Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]

上周受渤化等装置提负影响，PVC产能利用率环比+0.70%至79.33%。上周管材开工率环比+1.05%至 48.34%，型材开工率环比-6.5%至34.15%。 截至5月8日，PVC社会库存新（41家）样本统计环比减少0.41%至65.10万吨，对外出口集中交付依旧带 动市场库存去化。 5月8日PVC常州市场价4660元/吨（-40），主力基差-179元/吨(+3），广州市场价4790元/吨（0），杭州 市场价4730元/吨（-40）。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年5月9日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4805元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持182689 手。 本周（5月6日-5月9日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4930元/吨，最高触及4960元/吨，最低下探至 4800元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.54%。 消息面回顾： 中辉期货：供给端，1月新增新浦化学50万吨装置投产。供给端高位承压，产能利用率为79%。需求 端，房地产竣工面积降幅收窄，下游开工率季节性下降。出口方面，2025年1-3月PVC累计出口98万 吨，累计同比+56%，5月台塑报价环比持平。综上，开工继续上行，上游累库，仓单持续注册， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82%, reaching $3333 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.8% [1] - COMEX silver futures rose by 0.84%, priced at $32.89 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.94% [1]

甲醇盘面延续弱势震荡。国产装置产能利用率持续大幅回升,内地多套烯烃装置停车检修,MTO行业开工率下 降,甲醇生产企业库存由降特升。进口到选量回升至中高位,江浙地区MTO装置开工率小幅提升,周期内港口呈 现黑阵。国内装置恢复叠加进口回归,内地以及港口或进入累库周期,后续需求预期延步转弱。供增需减,甲 酵行情弱势运行为主。 【尿素】 尿素主流区域现货价格稳中小涨,日内盘面先涨后跌。氮肥协会发布行业自律协议,近期出口放开的可能性较 大,但具体细则仍需等待官方发布。复合肥成品走货不佳,受尿素出口消息的提报不及预期,行业开工率持续 下降,后续农业备肥需求仍存在一定铁口。贸易商交投情绪浓厚,但厂家借信,生产企业库存下降。5月仍有新 增产能待投放,供应充足延续,若适量出口国内供应压力预期得到缓解,行情或维持区间震荡运行,持续关注 出口市场动态。 | 《》 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月09日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ...

2025 年 05 月 09 日 短纤：短期震荡市，关注需求的现实验证 瓶片：短期震荡市，关注需求的现实验证 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2505 | 6184 | 6200 | -16 | PF05-06 | -106 | 0 | -106 | | PF | 短纤2506 | 6290 | 6200 | 90 | PF06-07 | 38 | 142 | ー104 | | | 短纤2507 | 6252 | 6058 | 194 | PF基差 | 90 | 175 | -85 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 239730 | 225729 | 14001 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 380 | 6. 375 | 5 | | | 短纤成交量 | 271283 | 228643 | 42640 | 短纤产销率 | 69% | 127% | -58% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and limited time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low at the end of April. Be vigilant about lower - than - expected future shipments from Iran. In May, considering assumptions of Shenghong's shutdown and normal imports, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [2]. - For plastics, polyethylene has a neutral overall inventory situation. The 05 contract has a basis of +300 in North China and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. February's maintenance decreased, and domestic linear production increased. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - For PP, polypropylene's upstream and mid - stream inventories have increased during the holiday. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. PDH profit is around -600, and the draw production is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. In an over - capacity situation, the 05 contract is under pressure, which could be relieved by increased exports or monthly PDH device maintenance of 2 million tons [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the factory - pickup basis is -280. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the开工 rate may reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression should be monitored. Export orders are decent, and in April, attention should be paid to the ZZJ meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits with PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. PVC's comprehensive profit is -300. Current static inventory is high, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From April 29 to May 8, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 32, and the盘面MTO profit increased by 25 [2]. - **Inventory and Supply Outlook**: Iran's low shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory is expected to accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From April 29 to May 8, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged at 790, the North China LL price decreased by 30, and the华东LD price decreased by 50. The import profit remained at -44, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 485 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Polyethylene has a neutral overall inventory. The 05 contract basis is positive in North China and East China. Import profit is stable, and non - standard prices show different trends. New device pressure is a concern in 2025 [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From April 29 to May 8, the山东丙烯 price decreased by 70, the华东PP price decreased by 20, and the主力期货 price decreased by 44. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Polypropylene's upstream and mid - stream inventories have increased. The basis, non - standard price spreads, and import profit are at certain levels. With few future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand is average [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From April 29 to May 8, the西北电石 price remained unchanged, the山东烧碱 price increased by 12, and the电石 - based PVC price in East China decreased by 40 [11]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, downstream开工 is seasonal, and mid - and upstream inventories are decreasing. Spring maintenance may increase the开工 rate to 75%. Export orders are good, and various factors such as coal prices and macro policies should be monitored [11].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 库存小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面下跌后小幅反弹 市场分析 2025年5月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于63960元/吨，收于64280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为309284手，持仓量为267396手，较前一交易日减少9504手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳970 元/吨。所有合约总持仓433977手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加123069手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.88 。当日碳酸锂仓单36241手，较上个交易日减少3手。盘面：当日碳酸锂开盘偏弱， 空头短暂主导，尾盘拉升但缺乏持续性，最终收跌0.43%。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。周度产量增长至1.83万吨，环比增加3866吨， 周度库存小幅减少464吨至13.16万吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续大幅下移。在头部电芯厂客供比例进一步拉高 的情况下，下游材料厂采购意 ...

大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2505合约4154.00元/吨，较前日变化-82.00元/吨，幅度-1.94%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-34，较前日变化+82，幅度32.14%。 大豆用于压榨需求支撑减弱，价格震荡偏弱 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期价互有涨跌，因为中美贸易关系依然令人担忧，美国春播 工作进展顺利，截至收盘，大豆期货下跌4.25美分到上涨2.75美分不等，其中5月期约下跌4.25美分，报收1030.50 美分/蒲式耳;7月期约下跌2美分，报收1039.25美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨2.75美分，报收1022美分/蒲式耳。4月8日， 黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.05元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较昨日平； ...

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：空头减仓离场，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：澳矿港口报价上移，锰硅偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 5 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元 ...