Core Viewpoint - The current trend of RMB appreciation is primarily driven by holders of foreign exchange (cross-border capital, foreign trade enterprises), while domestic investors remain relatively cautious, as evidenced by the high "Shanghai gold premium" [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has experienced two phases: the first phase from April to June was characterized by a collapse in dollar credit, where the US-China interest rate differential had an inverse relationship with the RMB exchange rate; the second phase from July to August saw a return to the significance of the US-China interest rate differential due to expectations of US interest rate cuts [9]. - The RMB exchange rate is currently showing a "three-price divergence," indicating a persistent discrepancy among the "gold purchasing power parity" reflecting domestic expectations, the offshore price reflecting market expectations, and the central bank's middle price reflecting its stance [9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Holders of foreign exchange (foreign capital, foreign trade enterprises) are the main drivers of the current RMB appreciation, while currency exchangers (domestic investors) are more cautious about the trend [9]. - Domestic investors, who are currency exchangers, are more concerned with dollar yields and are less sensitive to dollar credit, which is reflected in the high correlation between gold purchasing power parity and US Treasury yields [9]. Group 3: Central Bank's Role - The central bank's management of exchange rate expectations has become crucial, as the pricing logic of the RMB exchange rate is expected to become more complex by 2025, with the US-China interest rate differential no longer being as effective as in previous years [3]. - The central bank has successfully demonstrated expectation management, leading to increased optimism among domestic investors and a breakthrough at the key level of 7.15, with expectations that the offshore price may rise to the range of 7.0-7.1 [3][9].

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心网站 9月1日人民币对美元中间价报7.1072元 下调42个基点 中新网9月1日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月 1日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对人民币7.1072元，下调42个基点。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 ...

近期人民币汇率加速升值，中间价和 CNH 上周均回到 7.10 附近，CNY 回到 7.13 附近。年内汇率存在破 7 的可能性。 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1、《人民币何时破 7？——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-08-31 2、《港股上市央国企动态系列 报告之 1——东风集团股份宣布 私有化退市，港股央国企推进 战略整合》2025-08-31 3、《美联储独立性或受挑战； 特朗普关税再被判违法——— 国际时政周评》2025-08-31 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 人民币中间价为何加速升值 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 33 期） 频率：每周 上周美元兑人民币汇率中间价升值至 7.10 附近，环比升值 0.4%，而年初至 今中间价升值幅度为 1.2%，换句话说，上周中间价的升值幅度约为年初至 今的三分之一左右。受中间价加速升值的影响，上周美元兑人民币即期汇 ...

新华社北京9月1日电 中国外汇交易中心9月1日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、澳 元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚尔、 福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 100美元 710.72人民币 100欧元 831.29人民币 100日元 4.8340人民币 100港元 91.174人民币 100英镑 960.61人民币 100澳元 465.42人民币 100新西兰元 419.63人民币 100新加坡元 554.1人民币 100瑞士法郎 887.82人民币 100加元 517.74人民币 100人民币113.04澳门元 100人民币59.319马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1123.18俄罗斯卢布 100人民币248.17南非兰特 100人民币19531韩元 100人民币51.622阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.745沙特里亚尔 100人民币4769.15匈牙利福林 100人民币51.259波兰兹罗提 100人民币89.81丹麦克朗 100人民币132.96瑞典克朗 100人民币141.46挪威克朗 100 ...

