C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 研究品种：天然橡胶 成文日期：20250623 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 图片来源：文华财经 wh6 09 橡胶2601 ru2601 4.25 MA40 15131.38 MA60 15566.42 14715 步四 14710 14705 14700 费一 4 11 11 1 14695 st- 14690 14685 室二 14680 10 买四 14675 买五 14670 16270 总委 14705 d 2 14680 14690 | 涨跌 15/0.319 最新 现手 1 速涨 0.00% 11964 开盘 環 持仓 42005 最高 177 日增 214 最低 14630 402 结算价 外盘 比例 53.5% 昨收 14790 内盘 5562 昨结 14735 比例 46.5% 涨停 15910 杠杆 -- | 跌停 13555 时间 价位 现手 用率 22:59:51 14690 -1 双斗 22:59:55 14690 o 双 runni 22:59:55 14690 22:59:5 ...

机构分析指出，工业硅长期供需矛盾并未得到根本性缓解，库存压力下或将长期压制多晶硅上行空间， 今日的强势拉涨是否仅是"死猫跳"？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

期货热点追踪 毋庸对豆粕急跌感到担忧？机构认为下方的关键支撑就在……点击了解。 相关链接 ...

多头小心！马棕油这波上涨可能只是反弹，后市大概率......点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月26日 目 录 1 每日观点 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为785元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为666.12元/吨，再生铝 开工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3972元/吨，丰水 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给回升至高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求 一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1195元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1166元/吨，基差为29元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存172.67万吨，较前一周增加2.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张 ...

伊以冲突带来的影响逐步减小，化工品价格波动逐步回归基本面，玻璃、纯碱周三小幅走高，后市能否 保持坚挺？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

期货热点追踪 伊以再次打起来了？！原油对焦煤的扰动或未结束，焦煤、焦炭期货夜盘是否有走高可能？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 特朗普宣布停火，铜为何反应平淡？价格的决定因素或将是…… 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].