Core Viewpoint - The reduction of the "de minimis" tariff on low-value imports from China is seen as a positive development for small online businesses and companies like Shopify that support them [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The "de minimis" tariff on goods valued at $800 or less has been eliminated, which previously exempted these goods from tariffs [3]. - President Trump announced a reduction of the tariff on "de minimis" goods from 120% to 54%, with exemptions in place for 90 days as negotiations continue [4]. Group 2: Impact on Shopify - Although Shopify itself is not directly affected by the tariff changes, many of its small business customers could face increased costs due to the new tariff rates [3][5]. - The potential for higher costs for Shopify's customers could have a near-term impact on the company's earnings if the tariffs remain in place [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the current tariff situation is not a reason to avoid investing in Shopify, as the company is well-positioned to navigate the challenges posed by trade tensions [6].

Group 1 - China has not imported US LNG for nearly two and a half months since imposing a 15% retaliatory tariff in February, with imports dropping from 65,700 tons in February to zero in March compared to 412,500 tons last year [1][3] - The Chinese government is diversifying its natural gas supply channels and is not solely reliant on the US, focusing on increasing domestic production and utilizing cheaper alternatives such as coal and renewable energy [3][5] - The trade tensions have led to Canada imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [5][6] Group 2 - There is a call from various sectors in Canada for a pragmatic cooperation with China, suggesting a need to reassess past policies towards China to improve bilateral relations [7] - The Chinese ambassador to Canada emphasized the strong complementary nature of economic relations between China and Canada, particularly in the energy sector [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between the US and China to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has temporarily eased the trade war, but the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The short - term market has been strongly boosted, but the oil price has fallen from its high due to supply - side pressure and long - term tariff negotiation issues. In the short term, it is difficult for crude oil to break through without more news stimuli. The short - term range of crude oil is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Crude Oil 2506**: The fundamentals are neutral as the US - China trade agreement eases the situation, but Iraq plans to cut exports. The basis is bullish with spot premiums over futures. Inventory data is bullish as API, EIA, and Cushing inventories all decreased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory also declined. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, showing a neutral signal. WTI and Brent's main positions are long, but with different trends (WTI long positions increasing, Brent long positions decreasing), also neutral. The short - term range is 478 - 486, and long - term investors should partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market**: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.05 (1.64%), 0.93 (1.52%), 5.90 (1.26%), and 1.15 (1.78%) respectively. In the spot market, the prices of various crude oils also rose, with the UK Brent Dtd increasing by 1.54 (2.41%), WTI by 0.93 (1.52%), Oman crude by 1.82 (2.92%), etc. [7][9] 2. Recent News - **Trade Agreement**: The US and China reached an agreement to significantly reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days, temporarily easing the trade war. However, the fundamental differences remain, and it will take years to reshape the trade relationship. The Fed officials believe that the agreement can reduce the impact of the trade war, but the remaining tariffs are still high and will have a stagflation effect on the economy [5]. - **Mexico's Oil Export**: Pemex plans to reduce its crude oil exports this year as more crude will be sent to local refineries, especially the new Olmeca refinery. Once fully operational, it can process 340,000 barrels of crude per day and will receive about 100,000 barrels per day, increasing local processing to 1.2 million barrels per day and leaving about 400,000 barrels per day for export [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and potential rapid supply - side production increases. There are also risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks. Additionally, the US threatens to sanction Iran, and Venezuelan crude is also at risk of sanctions, while there are signs of some easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory**: As of May 2, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.494 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 2.48 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of May 2, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 833,000 barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels [3][14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The text presents a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and Call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 [20]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 177,209, an increase of 6,254. As of May 6, it decreased by 1,781 to 175,428 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of April 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 109,941, a decrease of 18,442. As of May 6, it decreased by 12,383 to 97,558 [19].

