会议在部署"改革攻坚"任务时强调"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"。 2025.12. 12 本文字数：3725，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜卿卿 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，为明年经济工作指明方向。 相比此前，会议在宏观政策取向、产业发展重点以及资本市场改革方向等方面都有不少新提法，为A 股市场投资提供了最新指引。 业内认为，新旧动能交替仍将是2026年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注， 顺应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是明年A股投资的重要主线。在政策红利与产业升级 共振下，A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。 "2026年是'十五五'规划的开局之年，金融改革创新的重点领域仍在资本市场。"银河证券首席经济学 家章俊认为，新质生产力正成为经济高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力，需要加强资本市场改革，更 好赋能新质生产力。 在他看来，继"十五五"规划建议强调"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"之后，中央经济工作会 议使用"持续深化"这一表述，是对2026年资本市场开展投融资改革重要性的再次深化。 政策预期：积极、宽松 会议明确，继续实施更加积极的财 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" in 2025 to "improving quality and efficiency" in 2026, with a shift from quantity requirements to quality requirements. As the economic cycle gradually improves, the marginal intensity of macro policies weakens [2]. - Fiscal policy in 2026 lacks incremental fiscal spending and emphasizes "strict financial discipline." It is expected to shift from "expansion" to "stability" [2][8]. - The increment of monetary easing is limited, and the focus shifts to credit expansion. The policy center shifts from focusing on the matching between the real economy and finance to promoting the growth of the real economy, with an emphasis on key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expect the implementation of the "income doubling plan"), innovation (the "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry and "fintech" may be highlights), and risk prevention (the order of risk prevention is postponed, and local government debt will be resolved "actively and orderly") [3][9]. Summary by Catalog Strategy Summary - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th. After a "very extraordinary" year in 2025, the macro policy remained stable, and the economy began to show characteristics of "new and high-quality development" [1][7]. - With the macro environment shifting from "strategic defense" to "strategic stalemate," the demand for "putting ourselves first" in the domestic economy has increased. The relationship between the effective market and the effective government has shifted from "letting go and controlling well" in 2024 to "letting go and managing well," reflecting a transformation towards a service-oriented government [7]. - In 2026, the instability of external demand will increase, and the domestic economy should "put itself first" to expand domestic demand [8]. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." The goals, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and key tasks in 2026 are as described above [2][3]. First Paragraph - The description of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 remains the same as in 2024 [10][11][12]. Review - Compared with the Politburo meeting on the 8th and the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, the main changes include the description of the nature of the year, the economic situation, and the development of productivity [14][15][16]. Understanding - The epistemological paragraph of the 2025 economic work conference regarding "economic work" is advanced compared to 2024, highlighting the guiding concept of economic work - "putting ourselves first." The strategic autonomy has been enhanced, and the relationship between the effective market and the effective government has changed [19][20][21]. Current Situation - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference added the description of "old problems and new challenges" when describing economic development problems. It believes that these are problems in development and transformation and can be solved through efforts. The description of the external environment has changed, and the focus on the domestic environment has shifted to "strong supply and weak demand" [23][24][26]. Requirements - The description of the requirements for economic work in 2026 is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. The "steady progress while maintaining stability" work keynote is postponed, and the external demand faces increased instability in 2026. Macro policies remain "active and effective," with enhanced policy "foresight, pertinence, and synergy" and an adjustment in the relationship between supply and demand policies [28][30][31]. Goals - In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "improving quality and efficiency." Fiscal policy shifts from "expansion" to "stability," and monetary policy focuses on credit expansion. Policy coordination focuses on considering "stock" and "increment" together [44][45][46]. Tasks - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expanding the "income increase plan" to urban and rural residents, optimizing the implementation of "two new" and "two important" projects, and high-quality urban renewal), innovation (talent as the primary task, "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry, and fintech services), reform ("anti-involution" in the reform part, "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium-sized financial institutions), and risk prevention (postponing the order of risk prevention, stabilizing the real estate market, and actively resolving local government debt risks) [49][60][61]. Methods - The goal has changed from "achieving an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment, and reasonable price recovery" in 2025 to "solving existing difficult problems," which is more of an economic structure issue that needs to be addressed through reform [66][67][68]. Actions - The shift from "emphasizing action" in 2024 to "correct performance concept" and "acting according to laws" in 2025 implies that the economy in 2026 will show structural characteristics [69][70][71]. New Year Transition - Arrangements are made for the New Year transition, emphasizing the resolution of social contradictions in the context of pressure and difficulties [72][73][74].

