1. Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The international gold price rose more than 1% on Friday to a new high, driven by the dovish speech of Fed Governor Milan, which strengthened the market's expectation of consecutive interest rate cuts in future Fed meetings. The gold ETF holdings increased significantly, but the domestic gold market was affected by factors such as stock market performance and RMB exchange rate, and the report suggested short - term high - level operation of gold prices and pre - festival position reduction [1][15]. - The simultaneous official statements by the UK, Canada, and Australia to recognize the State of Palestine increased the political pressure on Israel, and the geopolitical risk was uncertain. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [19]. - After the interest rate cut, small - cap stocks and real estate sectors had profit - taking, but technology companies' capital expenditure plans were expected to drive the US stock index to fluctuate strongly. The market risk appetite remained high, and a long - biased approach was recommended [22]. - The recent stock market was volatile, with a divergence between technology stocks and traditional heavy - weight stocks. It was recommended to moderately take profits in the short term to cope with high volatility [26]. - Negative factors led to a sharp decline in Treasury bond futures. The bond market was expected to fluctuate at the end of the month and return to fundamental trading in the middle and late October. It was recommended to be cautious in the short term and consider mid - line long - position strategies later [30]. - The price of thermal coal was expected to remain strong in the short term due to supply - side regulation, but downstream resistance might increase as the price rose [33]. - The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, with short - term support. After the festival, the market was cautious, and the impact of year - end long - term agreements was uncertain [34]. - The supply of Brazilian sugar was strong in the second half of August, but the peak of the crushing season was approaching. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar was limited, and there might be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [39]. - The overall export signing progress of US cotton was behind the same period in recent years. The external cotton faced seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with a bearish view in the fourth quarter [44]. - The oil and fat market lacked a driving force and maintained an oscillatory trend. Palm oil was recommended for range - bound operations, and for international and domestic soybean oil, different strategies such as long - short spreads were suggested [47]. - The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and the development of Sino - US relations should be continuously monitored [50]. - The steel price was expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term before the National Day, but the upward space was limited [53]. - The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, but the impact of capital and weather speculation should be vigilant, and it was recommended to wait and see [57]. - The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. - The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [60]. - The price of alumina was under downward pressure due to oversupply, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61]. - The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions at low levels [65]. - The price of lithium carbonate was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. - The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option - selling and spread - trading strategies were suggested [71]. - The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [74]. - For nickel, it was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [77]. - The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and it was recommended to lay out mid - line long positions and consider positive spreads [79]. - For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. - The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [82]. - The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [84]. - The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [88]. - The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [90]. - The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. - The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [95]. - The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [97]. - The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [101]. - The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [103]. - For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [106]. - For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [108]. - For container shipping rates, different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [110]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, the increase in gold ETF holdings, and Milan's dovish speech drove the international gold price up. The domestic gold market was affected by multiple factors, and short - term high - level operation with pre - festival position reduction was recommended [13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Venezuela clarified drug - related issues, Trump communicated with Musk, and the UK, Canada, and Australia recognized Palestine. The US dollar was expected to maintain short - term volatility [16][17][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Milan emphasized independent decision - making on interest rate cuts. Oracle negotiated a large - scale AI cloud - computing agreement. The US stock index was expected to fluctuate strongly, and a long - biased approach was recommended [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders and the collective appearance of financial regulators. The stock market was volatile, and it was recommended to moderately take profits [24][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The call between Chinese and US leaders, Shanghai's housing property tax policy adjustment, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. Treasury bond futures fell, and the bond market was expected to oscillate at the end of the month. A cautious short - term approach and mid - line long - position consideration later were recommended [28][29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong on September 19. Supply - side regulation might drive the price to remain strong in the short term, but downstream resistance could increase [32][33]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - National fixed - asset investment data showed a slowdown in some sectors. The iron ore price was in high - level oscillation, and the market was cautious after the festival [34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Product (Sugar) - China's sugar import data and Brazil's sugar production data in the second half of August. The domestic sugar market was under short - term pressure, but the downside space was limited [35][39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Product (Cotton) - EU's clothing import data, India's cotton sales, and US cotton export data. The external cotton faced supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton was expected to oscillate [41][42][44]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Product (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil reference price adjustment. The oil and fat market lacked a driving force, and different strategies were recommended for different oils [46][47]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Product (Soybean Meal) - The high - level operation of oil - mill开机率. The soybean meal was likely to remain range - bound, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [49][50]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesian steel enterprises' decarbonization plan and steel - mill production data. The steel price was expected to have a short - term small - scale rebound, but the upward space was limited [51][53]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Product (Red Dates) - The price change of red dates in the market. The fundamentals of red dates were bearish, and it was recommended to wait and see [56][57]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Product (Corn) - Corn price regional differentiation. The medium - term view on corn was bearish, and it was recommended to hold short positions [58]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Product (Corn Starch) - The increase in starch开机率 and the decrease in inventory. The long - term fundamentals of corn starch were bearish [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Alumina) - Alumina inventory data. The alumina price was under downward pressure, and it was recommended to short at high levels [61][62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - China's subsidy cut for copper and nickel imports and a mining project financing agreement. