1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

Core Viewpoint - The VIX index, often referred to as the "fear index," reflects the market's expectations of future volatility in the S&P 500 and serves as a barometer for investor sentiment and anxiety in the financial markets [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding VIX - The VIX is created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange and measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, indicating market participants' fears and expectations [1]. - A rising VIX suggests increased market anxiety, often triggered by actions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, or disappointing economic data [1][6]. - The VIX is not a neutral indicator; it reflects the genuine concerns of wealthy investors and policymakers regarding asset depreciation and economic instability [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions to VIX - When the VIX spikes, the market typically shifts to a "risk-off" mode, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen [4][5]. - A high VIX often correlates with a strengthening dollar, as investors rush to convert their assets into USD for safety, although this relationship can vary depending on market conditions [5][6]. - Conversely, a low VIX may indicate complacency in the market, potentially signaling a buildup of hidden risks, making gold a crucial asset for protection during such times [6][7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The signals from the VIX should inform trading strategies in forex and gold markets, guiding decisions on whether to increase exposure to safe-haven assets or take profits [7]. - Understanding the underlying drivers of VIX movements—whether macroeconomic events or technical adjustments—can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to view the VIX as a complex signal rather than a simple number, integrating it with other indicators for a comprehensive market analysis [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US continues to release signals of trade relaxation, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The Chinese foreign exchange regulator aims to correct pro - cyclical market behaviors, alleviating the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Domestic policy support and US - China trade relaxation signals strongly support the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; bonds are expected to fluctuate at high levels with cautious long positions; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors, with black metals being weak in the short - term, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals expected to rebound, and precious metals fluctuating at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US tariff policies lead to rising prices, slowing economic activities, and a 16 - month low in business activities. The US President's statements on tariff reduction and exemption boost the US dollar and global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's actions ease RMB exchange rate pressure, and domestic policies and US - China trade signals support the domestic market [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declines slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, agriculture, and hotel tourism. However, short - term risk appetite is supported, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market experiences a significant correction. Factors such as the US government's attitude towards tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar, and economic data affect the market. In the long - term, the decline of the US government's credit and trade policy uncertainties support the fundamentals of gold, and a correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but faces greater correction pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The spot and futures prices of steel rebound, and market trading volume recovers. Demand is recovering, and inventory is decreasing, but supply also has room to increase. The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and an interval - oscillation approach is recommended [5]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebound due to macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals are relatively strong. Iron - water production has room for further increase, and supply is expected to rise in the second quarter. An interval - oscillation approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the peak of iron - water production [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable, but the production willingness of silicon - manganese enterprises is decreasing. The short - term prices are expected to oscillate within an interval [6][7]. Energy - chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about OPEC's production increase outweighs the impact of potential trade - tariff relaxation, causing the oil price to decline [8]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the decline of oil prices. The market shows a north - south differentiation, and its fundamentals lack driving forces and mainly follow the movement of crude - oil prices [8]. PX - The external price of PX rebounds with crude oil, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern similar to PTA [8]. PTA - The basis of PTA declines slightly. Although tariff - relaxation news boosts the price, terminal orders are poor, and downstream inventory pressure increases. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The de - stocking of port inventory is limited, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [9]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber rebounds slightly with polyester. However, domestic demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. It will follow the movement of crude oil but with a smaller increase [10][11]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang rises slightly. Inventory shows a slight change, and the 05 contract price will oscillate, while the 09 contract may face supply pressure [12]. PP - The domestic PP market shows a narrow - range adjustment. Although downstream开工 declines, upstream maintenance increases, and supply - side reduction is expected to ease the pressure, and the price is expected to repair through oscillation [13]. LLDPE - The PE market price adjusts. Import volume is expected to decline, and the price will oscillate with limited downward space in the short - term, but face pressure from new production capacity in the long - term [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Global manufacturing PMI is better than expected. A copper mine accident and the decline in processing fees affect the market. With strong demand, the inventory of refined copper is decreasing, and the short - term price will continue to rebound [16]. Aluminum - Trump's statement on tariff reduction boosts market sentiment. The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, but the long - term trend still depends on tariff negotiations and domestic policies. The short - term price may rebound, but it is bearish in the medium - term [16]. Tin - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the mining area. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is differentiated. The inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound with limited space [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans rises due to the relaxation of trade tensions and a weak US dollar. The sowing progress is normal [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The slow recovery of oil - mill operations has led to a significant increase in the spot basis. With the arrival of imported soybeans and the resumption of operations, the high basis is expected to decline. Near - month contracts may face limited upside [19]. Vegetable Oils and Meals - Different vegetable oils and meals have different market conditions. For example, soybean oil inventory is decreasing, palm oil demand is expected to be stable, and rapeseed meal is in the demand season but may face inventory risks [20]. Livestock Pigs - The market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. Although there is seasonal demand for piglets, short - term supply pressure may increase, and the price may face pressure around May [21][22]. Corn - The corn market faces upper - limit pressure from weak demand and high inventory and lower - limit support from factors such as low inventory in production areas and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [22].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：feng ...

