Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, with gold surpassing $4,400 and silver reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has increased by 67% this year, breaking through the $3,000 and $4,000 thresholds, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [2]. - Silver has outperformed gold with a year-to-date increase of 138%, supported by strong investment inflows and ongoing supply constraints [2]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a weak U.S. dollar, which makes gold cheaper for overseas buyers, further boosting demand [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a strong upward trend, breaking past previous resistance levels, with a notable increase since November 18, indicating a sustained bullish momentum [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on potential pullbacks around $4,375 to $4,380 for buying opportunities, while being cautious of possible mid-term corrections [5][6]. - The technical outlook remains positive, with no immediate signs of a peak, although traders are advised to manage positions carefully to avoid losses from potential downturns [5][6]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested strategies include selling on rebounds near $4,420 to $4,425 with a target of $4,400 to $4,390, and buying on dips around $4,375 to $4,380 with a target of $4,400 to $4,420 [6]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses from sudden market movements [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and the continued delay of the restart of the Caspian Alliance Pipeline No. 3 SPM suggest a temporary wait - and - see approach [4] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the drawdown of US crude oil inventories was slightly better than expected, but the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories increased. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and there are positive progress in the peace talks. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions continues to decline, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US continue to fall. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, which may lead to concerns about export disruptions [4] - After Zelensky's compromise on the "joining the treaty" issue, crude oil prices hit a new low in the second half of the year. However, the US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and the expected full - storage of Venezuelan oil facilities led to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [9] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 12 decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.843 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 2.49 million barrels month - on - month to 412.1 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, with 21 consecutive weeks of increase [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cut - The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts, some believing it's a technical factor, and some worried about inflation and preferring to keep rates stable until next spring [18] Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the US - The crack spreads of gasoline in the US and Europe decreased by $1.0 per barrel and $1.5 per barrel respectively; the crack spreads of diesel in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.521 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 7.36% week - on - week to 9.078 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.647 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13%. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 8.95% week - on - week to 3.786 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.684 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%. The significant decline in diesel demand led to a 2.41% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 17, EIA data showed that as of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, slightly better than the expected decrease of 1.066 million barrels, and 4.47% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.062 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 1.712 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.178 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 742,000 barrels [34] Geopolitical Risks - The Ukrainian National Security Service attacked a Russian oil - transporting tanker in the Mediterranean. The Russian army advanced in various directions. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made constructive progress. Israeli officials plan to report a possible new strike on Iran to Trump. The US intercepted a tanker near Venezuela [39]

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historic high of nearly $4,400 per ounce, increasing by approximately 1.5% in a single day [1] - The A-share precious metals sector saw significant gains, with companies like Shengda Resources and Zijin Mining rising over 5% [1] - Physical gold prices reported by Chow Tai Fook were 1,368 CNY per gram for pure gold jewelry and 1,199 CNY per gram for gold bars [1] Group 2 - Long-term factors affecting gold prices include changes in the purchasing power of the dollar, central bank reserve behaviors, and geopolitical risks [2] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026, which is favorable for non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have increased the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [3] Group 3 - Gold is anticipated to oscillate at high levels while gradually returning to previous upward trends due to macroeconomic conditions and safe-haven demand [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict further increases in gold prices, setting a base scenario of $4,900 per ounce, with potential upside risks [4] - ETF investors are competing with central banks for limited gold supplies, indicating strong demand in the market [4]

