Group 1 - The market continued to show a volatile upward trend with an average daily trading volume of approximately 11,466 billion yuan, indicating a return to domestic market sentiment and trading driven by funds [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks; sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, while food and beverage, real estate, and coal lagged [1] - Domestic consumption related to travel and subsidized goods remains a key driver, despite a weakening in real estate sales, which still outperformed seasonal expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized stability, with a focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations," indicating a heightened importance on employment [3] - The meeting also highlighted the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting that subsequent policy implementations may accelerate [3] - The focus on consumption, manufacturing, real estate, and industrial innovation indicates a broad coverage of stimulus directions, with service consumption likely to be a key area for future growth [4] Group 3 - The market outlook suggests a short-term range-bound fluctuation, with the potential for technology stocks to outperform structurally [6] - The easing impact of tariffs on the domestic market and the support from risk appetite and fund profitability will be crucial for future market performance [6] - The investment strategy may favor a "value dividend + TMT theme" approach, with high-quality dividend assets expected to provide stable returns and technology stocks showing significant elasticity [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the small-cap index rising by 2.1%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index saw a decline of 0.4%. Industries such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed relatively well, whereas food and beverage, as well as real estate, lagged behind [1][12][14]. Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of equity funds increased by 0.84 percentage points to 84.01%. The allocation to Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high of 13.22%, reflecting a 2.66 percentage point increase from the previous quarter. The equity positions of various fund types are at relatively high levels compared to the past decade [2][17][24]. - The allocation of equity funds has shifted towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), domestic consumption, and resource sectors. The DeepSeek technology breakthrough has led to a structural increase in TMT allocations, particularly in downstream media [2][25][28]. Group 3 - The concentration of top holdings in equity funds has slightly increased, indicating a reduction in market divergence among public funds. The top 10, 30, 50, and 100 holdings accounted for 20.6%, 34.5%, 42.5%, and 54.7% of total holdings, respectively [3][34]. - The top 10 holdings as of the end of Q1 2025 include Tencent Holdings, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba-W, Midea Group, Luxshare Precision, BYD, Zijin Mining, SMIC, and Wuliangye. New entrants to the top 10 include Alibaba-W, BYD, and SMIC, while Cambrian, Hengrui Medicine, and North Huachuang dropped out [3][40]. Group 4 - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4%. This trend may be influenced by the concentration of earnings reports in April, leading to cautious investor behavior [4][43][50]. - The April Politburo meeting emphasized a bottom-line thinking approach, aiming for "four stabilizations" and focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties. The meeting outlined four policy priorities, including ensuring livelihoods and accelerating fiscal fund deployment [4][44].

分析师：蔡梦苑 此次政府工作报告重点突出了三条政策线索： 1、在总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度，突出了提质效，且根据形势变化动态调整政 策的特征。 2、应对当前经济面临的内外部压力和挑战，我国后续经济增长的三大"破局"方向：内需消费、科 技创新、改革开放。 登记编号： S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 投资要点 风险提示： 经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，地缘风险，海外衰退风险，外 部政策不确定性风险。 事件： 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 总量线索： 提质效，早发力，留后手 总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度。 为达成5%左右GDP目标，财政政策也进一步发 力，赤字率打破约束提升至4%，1.3万亿的超长期特别国债+5000亿特别国债（支持国有大型商业 银行补充资本），地方政府专项债4.4万亿，合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元、比上年增加 2.9万亿元。 3、股市楼市债市线索：股市楼市有望延续企稳向好，债市也有望迎来阶段性修复。 A股方面，两会行情下大盘宽基、顺经济周期 ...