Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous optimization of supply and demand structures in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, supported by favorable policies and strong market demand [3][71]. - In June, NEV production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%, with NEVs accounting for 45.8% of total new car sales [3][45]. - The report highlights that the supply side is seeing new product launches from battery and main engine manufacturers, while the demand side is responding positively, indicating a robust market environment [3][71]. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the NEV industry, suggesting that the supply-demand structure is marginally improving and that prices in the industry are expected to recover after hitting bottom in 2025 [4][72]. - Key investment directions include focusing on high-potential areas such as robotics, solid-state batteries, battery materials, and liquid cooling technologies [4][72]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include CATL, Zhejiang Rongtai, Tianan New Materials, and others in the solid-state battery and liquid cooling sectors [4][72]. Market Performance - The NEV index, lithium battery index, and other related indices showed positive performance, with the NEV index increasing by 11.64% year-to-date [22]. - Notable stock performances include Li Yuanheng, which saw a weekly increase of 23.8%, and other companies like Keda Li and Zhongcai Technology also performed well [5][26]. Price Tracking in Lithium Battery Supply Chain - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.5% to 66,700 CNY per ton, while lithium hydroxide prices rose by 0.4% to 57,600 CNY per ton [31][30]. - The report notes that cobalt prices have seen a significant increase of approximately 43% year-to-date, while other materials like nickel and lithium hexafluorophosphate have shown mixed trends [28][30]. Production and Sales Data - In the first half of 2025, NEV production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3][45]. - The report also highlights the performance of major NEV manufacturers, with BYD achieving sales of 380,000 units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 12% [46].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown an overall upward trend, driven by favorable economic data and policy support, with the ChiNext index leading the gains [3][4]. Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP growth reached 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating that a growth rate of 4.7% in the second half is sufficient to meet the annual target of 5% [4]. - Retail sales and exports have shown upward trends, reflecting stable demand and a slowdown in investment growth, which improves the supply-demand relationship in the economy [4]. - Financial data in June was strong, and the willingness of enterprises to expand internally, along with the pace of new fiscal policies, will be key factors influencing social financing growth [4]. Policy Environment - Policies aimed at improving corporate profitability and attracting long-term capital into the market are being implemented. The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage insurance funds to invest steadily over the long term [4]. - There is still room for internal policies to exert influence, and rapid policy responses may occur if external uncertainties increase [4]. External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to gradually ease, with the 90-day trade tariff suspension between China and the U.S. set to expire on August 12 [5]. - Market expectations suggest that September may be a critical month for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to increased global liquidity and support the revaluation of Chinese assets [5]. Corporate Earnings - The first quarter saw a significant rebound in the earnings growth of listed companies, with the recovery speed slightly exceeding expectations, and the quarter-on-quarter growth surpassing the average since 2019 [5]. - Continued consumer subsidy policies may support the sustainability of domestic demand improvements [5]. Market Outlook - August is anticipated to be a key month, with attention on the disclosure of mid-year earnings by listed companies, the easing of external uncertainties, and the marginal loosening of overseas liquidity [6]. - The market is expected to shift from policy-driven to fundamentally and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for new highs in the second half of the year [7]. - Investment focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, and long-term attention should be directed towards three main lines: domestic consumption, technological independence, and dividend stocks [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by innovation and market dynamics [3][5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from three main themes: dividends, AI intelligence, and robotics, with a recommendation to increase exposure to dividend stocks in the second half of 2025 [3][5]. - The report highlights a significant decline in passenger car insurance data, with a week-on-week decrease of 8.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.6% [2][44]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand supported by policies such as vehicle scrappage and replacement incentives, projecting a retail sales increase of 4.1% year-on-year for 2025 [45][53]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - The second week of July saw a total of 362,000 passenger cars insured, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 8.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 19.6% [2][44]. - The best-performing segments included commercial trucks (+9.4%) and automotive parts (+4.1%), while passenger cars showed a modest increase of 1.8% [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance in A-shares ranked third among all sectors, indicating a strong recovery trend [7][14]. - Key companies such as Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of 92.367 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year profit decrease of 10.22% [3][60]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the domestic retail sales of passenger cars will reach 23.69 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [45][46]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase significantly, reaching 60.6% by 2025 [49][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leading in technology innovation, particularly in the areas of AI and robotics, as these will be crucial for the sector's growth [3][58]. - Specific stocks recommended include those in the commercial vehicle segment and key players in the electric vehicle market [3][58].