- The report tracks various quantitative factors across equity, commodity, options, and convertible bond markets, providing insights into market trends and factor performance during the week of December 15-19, 2025[3][9][24] - **Equity Market Factors**: - **Market Style**: The market showed a slight preference for large-cap and value styles, reversing the trend from the previous week[10][12] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and rotation speed increased, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased. Concentration in the top 100 stocks remained stable, and the top 5 industries saw a slight decline in transaction concentration[10][12] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate continued to decline[11][12] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - **Trend Strength**: All sectors except the black sector showed an increase in trend strength[24][29] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased in the precious metals and agricultural sectors but increased in other sectors[24][29] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined in the energy and agricultural sectors but slightly improved in other sectors[24][29] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased in the energy and black sectors but decreased in other sectors[24][29] - **Options Market Factors**: - Implied volatility for both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels. The skew of call and put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while the skew of put options for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating risk release in large-cap stocks and risk accumulation in small-cap stocks[32][36] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - The market stabilized and recovered, with transaction volume exceeding the median level of the past year. The premium rate for bonds priced at 100 yuan reached a new annual high, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds continued to decline[34][38][40]

市场震荡拉升，沪指高开高走收出六连阳，深成指涨近1%。 市场热点轮动较快，全市场超4100只个股上涨。 盘面上，商业航天概念持续爆发，2 0余只成分股涨停， 算力硬件延续强势，液冷、PCB等细分表现亮眼。 当前A股增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿较强烈， 后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢跑，逢低布 局。 而从历史经验显示，全年或四季度涨幅靠前板块在当年末次年初期间超额收益大概率回落，相反，涨幅靠后板块则有补涨需求。 短期政策催化+安全边际驱动下，内需板块具备足够赔率吸引力，且胜率在上升，叠加岁末年初行业配置规律、人民币汇率趋势 和提振内需政策取向，部分内需板块或具备一定持续性，重视程度上移。 重点关注：保险、券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源等。 02北美AI缺电信号明确 北美整体电力缺口大，AIDC需求增长进一步加剧缺口，传统快速补能受限， AIDC配储具备经济性且交付快，占比有望提升。 中国银河证券电新团队认为，假设美国AIDC功耗从2025年10GW提升至2 02 8年22GW，AIDC配储需求按2 0%容量、4h系统测 算，则北美AIDC配储需求约从 ...

Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

2025 年 12 月 24 日 黄金、白银、铂、钯、铜期货将创下上市以来新高 铂、 钯、白银、镍、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2025 年 12 月 23 日期货主力合约行 情走势大概率如下： | 期 | 货 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | | IF2603 | 偏弱震荡 | 4583 和 4605 点 | 4 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 每日投资策略 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,774 | -0.11 | 28.49 | | 恒生国企 | 8,914 | -0.29 | 22.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,489 | -0.69 | 22.85 | | 上证综指 | 3,920 | 0.07 | 16.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,492 | -0.02 | 27.32 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,205 | 0.41 | 49.65 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,442 | 0.16 | 13.86 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,910 | 0.46 | 17.48 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,562 | 0.57 | 22.01 | | 德国 DAX | 24,340 | 0.23 | 22.26 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced increased volatility since the fourth quarter, with investors speculating on the potential for a "Christmas rally" similar to the A-share "spring rally" [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the "Christmas rally" narrative may drive a rebound from oversold conditions, its investment guidance may be limited due to changing market dynamics and the predominance of passive over active funds [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices have shown fluctuations, with a recent net inflow of over 6 billion HKD from southbound funds, totaling more than 240 billion HKD since the fourth quarter [2] Group 2 - The current market sentiment indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a left-side layout phase, with strong expectations for an early spring rally, but supply and demand pressures remain at year-end [3] - Analysts believe that the market's basic fundamentals are expected to improve, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and a potential shift in liquidity as the Federal Reserve's policies evolve [3][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to catalyze growth in emerging industries such as solid-state batteries, brain-computer interfaces, and quantum technology, which could lead to a sustainable upward trend in revenue and profits for Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on upstream resources in the power chain, travel chain leaders, and domestic AI leaders, with an emphasis on sectors that may benefit from policy developments and economic recovery [4][5] - Long-term investment strategies should consider technology sectors, particularly AI and consumer electronics, as well as healthcare, resources benefiting from inflation expectations, and undervalued consumer staples [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced increased volatility in the fourth quarter, with investors speculating on the potential for a "Christmas rally" similar to the "spring market" in A-shares [1][2] - Despite the potential for a rebound narrative, the actual investment guidance may be limited, as the market is still under supply and demand pressure, and the right-side turning point remains unclear [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices have shown signs of fluctuation, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 240 billion HKD in the fourth quarter, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The market is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment and a potential easing of overseas liquidity, which could enhance risk appetite and stabilize the Hong Kong stock market [3][4] - Key sectors for investment include upstream resources in the power chain, travel-related stocks, and leading domestic AI companies, which are seen as having significant layout value [1][4][5] - Emerging industries such as solid-state batteries, brain-computer interfaces, and biotechnology are anticipated to gain momentum, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improving macroeconomic conditions [4][5]

