中国策略 China Strategy 震荡蓄势中等待进一步催化 Consolidating and Awaiting Further Catalysts [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Nov 2025 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场调整幅度有限，整体仍属逢低配置的阶段性机会，在科技完成回调之后，叠加政策预期升温， 市场有望重拾升势。本周市场在海外流动性影响下探底后回升。市场经历反弹后，A股大盘指数已再度接近前高， 但成交量尚未有效放大，市场突破前高存在一定阻力，短期内仍需时间蓄势整理。 由于美国政府停摆打压经济预期，叠加通胀压力加剧家庭财务担忧，美国消费者信心跌至三年新低。密歇根大学 11月初值情绪指数从53.6降至50.3，为2022年 ...

Core Insights - Deflation pressures in China eased in October as consumer prices returned to growth after two months of decline, while producer prices continued to fall for three consecutive years due to weak domestic demand and declining exports [1][2][3] Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (CPI) for October was reported at 0.2%, surpassing analysts' expectations of flat growth, following a 0.3% decline in September [2] - Month-on-month, consumer prices also increased by 0.2%, again exceeding expectations of no growth [2] Producer Prices - Producer prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, slightly better than the expected 2.2% decline, marking three years of negative growth [3] - Month-on-month, producer prices saw a marginal increase of 0.1% [3] Economic Policies and Domestic Demand - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand have started to show positive effects, aided by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4] - Industrial profits in September rose over 21%, indicating some success in curbing price wars and stimulating demand [5] Manufacturing Activity - Manufacturing activity in October contracted more than anticipated, reaching its lowest level in six months, with significant declines in production, new orders, raw material inventory, and employment [6] Export Challenges - Trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic consumer confidence have created demand uncertainty for Chinese producers, with exports unexpectedly contracting in October [7] - Shipments to the U.S. experienced a 25% decline, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit decreases [7] Future Outlook - A potential easing of export challenges may arise from a trade truce agreed upon by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping [8] - China's leadership emphasized the need to boost domestic consumption while balancing it with effective investment strategies [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade consultations have achieved positive results, and the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The Fourth Plenary Session released the conference communiqué, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" was released, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological innovation. The technology sector rebounded significantly, and the energy storage sector continued to explode, extending to upstream battery cell materials. In the medium to long term, the domestic market is driven by internal factors, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, and the stock index still has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The international situation is complex, but the Sino-US economic and trade consultations have reached consensus in multiple aspects such as tariffs and maritime affairs. The US has entered a new interest rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds. The current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five-Year Plan" raises the requirements for scientific and technological innovation and expands domestic demand, with the major policy directions for the next five years taking shape. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium to long-term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle. The future performance of the index depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on allocating technology growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low-valued defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rose slightly. The weekly and year-to-date changes of major domestic indices are as follows: the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed mixed performance, with sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals rising significantly, while sectors such as beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology declined [11][15]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained in a continuous slump. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real economic financing demand still takes time. The M1 - M2 "scissors gap" continued to narrow. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 009.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the consecutive decline. The M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in negative growth for seven consecutive months [13][16]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, and the index strengthened in a volatile manner. The monthly new account openings showed fluctuations. The trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [26]. Index Valuation - As of November 8, 2020, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.64, with a quantile of 84.47, and the latest PB was 22.20, with a quantile of 85.48. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The index valuation is at an absolute low level [34]. Index Industry Weight - As of June 30, 2025, the weights of the SSE 50 in banking, non-bank finance, and food and beverage are relatively high, accounting for 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth-largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 are more diversified, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non-bank finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 1000 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [42][43]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target, implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates were lowered, and a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" were summarized, and policies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" were set. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué put forward 7 major goals and 12 major deployments for the "15th Five-Year Plan", focusing on science and technology and expanding domestic demand [48][49]. - The US Federal Reserve is about to enter a new interest rate cut cycle, with a 25BP rate cut in October. As of November 7, the probability of another rate cut in December exceeds 60%, and there may be one more rate cut this year [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on enhancing consumer spending and investment efficiency [1][2][6] - The government aims to optimize the investment structure by stimulating private investment and increasing government investment in consumption-related sectors to promote a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption [2][12] - There is a recognition of the need to invest in both physical assets (infrastructure, machinery) and human capital (education, healthcare) to support sustainable economic growth and improve living standards [6][9][11] Group 2 - The government plans to implement significant landmark projects in urban renewal, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects, while ensuring that infrastructure investment continues to grow appropriately [8][14] - The strategy includes enhancing the quality of public services and addressing the needs of an aging population, thereby increasing demand for services in healthcare, elderly care, and cultural tourism [7][8] - The government will focus on improving the investment environment for private enterprises, ensuring fair competition, and providing financing support to stimulate private sector investment [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing consumer spending and effective investment to drive economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Consumer Spending - The government aims to boost resident consumption by optimizing the environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [1][2]. - Measures will be taken to enhance residents' income share in national income distribution, with a focus on increasing government funding for social welfare [1][6]. - The article highlights the need to address the challenges of paid leave and improve mechanisms to ensure its implementation [1]. Group 2: Effective Investment - The government plans to optimize investment structure by stimulating private investment and enhancing the role of government investment in driving consumption-related sectors [2][10]. - There is a focus on improving investment efficiency, particularly in transportation and energy sectors, to address issues of "heavy investment, light returns" [2][10]. - The article discusses the importance of deepening investment and financing system reforms, utilizing new policy financial tools, and enhancing public-private partnerships [2][10]. Group 3: Investment in People - The article stresses the significance of investing in human capital alongside physical assets, highlighting the need for investments in education, healthcare, and skills training [5][6]. - It points out that the return on investment in physical assets has been declining, necessitating a shift towards enhancing human capital to foster new productivity [6][8]. - The government is encouraged to prioritize public funding for comprehensive development across all demographics and life stages [8][12]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Major Projects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see the implementation of significant landmark projects in urban renewal, strategic transportation, and new energy systems [7][10]. - The government aims to maintain appropriate growth in infrastructure investment while ensuring it does not exceed necessary levels [7][10]. - Key projects will also focus on service consumption areas such as elderly care, healthcare, and cultural tourism to meet the evolving needs of the population [7][10]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that local governments should shift from traditional competition models to optimizing human capital and creating a conducive environment for investment [8][14]. - It emphasizes the need for clear delineation between government and private investment roles to stimulate private sector participation [12][14]. - The article advocates for enhancing the investment environment for private enterprises, ensuring fair competition, and providing necessary support for risk management [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption through various measures [1][2][3] Group 2 - Gradually increase rural elderly pensions to improve living standards and reduce the financial burden on their children, which in turn can enhance consumption [1] - Raise the minimum wage level, as the current increase has lagged behind the national GDP growth, negatively impacting the lower-income population [1] - Increase childbirth subsidies and invest in social childcare institutions to encourage higher birth rates, with a focus on enhancing financial support for families [1] Group 3 - Gradually expand the proportion of villas and low-density communities to improve living standards, particularly in areas with low population density, which can lead to increased purchases of household goods [2] Group 4 - Increase people's rest time by enforcing stricter regulations on overtime work, ensuring weekends off, and implementing paid annual leave, with advanced regions setting an example [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance's report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while enhancing coordination with other policies to promote economic recovery and growth [5][6][10]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need to effectively utilize a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring budget execution responsibility and enhancing the efficiency and security of fund usage [1][2]. - It mentions the continuation of special actions to boost consumption, including fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans in key sectors [1][6]. - The report outlines the issuance of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption upgrades, which has already driven sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in related categories [6][16]. Group 2: Risk Management - The Ministry of Finance will continue to focus on preventing and resolving risks in key areas, implementing a comprehensive debt management policy while monitoring and analyzing fiscal operations [2][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable financial environment at the grassroots level and addressing hidden debt issues promptly [2][8]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Innovation - The report stresses the need to cultivate new growth drivers by enhancing industrial innovation and technology supply, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector [3][22]. - It highlights the allocation of 398.12 billion yuan for central-level technology funding, marking a 10% increase from the previous