Core Viewpoint - Shandong province is implementing a series of "Buy in China" activities to stimulate consumer spending, resulting in a 5.6% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Policy and Activity Coordination - The Shandong Provincial Department of Commerce and six other departments have launched the "Buy in China: Mountain Water Saint Welcomes Friends" series as a key initiative to promote consumption across the province [3] - The initiative focuses on four main areas: quality shopping, exquisite food, exciting tourism, and fine performances, with 43 key activities planned to enhance consumer engagement [3] - Nearly 4,000 promotional activities have been held in the first half of the year, aiming for continuous thematic events and activities throughout the year [3] Group 2: Event Launch and Financial Support - The launch event in Yantai featured the "Join in Yantai, Embrace the Sea" city consumption IP, integrating various consumption formats such as events, concerts, and cultural tourism [4] - A total of 15 million yuan has been organized by 38 financial institutions to support key consumption areas, creating a synergistic ecosystem for the "Buy in China" initiative [4] Group 3: Tourism and Consumer Engagement - The "Buy in China: Exciting Tourism Shandong Tour" activity aims to enhance tourism consumption by promoting local travel and attracting overseas visitors [5] - Various measures include planning unique travel routes, offering tourism consumption packages, and conducting promotional events to showcase Shandong's hospitality and quality products [5] - The "1+3+16+N" old-for-new consumption initiative targets specific sectors such as automotive and home appliances, aiming to stimulate consumer willingness to upgrade [5]

Economic Growth and Policy Support - The GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of 2025, with a target of 5% for the entire year, indicating sustained policy support for the economy [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will remain stable with an emphasis on optimizing existing resources without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds, focusing on precise measures to enhance employment and foreign trade [2] - The government plans to adjust budget allocations and expedite the issuance of special bonds for next year to support major economic provinces [2] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential for slight reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, while maintaining stability in the RMB exchange rate against the USD [3] - Structural policy tools will be accelerated to support technological innovation and boost consumption [3] Consumer Promotion - Policies aimed at promoting consumption will focus on optimizing trade-in programs and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, particularly in major cities [4] - Initiatives may include childcare subsidies and local consumption voucher policies to stimulate spending [4] Investment Stability - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, supported by the completion of an 800 billion yuan construction project list and the initiation of significant projects [5] - New policy financial tools will be implemented to support key sectors such as digital economy and green transformation [5] Real Estate Market - The focus will shift from large-scale expansion to optimizing existing urban infrastructure, with an emphasis on safety and disaster prevention [6] - Attention will be given to policies that support the construction of quality housing and the revitalization of idle real estate [6] Employment and Market Governance - Policies to promote employment and consumption are expected to be rolled out, particularly in the service sector, as part of a broader effort to enhance market governance and competition [7]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

Core Insights - Jinan's consumer goods market has shown stable growth in the first half of 2025, with a total retail sales of 2640.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1][3] - The online consumption demand has significantly increased, with retail sales through public networks reaching 268.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 24.6%, accounting for 26.8% of the total retail sales of above-limit units, an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][3] Consumer Goods Performance - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 6.7%, 40.5%, and 52.9% respectively, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [3] - The sales of new energy vehicles have also seen rapid growth, with retail sales increasing by 13.6%, surpassing the overall retail sales growth rate by 11.7 percentage points, and accounting for 38.8% of the total retail sales of automotive products, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from the previous year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the collaboration between local government and financial institutions, particularly the JiuRong Rural Commercial Bank, to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand through innovative financial services and community engagement [1]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - JiuRong Rural Commercial Bank actively collaborates with local government departments to create a consumption ecosystem that benefits citizens, focusing on rural revitalization and consumer needs [2]. - The bank organized a "New Year Goods Fair" in collaboration with local authorities, attracting 93 vendors and generating a transaction amount of 1.5 million yuan during the event [2]. - The bank has issued 6,000 consumption coupons during promotional activities, resulting in 8,039 transactions [2]. Group 2: Night Economy and Cultural Tourism - The bank is involved in promoting the night economy by creating the "Ge Xian Night Tour" brand, which aligns with government initiatives to enhance nighttime consumption [3]. - During the "May Day" event, the bank facilitated 30,000 transactions and issued 8,000 consumption coupons, achieving a 97% redemption rate [3]. Group 3: Trade-in Programs - The bank has launched initiatives to support the "trade-in" policy, enhancing market vitality and consumer lifestyles through various financial products [4]. - Since May, the bank has issued 5 million yuan in consumption coupons, benefiting over 35,000 citizens and stimulating over 10 million yuan in consumption [4]. Group 4: Consumer Financing Solutions - JiuRong Rural Commercial Bank focuses on consumer installment plans, catering to various consumer needs such as home decoration and vehicle purchases [5][6]. - As of June, the bank issued 42 auto installment loans totaling 4.76 million yuan and 12 home renovation loans totaling 1.6 million yuan [6]. Group 5: Government-Bank Collaboration - The bank emphasizes the importance of clear division of roles and complementary advantages in government-bank cooperation to enhance market activity [7]. - The bank has established a regular communication mechanism with local government to ensure efficient policy implementation and resource allocation [9]. Group 6: Digital Empowerment and Service Expansion - The bank collaborates with local data companies to create a comprehensive digital platform for public services, addressing issues like data silos and service accessibility [10]. - The bank is exploring new financial service models in emerging consumption areas such as digital consumption and green consumption [10]. Group 7: Focus on Rural and County-Level Markets - The bank aims to enhance consumption in rural areas by designing targeted promotional activities and financial products that cater to local needs [11]. - The bank promotes a merchant alliance model to provide flexible financial support across various sectors, including home appliances and education [11].