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）9月1日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1072元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1030元，调贬42基点。刚刚过去的 8月里，人民币中间价累计升值464基点。 同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元汇率小幅走贬。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.1327，日内贬值幅度为0.03%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1280，日内贬值幅度为0.09%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese currency (RMB) exchange rate** and its implications for the **Chinese asset market**. The analysis includes macroeconomic factors, particularly the influence of the **US dollar index** and **Producer Price Index (PPI)** on the RMB's performance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Trends**: The RMB exchange rate exhibits both **trend and cyclical characteristics**. Long-term depreciation is influenced by the US dollar index, while short-term fluctuations align with it. The RMB's actual effective exchange rate is expected to strengthen if the PPI rebounds significantly, which is anticipated in Q2 2026 [1][3][7]. 2. **Impact of PPI on RMB**: A significant rebound in China's PPI is crucial for enhancing market interest in Chinese assets and providing a basis for the RMB's appreciation. The PPI is expected to turn positive in 2026, which will improve the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [7][9][10]. 3. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: The RMB is projected to appreciate significantly against a basket of currencies in 2026, with a potential entry into the "6 era" (6.1 to 6.9 range) depending on the US dollar's performance and PPI trends [11][14][15]. 4. **Foreign Investment and RMB**: The RMB's exchange rate against the USD is a critical observation point, as foreign capital inflows are necessary for the revaluation of Chinese assets. The lack of foreign investment in recent years has hindered this process [2][19]. 5. **Market Style Shift**: The asset style in China is expected to shift from long-duration assets to short-duration assets, focusing more on profitability rather than valuation. Growth sectors such as technology, consumer demand, and cyclical assets are likely to perform well [16][18]. 6. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could catalyze RMB appreciation. The divergence in monetary policies between China and the US may alleviate the interest rate spread, supporting the RMB's strength [12][13][17]. 7. **Current Market Dynamics**: The A-share market has been buoyed by liquidity rather than earnings, with significant support from the central bank. The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by sectors aligned with the five-year planning cycle, particularly in technology and consumption [19][20][21]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Liquidity and Market Support**: The central bank's support through increased debt to financial companies has been crucial in stabilizing the market. However, the actual inflow of funds from residents into the stock market remains limited [20][24]. 2. **Investor Behavior**: Historical trends indicate that even in favorable conditions (low interest rates and high returns), significant capital inflows into the stock market have not materialized, suggesting a cautious investor sentiment [27][34]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The relationship between savings rates and deposit growth is critical. A potential increase in the savings rate could signal a shift in risk appetite among investors, which may influence market dynamics [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the RMB exchange rate and the broader economic context affecting Chinese assets.

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.1072, which represents a depreciation of 42 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The previous day's exchange rate was 7.1030 for the yuan against the US dollar [1] Exchange Rate Summary - As of September 1, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows: - 1 USD = 7.1072 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.3129 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.8340 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.91174 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.6061 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6542 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.1963 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.5410 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.8782 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.1774 CNY - 1 MOP = 1.1304 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.59319 CNY - 1 RUB = 11.2318 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4817 CNY - 1 KRW = 195.31 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51622 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.52745 CNY - 1 HUF = 47.6915 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.51259 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.8981 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3296 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4146 CNY - 1 TRY = 5.78058 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.6247 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5391 CNY [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].

人民币汇率风云：不止是数字，更是生活中的"隐形钱包" "今天美元兑人民币汇率究竟是多少？"这个看似平常的问句，实则触及了我们经济生活的方方面面。 "说实话，我也不清楚。最近不是一直说汇率很稳定吗？现在究竟是多少？" "我告诉你个准确的数字：今天人民币兑美元的中间价定在7.1030元，在岸人民币（CNY）报7.1306，离岸人民币（CNH）则为7.1189。从这些数据来看，人 民币表现得相当稳健，甚至还悄然上涨了一点。" 汇率：货币世界的"价格标签" "在岸"与"离岸"，这两个词听起来有些复杂，实则容易理解。在岸人民币（CNY）指的是在中国内地银行间市场交易的人民币价格，而离岸人民币（CNH） 则是在中国内地以外的地区交易的人民币价格。 我们常常从新闻中听到"汇率"这个词，但它究竟意味着什么？简单来说，汇率就是一种货币兑换另一种货币的"价格"。例如，今日1美元可以兑换7.1030人 民币，这个7.1030便是人民币兑美元的中间价。它如同一个无形的标尺，指引着银行和市场上的交易价格在此上下波动。中间价的升降，直接影响着我们钱 包里的购买力。 汇率与你：看不见的联系 你或许会问，这与我们普通人有什么关系？答案是：关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have drawn significant market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a trend towards convergence with the central parity rate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On August 28, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD broke through key levels of 7.15, 7.14, and 7.13, with the offshore rate (USDCNH) dipping below 7.12 [1]. - The central parity rate for USD to RMB on August 29 was reported at 7.1030, an increase of 33 basis points from the previous trading day, yet still 251 basis points lower than Bloomberg's forecast, indicating a signal for potential appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The narrowing gap between the central parity and actual trading rates suggests active management of exchange rate expectations, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [2]. - Following the break of 7.15 in USDCNY and USDCNH, the market anticipates a quicker convergence of the spot rate towards the central parity [2]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Strategies - The recent increase in RMB exchange rate volatility may affect "carry trade" strategies, which have been popular due to low volatility and a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points since May [2]. - The rise in volatility on August 28 may indicate a shift in the carry trade environment, posing potential risks for traders [2]. Group 4: Export and Investment Implications - While the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may attract foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, it could also impact exports [6]. - The RMB exchange rate index, such as the CFETS index, is more reflective of the export fundamentals, showing depreciation against a basket of currencies while appreciating against the USD, which helps mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [6]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Investor Considerations - The trajectory of the RMB exchange rate remains uncertain due to factors such as unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, delayed effects of China's easing policies, and fluctuations in non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors to make more informed investment decisions [6].