【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 接连调整几天之后，今天，国际黄金价格突然上涨。 截至7月1日17点发稿时，伦敦现货黄金日内涨幅涨超1%，接近3340美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨1.3%，站上3350美元/盎司。 | 17:00 | | "l ? □ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 A | COMEX黄金 | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | 3350.6 | 昨结 3307.7 总手 | | 5.40 | | +42.9 | +1.30% / 1 3315.7 现手 | | | | 最高价 | 3354.3 持 仓 31.86万 外 盘 | | 2.3 | | 最低价 | 3313.7 壇 仓 内 壹 1455 | | 3.11 | | 分时 | 五日 周K | | 日名 | | 叠加 | 均价:3336.3 | | | | 3354.3 ... | ---------------------- | | 3350.9 3350.7 | | | | 4:44 | 3351.1 | | AM | | 4:44 | 3351.2 | | 3307.7 | 0.00% ...

2025年7月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS补涨，船司挺价难度仍较高，空单可考虑部分止盈，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2123.24点，较上期上涨9.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1366.47点，较上期下跌1.13% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1619.19点，较上期下跌22.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1442.95点，较上期上涨11.03% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1553.68点，较上期下跌2.04%% | | 6月27日 | 6月27日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1861.51点，较上期下跌8.08点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1369.34点，较上期上涨2.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2030USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.63% | | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...

围绕伊朗核问题，信任的裂痕正进一步加深。在脆弱的停火阴影下，伊朗坚持要求美国先行展现诚意才 考虑重返谈判桌，而美国则再次发出军事打击的威胁。专家认为，双方要价水涨船高，重启核谈判之路 显得愈发崎岖。缺乏实质约束的当前停火状态异常脆弱，不排除未来发生一场新的冲突。 专家认为，伊朗作为核不扩散条约签约国，有权从事民用核能开发。同时多年来，伊朗一直坚持伊核谈 判三大核心原则，即伊朗持续进行铀浓缩、美国解除制裁，伊朗承诺不发展核武器。不过，随着此次美 国军事打击伊朗，美国伊朗双方重启核问题谈判难度增大。 专家认为，双方要价水涨船高，重启核谈判之路显得愈发崎岖。缺乏实质约束的当前停火状态异常脆 弱，不排除未来发生一场新的冲突。 中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所副所长 秦天：我觉得美国再次对伊朗采取军事行动的可能性真实 存在，不过也不应夸大。特朗普曾表态，若伊朗重新恢复铀浓缩计划且达到武器级水平，美国必然会空 袭其核设施，但这一说法是有前提条件的。当前整体态势依旧十分危险，此前12天战争的停火极为脆 弱，它主要靠特朗普在社交媒体上的一番话促成，既缺乏文本机制，也没有担保机制，后续落实也缺少 相应保障，停火的可持续性普遍受 ...

