叠加上一些地 方的配套补贴，总补贴规模或达到家庭消费的0.7%左右。此外，定向的生育补贴、"消费瓶颈"（如汽车 牌照限制）减少，以及对服务业的信贷支持也将温和提振消费。 股市方面，报告称，鉴于股本回报率、近期盈利、地缘政治紧张局势缓和等带来的结构性改善，摩根士 丹利上调中国股指的目标点位。摩根士丹利2月上调中国权重的主要原因，现在仍然成立：企业自救和 股东回报提升使股本回报率触底回升，估值区间上移，特别是离岸股票市场；政府对私营部门的支持得 到确认；AI、科技、智能制造领域出现了能够引领全球技术竞争的科技领袖。 摩根士丹利研究部近日发布中国经济和股市年中展望报告表示，上调对2025年中国经济增速预期以及中 国股指目标。 该报告显示，摩根士丹利将今明两年的经济增速预测分别从此前的4.2%和4.0%，上调至4.5%和4.2%。 外部冲击的缓和，也降低了增量政策出台的紧迫性。现行的政策框架旨在为经济托底，重视科技创新， 稳健推进经济再平衡 ...

Group 1 - Education, technology, and talent are foundational and strategic supports for building a modern socialist country, emphasizing the need for an integrated approach to their development [1][3] - The relationship among education, technology, and talent forms a cyclical system of knowledge production, application, and reproduction, where education is the foundation for technological advancement and economic revitalization [2][3] - The coupling effect among education, technology, and talent is increasingly significant in the context of global technological innovation, necessitating a coordinated mechanism for their efficient operation [3][4] Group 2 - Various regions and departments are implementing the central government's decisions to promote a collaborative and efficient operational mechanism for education, technology, and talent, with examples such as Beijing's regulations on technology transfer and Hunan's policy framework for R&D centers [4] - Challenges remain in the education, technology, and talent sectors, including a lack of coordination and resource allocation issues, which hinder the formation of an effective integrated mechanism [4][5] - The need for comprehensive reforms in the education, technology, and talent systems is highlighted, with a focus on enhancing leadership, systemic integration, and collaboration across departments [5][6] Group 3 - The reform in the education sector should focus on enhancing systemic, holistic, and collaborative approaches, ensuring that foundational education supports innovation from an early stage [6][7] - The technology system reform aims to strengthen national strategic technological capabilities and improve the efficiency of research institutions and innovation systems [6][7] - Talent development reforms must eliminate institutional barriers that restrict talent vitality, with an emphasis on establishing diverse evaluation standards for different types of talent [7]