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's directives on economic work to ensure stable and quality economic growth [1][2] - The government is focusing on enhancing industrial stability by providing support to key industries and enterprises, addressing practical difficulties, and fostering new industrial growth drivers [2] - There is a strong push for the development of the service sector, particularly in promoting high-end production services and expanding effective investments in key projects [2] Group 2 - The government aims to promote urban renewal and ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market [2] - Efforts are being made to stabilize foreign trade and increase the export scale of new products [2] - The government is committed to improving the service mechanism for enterprises, ensuring policies are easily accessible and beneficial [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is projected to face increasing pressure on demand due to tariffs, real estate challenges, and limited fiscal capacity, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical policies in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. Economic Growth Contributions - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to GDP growth, capital formation contributed 16.8%, and net exports contributed 31.2% [2]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure slightly increased to 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating that domestic demand, particularly consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth [2]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The focus for the second half of the year will be on reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, expanding domestic demand, and supporting a recovery in the real estate market [3][4]. - The report suggests utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to meet fiscal spending targets [3]. Consumer Promotion Strategies - There is an urgent need to promote consumption as the U.S. global tariffs may negatively impact Chinese exports, potentially leading to a shift from positive to negative net export contributions [5]. - Proposed measures to boost consumption include issuing long-term special bonds and increasing support for trade-in programs, with a broader scope to include general consumer goods and services [5]. Real Estate Market Recovery - To facilitate a quicker recovery in the real estate market, both demand and supply sides need to be addressed, including potential measures such as relaxing purchase restrictions and providing subsidies for low-income homebuyers [5].

Group 1 - The prosperity of night economy indicates significant market potential, making it an important tool for expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption in various regions [1] - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the need to deeply understand the strategic orientation of urban connotative development to enhance urban development quality more effectively [1] - Night economy plays a crucial role in enriching urban commerce and enhancing the vitality of urban development, significantly impacting the connotation and quality of urban development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

Core Viewpoint - Jining High-tech Zone is actively promoting consumption and high-quality development through various initiatives, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and the organization of promotional events, resulting in significant economic impact [1][2][3]. Group 1: Consumption Promotion Initiatives - The "Hui Gou Gao Xin" consumption voucher program has been launched, distributing 2.2 million yuan in vouchers, which has stimulated 16 million yuan in consumption [1]. - A total of 19 promotional events have been organized, including three large auto shows, leading to the sale of over 1,000 vehicles and a 20% increase in new energy vehicle consumption [1][2]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in the region increased by 9.7% year-on-year from January to May [1]. Group 2: Old-for-New Consumption Programs - The old-for-new program for automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles has been implemented, securing 108 million yuan in subsidies for over 7,500 participants [2]. - The home appliance sector saw a sales increase of over 30% due to the issuance of 9.19 million yuan in national subsidies, which generated 49.18 million yuan in sales [2]. - The mobile phone and digital device sector benefited from 3.01 million yuan in subsidies, leading to 23.6 million yuan in consumption [2]. Group 3: Development of New Consumption Scenarios - The development of the first-store economy is being prioritized, with major brands entering the market, enhancing the vitality of the Liaohe business circle [2]. - Online shopping and live e-commerce channels are being expanded to create a hybrid sales model [2]. - Seasonal events like the "Lobster Beer Festival" are being organized to stimulate summer consumption and promote the night economy [2]. Group 4: Future Plans for Consumption Enhancement - Jining High-tech Zone plans to introduce more consumption activities in the second half of the year, focusing on seasonal characteristics and aiming for over 20 promotional events [3]. - The government will increase funding for consumer vouchers to boost spending in sectors like automobiles and home appliances [3]. - The old-for-new program will be further expanded, with efforts to secure additional central and provincial funding [3]. Group 5: Commercial District Development - There will be a focus on enhancing urban pedestrian streets, smart business circles, and convenient living areas to improve consumer experiences [4]. - Projects will be developed around ecological landscapes to create integrated leisure and cultural experiences [4]. - Nighttime economy initiatives will be introduced to create a one-stop shopping destination [4].