Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces challenges in achieving its inflation target due to a significant appreciation of the euro, which has risen approximately 14% since January [1][4] - ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that a sustained 10% rise in the euro could lower inflation by 0.2 percentage points annually over the next three years, increasing the risk of not meeting the inflation target [1] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that a rise in the euro to above 1.20 USD could complicate matters, highlighting concerns about the negative impact of currency appreciation on exporters [4] Group 2 - Villeroy emphasized that the ECB will not adjust its policies to target specific exchange rates, acknowledging the significant impact of euro appreciation on inflation [4] - The ECB is expected to maintain a flexible approach, with Villeroy suggesting that further easing of monetary policy may be necessary in the next six months [4][6] - Current inflation in France has been below 2% since August of the previous year, dropping to 0.7% in May, which is the lowest level in over four years [6]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：正密切关注汇率波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1652, marking a decrease of 41 points compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB exchange rate reflects a downward trend against the US dollar [1] - The specific closing rate indicates a notable shift in currency valuation [1]

智通财经7月4日电，台币兑美元下跌0.3%至28.915。 ...

新台币兑美元下跌0.3%至28.915。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese dollar depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a rate of 28.915 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a slight weakening of the Taiwanese dollar in the foreign exchange market [1]

港币流动性仍将维持相对充裕的状态，港股更重要的影响因素仍是基本面。 如上所述，当前短期 限美港利差仍然维持在3%-4%的高位，历史上看如此之高的美港利差很难持续，因此港币流动性 逐步被回收，Hibor利率逐步上行是应有之义。但同时在美元偏弱、南向流入和港股IPO大幅增加 的背景下，港币需求增加是确定性的，因此我们认为回收过后港币流动性仍将维持在较此前更为充 裕的状态下。港股最大的基本面是国内经济，从历史上看港股与国内经济指标的相关性远高于港币 利率，Hibor上升对港股的影响更多是情绪冲击。基本面上看，港股股东回报改善，具有全球竞争 力的优质公司供给增加，随着稳增长政策的进一步发力，我们仍坚定看好港股的中长期表现。 ▲向上滑动阅览 【免责声明】 本材料由上海重阳投资管理股份有限公司（简称"重阳投资"）原创并编辑发布，仅限于提供信息和投资者 教育的目的。本材料所依据信息和资料来源于公开渠道（例如：万得、彭博）和内部研究成果，相关信息 被认为是可靠的，但重阳投资不对其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。相关信息仅供参 考，不构成广告、销售要约，或交易任何证券、基金或投资产品的建议。本材料中引用的任何实体 ...

中枢筑牢，行情反复 华泰期货研究院 2025年07月04日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率显著高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率回落，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 3M 2025/07/02 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250701（%） 20250624（%） 20250603（%） 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0. ...

Group 1 - Japan's household spending data showed a surprising strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in May, significantly exceeding market expectations, which has been a key factor in strengthening the yen [1][3] - The robust consumption data reflects the recovery momentum of the Japanese economy and provides important evidence for future adjustments in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1][3] - The strong consumer spending growth indicates an improvement in household income conditions, likely influenced by factors such as corporate wage increases and an improving job market [3] Group 2 - Following the release of the consumption data, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility, briefly breaking through the technical resistance area of 144.65-144.70 before encountering resistance near 145.25 [3][4] - The technical analysis indicates that short-term support levels for USD/JPY are concentrated around 144.20 and the 144.00 integer level, with potential further declines if these key supports are breached [4] - The U.S. labor market data, including a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, has also impacted the exchange rate, with a slower wage growth limiting the upside potential for the dollar [4]

美元兑日元日内下跌0.50%，现报144.19。 ...