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the index continues to rise, with a focus on financial and technology sectors, as the market sentiment remains optimistic, leading to a 3.17% increase in the ChiNext index and a 0.69% increase in the Shanghai Composite index [3][15]. - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, as the upward momentum may accelerate after the consolidation phase, with financial and technology sectors being the main focus for the second half of the year [4][16]. Group 2 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the artificial intelligence sector, with significant developments expected in the next 1-2 months, including the potential release of OpenAI's GPT-5 and the success of KimiK2 as a leading open-source model [5][17]. - Robotics, as a key application area of artificial intelligence, is also expected to rise alongside AI, with additional opportunities in other technology segments such as innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, stablecoins, nuclear fusion, and deep-sea economy [6][18]. Group 3 - The report notes that while the anti-involution theme may see short-term fluctuations due to policy expectations, its overall sustainability is limited, suggesting a focus on steel and non-ferrous metals for mid-term investment potential [7][19]. - The financial sector is identified as a crucial component for index growth, with recommendations for low-cost entry during the current consolidation phase, alongside a cautious approach to the real estate sector as risk assessments may begin to decline [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, leading global major indices, with thematic funds achieving significant returns, and a structured bull market is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [1][3][6]. Thematic Funds Performance - Hong Kong thematic funds have demonstrated outstanding performance, with the highest net asset value growth rate exceeding 130% year-to-date, leading the public fund performance rankings [2][3]. - As of July 18, the Hang Seng Index has risen over 23% this year, contributing to the strong performance of thematic funds, with eight out of the top 20 performing funds being Hong Kong thematic funds [3]. Market Drivers - The strong performance of the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: positive changes in the industry, sensitivity to overseas liquidity conditions, and historically low valuations following several years of decline [3]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is projected to be around 9 times PE by the end of 2024, indicating significant upside potential [3]. Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about the Hong Kong market, anticipating a structured bull market with a focus on sectors such as AI, new consumption, and robotics [6][8]. - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong is highlighted as a promising investment area, featuring high-quality leaders and various sub-sectors like innovative drugs and internet healthcare [8]. - The consumer sector is also expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand, creating new investment opportunities [8]. Fund Company Activity - There has been a surge in applications for Hong Kong thematic funds, with 17 applications received in July alone, indicating growing interest from fund companies [4][5]. - The influx of overseas and domestic capital into the Hong Kong market is seen as a positive sign for future growth, with the market becoming an attractive destination for diversified investment [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 转债市场周报 资金配置转债需求依旧较强 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场延续上涨，英伟达 H20 芯片恢复对华供应、光 模块龙头企业业绩预告表现亮眼等催化下，通信板块表现靠前，创新药、 机器人相关行情带动生物医药、汽车、机械板块表现较好。 债市方面，上周债市窄幅震荡，尽管央行实行大额公开市场投放及买断 式逆回购，但受税期影响资金面仍有所收紧，6 月金融数据改善、权益 市场延续强势也对债市情绪形成压制；而 6 月经济数据显示内需依旧偏 弱则利好债市；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.67%，和前周基本持平。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+0.67%，价 格中位数+0.91%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+1.43%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.91%。个券层面，博瑞（创新药）、博汇（算力）、 聚隆（机器人）、亿田（算力）、宏丰（合金材料）转债涨幅靠前；塞 力（创新药&业绩预亏）、广大（特种合金&已公告强赎）、华辰（变压 器）、濮耐（耐火材料）、联得（显示模组设备&已公告强赎）转 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest gain of 3.17%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest increase of 0.28%. The sectors of communication, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles performed relatively well, with increases of 7.6%, 4.0%, and 3.3% respectively, while utilities, real estate, and media sectors saw declines of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.2% respectively [1][11][14]. Group 2 - Economic data has shown positive performance recently, with the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reaching 5.2% year-on-year, and a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year. The GDP growth rate for the second half only needs to reach 4.7% to meet the annual target of 5% [2][19]. - The demand side remains stable while the investment side shows a slowdown, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship. Retail sales and exports have both seen an upward trend [2][19]. - Financial data for June showed strong performance, and the willingness of enterprises to expand internally, along with the pace of incremental fiscal policy, will be key factors affecting social financing growth [2][20]. Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are being implemented across various industries to alleviate corporate profit pressures. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to encourage long-term investments from insurance funds [30][31]. - The internal policy space remains available for further action, especially in response to external uncertainties. The domestic economy has shown signs of improvement, making it feasible to achieve the annual economic goals [31][32]. Group 4 - The market is expected to focus on the performance of listed companies' interim reports, the easing of external uncertainties, and the marginal loosening of overseas liquidity in August [4][39]. - The configuration direction emphasizes three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks. In the domestic consumption sector, attention is drawn to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [4][51].