Conflict Situation - The leader of the Luhansk region stated that Russian forces have gained control over the entire area [1] - Russia claims that the Ukrainian military used "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to attack the center of Donetsk city, resulting in one death [1] - According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia has approximately 50,000 troops around the northern Ukrainian capital of Sumy, which is about three times the number of Ukrainian defenders, putting Ukraine at a disadvantage [1] Negotiation Situation - The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it has decided to impose restrictions on 15 media outlets from EU countries [2] - U.S. President Trump indicated that due to low oil prices, a ceasefire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [2] Other Developments - The Ukrainian Prime Minister reported that Ukraine has received $1.7 billion in aid from Canada [3] - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for another six months until January 31, 2026 [3] - EU Commission Vice President Sefcovic stated that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement regarding the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of gold prices dropping to 600 CNY per gram is low, requiring a multi-faceted analysis of various influencing factors [1][3]. Short-term Possibility Analysis (Within 1 Year) - Strong support levels currently restrict price declines, with historical lows indicating a minimum of 620 CNY per gram in early 2025, while current international gold prices suggest a domestic base price of approximately 768 CNY per gram [1]. - If international gold prices fall below 3200 USD per ounce (approximately 760 CNY per gram), a potential drop to 3000 USD (around 700 CNY) could occur, but reaching 600 CNY would necessitate prices falling below 2400 USD, which exceeds current institutional forecasts [1]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks are projected to purchase over 1,141 tons of gold in 2024, with the Chinese central bank increasing its holdings for 18 consecutive months, providing long-term price support [2]. Necessary Conditions for Price Drop - A combination of multiple adverse conditions would need to occur for prices to approach 600 CNY, with the probability assessed to be below 10% according to mainstream institutional views [3]. Mid-term Pressure Range - The realistic price range is expected to be between 700-750 CNY, influenced by consumer psychology, with many consumers viewing 600-700 CNY as a psychological buying point [4]. - Increased customer traffic at gold shops in Hangzhou at the 772 CNY level indicates an upward shift in actual support levels [4]. Cost Constraints - The mining cost of gold is estimated to be around 1200-1400 USD per ounce (approximately 500-550 CNY per gram), and sustained prices below this level could lead to production cuts by mining companies, thereby correcting supply and demand [5]. Factors Influencing the 600 CNY Target - The soaring US dollar index (over 120) is suppressing gold prices below 2500 USD, with the current index at 104 and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6]. - A withdrawal of funds from global risk assets into gold is occurring amidst concerns of economic recession, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [6]. - Technical breakdowns and panic selling could trigger programmed sell-offs, although gold prices are currently holding at the 3250 USD support level [6]. Practical Recommendations for Consumers - For personal use, purchasing gold in the 700-750 CNY range is advisable, as the premium for craftsmanship has decreased [7]. - For asset allocation, a dollar-cost averaging strategy in gold ETFs is recommended, particularly if prices drop to 700 CNY [7]. - For those holding gold, it is suggested to maintain positions until 2026, as forecasts predict a rise to 3700 USD per ounce [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has resulted in significant casualties, with Iran reporting 935 deaths, including 38 children and 102 women, since the escalation began on June 13 [1] Group 1: Casualties and Impact - The conflict has led to a total of 935 fatalities in Iran, highlighting the severe human cost of the hostilities [1] - Among the casualties, there are 38 children and 102 women, indicating the impact on vulnerable populations [1] Group 2: Military Actions - Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes across multiple locations in Iran since June 13, escalating the conflict [1] - In retaliation, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone attacks targeting various sites within Israel [1] Group 3: Ceasefire Agreement - A ceasefire agreement was announced by both Iran and Israel through different channels on June 24, suggesting a temporary halt to hostilities [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 合成橡胶成本定价逻辑偏强，关注供给端扰动与去库进度 | 投资观点： | 短期偏弱震荡，等待下半年反弹机会 | 合成橡胶（BR） | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-6-30 | 半年报告 | ⚫ 行情回顾 上半年 BR 期货价格重心偏低，整体波动性减弱。4 月受中美关税升 级及丁二烯供给过剩拖累，价格跌破 12000 元/吨。5 月中因中美关税缓和 预期及恒力装置故障导致丁二烯短缺预期，价格短暂冲高。随后基本面弱 势主导，价格重回底部震荡。近期因地缘冲突推涨原油带动 BR 小幅上 行，但涨幅有限，走势仍与天胶高度相关。 单边：短期盘面偏弱震荡运行，建议投资者观望； 套利：关注多 BR 空 NR/RU 价差回归。 ⚫ 风险提示 地缘冲突升级、关税政策影响、轮胎出口超预期回暖、天然橡胶主 产区极端天气导致价差逻辑反转。 ⚫ 原料端：产油国增产持续推进，地缘局势导致盘面短期冲高上行 原油： 上半年震荡下行，主因 OPEC+持续增产至 7 月及供需宽松预 期强化。短期地缘冲突推高波动，但中长期宽松格局未改。 丁二烯： 上半年价格波动大 ...