消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙 光已现 20260629 摘要 中国经济增长引擎缺失，但出口复苏有望改善国内经济活动。企业偿债 现金流增速下降，资产负债表修复过半，出口正向冲击或带动高周转消 费修复，个人所得税反弹预示居民收入缓慢修复。 7 月投资策略应规避流动性驱动资产，关注基本面改善的服务消费和高 周转商品消费。新消费核心驱动力在于创造新场景和业态，关注高周转、 低杠杆的服务性消费及耐用消费品出口。 内需方面，消费板块投资偏向"红利加"品种，关注情绪价值消费（潮 玩、宠物）、功能价值消费（AI+）、消费出海和渠道变革（海澜之家 等）。 商贸零售面临供给过剩和需求不足挑战，关注新需求带来的边际机会， 包括传统渠道变革和即时零售崛起。新需求集中于服务性消费，跨境出 海企业需关注供应链、品牌溢价和渠道溢价能力。 2025 年 618 电商大促符合预期，抖音增速超预期，呈现全域协同趋势， 国补品类是增长动力，即时零售表现突出。线下零售渠道调整加速，永 辉超市调改店规模化，胖东来模式门店数量预计快速增长。 Q&A 当前宏观经济背景下，消费板块面临哪些挑战与机遇，尤其是在流动性与基本 面层面？ ...

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 2025 年 06 月 29 日 三大平台密集调整战略，行业竞争 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《小商品城（600415）深度：数智化赋能 贸易升级，产业链筑基关税破局》 2025/06/17 《5 月社零同比+6.4%，国补相关品类及 金银增速领先——5 月社会零售品消费数 据点评》 2025/06/16 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵令伊 (8621)23297818× zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 转向效率与协同 看好 ——商贸零售行业周报（6.23-6.27） 相关研究 ⚫ 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 6 月 23 日至 2025 年 6 月 27 日期间，社会服务指数 上涨 4.61%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 2.66pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 8 位。商贸零售 指数上涨 4.56%，相较于沪深 300 指数上涨 2.60p ...

Core Insights - The total social logistics volume in China reached 138.7 trillion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a stabilization in logistics demand recovery [1] - In May, logistics operations remained generally stable, with a slight deceleration in growth but an optimization in structure, particularly in industrial goods logistics which grew by 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The logistics service prices remained stable in May, with major express companies experiencing rapid growth in express business volume, although the revenue per shipment declined year-on-year [1] Group 1: Logistics Demand and Performance - The logistics demand growth rate is stabilizing, with industrial goods logistics showing resilience and consumer logistics recovering due to policies promoting consumption [1] - The logistics revenue of key surveyed logistics companies increased by 6.5% year-on-year from January to May, indicating stable profitability among logistics entities [1] - The logistics demand for units and residential goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old goods and the holiday economy [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Trends - The logistics demand is expected to remain stable throughout the year, supported by policies for equipment updates and consumer logistics recovery [2] - The logistics business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for three consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for logistics markets in areas like iron-water intermodal transport and low-altitude economy [2] - There is a need for coordinated development of logistics supply and demand, with an emphasis on innovative logistics organizational models to enhance economic efficiency and strengthen logistics support for supply chains [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of Pop Mart's business model and the broader changes in consumer investment trends, emphasizing the importance of long-term perspectives in investment decisions [2] Group 1: Business Model Evolution - Pop Mart's initial business model was a "store within a store" concept focused on creative products, which has evolved through multiple iterations to its current form [2] - The management partner of Huaying Capital, Wang Weiwei, highlights that investment should not only focus on the present but also consider long-term cycles [2] Group 2: Consumer Investment Trends - After a surge in consumer investment from 2021 to 2022, the sector is expected to face a downturn in 2024, with a potential recovery in 2025 as leading Hong Kong consumer stocks see significant valuation increases [2] - Huaying Capital has accelerated its investment pace this year, with total investments reaching three times that of the previous year, focusing on efficiency-driven companies and emotional consumption sectors [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The consumer industry faces inherent efficiency bottlenecks, with offline consumption limited by geographical constraints, creating opportunities for small and medium enterprises [3] - Wang Weiwei notes that the competitive landscape in the consumer sector is intense, requiring companies to excel in product, brand, channel, and capital operations [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Valuation - The valuation logic in consumer investment has shifted from price-to-sales (PS) to price-to-earnings (PE) methods, with a general cap of 10 times PE expected in 2024 [4] - Despite the changing landscape, the overall valuations of consumer projects have not shown significant changes this year [4] Group 5: Exit Strategies and M&A Opportunities - Huaying Capital is increasingly favoring Hong Kong listings for exits, as the market offers high certainty and low opportunity costs, especially with the recovery of consumer sector valuations [4] - The next five years are anticipated to witness a wave of industry consolidation, with five key M&A opportunities identified, including the scaling of small enterprises and the modernization of family business governance [5]

