中方发言人的表态，实际上是要比之前柔和很多，如果评估通过，就意味着有谈判解决的可能性，中方并没有拒绝美国的谈判请求。 5月2日，商务部就美国政府多位官员表示正在和中国进行贸易谈判表态，商务部发言人表示，中方注意到美方多次表示愿意和中方进行关税谈判，对此正在 进行评估。同时，发言人也强调，如果美方真的想要谈判，就应该纠正错误，拿出诚意。 路透社援引美国政府官员的话表示，在新一年的财政预算中，国防和国家安全上的支出将会正式突破万亿美元，达到恐怖的1.01万亿美元，较上一财年增长 13%。除了维持正常美军的军费开支外，其余的资金将用于美国的导弹防御项目、造船、核武库升级以及边境安全等问题。其中用于非国防开支的资金为 5570亿美元， 相较于上一年减少23%。 也就是说，这笔经费中的绝大部分，将被直接用于美军在军事上的扩张。 但是，从另一个角度去看，这其实也和之前中方的表态在内容上是保持一致的。不管是外交部还是商务部，此前对特朗普掀起的关税战都作出过明确回应， 要打就奉陪到底，要谈大门敞开，但是必须要在平等、尊严和互惠的基础上进行。也就是说，如果美国不停无理地对华关税，那这场贸易谈判是进行不下去 的。 但不管怎么说， ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November 2024, driven by reduced risk sentiment and market optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations [2][5]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since reaching a low of 7.4, the offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 2.7% from April 8 to the present [2]. - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD rate peaked at 7.1892 before slightly retreating to around 7.2041 by the end of the day [2]. - The recent surge began on April 30, with the offshore RMB rising from 7.27 to below 7.20, marking a 1% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market expectations of progress in US-China trade talks and reduced tensions have contributed to the RMB's strength [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted the US's willingness to negotiate on tariffs, which has been positively received by the market [5]. - A crowded long position in the USD and changing market dynamics regarding US economic conditions have triggered a new wave of USD selling [5]. Regional Currency Trends - The RMB's rise coincides with appreciation in other Asia-Pacific currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, South Korean Won, and Thai Baht, all gaining over 1% against the USD [6]. - The Hong Kong Dollar has also strengthened, reaching its trading limit, influenced by the strong performance of the RMB and capital inflows from mainland China [6][7]. Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - Significant capital inflows from mainland China into Hong Kong have been observed, with net purchases through the Stock Connect channels reaching 570.9 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - The upcoming dividend payments from Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, totaling 36.1 billion USD, are expected to increase demand for the Hong Kong Dollar [7]. Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the second quarter but may stabilize over the year due to potential macroeconomic stimulus measures from the Chinese government [8]. - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement further monetary easing, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8]. - The future trajectory of the RMB will depend on the progress of US-China negotiations and the potential recovery of Chinese exports [8][9].

截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨564.47点，收于41317.43点，涨幅为1.39%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨82.53点，收于5686.67点，涨幅为1.47%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨266.99点， 收于17977.73点，涨幅为1.51%。 新华财经纽约5月2日电 由于市场对美国经济和贸易谈判乐观预期推动，纽约股市三大股指2日高开高 走，盘中强势盘整，尾盘涨幅有所收窄，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨。 美国商务部当日上午公布的数据显示，美国3月份制成品新订单金额为6188亿美元，环比增长4.3%，低 于市场预期的4.5%，但显著高于2月份修订后的0.5%。 独立顾问联盟的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡莱利（Chris Zaccarelli）表示，由于就业数据好于预期，市场舒 了一口气。虽然对衰退的担忧仍在酝酿之中，但逢低买入的势头可能会持续下去——至少在关税暂停期 结束之前会这样。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块全线上涨。通信服务板块和金融板块分别以2.30%和2.15%涨幅领 涨，必需消费品板块涨幅最小，为0.60%。 美国劳工部在当日早间发布的数据显示，美国4月份新增17.7万 ...

A股假期休市，周五欧美股市集体走高，中概股大涨。 美国4月非农就业数据超预期，失业率符合预期。数据公布后特朗普再次督促美联储降息。 有分析称，关于中国表示正在评估与美国开始贸易谈判的可能性的消息提振了市场情绪。 非农数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次呼吁"美联储应该降息。" 欧美股市全线大涨 周五美股高开高走，至收盘三大指数均涨超1%。纳指涨1.51%，本周累计上涨3.42%；标普500指数涨 1.47%，本周累涨2.92%；道指涨1.39%，本周累涨3%。 其中，标普500指数、道指均连涨9日，标普500指数创2004年以来最长连涨纪录。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3.5%，本周累计上涨3.14%。 万国数据、金山云涨超9%，小鹏汽车、极氪涨逾5%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超4%，哔哩哔哩涨超3%，百 度、蔚来涨超2%，新东方、携程网涨超1%；传奇生物跌超2%。 欧洲三大股指全线走强。 离岸人民币大幅走高，报7.2115元，上涨了662点。 特朗普再催美联储降息 据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文，再次敦促 美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决定。 特朗普在帖文 ...

