Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on July 15, with government bond futures rising across the board, supported by stable economic data [1] - The average yield on interbank cash bonds fell by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year contract rose by 0.47% to 120.760, 10-year contract increased by 0.18% to 108.890, 5-year contract up by 0.13% to 106.025, and 2-year contract up by 0.04% to 102.418 [2] - Major interbank bond yields turned downward, with the 7-year bond yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.595% and the 10-year bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.657% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.40 basis points to 4.433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 1.58% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 2 basis points to 3.430% [4] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4996%, 1.5524%, and 1.6815% respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, injecting 342.5 billion yuan into the market [6] - The Shibor rates for overnight and short-term products increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7] - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices increase month-on-month, with notable price changes in cities like Changsha and Shanghai [8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that export pressures may rise in the second half of the year, while Huatai Securities highlighted that the bond market remains crowded with potential short-term volatility [9] - Xingzheng Securities indicated that the bond bull market remains intact, with further room for long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields to reach new lows in Q3 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing may face pressure in the second half of the year. If there is no additional budget, government bonds will shift from year - on - year increase in the first half to year - on - year decrease in the second half, and non - government bond social financing has been weak due to high real interest rates [2][3][20]. - The low - base effect supports the continued significant rebound of M1 growth rate, and the rebound of social financing growth rate drives the rebound of M2 growth rate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in fiscal deposits [3][4]. - The current stock market rise requires a low - interest - rate environment, and the impact on the bond market from capital flow is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is a better allocation opportunity after adjustment. It is expected that bond yields will decline again, and a long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended [5][21]. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. Corporate short - term credit demand increased, while the improvement of household credit demand was still limited. Corporate medium - and long - term loans and short - term loans increased year - on - year, and bill financing decreased year - on - year. Household medium - and long - term and short - term loans also increased year - on - year, but high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales [1][8]. Social Financing Situation - In June, new social financing was 4.1993 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9008 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Government bonds were still the main support item. However, if there is no additional budget, subsequent bond supply will decrease year - on - year, and social financing growth rate may decline [2][13]. - In the first half of this year, the increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. The annual budget increment of government bonds is 13.86 trillion yuan. After deducting the issued part in the first half, the net financing scale in the second half is expected to be about 6.1 trillion yuan, compared with about 8 trillion yuan in the same period last year [3][20]. M1 and M2 Situation - In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a rebound of 2.3 percentage points from May, mainly due to the low - base effect last year [3][15]. - In June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, a rebound of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The increase in social financing growth rate promoted the rebound of M2 growth rate. With the slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing the capital supply in the market [4][18]. Stock and Bond Market Situation - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by valuation recovery and requires a low - interest - rate environment. The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is expected that bond yields will decline again. A long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [5][21].

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has increased by 0.38%, with the latest price at 124.8 yuan, indicating active market trading [1] - The ETF's trading volume reached 40.03 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 22.24%, and an average daily trading volume of 71.27 billion yuan over the past week [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF is 17.939 billion yuan, marking a one-month high, with the latest share count at 14.4 million, also a one-month high [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds into the 30-year government bond ETF is 1.12 billion yuan, with a total of 2.162 billion yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [1] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan for the day [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen by 2 basis points to 1.66%, indicating a potential pressure on the bond market due to increased risk appetite [2] Group 3 - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2] - The bond market may experience volatility if domestic policies are adjusted, with a focus on mid to long-term credit bonds for investment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks or opportunities when there is a discrepancy between personal expectations and market conditions, rather than making excuses for oneself. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan after 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - The central bank will conduct a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding for a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on July 15 [1] - The money market showed mixed results, with the DR001 rate around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.54% [1] Group 2: Financial Data - Strong import and export data were reported, contributing to a bullish stock market, while primary issuance remained weak [2] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.666% and fluctuated weakly, reaching a high of 1.6775% before settling back to 1.6666% [3] - The central bank's statement regarding "small and medium banks buying bonds" was perceived as a stabilizing measure [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article highlights a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a notable focus on the central bank's communications and their implications for market stability [4] - The article also references a shift in market interest, comparing the rising popularity of certain investment opportunities to trends in educational admissions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, risk appetite has rebounded, but in the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. Although the recent trend of treasury bonds is relatively weak, the logic of activities like "transfer trade" is not sustainable. The long - term fundamental situation remains unchanged. Once risk appetite starts to decline and there are incremental positive factors, the bond market will strengthen non - linearly. Therefore, it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [2][14][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 7th to July 13th, treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. On Monday, with a calm market news and slightly tightened funding, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and the 30Y interest rate rose slightly due to the news of ultra - long special treasury bond issuance. On Tuesday, as trade conflict intensity was within market expectations, rising certificate of deposit (CD) rates and a strong stock market led to an oscillating decline in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, the stock market weakened while long - term treasury bond futures strengthened, and the short - term ones were relatively weak with a flattening yield curve. On Thursday, the market sentiment improved marginally in the morning but then the stock market soared, causing the bond market to weaken. In the afternoon, the expectation of real - estate stabilizing policies led to a plunge in treasury bond futures. On Friday, with balanced funding, the bond market fluctuated with the stock market. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market is still difficult to strengthen next week. With the arrival of the tax period, the funding will marginally tighten, and the expected strong economic data in June and high risk appetite will suppress the bond market. However, in the long - run, it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Strategies include holding long positions, paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in treasury bond futures, and stopping profit on the strategy of steepening the yield curve first and then looking for new opportunities [2][14][15][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - rate bonds were issued with a total issuance of 69 billion yuan and a net financing of 46.2369 billion yuan, up 17.6781 billion and 8.579 billion yuan respectively from last week. 45 local government bonds were issued with a total issuance of 23.179 billion yuan and a net financing of 11.0229 billion yuan, up 15.9651 billion and 8.858 billion yuan respectively. 454 CDs were issued with a total issuance of 42.713 billion yuan and a net financing of - 8.339 billion yuan, up 18.416 billion and down 8.057 billion yuan respectively [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 11th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.53%, 1.66%, and 1.87% respectively, up 4.28, 3.41, 2.05, and 1.95 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, and 1.71% respectively, up 5.03, 4.51, and 3.13 basis points from last weekend [30] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 38,238, 66,066, 72,274, and 98,226 lots respectively, up 7,022, 7,450, 1,993, and 16,442 lots from last weekend. The open interests were 124,636, 202,629, 244,640, and 150,356 lots respectively, with changes of - 673, + 9,156, + 4,737, and + 6,317 lots from last weekend [38][43] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. With balanced and loose funding, the basis of futures oscillated narrowly. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current CD rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, resulting in relatively few positive arbitrage opportunities [48] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 11th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures between the 2509 and 2512 contracts were - 0.100, - 0.105, - 0.040, and + 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.024, - 0.020, + 0.045, and + 0.050 yuan from last weekend. The far - term contracts adjusted more this week [53] 3.4 Weekly Observation of Funding - The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations this week. As of July 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.47%, 1.33%, and 1.48% respectively, up 0.86, 0.58, 2.80, and 5.20 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.21 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.57%, slightly lower than last week [57][60][63] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose slightly. As of July 11th, the US dollar index rose 0.91% to 97.8731 from last weekend, the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.43%, up 8 basis points from last weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 276.7 basis points [67] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of July 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,612.73, 6,281.86, and 1,679.68 points respectively, up 55.22, 65.52, and 29.21 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices also rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits at 20.60, 4.42, and 7.45 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.02, 0.08, and 0.15 yuan/kg from last weekend [70] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [71]

Group 1 - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs raised a total of 289.88 billion yuan in just one day, with several fund companies preparing for a second batch [1] - The effective subscription confirmation ratios for the ETFs from FuGuo and Bosera reached 96.58% and 99.27% respectively, indicating strong market interest [1] - The ETFs are scheduled to be listed on July 17, and multiple fund companies are actively participating in the development of bond ETFs [1] Group 2 - The Trading Association has initiated self-regulatory investigations into six lead underwriters due to concerns over underwriting fees related to a capital bond project [2] - The investigation is based on the self-regulatory rules of the interbank bond market, and any violations may lead to self-regulatory actions [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 847 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 507 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - Gansu Province has established a 100 billion yuan emergency revolving fund to support key enterprises