文 | 智见Time，作者 | 临泽，编辑 | 经纬 面对行业大变局，阿里巴巴持续变阵——而蒋凡的角色变得越来越重要。 6 月 26 日，阿里巴巴集团 2025 财年年报，在披露了财务成绩的同时，阿里巴巴更新了合伙人信息。其 中张勇、俞永福、彭蕾等 9 人退出合伙人之列，阿里合伙人仅剩 17 人，为阿里巴巴 2014 年上市以来最 低人数。 值得关注的是，阿里合伙人 17 人团队的核心，也就是负责选举合伙人的「阿里巴巴合伙人委员会」， 也进行了更新——5 名人员中，彭蕾离开，替代她的，是担任阿里巴巴电商事业群 CEO 的蒋凡。 其他四位分别是马云、蔡崇信、邵晓峰、吴泳铭。 而蒋凡，不仅仅是阿里巴巴合伙人中最年轻的一位，也是阿里巴巴合伙人委员会中最年轻、最晚加入阿 里的一位。 值得一提的是，此前在 6 月 23 日，阿里巴巴集团 CEO 吴泳铭宣布，饿了么和飞猪并入到阿里中国电商 事业群。在人事方面，无论是继续担任饿了么董事长兼 CEO 的吴泽明，还是继续担任飞猪 CEO 的庄卓 然，都将向蒋凡汇报。 这意味着，蒋凡在阿里巴巴的角色，变得更加重要。 此处的大背景是，进入到 2025 年，随着京东入局外卖市场和美 ...

经历风波三年，回归"内阁"短短两年的蒋凡，赫然出现在委员 会中。上述接近管理层人士直言：这位年轻少将已重回阿里的 权力中心。 作者：钱玉娟 封图：东方IC 6月26日晚，阿里巴巴集团（NYSE：BABA/09988.HK）在2025财年年报中披露，包括张勇、俞 永福、戴珊等在内的9人退出阿里合伙人名单。 一位接近阿里巴巴集团管理层的人士告诉经济观察报，除了保障企业文化和价值观的传承，阿里合 伙人更像是长期维护公司战略发展与增长的"内阁"。 经历风波三年，回归"内阁"短短两年的蒋凡，赫然出现在委员会中。上述接近管理层人士直言：这 位年轻少将已重回阿里的权力中心。 蒋凡被擢升进入最高决策层，与其辖下业务变阵后紧密衔接。 6月23日，吴泳铭的全员信宣布，饿了么、飞猪合并入阿里中国电商事业群，两家公司的CEO吴泽 明、庄卓然均向蒋凡汇报。这是继2024年11月国内、国际电商合并成为电商事业群后，阿里在核 心电商业务上的又一次变阵重组。 将近场、酒旅等电商服务业务汇入淘宝天猫、1688、闲鱼等在内的中国电商事业群，作为电商掌 舵人的蒋凡管辖范畴继续扩大。 这位曾推动淘宝实现增长神话的操盘手，再次背靠阿里的电商消费生态， ...

Group 1: Product Development - The company plans to launch a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is developing a 6-degree product to meet the demand for lower-alcohol beverages [1][3][4] - The low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 has increased its proportion from 15% to 50%, becoming a new growth driver for the company [3][4] - The company aims to capture the younger demographic, which prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and visually appealing products [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [4] - The Guojiao brand remains in the 20 billion yuan category, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand has surpassed 10 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Channels - The company noted a significant growth in instant retail, with a market size nearing 20 billion yuan and an expected penetration rate of 6% by 2027 [5][6] - E-commerce live streaming has become a core platform for new product launches, with sales figures showing explosive growth [5][6] Group 4: Industry Insights - The chairman stated that the idea of simultaneous volume and price increases is a fallacy, emphasizing that achieving one often requires sacrificing the other [10] - The company sees substantial market potential, with only 1/10 of the market share in cities and less than 1% in county-level markets [12] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company approved a dividend plan for 2024-2026, ensuring that cash dividends will not be less than 65%, 70%, and 75% of the net profit for those years, respectively [13][15] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 45.92 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 6.759 billion yuan, which is about 65% of the net profit [13][15]