据环球时报报道，美国总统特朗普对记者称，我们与中国相处得不错，同中方谈判时不会采取强硬态度。对华145%关税 确实很高，协议达成后美对华关税将大幅下降，但不会降至零。中方必须同美达成协议，否则无法同美做生意。若不同 美达成协议，就按美方说的办，美才是定规矩的一方。 特朗普（资料图） 在关税问题上，特朗普作为美国总统，多次反复横跳，左右摇摆，尽显"变色龙"本质，实在是令人觉得又好气又好笑。 近期，迫于现实的压力，美国特朗普当局再次在关税问题上"松口"，释放了愿意与中方进行沟通和谈判的信号。但是， 面对特朗普的"糖衣炮弹"，中方压根没有上当，说白了，中美关税谈判，现在还没到时候。 两位消息人士告诉美联社，在摩根大通举行的一场私人会议中，贝森特向在场人士警告称，中美谈判尚未启动。在他看 来，尽管双方都认为现状不可持续，但两国之间的谈判将会"非常艰难"。关于中美谈判，为什么白宫发言人和美国财长 会出现不一样的说法？原因很简单：前者的工作是为特朗普打嘴炮，而后者是真的要干活，而且一旦谈判出了岔子，他 是要担责任的。显然，贝森特说得才更符合事实：中美之间的贸易谈判会"非常艰难"。 其实，特朗普说这番话的根本目的有两个：一 ...

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index experienced a slight decline of 0.18% as of April 28, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Nanshan Aluminum up 6.34% and Mango Excellent Media down [1] - The CSI 300 ETF saw significant growth in scale, increasing by 6.674 billion yuan over the past six months, with a notable increase in shares by 3.997 billion [3] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of the CSI 300 Index is 1.34, which is lower than 80.61% of the time since the index's inception, indicating a strong valuation appeal [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index as of March 31, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 23.04% of the index [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) for low-cost entry [4]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

Q：A股和港股在无明显利空的情况下，为什么出现回调？ 美东时间22日，特朗普关税松口，隔天23日A股冲高回落，港股尾盘走弱，南向资金净卖出额超180亿港元，单日净卖出额创2021年2月以 来新高。24日，再次出现抛压，港股大幅杀跌，A股开盘冲高后，指数大幅跳水。 我们认为， 消息面上尽管没有明显的利空消息，但是在美国解放日大规模回调、国家队下场等宏观影响后，部分股票回补明显。随着五 一长假临近，近日的下跌可能是多头获利了结的 结 果 。 一、近期美股"起起落落" ·起： 23日夜盘，受特朗普松口影响，《华尔街日报》发布一篇报道，声称美国对华关税可能从当前的145%大砍到50%-65%。和此前贝森特所 说的"情绪缓和"/de-escalation相符。这一消息犹如一针兴奋剂，瞬间点燃了市场的乐观情绪，市场迅速大涨。 本以为波动就此结束，但11点24分左右，贝森特在国际金融协会（IIF）活动中称"完整谈判可能需两三年"，此消息再次引 发市场恐慌， 纳指涨幅收窄至不足3%，此前一度涨超4%。 ·落： 4月24日下午，商务部和外交部分别举行例行新闻发布会和例行记者会，针对所谓"中美贸易谈判"的传闻作出明确澄清，强调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is affected by the US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes, and the market is in a state of repeated operation [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced arbitrage shipments, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure eases with the approaching summer demand [1][3] - The asphalt production profit has recovered, and the refinery's production enthusiasm has improved, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester product prices mainly follow the cost - end, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to run in a low - range [3][4] - The rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the approaching holiday production cut of downstream tire factories and cautious terminal orders [4][7] - The methanol supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose [7] - The polyolefin market is affected by tariff policies, with supply pressure easing and demand weakening [7][9] - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 6 - month contract rose 0.52 dollars to 62.79 dollars/barrel (0.84% increase), Brent 6 - month contract rose 0.43 dollars to 66.55 dollars/barrel (0.65% increase), and SC2506 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel (1.00% increase). The US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes make the market volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2507 fell 1.12% to 2998 yuan/ton, and LU2506 fell 0.86% to 3446 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market is supported by reduced shipments, and the high - sulfur market pressure eases with approaching summer demand [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2506 rose 0.38% to 3406 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 20.4% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased. The production profit has recovered, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 0.86% to 4370 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 1.67% to 4179 yuan/ton. The production load of polyester and ethylene glycol has changed, and product prices mainly follow the cost - end [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2509 rose 40 yuan/ton to 14735 yuan/ton, NR fell 130 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR fell 60 yuan/ton to 11235 yuan/ton. The downstream tire factories are expected to cut production before the holiday, and the rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak [4][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose due to device maintenance and increased future arrivals [7] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polypropylene and polyethylene has changed. The refinery's maintenance increases, but the demand weakens due to tariff policies [7][9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is slightly adjusted. The supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on April 24 and 23, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [10] 3. Market News - The third - round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations this week may lead to Iran's crude oil return, but the new US sanctions on Iran limit the oil price increase. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas [12] - The Bank of England Governor believes that the concern about the US dollar losing its reserve currency status is "excessive" [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP production, etc [69][70][72] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [74][75][76]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/25 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3765.20 | 3734.00 | 3677.00 | 3652.20 | 前日收盘价 | 3771.20 | 3736.80 | 3681.00 | 3657.20 | | | 涨跌 | 4.20 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 6.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.11 | 0 ...