2025年4月23日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

金十数据4月23日讯，原油期货收复了前一日的大部分失地。Price Futures Group分析师菲尔•弗林表 示："看起来我们正在冒一些风险。有时候，当你结束周末假期后，你会做出一些疯狂的举动和过度反 应。所以我认为我们正在进行一些现实检查，市场正在回升。" 风险偏好回升，原油期货反弹 ...

2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

Macro Overview - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to remain high in the future, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on China exceeding market expectations, leading to suppressed market risk appetite [3] - The U.S. tariff policy is seen as a temporary tool, with ongoing risks of fluctuating tax rates and expanded implementation scope [3] - Long-term risks include potential overestimation of tariff threats by the Trump administration and possible policy oscillations between "increases and exemptions," which could disrupt operational decisions for certain countries and industries [3] Domestic Macro - The economy showed a strong start in Q1, but growth may slow in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances [3] - Policy measures in Q1 have led to better-than-expected economic growth, but structural issues such as strong supply and weak demand persist, indicating a potential slowdown in recovery [3] - Increased external tariffs may negatively impact global economic growth expectations and put pressure on exports [3] - There is a need for continued policy support focused on domestic demand, particularly in employment, income, and social security, to address the weak demand situation [3] - As external tariff pressures rise, domestic policies are expected to respond actively to bolster domestic consumption and support steady economic recovery [3] A-share Strategy and Outlook - The global risk appetite is being suppressed by tariff pressures, leading to a phase of adjustment in A-shares after a revaluation [4] - The domestic economic fundamentals show a strong start, but internal momentum faces downward pressure, and market sentiment towards technology stocks has cooled [4] - The policy phase has shifted from negotiation to implementation, with a focus on observing the recovery of economic fundamentals [4] - The upcoming earnings season will shift market focus from valuation to performance fundamentals, with a potential shift towards high-quality and high-dividend stocks in the short term [4] - A defensive approach is recommended, with a focus on large-cap value/dividend stocks due to increased market volatility and uncertainty [4] - Patience is advised while waiting for the end of external uncertainties and potential domestic policy responses to boost market confidence [4] - The technology sector remains a key focus for the year despite current adjustments, with expectations of policy support to strengthen the sector [4] - Continuous attention to globalization and multi-asset opportunities is encouraged, particularly in overseas bonds and gold [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, particularly the recent announcements from the US that exceeded market expectations, which may lead to increased market risk aversion [5][20][23] - The economic performance in Q1 was strong, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in Q2 due to external tariff disturbances and weak domestic demand [6][7][33] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support domestic consumption and counteract external pressures, suggesting that the government may implement strategies to boost consumer demand [7][8][41] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of adjustment following a revaluation, with external tariff pressures impacting global risk appetite and leading to a cautious outlook [8][10] - The report indicates that the market is transitioning from a focus on valuation to an emphasis on earnings performance as the earnings season approaches [8][10] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on large-cap value and dividend stocks, as market volatility increases due to external uncertainties [8][10] Group 3 - The report notes a mixed performance in major asset classes, with A-shares experiencing slight declines while gold prices surged significantly due to heightened uncertainty in international trade [13][14] - The performance of various sectors in March showed a divergence, with defensive sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and banking performing well, while growth sectors faced declines [15][16] - The report suggests that the technology sector remains a key focus for the year, despite facing short-term adjustments due to reduced market sentiment [8][10][16]

- The report mentions the "TWO BETA" model, which continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - The industry allocation model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy[3][4][9] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index has narrowed to 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - The report suggests that if the trading volume falls below 1.1 trillion yuan, the market is expected to rebound[2][4][11] - The current PE ratio of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][12] - The position management model recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12] Model and Factor Construction - **TWO BETA Model**: This model recommends the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: This model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: The timing system uses the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 5253 points and the 120-day moving average at 5086 points, with a distance of 3.28%[2][4][11] Model and Factor Evaluation - **TWO BETA Model**: Continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: Recommends a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as new energy[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: Indicates a market in a volatile state, with the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages narrowing to 3.28%[2][4][11] Backtest Results - **Timing System**: The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index is 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - **Wind All A Index**: The current PE ratio is around the 60th percentile, and the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile[3][12] - **Position Management Model**: Recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12]