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and mid - line long positions were recommended [63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina's lithium carbonate export data. The lithium carbonate price was expected to fall in the fourth quarter, and a short - biased approach was recommended [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - The "Three - North" project plan. The polysilicon market was expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and option and spread strategies were suggested [67][71]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon production data. The industrial silicon price was recommended to be bought at low levels, but chasing high prices should be cautious [72][74]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The confirmation of nickel oxide's high - temperature superconductivity. The nickel price was recommended to look for long - position opportunities after sentiment release and consider positive spreads [75][77]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - LME lead data and new battery certification. The lead price was expected to oscillate upward, and mid - line long positions and positive spreads were recommended [78][79]. 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - LME zinc data. For zinc, it was recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive spreads [80]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emission) - EUA contract data. The EU carbon price was expected to oscillate strongly [81][82]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - The increase in US oil rigs. The oil price was expected to maintain an interval oscillatory trend in the short term [83][84]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The price change of caustic soda. The price of caustic soda was expected to have limited downward space [85][88]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemical (Pulp) - The price change of pulp. The pulp market was expected to oscillate weakly [89][90]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The price change of PVC. The PVC market was fundamentally weak, but further decline was difficult. Policy support should be monitored [91]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The price and order data of bottle chips. The bottle chip market's supply - demand pattern was not substantially improved, and the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launch should be monitored [92][95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemical (Benzene and Styrene) - The consumption data of benzene and styrene downstream. The benzene and styrene markets were expected to oscillate weakly, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season and oil price fluctuations should be monitored [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemical (PX) - PX supply - demand data. The PX price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [99][101]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemical (PTA) - PTA spot and futures data. The PTA price was expected to oscillate weakly and adjust in the short term [102][103]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash price data. For soda ash, a short - at - high approach was recommended, and supply - side disturbances should be monitored [104][106]. 3.2.29 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Float glass price data. For float glass, an arbitrage strategy of long glass 2601 and short soda ash 2601 was recommended [107][108]. 3.2.30 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container ship order data. Different strategies were recommended for different contracts, such as taking profits at low levels for the 10 - contract and looking for low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract [109][110].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state and low operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing a comprehensive assessment of supply, demand, price trends, and offering corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and spot sales were poor. Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be bumper, possibly exceeding 700 million tons. The expected large pre - sale volume of new cotton may lead to competition among ginners, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream demand is still not ideal. It is suggested to wait and see and pay attention to new cotton acquisition, demand performance, and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, and the supply pressure is lower than last year. The sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year. US sugar faces pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. This year's sales are fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focuses on imports and next season's output forecast. This year's syrup imports have decreased significantly, but the 25/26 season's output is uncertain due to weather [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples. The expected output change in the 25/26 quarter is small, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. The expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, so it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The futures market is cautious. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, and synthetic rubber was stable with a slight increase. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. The tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the butadiene inventory also declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to the approaching National Day holiday [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but the year - on - year inventory was still high. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. China's pulp imports in August decreased month - on - month. The domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and the PPI improved marginally. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price decreased in September, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. However, the peak - season demand has not started, so it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Q3's market was a battle between weak reality and expectations of tariff cuts. Despite China halting purchases of US soybeans, the US soybean futures had some support due to strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. - It is advisable to wait for the negative factors to subside and then consider going long, while keeping an eye on the progress of South American crops and Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25年Q3行情回顾 - In July, due to cost support and concerns about long - term supply, the price once soared. Later in the month, it dropped due to Sino - US consultations and news of Argentine soybean meal imports. In August, USDA unexpectedly reduced the US soybean planting area, which provided bullish support, but strong harvest expectations and weak exports restricted the upward space. In September, the USDA report was bearish, but the US soybean futures had support from strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations [3][6]. 