Group 1 - President Trump has called for a reshuffle of the Federal Reserve Board, threatening to dismiss member Lisa Cook if she does not resign voluntarily [1][2][3] - Lisa Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, has stated she will not resign under pressure and is preparing to address questions regarding her financial history [2] - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with appointments made by the President and confirmed by the Senate; currently, there are ongoing efforts to increase the number of Trump-appointed members [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut, citing rising risks to the U.S. job market and economic growth [4][5] - Powell noted that while inflation risks remain, the Fed may consider lowering rates in the coming months, with a significant probability of a rate cut in September [5][6] - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high, as traders increased bets on rate cuts [6]

Group 1 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve Board, specifically targeting Governor Lisa Cook, threatening her dismissal if she does not resign voluntarily [2][4][6] - Cook has publicly stated her intention to remain in her position despite the threats, emphasizing her commitment to addressing any inquiries regarding her financial history [5] - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with Trump having appointed several during his first term, aiming to create more vacancies to secure a majority for his appointees [4][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts, citing rising risks in the labor market and economic growth [8][9] - Powell noted that while inflation risks remain, the Fed is open to adjusting its policy stance in response to changing economic conditions [9] - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut being priced in [9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a significant speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating a strong signal for potential interest rate cuts and a return to the traditional 2% inflation target, abandoning the controversial Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) [1][3][7]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, the U.S. stock market experienced a surge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 900 points, closing at a record high. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recorded their largest single-day gains since May, with the market fear index (VIX) dropping by 12% [2][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 75% to 90% immediately after Powell's remarks, reflecting market optimism [3][5]. Economic Challenges - Powell acknowledged the challenging situation facing the Federal Reserve, noting a conflict between low inflation and a healthy labor market. He highlighted a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month, far below the expected levels for 2024 [4][12]. - He emphasized the need for caution in adjusting economic restrictions, suggesting that rate cuts would not be implemented all at once [4]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the FAIT framework, which allowed inflation to exceed 2% for a period. This decision was made in light of the framework's failure during the post-pandemic inflation surge [7][12]. - The Federal Reserve will revert to a more traditional inflation target of 2%, with a focus on anchoring inflation expectations [7][8]. Legacy and Independence Concerns - Powell's tenure is marked by a "fiscal dominance" era, where government fiscal policy has overshadowed monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [12][14]. - The combination of significant government spending and aggressive monetary easing has led to a situation where the Fed's independence is perceived to be at risk, potentially leading to a "debt death spiral" as warned by Ray Dalio [12][14]. Future Implications - Powell's successor will face the challenge of controlling inflation without triggering a severe economic downturn while maintaining the Fed's independence amid political and fiscal pressures [16].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks [1][5][4] - Market expectations for a September rate cut surged, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] - Major U.S. stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 2.73% [1][6][7] Group 2 - International precious metals futures saw widespread gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.05% to $3417.20 per ounce and silver futures up by 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce [2] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a rally, with Ethereum surpassing its previous all-time high, reflecting a 250% increase since its April low [3] Group 3 - Tesla's stock rose over 6% following news of a partnership with Volcano Engine to enhance its smart cockpit experience [6] - Intel's shares increased by 5.53% after announcing a deal with the U.S. government for an $8.9 billion investment [6] Group 4 - Chinese assets showed strong performance, with notable gains in stocks like Miniso and NIO, reflecting growing optimism among foreign investors regarding China's economic outlook [7][8] - Morgan Stanley highlighted the valuation discount of Chinese stocks compared to developed markets, indicating potential investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Fed President Harmack maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts as long as inflation remains a threat, emphasizing the need for moderate tightening to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Harmack stated that inflation has been above target for four consecutive years and must be controlled [1] - She expressed concerns about prematurely shifting to a loose monetary policy, which could reignite inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - This viewpoint contrasts sharply with market sentiment, as Fed Chair Powell indicated that current conditions "may require" policy easing, leading to a significant market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the FOMC in September [1] Group 3: Neutral Interest Rate - Harmack revealed her assessment of the so-called "neutral interest rate" is higher than that of most Fed officials [1] - As a former Goldman Sachs executive, she will not have voting rights on the FOMC until 2026 [1] Group 4: Other Hawkish Voices - Kansas City Fed President Schmid also expressed skepticism about rate cuts in a recent interview [1] - Schmid is a voting member of the FOMC this year but will not have voting rights again until 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation indicates an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5]. Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting increased risks to employment [4][12]. - Recent employment growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 jobs per month, significantly below the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [12]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, but remains historically low, indicating stability in labor market indicators [12]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation for monetary policy [5][16]. - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices, with the total PCE price rising by 2.6% year-over-year, and core PCE increasing by 2.9% [14][15]. - The assumption that tariff impacts on prices are mostly one-time adjustments is gaining confidence, although the timing and extent of these impacts remain uncertain [8][15]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has been revised to remove the goal of achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over time and the reliance on deviations from full employment as a decision-making basis [5][21]. - The revised framework emphasizes the need for flexibility in monetary policy to adapt to various economic conditions and structural changes [18][22]. - The commitment to maintaining long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2% is reiterated as essential for achieving both maximum employment and price stability [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has updated its monetary policy framework, emphasizing a more flexible approach to employment and inflation targets, moving away from strict adherence to previous guidelines [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - Policymakers clarified that they will not raise interest rates solely based on low unemployment to curb potential inflation, indicating a shift from previous practices [1] - The language indicating that officials would only respond to "insufficient" full employment has been removed, allowing for a higher employment rate without necessarily posing risks to price stability [1] - The Fed reiterated its 2% inflation target and the importance of stable inflation expectations, while abandoning the "compensatory strategy" that tolerated higher inflation to offset periods below target [1] Group 2: Strategic Framework - The updated framework states that the monetary policy strategy aims to promote full employment and price stability under broad economic conditions, contrasting with previous descriptions of low interest rates as a defining feature of the economic landscape [1] - The update has received unanimous approval from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with plans for a review of the strategy every five years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate a rate cut [1][2][3] Economic Conditions and Outlook - The labor market remains close to maximum employment, but the unemployment rate has risen by nearly one percentage point, a development historically associated with recessions [4][6] - GDP growth has significantly slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [6] - The labor market is experiencing a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising employment risks [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - Short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [3][8] - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in certain categories, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to accumulate over the coming months, with significant uncertainty regarding timing and magnitude [7] Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral than it was a year ago, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments [8][9] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will base decisions on data assessments and their implications for economic outlook and risk balance [9] - The revised monetary policy framework aims to promote maximum employment and price stability under a variety of economic conditions [10][14]