in repaying maturing debts [6] - The fund is structured to leverage 20 billion yuan from provincial finances with an additional 80 billion yuan from bank financing, aimed at mitigating high-risk hidden debts [6] Group 5 - Liaoning Province plans to issue special new bonds totaling 202.62 billion yuan, with specific projects outlined for infrastructure development [7] - The bonds will be issued in multiple phases, with the first phase targeting various infrastructure projects [7] Group 6 - The Henan Transportation Investment Group successfully issued 10 billion yuan in corporate bonds at an interest rate of 2.12%, with funds allocated for operational expenditures and debt repayment [8] - The bonds are set to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange starting July 14 [8] Group 7 - The Zhoukou City Ziyuan Sci-Tech Industry Development Group has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to issue 7 billion yuan in bonds to support small and micro enterprises [9] Group 8 - Zhongyuan Expressway has been authorized to register a total of 60 billion yuan in corporate bonds, including 20 billion yuan in public bonds and 40 billion yuan in renewable bonds [10] Group 9 - The Trading Association has reduced and canceled a total of 34.8 billion yuan in debt financing tool quotas across six companies [11][12] Group 10 - The market sentiment indicates that the current negative factors affecting the bond market are primarily based on expectations rather than actual events, with a focus on potential policy changes [16] - The bond market remains in a state of adjustment, with the central bank's reverse repos providing some stability [16]

Group 1 - The central bank has adopted a supportive monetary policy since June, leading to a significant decline in funding rates, with overnight funding rates (DR001) remaining around 1.3%, providing strong support for the bond market [1][5][6] - The bond market has shown a low volatility and narrow fluctuation pattern since July, with the key to breaking this pattern lying in the implementation of a loose monetary policy [1][2] - The yield spread between key and non-key term government bonds has been significantly compressed, indicating cautious market sentiment, with the 50-year and 30-year bond spread narrowing from nearly 15 basis points to less than 9 basis points [2][3] Group 2 - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted focus from "risk prevention" to "stabilizing growth," with a low probability of new incremental monetary policy measures in the short term [3][5] - Government bond issuance has accelerated this year, with a total issuance of 7.62 trillion yuan by the end of June, which is a significant increase compared to the previous year [3][4] - The domestic economy is experiencing a weak recovery, with a strong performance in consumption but continued weakness in investment, particularly in the real estate sector [4][5] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term, with the probability of unexpected policy measures being low, while liquidity remains supportive for the bond market [5][6] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to reach a low point of around 1.5% this year, suggesting potential entry points for investors if further adjustments occur in the bond market [6]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 国债期货日报 2025/7/10 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.845 | -0.16% T主力成交量 | 77570 | 3359↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.990 | -0.14% TF主力成交量 | 65698 | 251↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.414 | -0.04% TS主力成交量 | 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the investment strategies and adjustments made by various fund managers in response to the A-share market's structural opportunities during the second quarter [1][3] - Tongtai Fund's Tongtai Vision Mixed Fund achieved a remarkable net value growth of 50% in the first half of the year and 73.43% over the past year, focusing on hard technology sectors such as biomedicine, new energy materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The Tongtai Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund made significant adjustments in its portfolio, shifting its focus back to the humanoid robot sector after a substantial price correction, indicating the fund manager's judgment on the sector's recovery potential [1] Group 2 - The bond market showed contrasting trends, with several popular bond funds from Debang Fund experiencing significant growth in scale, such as the Debang Short Bond Fund increasing from 2.8 billion to 6.371 billion, a growth of 128% [3] - Debang Fund's investment strategy in the second quarter involved a combination of coupon assets and volatile assets, primarily focusing on high-quality city investment bonds while also incorporating government bonds and high-rated treasury bills [3] - The fund managers expressed a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year, driven by favorable fundamentals and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a preference for longer-duration bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness due to a lack of downward pressure on short-term funding rates and the strength of the A-share market, leading to a slight increase in yields on major interbank bonds and a decline in government bond futures [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22% at 120.920, the 10-year main contract down 0.08% at 109.020, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 106.135, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% at 102.466 [2] - Major interbank bond yields increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.8605%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.7220%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.6430% [2] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 690 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan for the day, as 1,310 billion yuan in reverse repos matured [4] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.312%, the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.455%, and the 1-month rate down 1.1 basis points to 1.546%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that while there is a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, the overall trading congestion has decreased compared to June, although institutions maintain a high duration preference [5] - Guosheng Fixed Income pointed out that the current 50-30 year bond yield spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression, but also minimal adjustment pressure [5] - Changjiang Fixed Income suggested that the credit bond market is driven by ample liquidity and incremental funds, recommending investors to focus on opportunities in 5-year AA+ credit bonds while controlling risk levels [5]