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3][4] - Five sectors are expected to benefit from the project: main construction, cement and building materials, civil explosives, foundation treatment, and transportation infrastructure [4] - China Energy Construction Corporation holds over 30% market share in the hydropower construction sector, while Tibet Tianlu is a leading local cement and building materials company [4] Group 2 - The stock prices of companies related to the humanoid robot sector have surged, with Weisheng New Materials achieving an eight-day consecutive rise [5][6] - Utree Technology, a profitable company in the industry, has initiated IPO counseling, attracting significant attention [5][6] - The AI chip and server supply chain is gaining interest, with projections indicating the AI chip market could exceed $400 billion by 2027 [7] Group 3 - The London Metal Exchange saw increases in copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin prices, indicating potential opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector [7] - Solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with market focus on oxide routes and dry process equipment-related stocks [8]

不过，我们看问题不能止步于外卖，可以看到， 堪称全球 "卷王"的中国，现在开始弥漫着反 内卷的气息。 比如外卖行业，如果放在几年前，某家企业宣布烧钱进军外卖，做大营收，资本市场往往是给 予认可，股价上涨，而现在市场明显厌倦了，卷者和被卷者股价都是下跌。 像光伏行业也是，前几年，这里上光伏项目，那里上，市场很开心，而今天再看到哪里上产 能，吓都吓死了。市场苦"卷"已久矣。 而企业的利润持续下滑，甚至巨额亏损，叠加 PPI 的不断负增长，也终于引起政府高层的重 视，从鼓励卷，到开始有点反内卷的意思。 有许多人想起了 2015 年开始的供给侧改革。背景确实有些相似，都是产能过剩，行业亏损或 者利润大幅下降， PPI 为负。那么以供给侧改革为参考，反内卷走到哪一步了？ 通缩环境下，投资人最怕听到的莫过于 "卷"，比如前几个月京东宣布进军外卖，两家股东都 是在骂娘，后面阿里也加入，三家公司的股价一起手拉手下跌，压得恒生科技指数抬不起头， 被称为外卖指数，直看着美股的纳斯达克一路新高。 年初的时候，大家说今年的市场要盯着巨头花钱方向，大家都以为方向会是 AI ，会是机器 人，会是这样的星辰大海，哪知道巨头们却是眼前的苟且 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by new vehicle launches and supportive government policies, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and intelligent driving technologies [4][5][6]. Group 1: Weekly Data - In the second week of July 2025, passenger car sales reached 370,000 units, up 4.0% year-on-year but down 8.7% month-on-month. New energy vehicle sales were 207,000 units, up 11.7% year-on-year and down 4.0% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 55.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month [1][37]. Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 3.41% from July 14 to July 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.29%. Sub-sectors such as commercial trucks, automotive services, and automotive parts saw significant gains, while commercial passenger vehicles and motorcycles experienced declines [2][30]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in intelligence and globalization, specifically highlighting companies like Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Xpeng [3][12][6]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call is scheduled for July 24, and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference will take place on July 26, showcasing over 60 intelligent robots, which are expected to catalyze the sector [4][17]. Group 5: New Vehicle Launches - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent policies aim to reduce internal competition in the automotive industry, promoting a shift from price wars to value-based competition. Upcoming vehicle launches, including the Li Auto i8 and Geely Galaxy A7, are expected to improve market fundamentals [5][10][9]. Group 6: Robotics and Automation - The robotics sector is poised for growth, with significant developments in Tesla's production capabilities and the introduction of new technologies in the hardware segment, such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials [4][15][16]. Group 7: Motorcycle Market - The motorcycle market is witnessing a surge in demand for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, with June 2025 sales reaching 102,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Exports also saw significant growth, with a 59.9% increase in June [18][19][20]. Group 8: Heavy-Duty Trucks - The heavy-duty truck market is recovering, with June sales reaching approximately 92,000 units, a 29% increase year-on-year. The expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy program is expected to further stimulate demand [21][22][23]. Group 9: Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing high demand, with domestic PCR operating rates at 75.99% and TBR rates at 65.10%. The cost of production is decreasing, and the global expansion of leading tire companies is accelerating [24][25][46].