Group 1 - The core market sentiment was significantly influenced by Nvidia's strong earnings report, which initially led to a more than 2% rise in the Nasdaq index before a sharp decline occurred, resulting in all three major indices turning negative [1] - Multiple Nasdaq-related ETFs experienced declines of over 3%, reflecting the market's volatility and investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Specific Nasdaq ETFs reported notable price changes, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (code: 513390) dropping by 4.03% to a price of 2.070, and other ETFs like the Nasdaq 100 ETF (code: 159660) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (code: 513110) also showing declines of 3.98% and 3.87% respectively [2] - Analysts indicated that the "disjointed" non-farm payroll report has further undermined expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, coupled with renewed concerns over the high valuations of technology stocks, prompting investors to engage in significant sell-offs [2]

资料图。 分析人士指出，尽管英伟达的强劲财报一度提振了市场情绪，但市场仍对AI估值是否已经到达顶峰怀 有疑虑。此外，美联储12月降息概率持续下降，也加剧了市场的担忧。 美国劳工部周四盘前公布了因政府停摆而延迟发布的非农数据，美国9月非农就业增加11.9万，远高于 市场预估的5.2万，但失业率意外升至四年新高的4.4%。数据公布后，利率期货市场显示的美联储12月 降息概率已不足40%。美联储理事巴尔周四表示，在通胀仍比目标2%高出一个百分点的情况下，央行 在考虑进一步降息时需要谨慎。 科技巨头股价集体下挫，英伟达收跌3.15%，苹果跌0.86%，微软跌1.6%，谷歌跌1%，亚马逊跌2.5%， Meta跌0.2%，特斯拉跌2.1%。其中，英伟达股价早盘一度大涨逾5%，市值单日蒸发约1429亿美元（约 合人民币10171亿元）。 文/帅可聪 当地时间11月20日，因投资者担忧AI泡沫及美联储降息预期持续降温，美股周四出现剧烈震荡，三大 指数盘初大涨，盘中又集体跳水转为大跌。 截至收盘，道指跌0.84%，报45752.26点；纳指跌2.15%，报22078.05点；标普500指数跌1.56%，报 6538.76点。其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in innovative drug concept stocks, with significant drops in companies such as Heptares Therapeutics-B (down 9.15% to HKD 12.81), Tansheng Bo Pharmaceutical-B (down 7.56% to HKD 1.59), and others [1] - The report highlights a cooling trend in the business development (BD) of innovative drugs, with a total transaction amount of USD 60.8 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 129%. However, the growth rate has started to decline since the third quarter of this year [1] - The U.S. employment report for September shows economic resilience, leading Morgan Stanley to abandon its previous prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The new forecast suggests rate cuts in January, April, and June 2026, lowering the target policy rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may impact the valuations of the innovative drug sector and overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - **Copper**: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - **LPG**: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - **PP**: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - **PE**: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - **Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].