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025年5月26日至2025年5月30日）A股市场先在中美贸易谈判缓和中放量走高，随后 陷入震荡调整。近期板块轮动速度加快，行情震荡格局尚未改变。 权益市场观察 创新药利好频出： 上周创新药板块继续上涨，主要由近期诸多利好事件驱动。市场热度可能已达到阶段性高 点，后续需要关注潜力BD落地情况、重点产品阶段数据兑现情况，一旦强逻辑支撑趋弱，创新药的阶段行情可 能就将告一段落。 "新消费"扩散： 本轮"新消费"行情由龙头个股景气驱动扩散为贝塔行情，由潮玩、高端金饰公司扩散到港股新 上市茶饮，A股的宠物、美护等方向，近期"新消费"行情开始进入边缘扩散阶段。 科技回到"击球区"： 近期小微盘有阶段见顶迹象，TMT成交额占全A交易比重已经回落至相对低位，考虑到资 金承载能力和板块成长性，科技板块已到可寻找布局方向的阶段 公募基金市场动态： 2025年5月30日，上海证券交易所与中证指数公司公布优化上证380指数编制方案，并发 布上证580指数。本次优化及新发后，上交所形成"上证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the A - share market first rose on high volume due to the easing of Sino - US trade negotiations and then entered a volatile adjustment. The sector rotation speed has accelerated recently, and the volatile market pattern remains unchanged [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise last week, driven by multiple favorable events. However, the market heat may have reached a phased high, and the phased market of innovation drugs may end once the strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from the prosperity of leading stocks to a beta market, and has now entered the marginal spread stage, but its sustainability is uncertain [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage where layout directions can be explored, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume as a proportion of the total A - share trading volume has fallen to a relatively low level [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - The A - share market first rose on high volume and then oscillated last week. The WanDe All - A Index fell 0.02% for the whole week. The environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [11]. - As of May 30, the trading volume proportions of the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indexes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 19.59% and 33.26% respectively, both at 5 - year peak levels. Since 2020, the trading volume proportion of the CSI 2000 index has risen from less than 15% to over 30%, while that of the CSI 300 index has dropped from nearly 50% to less than 20%. The A - share market is a stock and shrinking market, and market participants are engaging in a stock game in small - and medium - cap stocks [11]. - The innovation drug sector continued to rise, driven by the approval of 11 innovative drugs from 8 Chinese companies on May 29 and important clinical data disclosed at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting from May 30 - June 3. However, the market heat may have reached a peak, and the phased market may end if strong logical support weakens [12]. - The "new consumption" market has spread from leading stocks to various directions such as new - listed Hong Kong - listed tea drinks, A - share pet and beauty care sectors. The market focus has shifted from pet food to non - liquor products, and the market has entered the marginal spread stage with uncertain sustainability [13]. - The technology sector has reached a stage for layout, as small - cap stocks show signs of peaking and the TMT trading volume proportion has declined. Upcoming industrial events in June may act as catalysts [14]. 3.1.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company optimized the compilation plan of the SSE 380 Index and launched the SSE 580 Index, forming a flagship broad - based index system of "SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, and SSE 580". The index system covers 50% of the number of Shanghai - listed securities and nearly 90% of the market value [15]. - The SSE index system has established an "integrated two - wing" index brand of "flagship broad - based + science and technology innovation + dividend", which is an important part of promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market [16]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Year - to - Date | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.12% | 1.45% | 4.59% | 5.44% | | Value Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.15% | 2.80% | 1.42% | 1.50% | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | 2.51% | 2.06% | - 0.17% | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | 0.94% | 9.74% | - 0.13% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | 3.78% | 6.65% | 23.08% | 6.62% | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.93% | 3.15% | 7.37% | 0.46% | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.01% | - 0.44% | 2.05% | 3.65% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.30% | - 0.95% | - 4.28% | - 8.90% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.81% | 3.01% | 4.22% | - 3.14% | [17] 3.2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred - The portfolio selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. Core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index [18]. 3.2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred - The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification [20]. 3.2.3 Balanced Stock Fund Preferred - Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth, and switch to stocks with higher cost - performance. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [21]. 3.2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred - The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunity of performance and valuation during a company's high - growth stage. The index is composed of 10 funds selected from active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [24]. 3.2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index [24]. 3.2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumption industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [29]. 3.2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Electronics, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [30]. 3.2.8 High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Construction, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index [34]. 3.2.9 Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and representative indexes (CITIC Petroleum & Petrochemical, etc.). An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index [36].

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market is experiencing a "small peak," with 89 funds launched in June, and some companies launching more than five funds [1] - Equity funds (mixed and stock types) continue to show strong issuance momentum, with 63 products launched in June, accounting for 70% of new products [1] - The recent "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" emphasizes the evaluation of fund companies based on investor returns, performance benchmarks, equity fund ratios, and research capabilities [1] - Nearly 60% of equity funds reported positive returns in the first half of the year, with over 30 products yielding returns exceeding 50% [1] Group 2 - The technology sector is a key focus for fund companies, with numerous technology-themed funds launched in June, including the Yongying Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index and others [1] - The proposed fund manager for the Yongying fund believes that the technology sector is experiencing a comprehensive explosion, presenting significant investment opportunities in new-generation information technology, biotechnology, and high-end equipment manufacturing [2]