Core Insights - Alibaba is undergoing significant organizational changes, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce division to enhance its consumer platform strategy [1][2] - The company reported strong financial results for fiscal year 2025, with revenues reaching 996.347 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [1][2] - The shift towards a "big consumption platform" reflects a strategic upgrade aimed at optimizing business models and enhancing user experiences [1][9] Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue was 996.347 billion yuan, with a net profit of 125.976 billion yuan, marking a 77% year-on-year increase [1][2] - Alibaba Cloud experienced double-digit revenue growth, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, which saw triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1][2] - The international digital commerce group's revenue grew by 29% year-on-year, indicating robust performance in cross-border business [1][2] Business Adjustments - The merger of Ele.me and Fliggy into the China e-commerce division is part of a broader strategy to create a more integrated consumer experience [1][3] - The company has exited non-core assets like Hema and Intime, focusing on improving operational efficiency across its internet platforms [2][8] - A significant reduction in the number of partners from 26 to 17 reflects a shift towards a younger and more focused leadership team [2][9] Market Trends - The rise of instant retail is highlighted as a key trend, with Ele.me's integration into Alibaba's e-commerce strategy expected to enhance its competitive edge in this space [3][4] - The concept of "big consumption" emphasizes the importance of efficiently meeting existing consumer demands rather than solely pursuing new market opportunities [10][11] - The integration of online and offline channels is seen as essential for capturing consumer spending, with a focus on creating a seamless shopping experience [12][13]

Core Insights - The shift from community group buying to instant retail is reshaping the consumer landscape in China, with major companies like Alibaba and Meituan making strategic adjustments to capture market share [1][3][4] - Instant retail is seen as a response to the limitations of community group buying, which has struggled with profitability and market saturation [4][10] - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with companies leveraging their supply chains and logistics to enhance service offerings [6][8][9] Company Strategies - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce business group, emphasizing instant retail as a top priority [5][9] - Meituan is expanding its instant retail strategy by enhancing its flash purchase categories and increasing the number of small supermarkets [5][8] - JD.com is also entering the instant retail space, utilizing its existing supply chain advantages to offer services like "second delivery" [9][10] Market Dynamics - The instant retail market is characterized by a focus on speed and variety, with companies aiming to meet consumer demands for quick delivery and diverse product offerings [6][7] - High-tier cities are the primary battleground for instant retail, where consumers are less price-sensitive and more willing to pay for convenience [11][12] - The competition is fierce, with multiple players vying for market share, leading to potential saturation and price wars [11][12] Challenges - The profitability of instant retail remains uncertain, as companies must balance operational costs with competitive pricing strategies [12][13] - Companies face the challenge of convincing consumers to accept higher prices or increased delivery times in exchange for better service [13] - The rapid entry of new players into the market could lead to oversaturation, making it difficult for any single company to dominate [12][13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of local retail logic driven by the rise of instant retail, particularly in the liquor industry, where offline merchants are adapting to new consumer demands for faster and more convenient purchasing options [2][3][18]. Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - Instant retail has enabled offline merchants to actively reach consumers rather than passively waiting for them to visit stores, leading to significant sales increases during events like the 618 shopping festival [2][3]. - During the 618 event, liquor sales saw explosive growth, with some brands reporting a tenfold increase in GMV compared to the previous year, despite being in a traditionally slow season [3][5]. - The overall liquor sales on the first day of the 618 event exceeded 3 billion yuan, marking a more than 200-fold increase compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are increasingly favoring instant retail for its convenience, with a notable shift in purchasing habits towards immediate delivery options, which is expected to continue even after promotional pricing ends [9][12]. - The demand for liquor, particularly for immediate consumption scenarios, has surged, with instant retail platforms effectively addressing the need for quick access to products [5][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The instant retail sector is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan for liquor by 2027, indicating a strong future for this segment [19]. - Major brands are adapting to this trend by developing new products tailored for instant consumption and enhancing their collaboration with instant retail platforms like Meituan [15][20]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - Instant retail is transforming the operational models of offline merchants, allowing them to utilize data-driven decision-making and improve supply chain efficiency [3][18]. - Meituan's instant retail platform has connected nearly 1 million offline stores, providing a robust network that supports local businesses in reaching consumers effectively [20][22].