Group 1 - The innovative drug concept stocks have experienced significant declines, with notable drops including: Heptares Therapeutics-B down 9.15% to HKD 12.81, Tiansheng Bo Pharmaceutical-B down 7.56% to HKD 1.59, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical down 5.83% to HKD 80, and Innovent Biologics down 6.18% to HKD 86.5 [1] - There are signs of cooling in the innovative drug business development (BD) sector, with data indicating that the total transaction amount in the first half of 2025 in China is projected to be USD 60.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129%. In the first three quarters of this year, the transaction amount reached USD 93.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% [1] - The decline in growth rates for domestic innovative drug BD transactions began in the third quarter, indicating a potential slowdown in the sector [1] Group 2 - The U.S. September employment report shows economic resilience, leading Morgan Stanley to abandon its previous prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - Morgan Stanley now forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in January, April, and June of 2026, bringing the target policy rate range down to 3%-3.25% [1] - Analysts suggest that the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may impact the valuations of the innovative drug sector and overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market, weak US employment, divergent expectations of Fed rate cuts, and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%) month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a 0.20% (-2.38%) decrease; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.80% (-1.61%) decrease [11]. - The US dollar index is 100.22, with a 0.09 (+0.09%) increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1179, with a 0.007 (+0.10%) increase; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a 0.03 (-1.82%) decrease; DR007 is 1.49, with a 0.03 (-1.81%) decrease; R007 is 1.51, with a 0.02 (-1.24%) decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.46 yuan, 105.94 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 115.87 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and - 0.21% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.004 yuan, 0.000 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, and 0.337 yuan respectively [4]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by 2% year - on - year [3]. - At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [3]. - On November 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a 300 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [3]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.364%, 1.460%, 1.546%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [3]. 4. Spread Overview - There are various spread data in the report, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][36][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [39][41]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate [59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate [66]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report Core View - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's probability of interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the aluminum price rises and then falls. The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. Although the inventory is weaker than expected, the absolute value of social inventory is low. The macro - environment is still promising. Overseas, the spot premium of aluminum ingots continues to rise, and there is seasonal restocking in Q4. Domestically, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the output of aluminum rods is increasing. If the social inventory is destocked smoothly, the aluminum price may break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. The current fundamentals have no positive factors, and the price is undervalued, but there may be continuous disturbances in overseas mines [7][8]. Summary by Related Data Aluminum Spot - On November 20, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,570 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,480 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,450 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,620 yuan/ton, closed at 21,530 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,640 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,515 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,843 lots, and the position was 338,582 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 69,408 tons, with a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,740 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.26%. The highest price was 2,748 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,716 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 266,933 lots, and the position was 411,305 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% and falling below $87,000 for the first time since April [2] - Ethereum also saw a decline, briefly falling below $2,800 [4] - A total of nearly 230,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $830 million (approximately 5.9 billion RMB) [7] Market Performance - Bitcoin: $87,161.3, down 4.62% in 24 hours, down 11.92% over the past week, market cap of $1.74 trillion, 24-hour trading volume of $96.99 billion [7] - Ethereum: $2,852.22, down 5.46% in 24 hours, down 10.90% over the past week, market cap of $344.81 billion, 24-hour trading volume of $42.97 billion [7] - Other cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Dogecoin, and Cardano also experienced declines [6] Liquidation Data - In the last 24 hours, liquidations included $700 million from long positions and $130 million from short positions [8] - The largest single liquidation occurred on HTX-BTC [7] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Market sentiment is cautious due to the cooling expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a lack of macroeconomic data [9] - Analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency market is facing significant selling pressure from large investors, with over $20 billion in assets sold since September [9] - Diverging opinions exist regarding Bitcoin's future, with some analysts urging investors to take profits in anticipation of a potential "crypto winter" [9] Future Outlook - Some analysts believe the recent price adjustments may have ended, indicating a potential rebound by the end of the year [10] - Market indicators suggest that Bitcoin prices may have reached a bottom, with the price-to-book ratio nearing 1 [11]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a widespread decline, with Luoyang Molybdenum falling by 3.83% to HKD 15.32, Jiangxi Copper down 3.22% to HKD 29.42, Lingbao Gold decreasing by 2.8% to HKD 15.29, and China Aluminum dropping by 2.51% to HKD 10.86 [1] - The decline in non-ferrous stocks is attributed to the weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as the US dollar index surpassed the 100-point mark [1] - The US Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the combined non-farm employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] - Following the data release, swap contracts indicated a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching $4,100 during the day but ultimately closing at $4,076.7 per ounce, reflecting market reactions to a strong dollar and tempered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices dropped by 0.15% to close at $4,076.7 per ounce on the COMEX [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.53%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.76% [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The October meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve revealed significant divisions among members, with a lack of guiding data contributing to this discord [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October non-farm payroll report, incorporating the data into the November report set for release on December 16, after the Fed's final meeting of the year [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 27% probability priced in, which has negatively impacted precious metals [1]