智通财经4月24日电，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表示，汇率应该由市场决定，汇率过度波动将对经济带来 负面影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Peter Schiff's commentary suggests that the perceived strength of American consumers is an illusion created by currency exchange rates, and he warns that this "American dream" may soon come to an end [1][6][16] Group 1: Consumer Power - Schiff argues that while American consumers are often seen as the backbone of global consumption, the reality is that their purchasing power is heavily influenced by the dollar's strength [3][4] - He highlights that if the Chinese yuan were to double in value, the income of Chinese consumers would significantly increase, challenging the notion of American consumer supremacy [4][16] - The comparison with European consumers shows that if the euro appreciates, their purchasing power would also rise, further questioning the sustainability of the dollar's dominance [4][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - Schiff's statements imply that the current economic model, which relies on the dollar as the world's reserve currency, is fragile and could lead to a significant shift in global economic power [9][11] - He suggests that if global markets begin to abandon the dollar, American consumers could face a drastic reduction in their purchasing power, making it difficult for them to afford even basic goods [9][11] - The commentary indicates that countries like China and those in Europe may be better positioned for future economic stability due to their manufacturing capabilities and population advantages [16][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - Schiff's perspective serves as a warning that the "golden age" of American consumers may be ending, and a new chapter in global consumption dynamics could be emerging [16][17] - The potential for a shift in economic power dynamics is emphasized, suggesting that the world may soon see a rebalancing of consumer markets [11][16] - The commentary concludes with the notion that many may not recognize the changing landscape of global consumption, indicating a significant transformation is underway [17][18]

"人民币汇率破7"、"日元贬值"、"美元暴跌"…. 这都是最近两年我们常看到的一些新闻。可是对于汇率，你真的了解吗？汇率的变化会受哪些因素影响？其中又反映了哪些更深层次的经济问题呢？ 大家好，我是老丁 一、汇率 汇率，指的是两种货币之间兑换的比率，也可视作一个国家的货币对另一种货币的价值。 当你看到"1美元=7.3人民币"的时候，就意味着你要花7块3人民币，才能换到1美元。这就是人民币兑美元的汇率。在零几年的时候，8块人民币兑换1美 元，后来人民币一路升值，在2014年的时候最高到过6元人民币兑换1美元（如图）。 那时候媒体都说人民币升值不好，会打击出口。这些年人民币又贬值到7.3人民币兑换1美元的时候，媒体又说贬值不好，会资金外流，所以，到底哪一种 才是相对好的呢？ 因为在那个阶段，中国经济的构成是以出口为主要动力。促进商品出口，就是当时拉动经济促进民营企业最好的方式，而汇率升值，恰恰是会打压出口 的，所以那时候的中国并没有那么喜欢货币升值。而到了今天，中国已经变成一个以内需为经济主导的地区，而且现在的中国经济其实更需要汇率稳定。 所以今天的人民币如果出现贬值，也同样不被喜欢。 二、汇率变化因为汇率变化的直 ...

美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个重要事件。这一变动背后隐藏着诸多经济因素，也将对全球经济和金融市场带来深远影响，引起广泛 关注和讨论。 走势情况：近期美元指数持续下探，最终跌破了99关口。这一走势并非偶然，是一系列因素交织的结果。从技术层面看，美元指数已出现多日下 跌趋势，市场上看空美元的力量逐步增强。从更宏观角度，它与美国的经济数据表现、货币政策预期等息息相关。 未来展望：美元指数后市走向充满不确定性。若美国经济数据改善、货币政策转向，美元指数可能止跌回升。但如果经济持续疲软，货币政策维 持宽松，美元可能进一步走弱。投资者和企业需密切关注市场动态，做好风险管理。 你认为美元指数未来一段时间会回升还是继续下跌？不妨点赞、分享文章并在评论区交流看法。 汇率市场：美元指数下跌直接影响到各国货币与美元的汇率。一些新兴市场货币趁势反弹，在一定程度上缓解了本币贬值压力。对于进出口企业 而言，这会影响到它们的成本和利润。出口型企业可能因本币升值而面临订单减少的困境，进口型企业则因货币购买力增强而降低采购成本。 商品市场：美元与大宗商品价格通常呈反向关系。随着美元指数跌破99，黄金、原油等大宗商品价格往往会上涨。以 ...

2025.04. 12 当地时间11日，WTO首席经济学家奥萨（Ralph Ossa）发表长篇文章对关税进行解释，并对关税同 通胀、汇率以及贸易失衡之间的关系一一作答。 "关税的核心很简单：提高进口商品的国内价格。但关税的影响会以复杂的方式波及整个经济——改 变价格、工资、汇率和贸易模式。当各国政府重新审视这一强有力的杠杆时，了解其中的经济机制就 显得尤为重要。"奥萨表示。 他表示，"在关税重回贸易政策议程之际，在经济学中，关税不仅仅是增加收入或保护国内产业的工 具，它还是一种政策杠杆，具有广泛的、往往是意想不到的后果。" 奥萨称，"它们在短期内的吸引力可能会掩盖其对通货膨胀、竞争力和国际合作造成的长期代价。在 贸易紧张局势日益加剧的今天，清醒地看待这些利弊得失比以往任何时候都更加重要。" 近期，世贸组织（WTO）发布声明称，最近（美方）一系列政策宣布将对全球贸易和经济增长前景 产生重大影响。WTO初步分析表明，"目前的措施，加上今年年初以来出台的措施，可能导致今年全 球商品贸易量整体萎缩约1%，较之前预测下调近四个百分点。" 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：当前一个热门问题是关税是否会影响贸 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年4月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 ◆ 其他影响因素：航运指数方面，本周波罗的海干散指数再度回落。截至4月4日当周，波罗的海干散货指数（BDI） 录得1489点，较上周-113点（-7.1%），其相关分项灵便型海运指数BHSI录得613点，较上周-0.2%；上海出口集 装箱运价指数（SCFI）录得1,392.78点，较前一期数据+2.6%。汇率方面，本周美元指数继续回落，截至当周，美 元兑人民币汇率较上周+0.15%，美元兑新西兰元汇率较上周+2.0%。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 ◆ 现货价格走势：对于主 ...