供给"微"增 - In the 25/26 season, global oilseed production is expected to be 690 million tons (up 1.39% year - on - year), with soybean production at 425 million tons (up 0.39% year - on - year), rapeseed at 90.96 million tons (up 6.1% year - on - year), and sunflower seeds at 55.1 million tons (up 5.05% year - on - year). The soybean stock - to - consumption ratio is expected to drop to 20.27% [26]. - In the September report, the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season was increased to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was decreased to 53.5 bushels per acre, but it was higher than expected. The crush was increased to 2.555 billion bushels, and exports were decreased to 1.685 billion bushels, with ending stocks increased to 300 million bushels [32]. 成本支撑 - In Q3, sea freight was relatively stable. As of September 17, the sea freight from Brazil, Argentina, US Gulf, and US West to China was $36/ton, $43/ton, $56/ton, and $29/ton respectively [60]. - Brazilian farmers' and port prices rose, and farmers' profits recovered significantly. In Q3, farmers' received prices continued to rise, and domestic Brazilian growers' profits were significantly better than traders' [63][66]. 南北美大豆出口分化 - In August, Brazil exported about 7.28 million tons of soybeans, and the export plan for September was 7.06 million tons. Since May, China has basically stopped buying US soybeans. In the 24/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports were 52.11 million tons [69][76]. 天气展望 - The current Niño - 3.4 index is - 0.2°C, and the atmospheric model shows a neutral state. Although the possibility of La Niña increases in the fourth quarter, the probability is still lower than that of a neutral state. La Niña usually affects the winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly causing drought in southern Brazil and Argentina [95]. 饲料产量环同比增加,终端养殖产能过剩 - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons (up 2.3% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year). As of August 2025, the laying hen inventory was 1.317 billion, and in January 2025, the white - feather broiler grandparent stock was 2.1457 million sets, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [99][103]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, exceeding the normal level set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs by about 3.6%. The industry's over - capacity situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and it still faces severe profit - loss pressure [111]. 平衡表推演 - The report provides a detailed balance sheet of soybean meal from January 2025 to March 2026, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, total demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, stock - to - consumption ratio, and surplus [120].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed announced an expected interest rate cut, the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data was lower than expected, but short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks and precious metals may be short - term bullish, while bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals are expected to be short - term volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Global Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected but hinted at no rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, and global risk appetite to increase [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. Domestic risk appetite increased due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position recommendation. Bonds are also expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see approach. Among commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see stance; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at high levels, with a cautious long - position recommendation [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined due to the drag of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals**: China's economic data was lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing down. Policy support was provided by measures to expand service consumption. Short - term external risk uncertainty decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. The market is focused on domestic incremental policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Thursday, with low trading volume. After the Fed's interest rate cut, some funds left the market. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, with rebar consumption rising and hot - rolled coil consumption falling. Supply decreased slightly. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore declined slightly on Thursday. There were rumors of production restrictions, and the increase in molten iron production was limited. Supply remained high, and port inventories decreased slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the price of silicon iron was supported by electricity costs and other factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash declined from a high on Thursday. Supply increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. Demand was stable but weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term policy and news risks [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass declined from a high on Thursday. Supply was stable, and demand growth was limited. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices, along with tax policy impacts and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices fell but were supported above the 20 - day moving average. The recent price increase was due to interest rate cut expectations and the spill - over effect of copper price increases, but the fundamentals are weak, with increasing inventories and limited demand recovery [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight ore supply, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with upside pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Thursday. Supply and demand both increased, and inventories decreased. The market is expected to be slightly bullish, with attention to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Thursday. With polysilicon and coking coal at high levels, it is expected to be slightly bullish [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined on Thursday. Spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased, and policy expectations remained strong. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: President Trump's remarks weakened market confidence in sanctions against Russia, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on market sentiment was limited. The price is expected to be supported and range - bound, with market focus on sanctions and geopolitics [13]. - **Asphalt**: After a slight decline in oil prices, asphalt rebounded and stabilized. The upside is limited, and it may be range - bound at a low level due to potential inventory accumulation and falling oil prices [14]. - **PX**: The PX price was stable, and the previous positive factors were mostly priced in. The PXN spread decreased slightly, and it is expected to be range - bound, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: Downstream开工率 remained at 91.4%, with limited terminal demand recovery. PTA processing fees were squeezed, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It remained stable and volatile, but downstream demand was weak. With potential new device production and limited export orders, it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: It followed the polyester sector and rebounded slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upside is limited [15]. - **Methanol**: The port price declined, and the inventory increased. Although the fundamentals improved marginally, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price declined. Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply remained abundant. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. US soybean export sales were better than expected, but crop ratings were falling, and the final yield estimate may be adjusted downward. The market maintains a cautious optimistic attitude [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve in late September and October, and the price center of gravity may rise [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT November soybean oil contract declined. Domestic soybean crushing is high, and soybean oil supply is sufficient. Canola oil inventories are decreasing, and the market sentiment is strong during the seasonal sales peak [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. Domestic demand is weakening, and inventories are increasing. Although there are concerns about production in Malaysia, the upside is limited [19]. - **Corn**: The prices in the northern ports and Northeast production areas rebounded slightly, while the prices of new corn in North China continued to decline but at a slower pace. New grain is expected to be listed in large quantities from mid - October to November, with a downward price expectation. The futures contract has strong support [19]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices reached a new low this year. Supply is abundant, and demand is stable. The rebound space in late September is limited [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Apple: Bearish (★☆☆) [1] - Timber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Natural Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and suggesting corresponding trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined significantly, with most cotton spot prices stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There are concerns about possible over - pre - sale and potential price hikes from ginneries, but the impact is expected to be manageable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macro factors like Sino - US trade talks and Fed rate cuts are also under consideration. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, but the sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, suggesting potential high sugar - making ratios next year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. Domestic sugar sales are fast, with lower inventory and less pressure. The market focus is on imports and next - season's output, and the impact of weather on the 25/26 season's output is uncertain [3] Apple - Apple futures are oscillating. Early - maturing apples have good demand, but the supply of late - maturing apples in the 25/26 season is expected to be stable, and there is a high expectation of increased cold - storage inventory. It is expected that the futures price will decline in the short term, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, commodity futures prices fell. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operation rate decreased last week. Chinese tire production and export data show a mixed performance, with overall market conditions being okay. Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao declined, while butadiene rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see due to approaching holidays and low risk - appetite [5] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly, with stable spot prices. Chinese pulp port inventory is high year - on - year, and the August import volume decreased. Domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and PPI shows marginal improvement. Pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Timber futures are oscillating, with stable spot prices. Last week's timber arrival volume decreased, and the New Zealand radiata pine price dropped in September. Domestic importers are less willing to import due to high foreign prices. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. Inventory is low, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but there is limited short - term upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Paper Pulp: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Sugar: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Apple: Short - term bearish, one green star, indicating a downward - driving trend but low operability [1] - Timber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Natural Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, providing an overview of their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and gives corresponding investment suggestions, mostly suggesting temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures fell sharply, with spot sales mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a possible output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may lead to competition among ginneries for purchase, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut. Temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, though falling significantly, is still at the upper edge of the historical range, so the sugar - making ratio in Brazil may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, with reduced inventory and relatively light spot pressure. The trading focus has shifted to imports and the next - season output forecast. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output forecast for the 25/26 season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and merchants are actively purchasing. The high price of early - maturing apples makes the market expect a high opening price for late - maturing apples in October. However, the expected apple output in the 25/26 quarter has little year - on - year change, and the supply lacks bullish drivers. In Shaanxi, farmers are more bullish, and the inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October is expected to increase. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish approach is maintained [4] 20 - number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the prices of international crude oil and other commodities fell. The futures prices of RU, WR, and BR continued to decline, and the sentiment in the futures market weakened. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. China's tire production and export data in August showed that the domestic tire market performed well, with an increase in the operating rate. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, while the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is low. Temporarily observe [5] Paper Pulp - The paper pulp futures fell slightly, and the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but was still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. In August 2025, China's paper pulp imports decreased. Macroeconomically, inflation is expected to remain weak this year, and PPI has marginally improved. Currently, the port inventory is high, supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased. Domestic spot prices are weak, and traders' import willingness is low. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. The total log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily observe [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 粕类产业 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and the cost support expectation of meal products in the fourth quarter is still strong. It is expected that 01 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 [1]. 生猪产业 - The slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased, and the spot pressure has been continuously realized. The short - term rebound of the futures price does not rule out the possibility of subsequent decline, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out [3]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil futures are expected to gradually rise to around 4500 ringgit and maintain a strong consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the supply in the United States supports the market, and the domestic soybean oil inventory has increased. The spot basis quotation may rise with the reduction of soybean supply [7]. 玉米 industry - In the short term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the futures price fluctuates weakly; in the medium term, it maintains a weak situation, and short - selling should be cautious [8]. 白糖 industry - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot pressure still exists. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the idea of selling high is still maintained later [12]. cotton industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [14]. egg industry - The demand may drive up the egg price to the annual high, but the supply side may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders ends next week, the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [18]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 粕类产业 - **豆粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3030 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 3041 yuan, down 1 yuan; the basis is - 11 yuan, up 1 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 90; the Brazilian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 7 yuan, up 13 yuan [1]. - **菜粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2620 yuan, up 20 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 is 2518 yuan, up 14 yuan; the basis is 102 yuan, up 6 yuan; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 866 yuan, up 103 yuan [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3924 yuan, down 15 yuan; the basis is 56 yuan, up 15 yuan; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3729 yuan, up 1 yuan; the basis is 171 yuan, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 239 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 121 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spot oil - meal ratio is 2.86, up 0.017; the main contract oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.015; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 410 yuan, down 20 yuan; the 2601 spread is 523 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract basis is - 550 yuan, down 105 yuan; the price of live - hog 2511 is 13160 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the price of live - hog 2601 is 13680 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 520 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 84857, up 3795 [3]. - **Spot prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei have all decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 149204, up 1122; the weekly white - strip price is 20.10 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan/head, down 35.8 yuan; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads [3]. 油脂 industry - **Soybean oil**: The futures price of Y2601 is 8122 yuan, up 46 yuan; the basis is 238 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 210; the warehouse receipt is 24544, unchanged [7]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9400 yuan, up 80 yuan; the futures price of P2601 is 9252 yuan, up 78 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan, up 2 yuan; the spot basis in Guangdong in September is 01 + 20; the disk import cost in Guangzhou Port in September is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan; the disk import profit is - 428 yuan, up 39 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 1570, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan, up 120 yuan; the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 yuan, up 75 yuan; the basis is 474 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 200; the warehouse receipt is 8202, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 296 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil is 230 yuan, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil is 467 yuan, up 78 yuan; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 740 yuan, down 30 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1064 yuan, down 18 yuan; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1400 yuan, up 70 yuan; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1635 yuan, up 111 yuan [7]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2166 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis is 144 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread is - 2 yuan, up 3 yuan; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 39 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 1941 yuan, down 2 yuan; the import profit is 479 yuan, up 2 yuan; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 1003, up 379; the position is 1573720, up 2703; the warehouse receipt is 43975, up 232 [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 117 yuan, unchanged; the 11 - 3 spread is - 32 yuan, up 10 yuan; the starch - corn futures spread is 277 yuan, up 1 yuan; the Shandong starch profit is - 33 yuan, up 3 yuan; the position is 335166, up 8120; the warehouse receipt is 9217, down 21 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of sugar 2605 is 5525 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.88 cents/pound, down 0.08 cents; the 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 385623, up 4016; the warehouse receipt is 11268, down 57; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [12]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Nanning basis is 366 yuan, up 2 yuan; the Kunming basis is 341 yuan, up 12 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1472 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) and Nanning is - 279 yuan, up 26 yuan [12]. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.02 million tons, down 9.69 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 89.60%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62%; the national industrial inventory is 116.00 million tons, up 5.78 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 70.87 million tons, down 1.61 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons; the sugar import is 13.00 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [12]. cotton industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of cotton 2601 is 13882 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the ICE US cotton main contract is 67.67 cents/pound, up 0.85 cents; the 5 - 1 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 492631, down 5664; the warehouse receipt is 4759, down 140; the effective forecast is 12, up 10 [14]. - **Spot market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton is 15214 yuan, up 47 yuan; the CC Index 3128B is 15300 yuan, up 51 yuan; the FC Index M 1% is 13388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1354 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1319 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% is 1912 yuan, up 51 yuan [14]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons; the import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the bonded area inventory is 29.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is - 0.20%, down 1.00%; the yarn inventory days is 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days is 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 million tons, up 9.86 million tons; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises C32s is - 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 36.10 yuan; the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 1045.00 billion yuan, up 83.70 billion yuan; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 3.10%, up 1.30%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 123.93 billion US dollars, up 7.89 billion US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 1.43%, up 0.91%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 141.46 billion US dollars, down 10.16 billion US dollars; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 10.08%, down 9.47% [14]. egg industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 11 contract is 3113 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan; the price of the egg 10 contract is 3090 yuan/500KG, down 36 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread is 23 yuan, up 6 yuan [17]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price is 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; the basis is 130 yuan/500KG, up 130 yuan; the egg - chick price is 2.60 yuan/feather, down 0.40 yuan; the culled - hen price is 4.61 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07; the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan [17].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕：贸易乐观情绪，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3924 | -18（-0.46%） | 3930 | -4（-0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3041 | -10（-0.33%） | 3033 | -13（-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1049 | +5.75（+0.55%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 286.1 | +0.2 （+0.07%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3020～3040， | 较昨-40至持平； 9月M2601-40， | 持平； | ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].