民生宏观邵翔团队认为对于人民币的水平有两个标准：一是央行的心理价位。二是人民币相对于其他货币的变化。 5月9日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元盘中双双跌破7.25关口，随后有所回升，截至发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7.2473，离岸人民币对美元报7.24725。 | < w | 人民币外汇 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | 美元兑人民 USDCNY.IB | 7.2473 | 0.16% | | 美元兑离岸 USDCNH.FX | 7.24725 | 0.05% | 消息面上，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数8日大幅上涨1.03%，在汇市尾市收于100.639，创近一个月新高。 | < w | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 3316.1 | 昨结 3306.0 | 开营 | | 3310.2 | | | +10.1 | +0.31% 总手 | 5.06万 现手 | | | 3 | | 最高价 | 3329.0 持 仓 26.3万 | A | ...

"人民币对美元汇率又创新高！"朋友兴奋地告诉我，"是不是该赶紧换点美元？"我反问他："你知道这波涨势背后，其实是中美两国的政策在暗中 较劲吗？" 美联储加息与中国稳汇率的拉锯战 2023年以来，美联储连续11次加息，将联邦基金利率推高至5.25%-5.5%的22年高位。这把"美元镰刀"每次挥舞，都让全球货币市场颤抖。但令人 意外的是，人民币展现出超强韧性，这背后是中国央行一系列精准调控的结果。 中国通过下调外汇存款准备金率、重启逆周期因子、发行离岸央票等组合拳，为人民币构筑起"防波堤"。更关键的是，中国保持货币政策独立 性，没有盲目跟随加息，而是通过结构性工具支持实体经济，这种"以我为主"的定力，成为人民币稳定的压舱石。 美国对中国商品加征的关税至今仍未取消，但人民币汇率却成为新的博弈焦点。美方一直施压人民币升值，表面是要求"公平贸易"，实则是想削 弱中国出口竞争力。但中国央行明确表示"汇率不是工具"，坚持市场供求决定的基本原则。 贸易战2.0时代的汇率暗战 有趣的是，在科技战背景下，中国芯片进口成本因人民币适度贬值而降低，反而缓解了部分"卡脖子"压力。这种"以贬值对冲制裁"的巧妙应对， 让美国始料未及。汇率 ...

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the RMB against various currencies has shown fluctuations, with the USD/RMB rate increasing, indicating a depreciation of the RMB [1] Currency Exchange Rate Summary - USD/RMB is reported at 7.2095, an increase of 22 points, indicating RMB depreciation [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.1118, a decrease of 478 points [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.92764, a decrease of 10.6 points [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.5724, a decrease of 225 points [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6269, a decrease of 162 points [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.1959, a decrease of 238 points [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.9518, a decrease of 684 points [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.3876, an increase of 2184 points [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2717, a decrease of 214 points [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.59397, an increase of 59.2 points [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.6927, a decrease of 691 points [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5563, a decrease of 187 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting behaviors of domestic exporters and citizens regarding currency exchange, highlighting a unique phenomenon where exporters are converting USD to RMB while citizens are converting RMB to HKD, indicating differing perceptions of the RMB's future value and economic conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Behavior - Domestic exporters are rapidly converting their USD earnings into RMB, believing the current exchange rate of approximately 7.3 is favorable for exports and that further depreciation of the RMB is unlikely [1][6]. - Conversely, domestic citizens are exchanging RMB for HKD, leading to a significant influx of capital into Hong Kong, with net inflows through the Stock Connect reaching 570 billion RMB from January to April, which is 77% of last year's total [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB interest rate (CNH Hibor) has dropped significantly, aligning closely with the domestic RMB interest rate (Shibor) at an annualized rate of about 1.7%, a decrease of 50% since January [2][3]. - This alignment indicates that borrowing costs in Hong Kong for RMB are now comparable to those in mainland China, a situation that has been rare in the past five years [4][5]. Group 3: Market Perceptions and Economic Signals - The disparity in currency exchange behavior stems from a fundamental difference in how exporters and domestic citizens perceive the RMB's future; exporters focus on government policies that support export competitiveness, while citizens are influenced by broader economic sentiments and fears of depreciation [10][11]. - The urgency for maintaining the RMB's exchange rate has shifted towards stimulating domestic economic growth, as indicated by the recent decline in the US dollar index from 110 to 99, which has eased pressure on the RMB [12][13][14].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank will selectively lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates based on economic growth momentum and liquidity conditions in the financial market [3] - Supportive monetary policy aims to maintain sufficient market liquidity, reduce financing costs, and guide funds to key areas to stimulate economic growth [4] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is essential to enhance their effectiveness and ensure consistency in achieving economic stability and risk prevention [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The toolbox for monetary policy includes tools like differentiated reserve requirement ratios, targeted medium-term lending facilities (TMLF), and open market operations to manage liquidity and credit [6] - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on directing financial support to strategic sectors such as technology innovation and green finance [6][7] Group 3: Price Stability and Asset Prices - The shift in the central bank's focus from "maintaining overall price stability" to "keeping prices at a reasonable level" indicates a more precise monetary policy target [8] - There is a complex debate about including asset prices in monetary policy goals, as it could complicate the balance between various economic objectives [10] Group 4: Government Bond Yields and Currency Exchange Rates - Current government bond yields are in a fluctuating range due to economic recovery expectations and monetary policy adjustments, with a potential for gradual increases in the long term [11] - The recent appreciation of the RMB reflects improved economic fundamentals and market confidence, while external pressures like tariffs may pose risks [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's economic growth, emphasizing the need for China to implement substantial policy measures to achieve its economic growth target of around 5% for the year [1][3]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - To meet the 5% GDP growth target, China may require an additional 2 trillion yuan in policy measures, considering a fiscal multiplier of 0.5, which corresponds to approximately 1.4 trillion yuan needed for a 1% GDP increase [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw China's GDP grow by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, with exports increasing by 6.9% and industrial output rising by 6.5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact and Manufacturing Challenges - The U.S. tariffs are expected to have a delayed impact, particularly in the second and third quarters, as the effects of previous export surges and new tariffs converge [4]. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in reversing the trend of deindustrialization, primarily due to high labor costs and a lack of complete supply chain infrastructure [2][6]. Consumer Spending and Economic Policy - To stimulate consumer spending, there is a need for systemic adjustments in income distribution and fiscal policies, focusing on increasing residents' income share [7]. - Enhancing social security measures, particularly in rural areas, is seen as a necessary step to improve consumption and economic stability [8]. Currency Stability - The Chinese yuan has shown relative stability against the U.S. dollar, which is crucial for maintaining market confidence and mitigating external trade pressures [9]. Real Estate Market Strategies - The Chinese government is expected to continue focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including increasing the supply of high-quality housing, which is vital for economic growth [10].

Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions and Economic Outlook - Wall Street has pushed back its forecast for interest rate cuts to July, with a 55% probability for the first cut, compared to a previous 20% for June [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remains resistant to preemptive rate cuts due to concerns over economic and inflation outlooks, relying more on hard data rather than soft data [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of July, there will be enough evidence of labor market and hard data weakness to justify rate cuts in July, September, and October, reducing the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75% [4] Group 2: Currency Movements and Dollar Dynamics - The dollar index has rebounded to around 100, recovering from a drop below 98, with a year-to-date decline nearing 10% [5] - Despite the dollar's recent strength, confidence in its sustainability is low, with institutions in Europe and Asia showing a strong inclination to diversify away from dollar assets [6] - Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar, have appreciated significantly against the dollar, with the offshore RMB also breaking the critical 200-day moving average [8][10] Group 3: Chinese Economic Policies and Currency Management - The People's Bank of China has shown a willingness to allow gradual depreciation of the RMB in response to tariff pressures, while recent dollar weakness has alleviated some of this pressure [10] - Analysts expect further fiscal and monetary stimulus from the Chinese government, with a potential reduction in policy rates and increased liquidity measures to stabilize economic growth [12][13] - The anticipated fiscal support may not be immediate, as the government assesses the impact of tariff shocks, but there is a consensus that additional measures will be necessary in the coming months [13]

智通财经5月8日电，在岸、离岸人民币对美元双双跌穿7.24关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent damage to USD credit has led to a weakened global demand for USD assets, with non-USD currencies generally appreciating, potentially prompting traders and financial investors to convert USD assets back to non-USD assets [1] Group 1 - The report from CICC indicates that if there is a significant trade surplus that needs to be settled in foreign exchange, the RMB exchange rate may continue to face a rapid appreciation trend [1] - To prevent excessive appreciation of the exchange rate, monetary policy may require further reductions in market interest rates [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy index futures on dips. Short-term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium- and long-term IH and IF are more attractive in terms of valuation [4]. - The short-term funds are neutral. After the unexpected implementation of US tariffs, there are signs of easing. Although global trade uncertainties still exist, government bonds have gradually returned to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has decreased [7]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, the four major A-share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.51% to close at 1996.51 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.36% to close at 1030.19 points. The market turnover was 15,051 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts are 156.29, 130.09, 46.63, and 24.3 points, and -19.98%, -17.67%, -9.51%, and -7.11% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles are 3%, 2%, 6%, and 14% respectively. The futures-spot price difference has been repaired but is still at a low level [3]. (3) Government Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, most government bond futures declined. The 2-year government bond futures fell 0.01% to close at 102.31 points; the 5-year government bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 106 points; the 10-year government bond futures fell 0.19% to close at 108.85 points; the 30-year government bond futures fell 0.62% to close at 120.14 points [4]. - In terms of the current bond, the CTD bonds of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures have corresponding net basis and IRR. In terms of the money market, the central bank's net withdrawal was 33.53 billion yuan. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5].