投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月27日08时19分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 需求方面，上周五大钢材品种整体产量基本维持不变 ，表观需求环比回落，库存增加。目前市场仍处于消费淡季，铁水产量大概率仍将沿着季节性 趋势回落，上周 247 家样本钢厂铁水产量基本维持不变 。由于今年春节较晚，节前的补库需求到来时间也会晚于往年 ，钢材表观需求的好转或主要 因年末抢工期所致，钢材以及铁水产量暂时不会大幅上升 ，但回落的空间也不大。供应端，全球发运继续回落，到港量下降，港口库存的不断回升 。技术面上，期价突破近期震荡区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Guotou Silver LOF indicates a suspension of subscription (including regular investment) starting January 28, coinciding with a significant rise in silver prices in the secondary market [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 21:50, spot silver has increased by over 5%, reaching $109.37 per ounce [2] - COMEX silver futures surged by more than 7%, with an intraday spike of 9% [2] - The main contract for Shanghai silver futures rose by over 5% [2] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On January 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading limits for non-futures company members and special overseas non-broker participants in silver and tin futures [2] - The maximum number of intraday opening trades for silver futures contracts AG2602 to AG2701 is set at 800 lots [2] - For tin futures contracts SN2602 to SN2701, the maximum number of intraday opening trades is limited to 200 lots [2] - The opening trade quantity for hedging and market-making transactions is not subject to these restrictions [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures from January 26 - 30, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a volatile state. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable last week. As of January 23, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9050 yuan/ton, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [8] - The mid - term strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach [9] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and this week's suggestion is the same [12] Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are currently on an upward trend. The spot price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose last week. As of January 23, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 161,500 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,550 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward phase, and the main force has no obvious long - or short - bias. Due to its large volatility, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [34][35] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the bottom of lithium carbonate rose, and the main contract was advised to focus on the support in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan. This week, it is advised to focus on the support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan [38][39] Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [44]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 | | | | 【行情复盘】 截至 01 月 23 日： | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | RU2605 合约收盘价为 16315 元/吨，日涨幅 2.93%。 NR2603 合约收盘价为 13095 元/吨，日涨幅 2.83%。 | | | | | BR2603 合约收盘价为 12930 元/吨，日涨幅 5.38%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.周五泰国原料胶水价格 57.6 泰铢/公斤（0.3/0.52%），杯胶价格 53 泰铢/公斤 | | | | | （0.8/1.53%）。 | | | | | 2.截至 2026 年 1 月 18 日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量 58.49 万吨， | | | | | 环比上期增加 1.67 万吨，增幅 2.94%。保税区库存 ...

早盘提示 重要事项: 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周五夜盘主力合约期货 | BZ2603 | 价格上涨 | 58 | 元至 | 6091 | 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 格 | 5940 | 元/吨（环比+50），山东地区现货价格 | 5934 | 元/吨（环比+118）。持仓方面， | 多头减少 | 567 | 手至 | 2.13 | 万手，空头减少 | 8 ...

| | 20260126申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | 111 I | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 1402. 5 1157. 0 1235.5 | | | 1890. 0 | 1722. 0 | 1791.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 1367.0 1131.5 1203.0 | | | 1863. 0 | 1688.0 | 1758.0 | | E | 准胜 35.5 25. 5 32.5 | | | 27.0 | 34.0 | 33.5 | | सह | 张跌幅 2. 60% 2. 25% 2. 70% | | | 1. 45% | 2. 01% | 1. 91% | | E | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on rebar and iron ore futures from January 26th to January 30th, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Rebar Futures Analysis 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output is 2 million tons, the apparent consumption is 1.85 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.48 million tons, and the social inventory is 4.88 million tons. The market attention has slightly declined. A grid trading strategy is recommended with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grid numbers [7] 2.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range. This week, a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [10][11][12] 2.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][28] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Analysis 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the fourth week of an oscillatory recovery phase. The global shipment volume last week was 29.29 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 26.59 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 93.88 million tons, and the inventory at domestic major ports was 167.66 million tons. The mid - term trend is in a red ladder channel. Steel production enterprises can consider a long - hedging strategy [34] 3.2 Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - term price of iron ore was in the third week of the red ladder channel. This week, steel production and downstream demand enterprises can consider implementing a long - hedging strategy in steps at a 30% ratio [37] 3.3 Related Data - The data sources of the report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [50]