year, aimed at supporting key technological projects [6][23]. Group 4: Investment and Consumption - The report indicates a collaborative effort to stimulate domestic demand through consumption and investment, with a focus on effective government investment [15][18]. - It mentions the issuance of 5.55 billion yuan in special bonds to support various investment projects, including infrastructure and housing [18][19]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - The report outlines measures to stabilize and expand employment, with 667.4 billion yuan allocated for employment support, resulting in 6.95 million new urban jobs in the first half of the year [28][29]. - It emphasizes the enhancement of social security systems, including pension and healthcare support, to improve the welfare of citizens [27][35]. Group 6: Environmental Protection and Sustainability - The report details efforts to implement pollution prevention strategies, with significant funding allocated for air and water quality improvement projects [40][41]. - It highlights the commitment to achieving carbon neutrality and promoting green development through various initiatives and funding [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new growth momentum in China's economy through enhanced fiscal policies, support for innovation, and investment in key industries, while ensuring the stability of employment and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic recovery [3][4]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate significant retail sales [4][15]. - The central government plans to increase its technology funding to 398.12 billion yuan in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, focusing on core technology and strategic industries [5][21]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by boosting consumption and effective investment, with a focus on key sectors and weak links [13][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, completing 42.7% of the annual target [16]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a 10.3% increase in industrial investment, driven by government support for technological upgrades [17]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - Education spending increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving quality and access to education [29][30]. - Basic public health service funding reached 804.35 billion yuan, enhancing health management and disease prevention efforts [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government is implementing measures to mitigate financial risks, including the management of local government debt and the promotion of real estate market stability [7][9]. - A comprehensive approach to fiscal management is being adopted, including reforms in tax systems and budget execution to ensure effective use of resources [7][12]. Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The report highlights the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting key technology projects [20][21]. - Funding for basic research is set to increase by 12.1%, emphasizing the need for original innovation and support for research institutions [21][22]. Group 6: Environmental and Social Development - The government is committed to ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [38][39]. - Social welfare programs are being expanded, with increased support for vulnerable populations and efforts to improve living standards [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand, enhance consumption, and support economic recovery amid complex external challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving budget execution and ensuring effective use of funds [2][3]. - It mentions the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption, particularly in key sectors like automotive and home appliances, which has already driven sales of 1.6 trillion yuan [3][12]. - The report outlines the importance of local government special bonds and long-term treasury bonds in enhancing financial cooperation and encouraging private investment [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Investment - The report indicates that the central government has allocated 398.12 billion yuan for technology funding, marking a 10% increase from the previous year, to support innovation and industrial upgrades [4][20]. - It emphasizes the need for effective investment in infrastructure and key industries, with a focus on modern transportation systems and manufacturing technology upgrades [15][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 555 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, representing 42.7% of the annual target [15][16]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The report states that 667.4 billion yuan has been allocated for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - It highlights the increase in education spending to 2.15 trillion yuan, a 5.9% year-on-year growth, to improve educational resources and quality [29][30]. - The report also mentions the enhancement of basic public health services, with 804.35 billion yuan allocated for public health service subsidies [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management - The report stresses the importance of risk prevention and management, particularly in addressing hidden debts and ensuring local government financial stability [5][10]. - It outlines measures to curb new hidden debt and emphasizes the need for strict supervision of local government financing platforms [5][10]. Group 5: Environmental and Ecological Initiatives - The report allocates 340 billion yuan for air pollution control and 267 billion yuan for water pollution prevention, aiming to improve environmental quality [38][39]. - It highlights the commitment to carbon neutrality and ecological restoration, with significant funding directed towards these initiatives [40][41].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 07 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场冲高振荡，有色金属、电子、通信等顺周期板块领涨。Wind | | | | 全 A 收涨 1.19%，成交额 2.08 万亿元，中证 1000 指数上涨 1.17%，中证 500 | | | | 指数上涨 1.16%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.43%，上证 50 指数上涨 1.22%。中美 | | | | 元首近日于韩国举行会谈，双边关系向着稳中向好的方向迈进，有利于我国 | | | | 需求总量的提升，也有利于 A 股科技股继续对标美股估值。《中国共产党第 | | | | 二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》聚焦几大主线：（1）"抓住新一轮 | | | 股指 | 科技革命和产业变革历史机遇"并形成现代化产业体系；（2）继续扩大内需， | 震荡 | | | "促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动"；（3）继续深化改革和扩大开放。 | | | | 《公报》内容符合市场预期，提振市场信心，预计未来结构化行情仍将延续。 | | ...