Core Insights - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 43% of investors believe trade conflicts are the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis [1] - The second most cited source of potential credit crisis is the shadow banking sector, with 25% of investors identifying it as a concern [1] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, and the bank noted that the outcomes of US-China trade talks have "prevented economic recession or credit events" [1]

Core Insights - US inflation remained stable in April, with economists warning that this may be the last calm period before consumer prices surge due to tariffs from the trade war initiated by Trump [1] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February increased by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous month's annual increase [1] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, consistent with the increase observed in March [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant adjustments made by the U.S. in the trade negotiations with China, including the cancellation of most tariffs, indicating a desire to ease trade tensions and restore trade flows [1][2][5] - The U.S. has removed 91% of the additional tariffs, while China has reciprocated by withdrawing its countermeasures, with an additional 24% of tariffs paused for 90 days [2][5] - The negotiations are seen as a response to both internal and external pressures on the U.S. government, with various stakeholders urging for a resolution to avoid economic downturns [7][9] Group 2 - Brazil's recent visit to China by President Lula, accompanied by a large business delegation, signifies Brazil's intent to secure more trade agreements, potentially capitalizing on the U.S.-China trade tensions [11][13] - Brazil aims to increase exports of traditional agricultural products and minerals to China, including soybeans, beef, and iron ore, while also seeking long-term supply contracts [13][15] - The collaboration extends to renewable energy and technology sectors, with Brazil looking to attract Chinese investment in semiconductor manufacturing and 5G network development [17][20] Group 3 - The evolving trade dynamics between China and Brazil may challenge the U.S.'s influence in Latin America, as Brazil emphasizes a non-aligned stance and seeks to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [19][22] - The U.S. technology blockade against China may face obstacles as Brazil expresses interest in collaborating on advanced technologies, potentially undermining U.S. efforts [20][22] - The article suggests that the global economic landscape is shifting towards a more diversified cooperation model, indicating that unilateral pressure from the U.S. may lead to lost opportunities [25][27]

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Core Viewpoint - The recent negotiations between China and the U.S. have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with both sides canceling 91% of tariffs and reducing additional tariffs to 10%, marking a return to the pre-April 2 status, but the underlying dynamics of trade and pricing have fundamentally changed [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff negotiations, U.S. clients have begun to place orders with Chinese manufacturers, creating an illusion of normalcy, yet the market dynamics have shifted [2]. - China's export to the U.S. saw a 21% decline in April, but overall exports increased by 9.3%, indicating a global shift towards sourcing from China to capture the U.S. market [7]. - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. have not crippled China; instead, they have contributed to rising inflation in the U.S., with national debt surpassing $36 trillion and major retailers expressing concerns over empty shelves [7]. Group 2: Pricing Power and Market Perception - Chinese exporters have adapted to the trade tensions by forming a consensus to raise prices, moving away from the previous strategy of undercutting prices to secure orders [8][17]. - The prices of rare earth metals have surged dramatically, with dysprosium doubling to $850 per kilogram and terbium increasing over 210% to $3,000, reflecting the new pricing power of Chinese manufacturers [9]. - The perception of Chinese manufacturing is changing, with more American consumers recognizing the quality of products made in China, leading to a shift in branding strategies [19][23]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The trade conflict has inadvertently highlighted China's advancements in manufacturing and its critical role in global supply chains, particularly in high-tech and military sectors where the U.S. heavily relies on Chinese rare earth materials [11][14]. - The ongoing tariff situation may lead to lasting changes in pricing structures, making it difficult for prices to revert to previous levels even if the trade war ends [24]. - The current trade tensions serve as a public acknowledgment of China's decade-long efforts to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities and redefine its market position [21][25].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs" has not achieved its intended goals, instead accelerating a profound transformation in the global economic landscape, leading to a clearer outline of a "post-American era" [1][3]. Economic Impact - The core logic behind the tariff war was to increase government revenue to alleviate fiscal deficits and to force manufacturing back to the U.S. However, while tariffs may provide short-term revenue, they ultimately suppress international trade, shrinking the tax base and weakening the fiscal foundation of the U.S. [3]. - The manufacturing repatriation goal is unrealistic due to significant cost differences in global labor, with U.S.