Week5: MSK开舱2450 (环比-300) , PA2400 (特价2200) , OA2500-2700美金。中枢2500美金, 折盘1750点, 消息面 Week6: MSK开舱2050 (环比-400) , PA2200附近, MSC2340, OA2400-2500美金, 中枢2320美金, 折盘1625点, | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持色变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1717.7 | 0.59% | 236.5 | 532 | | 4401 | -280 | | | EC2604 | | 1138.3 | 0.05% | 815.9 | 30781 | | 41149 | 379 | | | EC2606 | | 1412.9 | 0.99% | 541.3 | 4476 | | 5791 | 908 | | | ...

| | 20260126申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | 111 I | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 1402. 5 1157. 0 1235.5 | | | 1890. 0 | 1722. 0 | 1791.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 1367.0 1131.5 1203.0 | | | 1863. 0 | 1688.0 | 1758.0 | | E | 准胜 35.5 25. 5 32.5 | | | 27.0 | 34.0 | 33.5 | | सह | 张跌幅 2. 60% 2. 25% 2. 70% | | | 1. 45% | 2. 01% | 1. 91% | | E | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, due to production cuts by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology, polysilicon production decreased in January and February, and inventory significantly accumulated. The spot price has dropped, and future prices are expected to decline further under high inventory and weak demand. The short - term futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. - For industrial silicon, downstream demand has weakened due to organic silicon and polysilicon production cuts. Although there are unconfirmed rumors of large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers, if they materialize, it will reverse the supply - demand situation in February. The futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise after actual production cuts. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: Tongwei Co., Ltd. stopped all polysilicon production, and GCL Technology cut production. In January, production dropped to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it fell below 85,000 tons. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers soared to 330,000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot market transactions increased, with a volume of nearly 30,000 tons in the second half of the week and a price range of 45 - 49 yuan/kg. The spot price has significantly decreased, and future prices may continue to fall, with a support level of 42 - 45 yuan/kg [4]. - **Futures Market**: With low trading volume and increased random fluctuations in the market, a short - term bearish view is recommended, with a reference price range of (45000, 52000). Attention should be paid to next week's important meetings [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a bearish view and participate cautiously due to low trading volume. There are no recommendations for arbitrage and options [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly production of DMC decreased by 0.61% to 42,900 tons, polysilicon production decreased by 7.4% to 20,400 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [6]. - **Trading Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened due to production cuts in organic silicon and polysilicon. If the large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers are implemented, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons, reversing the supply - demand situation in February. The rumors of production cuts have boosted manufacturers' confidence in holding prices. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate strongly, and it may rise after actual production cuts [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a reference price range of (8600, 9500). There are no recommendations for options and arbitrage [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, while the spot price changed little, and there was no large - scale hedging [10]. - **Downstream Demand**: The production of DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was slightly adjusted. The weekly production of DMC was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 0.61%, and the weekly production of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, a decrease of 7.4%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3% [13]. - **Production**: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. If major manufacturers implement production cuts, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon, DMC, and terminal products remained stable this week [30][34]. - **Intermediate Fundamental Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates was slightly adjusted [40]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [44]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable this week [48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Product Prices**: This week, the prices of some polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, while the prices of batteries and components increased. For example, the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 2.02% compared to the previous weekend [52]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: From April 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components will be cancelled, leading to potential export rush in January - March. The estimated production in January will increase to around 40GW. The European and domestic component inventories are at a moderately low level [60]. - **Battery Chip Fundamental Data**: The export tax rebate for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The estimated production in January will increase to around 48GW [61]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 26.78GW. With the cancellation of the export tax rebate, there is still demand for export rush, and the estimated production in January may increase to 50GW [67]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory increased to 330,000 tons. In January, due to production cuts by GCL Technology and Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production decreased to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it will be reduced to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [72].