北京商报讯（记者 宋亦桐 周义力）贵金属市场集体迎来"高光"时刻。12月22日，黄金、白银、铂金、 钯金四大贵金属品种同步发力，奏响上涨"主旋律"。Wind数据显示，截至15:00，伦敦金现盘中冲高至 4420.070美元/盎司，突破10月20日4381.48美元/盎司的前期高点，刷新历史纪录；伦敦银现更是首度站 上69美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及69.45美元/盎司，同步改写历史峰值。国际期货市场亦同步跟涨， COMEX黄金攀升至4443.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货冲高至69.525美元/盎司，均再创历史新高。 体工业需求的复苏程度，其走势与全球宏观经济景气度的绑定更深，与黄金的相关性可能减弱。"2026 年大概率将形成黄金引领、白银高波动跟随、铂金钯金回归自身供需基本面的分化格局。"武泽伟如是 说道。 行情火热之下，投资者的参与策略备受关注，明明提示，尽管当前宏观环境对贵金属板块整体有利，但 核心品种价格已处于历史高位区间，投资者需充分认知潜在风险，结合自身风险承受能力谨慎参与交 易。 武泽伟则进一步强调，投资者需理性认识本轮上涨的核心逻辑，其本质是长期驱动因素累积的结果，而 非短期投机炒作催生的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, the London spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce, marking a 67% increase from early 2025 when it was below $2,600 [1]. - International gold prices have shown a volatile upward trend since early December, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4% since the beginning of the month [2]. - COMEX gold prices reached a new historical high of $4,425 per ounce on December 22, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected non-farm employment increase and a rising unemployment rate, has led to expectations of a dovish monetary policy in 2026, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with a net addition of 1,045 tons in 2024, providing fundamental support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,750 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by persistent demand and limited supply [5]. - The market anticipates a structural imbalance between rigid demand and elastic supply, which will continue to support gold prices in the coming years [5]. - However, there are concerns about potential market corrections and geopolitical developments that could impact gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a trading range between $4,250 and $4,550 per ounce [5].

每经编辑｜陈柯名 潘海福 黄金再创新高！现货黄金首次站上4400美元/盎司，今年以来累涨近68%。 22日，现货黄金大幅拉升，截至发稿涨超1.6%，现报4410.285美元/盎司，创历史新高。纽约期金日内涨超1%，现报4434.6美元/盎司。 二级市场上，A股贵金属板块22日高开拉升，截至发稿涨超4%，晓程科技、湖南白银、西部黄金涨超5%，中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、四川黄金涨 超4%，赤峰黄金、招金黄金涨超3%。 | | | 贵金属 | 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 4378.10 4.30% | | | 成分股 基金 | | 简况(F10) 资金 | 分析 社区 | | 全部 | 龙头股 | 3日内有涨停 | 连板 连续3日主 | | 名称/代码 | | 最新 ◆ | 涨幅 ◆ ５日涨幅 ◆ ▶ | | 湖南白银 002716 | | 6.75 | +8.00% +7.47% | | 晓程科技 | | 71 21 | 47 720/ -2 070/ | | 300139 | JI.LI | T/ = / | 6.76/0 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis Main Contracts and Basis On December 19, 2025, the price of the SC main contract slightly declined to 426.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day, showing a downward trend during the session (falling from a high of 436.5 yuan). The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 55.9 dollars per barrel and 59.71 dollars per barrel, respectively, with no change. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.88 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 30.71%); the SC - WTI spread also weakened to 4.69 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 7.68%); the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.81 dollars per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 weakened to -3.9 yuan per barrel, deepening by 0.6 yuan (a decline of 18.18%), indicating increased pressure on near - month contracts [1]. Position and Trading Volume As of the week ending December 16, 2025, ICE Brent crude oil speculators' net long positions decreased by 74,876 lots to 32,940 lots, and ICE diesel net long positions decreased by 19,818 lots to 38,760 lots, indicating that market sentiment has turned cautious, and the outflow of speculative funds may reflect concerns about geopolitical risks. No specific trading volume data was provided [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis Supply Side On December 20, the Iraqi National Oil Company stated that the oil export agreement between Baghdad and Erbil was progressing smoothly, suggesting stable supply from OPEC+ members. On the same day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a Caspian Sea oil and gas drilling platform of Russia's Lukoil, intensifying geopolitical risks and potentially disrupting exports in the Caspian region. The US intercepted an oil tanker related to Venezuelan crude oil transportation last weekend and is still tracking another similar tanker, indicating a continuous tightening of policy enforcement. On December 19, Japan and Kazakhstan signed an energy cooperation agreement, which may increase Central Asian supply in the medium - to - long term. The exploration director of Mexico's state - owned oil company is expected to resign, bringing short - term uncertainties [3]. Demand Side The Indonesian Energy Minister announced the launch of the B50 biodiesel road test, planning to implement it in the second half of 2026, which may boost biodiesel demand in the long term but has limited short - term impact. There is no direct information on refined oil profits and refinery equipment. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has not been updated, and overall, the demand side lacks strong drivers [3]. Inventory Side As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424.417 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma decreased by 742,000 barrels to 20.86 million barrels. US gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels to 225.627 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 2.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 1.2 million barrels [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may enter a bottom - oscillation range, but geopolitical factors support prices to strengthen within the range. On the supply side, geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the stable Iraqi export agreement and the resumption of Venezuelan exports alleviate concerns about supply disruptions; OPEC+'s idle capacity and the limited impact of sanctions. On the demand side, the Indonesian B50 biodiesel test provides long - term benefits, but short - term refined oil demand lacks catalysts, and the delayed release of Chinese demand data increases uncertainties. Overall, geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions offset weak demand, and close attention should be paid to the development of international geopolitical situations [6].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have collectively surged, with multiple varieties reaching new highs, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and changing monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 22, spot gold prices exceeded $4,385 per ounce, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 65% [1][2]. - Spot silver broke the $68 per ounce mark, achieving a year-to-date increase of approximately 137% [3]. - Spot platinum rose over 3% to $2,002.3 per ounce, marking its first rise above $2,000 since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 120% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Global central bank purchases of gold are identified as a key variable disrupting traditional supply-demand balance, with expectations of a shift to looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve further benefiting gold prices [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion in November, marking six consecutive months of inflows, with total assets under management growing by 5.4% to $530 billion [5]. - Market confidence in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has decreased, with the probability of maintaining current rates rising to 79% [5]. Group 3: Economic Influences - Analysts note that the combination of ample liquidity and strong supply constraints is pushing commodity prices to challenge historical highs [6]. - The importance of basic raw materials for economic development is increasingly recognized by various countries, leading to the use of tariffs to secure these products, which exacerbates regional market gaps and drives prices upward [6]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, along with the processes of de-dollarization and geopolitical fragmentation, are expected to sustain and potentially expand the demand for gold as a credit hedge [6].

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Global major asset performance this week shows bonds outperforming stocks, REITs, and commodities, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index rising by 0.005% while the MSCI Global Stock Index fell by 0.05% [2] - The MSCI Global Stock Index decline was primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific markets, with developed markets performing better than emerging markets [3] - In the commodities sector, energy prices weakened across the board, while industrial metals and precious metals saw price increases [4] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The European stock markets outperformed the US and Japan, with the STOXX 600 Index rising by 1.60% and the FTSE 100 Index increasing by 2.57% [3] - Emerging markets faced declines, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down by 1.55%, and specific markets like Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.10% [3] - Financial, materials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors outperformed the global stock index, while information technology, consumer staples, telecommunications, industrials, and energy sectors lagged [3] Group 3: Commodity Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw price increases of 3.18% and 2.67%, respectively [4] - Gold prices rose by 0.91% to $4,338.88 per ounce, with silver prices increasing by 8.39% to $67.16 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [4][11] - The US bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 3.7 basis points to 4.148% [4] Group 4: Labor Market and Economic Data - The US labor market data indicated a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs in October, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing expectations [6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.5%, marking a four-year high [6] - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflationary pressures [6] Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.20% to 98.599, while the Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.23% against the dollar [5] - The Chinese Yuan appreciated by 0.1246% against the dollar, with the latest midpoint rate at 7.0550 [5] Group 6: REITs and Real Estate Insights - The global REITs index fell by 0.70%, with performance varying across markets, particularly in the UK, Japan, and Singapore [13] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [13] - The current environment of declining interest rates is favorable for both stock and bond attributes of REITs [13]