-China manufacturing cost disparities reaching 5 to 10 times, making tariffs insufficient to offset these differences [3]. - The volatility of U.S. tariff policies has led to global economic instability, with predictions of a 0.2% decline in global trade volume by 2025 and a potential increase in the U.S. core PCE index by 0.85% to 1.2% [3]. China's Response - China has demonstrated strong strategic resolve and precise countermeasures, such as imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and restricting rare earth exports, which directly impact U.S. industries [5][8]. - Despite U.S. tariffs, bilateral trade between China and the U.S. is projected to grow over 8% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the complexity of trade relations in the era of globalization [5]. - Approximately 30% of China's exports to the U.S. consist of products manufactured by U.S. companies in China, meaning that the tariff costs are largely borne by American firms [5]. Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The tariff war has accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with countries seeking new cooperation paths, leading to a more decentralized and regionalized global supply chain [6]. - China is leveraging its robust infrastructure, efficient government services, and vast industrial support systems to maintain its irreplaceable position in the global supply chain [6]. Technological Development - China is focusing on domestic technological advancements through initiatives like the "domestic substitution list" to overcome key technology gaps, significantly increasing R&D investments in semiconductor companies [8]. - China is also deepening technological cooperation with non-U.S. countries, participating in ASEAN digital economy initiatives and collaborating with the EU on 6G development, thereby diluting the impact of U.S. sanctions [8]. Conclusion on U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. trade war reflects unilateralism and hegemonic thinking, contradicting the trends of economic globalization, and undermines the mutually beneficial nature of U.S.-China economic cooperation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views - The plastics market is affected by factors such as increased supply from new capacity and reduced downstream demand, but the sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, suggesting that short positions should gradually stop profit and exit [3] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with futures prices hitting new lows and limited room for spot price decline, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5] - The short - term copper price is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards, affected by Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [10] - Crude oil supply is under pressure, demand growth is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions [11][13] - For asphalt, under the situation of weak supply and demand, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] - PP is expected to oscillate, with downstream demand recovery slow and new orders limited, but market sentiment is boosted by trade negotiations [15][16] - PVC is still under pressure, but it is recommended to gradually stop profit on short positions due to improved macro - sentiment [17] - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but the upward space is restricted by policies [18][19] Summary by Variety Plastics - Supply: Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled devices restarted, and new capacity was put into production, but some devices were also under maintenance [3] - Demand: PE downstream开工率 decreased, with agricultural film entering the off - season and other demand being average [3] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price: The futures price hit a new low, and the spot price is close to the bottom [4][5] - Supply: Production in Jiangxi is stable, while the northern region's开工率 has decreased significantly [5] - Demand: Positive electrode production is expected to increase in May and then enter the off - season, and the impact of US tariffs on global demand may be limited [5] - Inventory: There is a slight reduction in inventory [5] - Recommendation: Wait and see [5] Copper - Price: Affected by Sino - US negotiations and the US dollar, it is expected to oscillate upwards in the short term [9][10] - Supply: The supply of copper ore is tight, and there are many smelter maintenance plans in May and July - September [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, with cable enterprise开工率 and orders increasing [10] - Recommendation: Pay attention to the US CPI data [10] Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + is gradually increasing production, and US production is at a high level, with large supply pressure [11] - Demand: The growth rate of global demand is expected to slow down [11] - Recommendation: Stop profit on previous short positions [13] Asphalt - Supply:开工率 has rebounded, and production is expected to increase in May [14] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is uneven, and actual demand needs to be restored [14] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio has slightly increased, still at a low level in recent years [14] - Recommendation: Wait and see [14] PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into production, and there are more maintenance devices, with enterprise开工率 at a relatively low level [15] - Demand: Downstream开工率 continues to decline, and new orders are limited [15][16] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [15] - Recommendation: Expected to oscillate [16] PVC - Supply:开工率 has increased, and spring maintenance scale is less than last year [17] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is still low, and exports are affected by policies [17] - Inventory: Social inventory is still high [17] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [17] Urea - Supply:开工率 is stable, and some enterprises are resuming production [18] - Demand: Agricultural fertilization is cautious, and compound fertilizer factory开工率 may decline [18][19] - Inventory: Inventory is being reduced [18] - Recommendation: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but be cautious of risks [19]