在正式讲话之前，美联储官员的发言往往会提前透出一些信号。施密德在最近的采访中就明确指出，市场对9月降息的预期已经非常高涨——根据CME美联 储观察工具显示，下调25个基点的概率接近80%。不过，他同时提醒，尽管市场已经押注降息，美联储在最终决定是否调整政策利率时，仍然需要非常清 晰、可靠的数据支撑。而从现在到9月之间，还有不少细节和变数需要继续观察和讨论。 施密德坦言，他不认为美联储在实现2%的通胀目标上已经取得足够进展："最后一英里的路很艰难。通胀的最后一点增幅，真的会带来实际成本。我个人认 为，通胀数据可能更接近3%，而不是2%，我们还有工作要做。" 在政治压力方面，美联储也面临诸多挑战。白宫持续呼吁降息，理由是关税不会加剧通胀，同时降息有助于刺激房地产市场并降低政府借贷成本。近期，美 联储还因内部理事涉及抵押贷款争议而登上舆论头条。对此，施密德表示，作为央行专业人士，美联储内部会妥善处理相关事务。 此外，最新公布的7月份会议纪要显示，美联储官员仍然关注通胀和失业问题，而施密德则认为劳动力市场整体稳健。对于政策制定者承受的各种压力，他 用了一个颇有画面感的比喻："钢铁是在烈火中炼成的。让我们开始对话，让公 ...

哈玛克讲话前，周四稍早，今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也在杰克逊霍尔年会现场表态，他对广泛预期的9月降息表现犹豫。 本周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话前，已有美联储官员表现出不看好下月降息的态度，似乎在给期待鲍威尔释放降息信号的人"打预防 针"。 美东时间21日周四，两名美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔年会当地接收采访。其中，明年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表 示，从现有的经济数据看，FOMC可能并不会在9月降息。她还说，如果明天就要做决定，她不会支持降息。 美股早盘尾声时，哈玛克不支持很快降息的讲话传出后，美国国债收益率集体加速上行。 基准10年期美国国债的收益率升约4.7个基点，接近4.34%，美股午盘进一步升至4.34%上方。对利率前景更敏感的2年期美债收益率升超4.6个基点，升破 3.80%，接近三周来高位。 施密德说，他并不确信美联储在降低通胀方面取得了足够的进展。他估计，通胀水平可能更接近3%而不是2%，美联储在实现2%的通胀目标方面仍有工作要 做。 施密德特别强调了实现通胀目标面对的挑战。他说："最后一英里似乎很困难，我和很多人都认为，系 ...