Economic Outlook - The overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a return to normalcy, with no extraordinary stimulus expected in the baseline scenario[3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5% or slightly below, requiring an average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the GDP per capita of moderately developed countries by 2035[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on "flexibility and efficiency"[3] - It is anticipated that there will be 1-2 instances of both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and maintaining a deficit rate around 4% for 2026[4] - The scale of special government bonds is expected to be less than the previous year's 1.8 trillion yuan, shifting focus from scale to structural optimization[4] Domestic Demand Policy - The policy emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver," with a combination of measures to optimize supply and stimulate consumption[4] - The expected scale of subsidies for replacing old products in 2026 is projected to remain at 300 billion yuan, the same as in 2025[4] Technology and Innovation - There is a strong emphasis on cultivating new growth drivers and expanding artificial intelligence initiatives, highlighting the urgency of technological innovation[8] - The government aims to establish a matching talent system, industrial chain, institutional framework, and financial system to support high-quality development actions in key industries[8] Risk Management - The risks associated with real estate and local government debt are considered controllable, with a shift in focus from risk prevention to other priorities in the current year's agenda[8] - The emphasis on risk management has been downgraded from fifth to eighth in priority, indicating improved control over these sectors[8] Asset Strategy - The focus on A-share market performance is driven by earnings recovery, with a correlation between A-share trends and fundamental economic conditions expected to increase in 2026[9] - If the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive in the second half of 2026, it could support a recovery in earnings and a potential upward trend in A-shares[9] Overall Economic Strategy - The strategy includes a focus on high-quality development, optimizing existing resources, and enhancing the quality of growth rather than merely expanding quantity[3] - The government aims to balance domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, ensuring stability in employment, prices, and overall economic growth[19]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to fully tap into economic potential and stabilize the birth population as key policy directions, indicating a clear intention to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as the primary direction for policy in 2026, with an emphasis on both goods and service consumption, as well as increased infrastructure investment to stabilize the real estate market [7][8] - The report indicates that innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces will remain major policy directions, with a call for deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation [7][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, potentially driving the onset of a spring market rally, supported by expectations of economic recovery and profit restoration [8][11] - Specific industries such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military, new energy, and new consumption are identified as likely beneficiaries of the favorable policy environment [11] - The report highlights that sectors related to innovation, such as TMT and machinery, are expected to benefit from the emphasis on innovation-driven policies and high-quality development of key industrial chains [11]

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，为明年经济工作指明方向。 相比此前，会议在宏观政策取向、产业发展重点以及资本市场改革方向等方面都有不少新提法，为A股 市场投资提供了最新指引。 业内认为，新旧动能交替仍将是2026年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注，顺 应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是明年A股投资的重要主线。在政策红利与产业升级共振 下，A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。 会议在部署"改革攻坚"任务时强调"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"。 "2026年是'十五五'规划的开局之年，金融改革创新的重点领域仍在资本市场。"银河证券首席经济学家 章俊认为，新质生产力正成为经济高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力，需要加强资本市场改革，更好赋 能新质生产力。 在他看来，继"十五五"规划建议强调"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"之后，中央经济工作会议 使用"持续深化"这一表述，是对2026年资本市场开展投融资改革重要性的再次深化。 政策预期：积极、宽松 会议明确，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，强调 政策协同性和集成效应。业内认为 ...

都有哪些新提法？ 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，为明年经济工作指明方向。 相比此前，会议在宏观政策取向、产业发展重点以及资本市场改革方向等方面都有不少新提法，为A股 市场投资提供了最新指引。 业内认为，新旧动能交替仍将是2026年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注，顺 应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是明年A股投资的重要主线。在政策红利与产业升级共振 下，A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。 会议在部署"改革攻坚"任务时强调"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"。 "2026年是'十五五'规划的开局之年，金融改革创新的重点领域仍在资本市场。"银河证券首席经济学家 章俊认为，新质生产力正成为经济高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力，需要加强资本市场改革，更好赋 能新质生产力。 在他看来，继"十五五"规划建议强调"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"之后，中央经济工作会议 使用"持续深化"这一表述，是对2026年资本市场开展投融资改革重要性的再次深化。 政策预期：积极、宽松 会议明确，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，强调 政策协同性和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent listings of domestic GPU leaders, Moer Thread and Muxi Co., have reignited market enthusiasm for technology stocks, with foreign investors reaffirming their positive outlook on China's tech sector for 2026 [2][11]. Group 1: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese AI and technology stocks, with expectations of a rich array of AI application scenarios and accelerated monetization in the coming year [2][8]. - Over 200 A-share companies have been surveyed by foreign investors since November, with AI-related firms receiving significant attention [4][5]. - High-profile foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Fidelity International have been actively involved in these surveys, indicating strong interest in the technology sector [5][6]. Group 2: AI as a Key Investment Theme - AI is projected to remain a crucial investment theme in 2026, with UBS forecasting that AI-driven innovations will propel market growth [8][9]. - The global AI market is expected to be a significant driver of stock performance, with recommendations for investors to allocate up to 30% of their portfolios to AI and related sectors [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that AI is reshaping profit dynamics, with capital expenditures in AI expected to boost earnings significantly [10]. Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - Foreign investors are optimistic about the overall performance of A-shares in 2026, citing improved corporate resilience and a supportive macroeconomic environment [11][12]. - The Chinese market is seen as a viable alternative for global investors seeking options outside the U.S. stock market, with a potential for significant capital inflow [12][13]. - The combination of strong capital expenditure growth, global expansion strategies, and improved shareholder returns is expected to drive profit recovery and valuation reassessment for Chinese companies [13].