01 12月22日，多只A500ETF"吸金"，在巨量资金持续涌入的背景下，多只A500ETF规模创历史新高。 02 12月23日，锂电概念震荡走高，全市场涨幅前十的ETF均为电池相关ETF。 03 电池相关ETF涨幅居前 12月23日，锂电概念震荡走高，全市场涨幅前十的ETF均为电池相关ETF。 | 代码 | 名称 | 当日涨跌幅 (%) | 当日IOPV溢折率 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561160.SH | 锂电池ETF | 2.49 | 0.17 | | 561910.SH | 电池ETF | 2.37 | 0.07 | | 159755.SZ | 电池ETF | 2.33 | 0.03 | | 159775.SZ | 电池ETF基金 | 2.33 | 0.08 | | 159840.SZ | 锂电池ETF | 2.30 | 0.17 | | 159767.SZ | 电池龙头ETF | 2.26 | 0.00 | | 159757.SZ | 电池ETF景顺 | 2.22 | 0.01 | | 562880 SH | 电池ETF嘉实 | 2.20 | -0.01 ...

国信证券表示，根据以往经验来看，春季行情通常集中于上年12月至次年4月，且往往在春节前10–15个 交易日启动。而今年，在美联储如期降息、人民币汇率企稳等多重利好共振下，2026年春季行情或已提 前启动。板块配置方面，市场共识与分歧并存，但科技成长、消费复苏、周期修复三大方向的关注度较 高。与此同时，券商、保险等大金融板块亦获得市场认可，或迎来不容小觑的"跨年攻势"。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 证券ETF（159841）密切跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数聚焦了A股的大市值证券龙头，而且既有 传统证券龙头，也有金融科技龙头。证券ETF（159841）同时配置场外证券ETF联接基金（A： 008590，C：008591）。 消息面来看，据央视新闻，万得数据显示，截至12月19日，全市场ETF规模达5.78万亿元，年内增长超 2万亿元，增速超过53%。增长节奏也很惊人，ETF规模今年短短4个月就从4万亿跃升至5万亿，而此前 从0到1万亿用了整整14年。 中银证券表示，继续看好券商板块估值向上空间。监管持续强化金融功能发挥重要性，勾勒2026年资本 市场改革与行业高质量发展路径，在证券行业景气度上升背景下板块 ...

12月23日，有色金属板块继续冲锋，热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）涨超1.7%，再创该ETF 上市以来历史新高。截至目前，有色ETF华宝（159876）跟踪的中证有色指数成功站上3000点，再刷近 十年新高。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 展望后市，中金公司认为，有色金属和贵金属将成为2026年上涨趋势的"第一梯队"。高盛、摩根大通和 美国银行均认为，黄金价格有望在2026年挑战5000美元/盎司的历史新高，央行购金成为支撑金价的最 重要因素。花旗认为，在基本面和宏观背景逐步向好等多重看涨因素的支撑下，铜价将在2026年持续上 行。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。截至12月2 ...