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes five "musts" to address the current economic challenges, highlighting the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, and focusing on the need for policy support and reform innovation to stimulate economic potential [2][15]. Economic Situation and Policy Framework - The conference identifies persistent "old problems and new challenges" in the economy, particularly the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, which aligns with the ongoing weakness in PPI and CPI [2][15]. - The 2025 conference shifts focus from the demand side issues highlighted in 2024 to the current supply-demand imbalance, indicating a more targeted approach to economic challenges [2][15]. Economic Goals for 2026 - The conference outlines a focus on overall economic stability and quality improvement, stating the goal of "continuously consolidating and expanding the stable and positive momentum of the economy" without detailing specific indicators [3][16]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties and promoting debt management [4][17]. - Monetary policy aims to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on flexible use of tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [4][17]. Policy Coordination and Reform - The conference stresses the importance of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating both existing and new policies to align with current economic goals [5][18]. - There is a notable emphasis on combining short-term policy measures with long-term institutional reforms, particularly in expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" in competition [6][19]. Green Development and Risk Management - The conference prioritizes green and low-carbon initiatives, committing to "double carbon" goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system [7][20]. - Risk management strategies have evolved from "preventing and resolving" to "actively and prudently resolving," particularly in the real estate sector, with a focus on controlling new supply and optimizing existing stock [8][20].

Economic Transformation - The economic transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is characterized by a shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new models) becoming the new engine of growth [2][3][4] - The GDP growth rate in Guangdong has been around 4%, significantly lower than the 5.5% growth rates in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, indicating regional disparities in economic transformation [2][3] - The contribution of real estate development to GDP is projected to decline from 10.2% in 2020 to approximately 5.1% by 2025, reflecting a diminishing impact of the real estate sector on the economy [2][3][4] Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - The shift towards low-leverage industries indicates a transition in economic drivers, with the financial sector moving away from high-leverage real estate industries [3][4] New Economic Sectors - The "three new economies" are expected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, with high-tech manufacturing growth rates significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [4][6] - Investment in information transmission, software, and IT services is growing at a rate much higher than the overall fixed asset investment growth [4][6] Export Dynamics - The export share of China is expected to continue rising, with the automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, playing a crucial role in this growth [9][10] - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remains stable at 14.2%, with a combined share with Hong Kong rising to 17% [9][10] - China is projected to become the world's largest automobile exporter, surpassing Germany and Japan, with exports expected to reach 586 million vehicles by 2024 [9][10] Regional Price Disparities - Different regions are experiencing varying pressures on price levels, with provinces reliant on traditional industries facing greater deflationary pressures compared to more dynamic regions like Beijing and Shanghai [10][11] - The GDP deflator index in regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is significantly lower than the national average, indicating economic challenges in these areas [10][11] Future Economic Outlook - The economic growth trajectory for 2026 is expected to follow a "V" shape, with initial low growth followed by a recovery, driven by resilient export growth and adjustments in the real estate sector [13][14] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, aligning with the long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the transition to a stock economy, highlighting the need for strategic responses to external economic pressures and the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Strategy and Policy - The conference indicates a shift in focus towards internal capabilities to address external challenges, with a commitment to "stability while seeking progress" as a guiding principle for economic work [2][3]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is identified as a key strategy to counter external shocks, with specific actions to boost consumer spending and increase residents' income [3][17]. - Investment policies will aim to stabilize and increase central budget investments, aligning with major project launches in the early years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][17]. Group 2: Trade and External Relations - The conference acknowledges the deepening impact of external environmental changes, reflecting a more confident stance in dealing with tariffs and technology restrictions [2][16]. - There is a focus on integrating trade and investment, as well as domestic and foreign trade, to enhance resilience in external demand [18]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while optimizing project implementation, with expectations for a slight increase in the fiscal deficit rate to 4.2-4.5% [19][20]. - Monetary policy will remain flexible, with anticipated adjustments including a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, while also considering price stability as a new objective [20][21]. Group 4: Innovation and Structural Reform - The conference stresses the importance of innovation-driven growth, with initiatives to develop new economic drivers and enhance the quality of existing industries [22][23]. - There is a commitment to reforming the market structure to prevent "involution" and promote a unified national market, ensuring that traditional industries are not neglected in favor of new developments [23]. Group 5: Real Estate and Risk Management - The conference outlines measures to stabilize the real estate market, including targeted policies for inventory reduction and supply optimization [24]. - It also addresses the need to manage risks in key areas such as local government debt and small financial institutions, indicating a proactive approach to financial stability [12][24].